hasilp89

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/morgan-stanley-workers-are-staying-despite-office-push-ceo-says?srnd=premium the office is dead narrative may now be dead.

Thanks! I hope it maintains well. yes it definitely pained us to pay over asking with mediocre financing but my wife was still driving a 2007 Ford Focus with a check engine light and deployed side air bags, not the safest thing for two young kids. She loved it though and was sad to part with it! I had a 335, it’s lot of fun to drive, a lot quicker than my Prius

Closing this out. We went with the Kia carnival. Ordered one in Jan, started reading orders weren’t actually getting filled so started looking at available inventory. Very limited and went with a dealer 2.5 hrs away in the boonies. Initially asked $10k over msrp, ended up at $5k. Dealer experience was horrible. Not surprised folks prefer online. Couldn’t help but feel like they were trying to eff me over every step of the way. While I’m long ABG and know they are different from the average mom and pop dealer in terms of customer satisfaction and execution, one bad dealer experience can change buying habits for a lifetime. Something to keep an eye on.

IIRC someone recently posted an interview with the PXD ceo where he was bullish $100-$120 and demand would suffer after that. Could be misremembering. any way interview here stating: -blocking russian oil would mean $150-$200 easy. Replacing this would require a global coordinated effort - although US has the resources - US investors don’t necessarily have the appetite to just drill baby drill - US production growth ain’t happening this year. They’re committed to 5% prod growth. Takes 6-8 months to get rigs online etc https://on.ft.com/3KgN9UB nothing folks here don’t know. Interesting to hear it from him though. Initial thought has always been supply meets demand but even then it takes time to catch up. @Gregmal I’m gonna go ahead and ask the layman’s question. You may have answered it elsewhere. I know you’ve mentioned buying oil calls, for those who don’t have broker accounts that have commodities/futures whats the best way to get levered $ for $ exposure to crude?

@Xerxes i saw this last night. i had very mixed feelings and don't understand his motives. 1. I don't believe the US has went into Iraq, Afghanistan and destroyed electricity supply, water supply etc. Maybe i am wrong, but i think he is wrong there. 2. While i understand the strategy he explains and that it may not be portrayed by mainstream media (Russia wants to capture Ukraine and the Ukrainian Army so that it can install a puppet gvt and maintain stability) that doesn't make what Russia is doing right... 3. He condemns Zelensky for conscripting men to fight as despicable. Of course there are moral issues doing this. But when people want to defend their homeland against an invader what should they do? If he is going to discuss the morality of Zelnsky's actions shouldn't he consider Putin's also?

As I mentioned you gotta buy the uranium from somewhere. Once infrastructure is in (yes the chips will prob come from china) the wind and sun are just there. And again I completely agree in the ST, but just pointing out what appears to be the most self reliant option.

This is interesting. I’m the near term sure and I agree with you. Lots of folks have effed up and dug themselves into a hole. you need o&g in the ST. But in the LT what is more self reliant than wind and solar. This will only push people to develop more for the LT. Even nuclear, you need to get the uranium from some where.

Thanks for the thoughts SD.

Wow, I didn’t realize the US navy was that advanced. the fact that you responded in ~30 mins tells me you knew all of this stuff and didn’t go looking it up. So we add US naval superiority over china to @wabuffo’s bag of tricks alongside monetary plumbing, special situations investing and god knows what else (I actually would like to know what else…)

Is this a realistic possibility? I don’t know the numbers but is there a coordinated way to just replace Russian exports of O&G entirely? Can pussyfoot around with all these other sanctions but seems like this would put Russia in a difficult spot? edit: ie what Lindsey graham has been saying. https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/lindsey-graham-destroy-ruble-crush-russian-oil-gas-sector-putin-aggression.amp not getting political just want to know whether it is realistic or practical. Ie can US ship lng to Germany? How hard is it in the real world for a country that currently imports 500k b/d from Russia to switch.

Is this legit? With private OZ deals the holding period is what lets you step up basis, defer and potentially eliminate cap gains. How long to you have to hold this for to get the 180 day look back benefit? So they’re funding tax write off by raising money - what if there aren’t enough good opportunities - they give the money back or do crappy deals (both of which negate the initial tax benefit) I wanna make easy money as much as the next guy but am skeptical on this.

New positions in NU, activision and formula one

You think? I’d assume all the fanboys are not as critical and on the same train. Could be wrong

reloaded for 2022 on the last day of jan.

Ditto, kept brushing it off when folks recommended it but finally started watching this a few weeks back when we self quarantined prior to our 2nd kid. Just got to season 4. I also bought some warrants

I’m assuming the issued number is what you want. Similar to how a US balance sheet shows authorized and outstanding on the common stock line.

DPZ

Lol I was referring to the topic as a whole

Ball till you fall was the most appropriate. Guess this one didn’t resonate.

A long thread here, but I hope folks take the time to read and provide any thoughts. In the last couple of weeks I’ve been thinking about the ridiculous public and private valuations we’ve seen in the last few years and how those are coming home to roost. At the same time I was trying to wrap my head around the idea that these insane overvaluations must have some unrecorded sort of fake wealth effect. An example - Wework was “valued” at $47b at one time. Even though $47b of cash value was never created/transacted and passed around the economy, investors marked up the asset side of their balance sheet and in effect $47b was created -was the economy $47b more wealthy though? No but on paper people thought it was and acted like it. Not sure if the right term is the multiplier effect but because of this marked up asset other wealth creating activities took place (borrowing against the asset, options were created for individuals etc.) Eventually that process reversed and everyone was marked down. In the public markets you could use PTON, was it ever $40b of real value to the economy? (Can go into it with crypto as well). Yet people acted, spent and borrowed like it was. This morning someone posted on twitter how BX’s returns show how hard public investing, where you’re marked to market daily, really is. My thought was sure, but so is all investing, the private valuations are just made up. This linked up with my thoughts over the last few weeks and it clicked this must be the bezzle. Many years ago when I first read poor Charlie’s almanac I read about the bezzle, original coined by Gailbraith. At the time and up until recently I never really understood what it meant but it’s become pretty clear now. The article below is a good summary but would be interested to hear peoples experiences with bezzle (maybe folks are calling it ponzi capitalism today). As it is not recorded anywhere it can be hard to spot, record or even describe. However I think I’d be a better investor by trying to do so - goes with out saying but these are the types of investments and situations to avoid. (also if I’m talking out of my a$$ somebody please let me know ) https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85179 the bezzle represents recorded or perceived wealth that does not exist as real wealth it gooses gdp growth in 3 ways temporary wealth effect that boosts consumption and investment spending to a level higher than where either normally would have been. when part of this false wealth shows up either as higher income or higher profits for the entity that benefits from the boost in recorded wealth when rising market values collateralize increases in borrowing that are then used either to raise prices further or to increase spending. It is not a coincidence that GDP growth rates are always higher than expected in periods during which a great deal of bezzle is being created The reverse is true when bezzle needs to be recognized. One or more sectors of the economy must absorb the loss. the wealth effect reverses, their lower earnings or profits are reflected in lower-than-expected GDP figures, and they are forced to pay down the debt It follows a cyclical nature, it gets built up and then destroyed. It is self reinforcing in either direction - the wealth effect is magnified on the way up, but it’s punishing on the way day

bought a handful of coal names ARCH, AMR, METC, HCC

was re-reading this article by Nick Train today and made me think of this thread. have to stay grounded but i think being optimistic pays off over the long run. I'll listen for perspective but the only thing i've gained from listening to grantham/faber types is unnecessary stress. Daniel Kahneman: 'Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you were allowed one wish for your child seriously consider wishing him/her optimism. https://citywire.com/wealth-manager/news/nick-train-why-i-taught-myself-to-be-bullish/a1105912?section=wealth-manager

makes sense from a high level, to some extent though it will be global right, if china shuts down plants it won’t matter if we keep our ports open. I’m sure they’re very focused on it it’s probably just that they are incompetent and ultimately incapable of fixing it.

interesting view. know you said private but regarding education did you see the HMHC thread. was looking at the company over the weekend. business is transitioning to digital products and recurring revenue streams, they claim to be ahead of the pack. unlikely for local, state, fed gvt to cut spending on educational materials? On top of that they are being looked at for a take private. seemed like an interesting situation.

“This kind of caught us off guard, these high num­bers and what it im­plies for our pol­icy and our pol­icy frame­work,” he said. https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-christopher-waller-says-high-inflation-caught-central-bank-off-guard-11642119289?st=ngk65mrcwssk78o&reflink=article_copyURL_share Amazes me how oblivious folks running the country have been to the realities businesses and consumers face. Im becoming more cynical by the day.