hasilp89

Yep that’s the guy. Has done well with Leonardo as well. I like him a lot as well. Think swatch might be too hard though. Will be rooting for him though.9

not sure if you saw but i believe Steven Wood got a board seat at Swatch and is going to start pushing for change. Seems like it will be tough, from what i recall mgmt there is not interested in shareholders. But will be interesting to watch.

@gfp is!

@gfp 20 year at 5%+, you a buyer?

I imagine you (and the rest of us mortals) could get margin called by our broker tomorrow though. Buffett’s got the capital for decades. Only something he could do.

Fidelity has a nice search function for it. Copied the Cusip into ibkr. following you into this one for a bit of fun (eyes wide open of course)

don’t these hit the mark?

@Milu cheers, yeah so to me it read like Buffett believed ongoing deficits would come home to roost. Given -US productivity, investment coming back in and dollar reserve status that never happened. But the white mfg class in America got hollowed out, angry, and went populist. To @Parsads post right above they didn’t care about status quo global order. Trump fed into it, a lollapaloza of psychological forces at play also brought in the other voter bases he got elected and voila. i think Buffetts strategy was different in that it had a credit system that could be traded, elegant In theory but likely impractical.

Bumping, zero engagement here, was the Buffett article shared discussed already? Or do folks think it is just dated and irrelevant? Imagine someone smarter than me would have some thoughts

I’m trying to make sense of both sides of the argument and see merits in both viewpoints @gfp (why would we take a step back giving American workers menial jobs) and @cubsfan (we shouldn’t trade away the farm, we need to produce something of value). I’m sure many here have read Buffett’s article in fortune on the trade deficit - I hadn’t in a long while and just re-read it. It’s worth a read and I’m curious as to what he thinks of the topic today. While I’m sure he doesn’t believe in the current tactics to reduce the trade deficit, his views in the article make it pretty clear that running a large trade deficit will be a negative over time - he even has a family budget analogy where describes the problem as one generation passing down IOUs to the next. (@gfp I guess he misses the fact that the family can not great money by spending and issuing new debt on demand which the US gvt can do? - to which I would counter that when the budget deficit and stock of debt to GDP becomes to large doesn’t this become harder for the US gvt to do?) Anyway I’m curious what folks think of the article and how it relates to today. Of course his worst fears did not come true (America became more productive with its extra time not working in the textile mill? Reserve currency status and our willingness to protect allies gave us a free ride? Our gdp grew at a fast enough rate that the amount of our wealth being exported never became a serious issue?) I’ll be the first to say I’m not sure. But I sure would like to know. Will throw out the bat signal to @wabuffo as we may benefit from his wisdom. https://faculty.washington.edu/ss1110/IF/Buffett Fortune 2003 (6).pdf

I know. The original post referenced being bullish oil prices though.

I agree with you in areas but some push back - are the top 10% actually financially hurting even after the dramatic pull back in stock prices? Interest rates going to 5% didn’t do them in? Markets are back to levels of last May, even if the propensity to spend amongst the top 10% is diminished their safety net is far from gone. - there will be some psychology and consistency/confirmation bias at play. No matter how dumb the tariffs sound or how much money is lost, if you voted for him the first thing you will do is seek some sort of rationale for why the policy makes sense (even if you’ve lost a ton of money in they last week) (see ackman) - so if the rich aren’t truly hurting, they are ok with the ST pain because they voted for him and they don’t want to change their minds - what actually happens?

I don’t speak Greek.

Wouldn't buying call options make more sense then? 1000 things could go wrong with the companies you own.

Thanks, that’s along the line I was thinking, will have to look it up.

Two points that I thought some depth of discussion on was warranted (but the insufferable hosts just decided to chime in and infuse their thoughts) - would be curious on folks thoughts. 1. SWF - Interesting analogy to Australia's superannuation fund. But isn't the issue that the US runs a budget and trade deficit - we don't have extra cash for a SWF - every nation that has one has a budget/trade surplus. Is it realistic that tariffs can fund it permanently? 2. That the Gvt should have borrowed more longer dated debt is constantly parroted around. I never see much push back on this, but there have to be reasons why this did not happen. With inflation around the corner would there have been real buyers? If there was a lot of issuance wouldn't it be massively underwater now - impacting pensions plans and other asset sensitive investors? The hikes we did have, on the assets banks did hold caused some failures - if there were a bunch of 10- year treasury's at 1% wouldn't there be some carnage?

38% YTD nice call @Dinar

Bill, if deficit spending were to drop (big if, but say DOGE + higher tax receipts gets us to a balanced budget) economy was growing ok would you expect yields to drop based no need for net new issuance of treasuries (although in that case you'd think the treasury might refund with more notes than bills). I know its a weird hypothetical but trying to see if my understanding of how things work (I'm half way through Wray) is directionally correct.

wasn't the apple sale pretty much announced at the AGM and then followed up on. Everything else aside from BAC is peanuts. Net change aside from Apple and BAC is meaningless.

interesting idea thanks for sharing.

I bought vornado early in 2023 and added more on the way down, have sold a lot of it but still own some. To me it was quality real estate, decent debt structure and penn. slg has also done well plenty of others. nlop was probably the fattest pitch over the last few years but I whiffed.

April 2023 was a good time for it.

Thanks will have to take a look

Have you looked at sigma-roc / any thoughts?

Zeg and Glv