ICUMD

Sure, they can go down. But given their 200 yr history, unlikely to ever go out. When it goes down - I get greedy. Most importantly, I manage the dividend income vs leverage expense cash flow. I'll let you know in 10 yrs how it goes.

I continue to hold a leveraged portfolio of Canadian Financials as my core. Bank of Nova Scotia currently trades at a particularly attractive valuation and yield.

BIAL 356 Crore Loss FY 2022 https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/bial-incurs-net-loss-of-rs-356-crore-in-fy22-due-to-covid-19-impact-122122800985_1.html

2023 should be an exceptional year for Fairfax India. Confluence of pent up chronic undevaluation and underrecognition. T2 BIAL completion with end of covid restrictions. Pent up travel demand, China restrictions favoring Indian interests etc. Pile that on a very thinly traded equity with excellent management and improving capitalization, odds of strong returns are very good indeed.

Looks like there are indeed other interested investors in BIAL... may not have been entirely rumor that buyout offer. https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/adani-group-weighs-acquiring-stake-in-bengaluru-airport-11668362140321.html May help with proper valuation of the airport. The next 1-2 yrs will see explosive growth in passenger numbers.

Puzzling since they saw 33 million passengers FY 2018-19. I suspect they are now seeing monthly pre covid numbers. Here's a peek preview on T2:

Darn. Was curious to see how the market valued 1.5 - 2 billion cash + 1 billion in equities.

I don't think this is a risk. Remember, they are operators of the airport rather than outright owners. They have a long term contracted lease to operate the airport. It is also a capital intensive business. Having said that, they could be getting jerked around. Pressure to open up HAL, caps on UDF fee increases post COVID, etc. If they can get top dollar with the T2 inauguration and move into a business they know more about (banking) which they outright own, could be a very good move. I think CSB has been a successful acquisition. Airports have been commanding top dollar in India as judged by the recent sales. I'm not against the move. If all this is true, this may be one of those 'revert to book value moments' I mentioned previously. LoL

It could be that they are trying to up their market cap to reach the magic 2.85 billion USD market cap to go after IDBI bank. https://www.livemint.com/news/india/govt-lic-to-sell-60-72-stake-in-idbi-bank-govt-to-follow-two-stage-process-for-stake-sale-11665155960803.html

This fits the bill in my portfolio for an 'Eternal hold' It beats to its own drummer. Being thinly traded, there will be moments of value realization, followed by return to discounted levels. On the other hand, the businesses are doing exceptionally well I think. Management is excellent. Looking forward to the T2 inauguration, seeing Bial passenger numbers, and the use of proceeds from iifl wealth

Like it or not, a job gives you purpose. A goal, an offering of expertise, a reason to get up in the morning, structure to your day, social interaction and in some cases, a feeling of accomplishment. Money, after a house, food and basics are provided for, seems to buy extra comfort at exponentially more cost. Money also is a strong, addictive motivator to keep people working/producing with greed and envy and the economy churning. Important distinctions, not necessarily independent or comissurate. At least that's my take! PS. So yes, personally, I'd still keep working.

Great suggestions on this discussion. I'd also recommend not to stress too much about things that 'could happen'. It's a rabbit hole that has no end. Rather, count your luck. Make good 'in the moment' decisions and try to maintain a balanced healthy lifestyle. The rest is really out of your control. May we all be so lucky to live as long and strong as Buffet and Munger.

T2 BIAL to be inaugurated Nov 10 by Modi. An exciting milestone. https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/bangalore/prime-minister-likely-to-inaugurate-second-terminal-of-bengaluru-on-november-10/article65982030.ece

Some places have been experimenting with roads that recharge batteries with induction. I surmise this may be easier along railway tracks via a charging electrode/brush of some sort without having to stop the train. Could probably get away with much smaller batteries and avoid diesel altogether. Could also 'hook up' charged battery cars as needed. Lots of options here. But I'll leave these solutions to the engineers. Edit: already in the works https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/freight-rail-electric-locomotives-1.6440766

I hold both CN and CP. I think they have better prospects with electrification than trucking. Batteries/motors + low rolling resistance give very high efficiency. Battery weight is better handled steel on steel than rubber on asphalt. Last mile will always be trucking. Rail is basically a set it and forget it in my portfolio.

Securities are hedges against inflation since most durable companies can increase costs and pass them on to the consumer. The worst off are the cash holders, fixed income, and minimum wage workers. The only question I ask during high interest rate periods is 'how much debt do I pay down' vs invest. I'm of the buy and hold mindset.

Interesting to learn these perspectives. I've evolved my strategy to the following: 1. Primarily invest for cash flow. Ie. Dividends. The core of my portfolio. Mainly banks and infra. I add to these (or optionally pay down margin debt, whichever is more advantageous in any given month). 2. Secondary positions in blue chip tech. 3. Other Bets Smaller, higher risk positions. Why focus on dividend cash flow? For me, it's simpler metric to understand. Its also easier to know when to add to these positions.

NCIB 2022-23 Question https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/fairfax-india-announces-intention-normal-115000053.html Appears that Fairfax India is buying back up to 5.8 million shares. Or about 10% of the float over the next year. They are allowed to purchase up to 7000 shares per day, which represents about 25% of the average prior trading volume. If we multiply 260 trading days x 7000 = 1.8 million shares buyback. How do they intend to purchase the additional 4 million shares on the open market? Does that imply a Dutch auction?

Googl, BNS

So Omers is very much participating in Fairfax India. Wondering what their game plan is for extracting value from this company? At some point, they will need a market valuation and liquidity or buyout to realize gains. Are they sitting with a preferred position relative to retail shareholders? Is there anything I'm missing?

I'm curious to know how much Fairfax would offer in a privatization scenario. I suspect it would be less than BV. Maybe $16/share?

In my simplified view, no. My primary focus is in always trying to increase cash flow throughout the economic cycle. Either through dividends or debt repayment. In other words, cash flow is paramount. Inflation and rising interest rates simply change where you get that yield from. Further, I think rising interest rates increase the risk of market shocks. So, the hope is to add quality equities with high dividend yield down the road.

Great idea Red lion. I enjoyed my trip to Kaui years ago and love Hawaii climate. Where did you go to shop resale timeshares? Any recommendations for specific timeshare condos in Kaui and Maui?

My play book: Guaranteed attractive returns are in paying down variable debt in rising interest rate environments. And taking on debt in low interest rate environments to invest (conservatively).

If population and population growth have anything to do with economic activity, then India is entering the golden age. Both India and Elon Musk are populating the world. OTOH, my optimism has yet to be validated. And, I'm no Elon.