hasilp89

thanks for sharing the response.

@petec you've slowly converted me on this one. negative EV. yes please.

would assume so, believe he was the one behind StoneCo.

GOED warrants and some eDreams.

Appreciate the humility. But your analysis and insight is significantly better than anyone else’s ever read. And I ignorantly waste a lot of time trying to understand what the hell is going on.

Gregmal you should reconsider Twitter. I thought it was a garbage / waste of time but have come to appreciate it for idea gen and for learning/connecting with people who much smarter than me (much like this website). A form of scuttlebutt in a way. Takes some time to follow the right folks and not get caught in politics (unless that’s what you want) I saw the rant on Wyden and agree with the thoughts. Interesting to me that he forged his own path despite very likely having the opportunity to hobnob given his dads political standing.

i like API Group - ticker APG. He talked about it in a G&D newsletter.

$1 Logic: I have no clue what it is worth (sorry i couldn't help myself).

Barron’s piece on inflation with some quotes from irv Blumkin on the inflation he is seeing. Inflation Is Here and Hotter Than It Looks. Why It’s Time to Worry. https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-is-here-and-rising-51621025783?st=a8faigcwutcmpbl Have been seeing a lot of the same pressures in my business, primarily with labor - more than a 4% CPI print would indicate. We operate in SC which recently stopped federal unemployment to help businesses. Will be interesting to see if that eases wage and hiring pressure. if not seems more likely to me that this won’t be transitory like the fed thinks and rates will have to go up.

Thanks @wabuffo I saw the lower provision. I assumed it was stimme checks and didn’t read that footnote on different methodology. Not sure I can say this with certainity. Will watch from the sidelines for now.

Pretty much what I thought as well. . From reading and listening to interviews though: -The people involved make me wonder if they are setting up to be something more than a GPLDUIFFL (Grubby payday lender dressed up in flashy fintech livery ). I wouldn't think Joe Moglia (well respected coach and CEO of TDameritrade) and Kyle Cerminara would want to get involved with something un-reputable. Additionally I've listened to a number of interviews with the CEO. Didn't come across as the kind of guy who wanted to be remembered as a GPLDUIFFL. -NPS scores (if real) are pretty phenomenal. They claim to have very happy customers which i wouldn't think would be the case for a typical loan shark. -Have begun the move into payroll deduction lending (30% rates) -Launching a credit card. If this demographic can't get loans from a WF/BOFA (and it seems like there are unfortunately a lot of them in the US) isn't a transparent, regulated, bank partnering platform a good market solution? Especially if consumers are happy with them.

Passed the senate and looks likely to pass the house and be signed. Still unclear to me what impact it will have on these guys. Would assume it makes their business more difficult as they navigate regulations state by state. Makes transitioning to other products even more neccesary? This is a great question. The optimistic take after listening to the CEO is that they don't expect or want this business to be an installment loan business in 10 years. They genuinely care about customers and want to transition the business over time. Their target demographic is huge (interesting to me that people who bank/deposit with a WF/BOFA can't get a loan from them - i'd assume they'd start banking with the guy that does give them a loan and from there do a lot more - wait are we talking about the WF cross sell here ). There are a lot of banking/financial services that can be sold to them. Being public and having skilled professionals on board with you is the right way to do that. The Skeptical take - they know they can't lend like this forever without the regulatory hammer coming down - being in the public markets gives them the best exit possible with current SPAC froth. @wabuffo Have you ever looked at this? Interested to hear your taken given your financial services / banking expertise.

+1 robinhood is trying to control the narrative with this response. The fact that they need to try and do this is indicative of what they are about.

I’ve listened to a few interesting podcasts on blockchain technology and they got me thinking. I’m not a tech person so am stepping outside of my zone here. I find the use cases for these decentralized networks quite interesting and reasonable. Am I understanding something like ethereum correctly when I say it is an open source network where transactions happen with no central body that can change the rules of how it works? how you value something like that. Yes it doesn’t produce cash flows but the network itself has value if people can use it for personal and business needs and therefore the currency attached to it must have some value. if you would expect the usage on said network to increase nonlinearly over the next 10 years would you not also expect the value of the currency to do so as well? then I’m asking what is the best network - why won’t millions be created - well there would be typical network effects and first mover advantages so the early ones that scale and work well should gain traction? Interested to hear from someone who actually understands this stuff.

My question to you on that is what will those people trust more? Doesn’t it go back to the point wabuffo made up thread and reposted below. Crypto currencies can’t compete with this. No doubt China is trying to develop this same level of influence by building bridges in Africa and Pakistan but will it work?

Plain talk - ken iverson - nucor - decentralized operations brings out the best in people

Ditto that below is some of the technical stuff - but for RE you have to know your market - driving/visiting markets and paying attention to what's going on is priceless. I also use Business Journals (Charlotte Business Journal, Nashville Business Journal) to keep a pulse on what is being developed in markets i'm interested in etc. would recommend filings and transcripts, most REITS publish very detailed supplemental financials with detailed breakdowns by property. For NNN space read investor letters by Chris Volk for STOR - they are very informative I read this while back (real estate game) - i don't believe i finished it (telling) but it does have some good stuff in there. Believe the author was associated with Seth Klarman at some point in the based - https://www.amazon.com/Real-Estate-Game-Intelligent-Decisionmaking/dp/068485550X/ref=asc_df_068485550X/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=312025907421&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=4286894923406073717&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9009919&hvtargid=pla-497934778277&psc=1

Good exercise. BRK & DPZ. Would probably go with APG for #3.

Not sure what you mean by different a perception of morals? I don’t think the definition of how to treat a business partner properly has/will/should ever change. Buffet took downside risk in the BPL days and today looses money pari passu to me. This is not the same for Chamath. Follow the incentives and don’t pretend they don’t impact what Chamath does and how he may treat his partners at any point (didn’t he bail on Virgin?) His incentive is to price SPAC deals so he gets his promote. Be weary of anything else’s he may say. While he may sound like Buffett to you he sure as heck doesn’t act like him IMO. Maybe some downside for his promote or taking it in conjunction with stock gains (more akin to BPLs hurdle or how Franklin does his SPACs). “ Well you can say, “Everybody knows that.” Well I think I’ve been in the top 5% of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power of incentives, and all my life I’ve underestimated it. And never a year passes but I get some surprise that pushes my limit a little farther.” -Munger If he’s underestimating it, we sure as hell are.

Anyone well informed on this or know anyone in Brazil. This WSJ article makes it seem like it is impacting younger folks and maybe more deadly. However it seems somewhat anecdotal and unclear if it is just due to lack of vaccination and premature reopening. Don’t want to overreact but also don’t want to just brush it off. https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-rages-in-brazil-posing-global-risk-11616845889?st=txvn0obeawqkvpf&reflink=article_copyURL_share

arski - i'm not sure if i'm getting your question but doesn't it just depend on the business whether or not they require additional capital invested? some do, some don't, some are inbetween. taking a stab at it below. -top of the chain - those that don't have to invest to stay alive and have pricing power - i think of a true royalty business like hilton - they don't have to invest in anything to build new hotels or have existing hotels stay up to date, their G&A will go up, but if inflation increase room rates and their royalty rate remains the same (it would) then their revenues go up. -middle of the chain - they have pricing power but have capital needs to either grow or stay current - maybe see's - they can double prices but they will have to invest for more capacity, buy new equipment when the old equipment expires - bottom of the chain - they don't have pricing power and are capital intensive - maybe auto manufacturers - i guess they would have some power to increase prices but assume generally consumers have options with keeping their current car longer delaying purchases etc and of course they have large capital requirements with new plants etc. not sure if that is where you were going or if those examples are that great - but generally where my mind was going with this.

Is that an intentional byproduct of fed policy? Almost acts like negative interest rates right - incentivizes spending/investing money?

Trying to keep up here and appreciate the insights (especially the double entry thought process) Two questions 1) can you clarify who exactly is sitting on too many treasuries and will have to reduce if debt ceiling is not extended. I assumed the fed but was not clear - if so does that unwinding of their balance sheet not cause issues or will banks buy them back and then that cash sits with the fed as reserves (trying to think of it double entry!) 2) with the comment about reserves going up in point b) wouldnt there be an impact on banks profitability/performance (I was thinking their roa/roe would come down but may just be thinking about this all completely wrong based on answer to first question)

Always a good thing to revisit. Thank you for sharing. Just started reading Nick Sleeps letters (was completely unaware of him and his track record). His 2004 letter discusses the value growth debate quite well.

As in Prem needs a Charlie? More the ah-ha moment finally understanding the importance of ‘buy wonderful businesses’ that can ‘run themselves’. I would be VERY happy if Fairfax moved more in this direction. Haha yes that is what I meant. I’m on the same page. I owned FAirfax for a while but at some point I just got concerned with how complicated Prem seemed to make things. The dollar doesn’t know how hard you worked to make it.