hasilp89

pretty sure it was negative (ie. leverage).

How do you typically screen for them?

How do you screen / search for these?

Personal - down 1.4% Managed account - down 4.3%. Went mostly to cash aside from GTXAP and WHC at the end of Q3 as I'll be investing through 1 account going forward.

my layman view (no position but interested) is that the rise in rates is a headwind for everyone - the PE masters of the universe will be best positioned of everyone to snap up assets / take advantage of distressed situations. they've lived with 5% rates for much of their lives. they'll know what to do.

Ditto!!

worth taking a look at whitehaven also.

i printed this out and taped it next to my desk. well said.

Curious how different folks (if at all) measure sentiment and/if they use that in regards to positioning. I assume a lot of folks here prescribe to the mr.market theory and want to take advantage of pessimism in the market and be aware of the opposite. What is a rational and unemotional way to track that (fear/greed, dma). There is the part of me that knows it’s foolish to try and time the market and maybe I should just leave it there. But if I truly believe the mr. market theory shouldn’t I be trying to take advantage? I don’t see myself as someone who would jump significantly to cash but I’m starting to consider using limited margin when things get cheap (easy to say this in hindsight). Gets a little circular because I know there’s value in not checking prices to frequently, but if you don’t check prices often enough you’re gonna miss some of the bargains that come along. How do folks balance this? cc @Gregmal, @Viking, @thepupil, @SharperDingaan

want to see if I'm following this, if you can humor me. treasury/US gvt. is bringing in more than its making. Tax revenue is up big due to economic prosperity while gvt. spending is stable. As a result the gvt. does not need to issue as much debt - reducing the supply of money? Results could include - Stronger USD, lower gold, lower treasury rates, deflation and cooling economy - will reverse / stablize as government spending increases to counteract and tax revenues decline?

Given he typically doesn’t sell it doesn’t seem like that would be a risk? With 15b of fcf coming in just the next 12m, deleveraging and buybacks means he’ll own more without doing anything. O&g isn’t going anywhere in the next 10 years. Could have a few more years like this in that timespan. Could be his best one yet.

Good back and forth and thoughts @Gregmal and @RedLion. a lot of “if, then, buts” to consider. Varies across RE asset classes as well.

Cap rates below cost of capital (ie. Not feasible to buy multi family at a 3 cap when 10 year is 3.5) - how are folks thinking about this? @Gregmal your thoughts would be welcome. on the one hand I hear that deals will just stop happening - current cost of debt at 60%-70% LTV is > than NOI. On the other you hear rents rising by 20% so it’s not that bad on a forward cap.

@Viking how are you positioned for this?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-energy-cfe-obrador-11655000527 interesting look into Mexico’s energy sector and how amlo is screwing things up. Doesn’t seem like it will end well.

Have you looked at Capri holdings - Versace, jimmy choo, Michael kors - maybe not the pinnacle of luxury but high end brands that have shown pricing power. Screens cheap although concerns re over earning may be valid. To the extent china reopening is real they could continue to do well. Haven’t spent much time but looks fairly interesting.

While I was speaking to the downside, I understand your point on the upside as well. When I say nothing about the business changing I mean it’s long term business model, advantage over other qsr and value to franchisors & consumers. Not sss for the next quarter or interest rates in the next year. I understood the whole market was frothy so I didn’t sit and think I was 60% smarter when it was up and don’t think I’m 60% dumber now it’s down. It was humbling due to the speed it happened and seeing it on paper. I get it works for some but I can’t time selling at the peak, or trying to sell on the way up or the way down. I like the business and assuming the fundamentals (as I define them) are important I want to own what I already do for the rest of my life.

I’m with you. Has been humbling to see the price come down so hard. At the same time there is nothing about the business that has changed for me. It’s still a wonderful business. I was pretty impressed at the level of focus from the new ceo and cfo in addressing industry headwinds.

Please post if you find it. I heard that too and was curious. I checked his personal holdings on ticker and it showed a position in lanxess. Know he said it was through brk but thought it was interesting.

Some recs based on stays / recs from others St Kitts - Park Hyatt was meant to stay here based on a rec but it lost power so they moved us to the Four Seasons which was nice. Cabo - Thompson - brother stayed here and loved it Haven't been but don't think you can go wrong in the Maldives or Bora Bora.

Two great stories told at the meeting this year. Both in the afternoon session if you scrub the video you should be able to find them. He tells them better but the summary. 1)WEB was talking about the strange purchase price net of fees for Allegheny and how someone has to pay those. On the topic he mentioned how they had to get a fairness opinion for diversified retail and another company. Not wanting to pay $2m for a garbage opinion from an investment banker, Charlie told him to go through a list of 10 bankers starting at $60k and the start at the top again with a small increase if no one said yes. Lo and behold the first banker agreed. Would be interesting to see what the$1.94m of retained capital did over the years. God bless him. 2) Someone asked about accounting rules. Warren referred to the fact that Charlie was on solomons audit committee. Charlie referred to the fact that they had a plug in the numbers. They then revealed that for 12 years solomons balance sheet had a plug number because the settlement of trades were done differently upon an acquisition (think it was an acquisition) and no one ever figured it out. They called it the floating plug. Hilarious and shocking.

Curious how you came across this? (And well done)

For real estate I enjoy and find value in subscribing to the local business journals (biz journals.com). It’s local stuff that doesn’t get reported on elsewhere, like SD says you can tell where development pockets and opportunities lie years in advance based on purchases, ecomic activity, business growth etc. I’ve never subscribed to any others but, although many have free content. it’s likely you can get access through your local library. Hotel news now (now owned by costar) has good hospitality and other real estate news, Argus has decent stuff on metals/mining, automotive news for auto sector, there is a wood products one whose name that is escaping me. Would be interested to hear if anyone has any others.

DPZ

same have been buying this.