ICUMD

BIAL seems to be on track to see 40 million passengers. 2023/24 yr. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/mc-exclusive-bengaluru-airports-terminal-2-to-handle-all-international-flight-operations-from-september-1-10762941.html

Decriminalization of drugs is a terrible idea. Humans and esp kids have a curious nature and a significant subset of these drug experimentors will become full blown addicts. I've seen this first hand. Legalizing highly addictive substances only increases proliferation and uptake. Treatment centers while fine in an of themselves, do not target prevention which is the mainstay of any public health initiative. Rather, there needs to be harsh penalties for the dealers ensnaring kids and young adult. Supply chains of illicit drugs need to be broken. A terrible thing to see promising lives lost in this way.

May suggest that there are quite a few more rate hikes coming down the pipeline. 8-10% interest rate could become a reality.

Yes, I'm an Intensive Care Physician aka Critical Care. Sometimes we're called Intensivists.

MD here. Late 40s, mid career. Agree with this. The medicine is the easy and interesting part. Add money and Type A personalities and it can be a grind. See tons of burnout in my colleagues. Love my work, but personally wouldn't enter the field late in life. Especially if I was already super successful doing something else. I will say that being a physician does have a way of becoming your identity making it hard to stop, regardless of pay. I see many senior physicians who simply can't walk away.

Canadian banks are known for their soundness and their presence in tax havens like the Caymen Islands. Would not be surprised to find out they own Laundrymats.

Canadian banks are pretty sound I think given their oligopoly and with new immigrants entering the banking system. What is more interesting to me is whether the thesis of structurally higher interest rates is correct or not. Inflation is high and a lot of debt/ asset is held in the form of mortgages. Many of these mortgages will reset in the next 3-5 yrs. This could 'deflate' the housing market. Perhaps this is the true intent of the BOC.

Agree with the 20 M liquid asset definition of Rich. Over 100M is Ultra rich.

Of course. But assuming the discount is real (and I personally do), ultimately these large block trades should translate into the gap closing. They are happening frequently enough and in sizeable amounts relative to the shares outstanding. Also safe to assume that if the buyer is Fairfax, they will not resell them at a discount on the market.

Another block trade today of 335k shares, total trade of about 370k shares. At least someone seems to be think this is undervalued. Maybe FIH trying to close the gap to BV to strengthen its position?

I'd posit that small investments can sometimes present compounding opportunity. Also, they have had a good record for choosing quality private Indian companies and realizing value. BIAL is definitely the key gem in FIH. Agree that IDBI is an elephant that will be difficult to digest. It will definitely be a test of management to see how they navigate this.

I was reasoning the opposite, that the discount would close since IDBI is a listed company. By purchasing it, more of Fairfax India's holdings will be publicly valued and therefore we would get a stronger calculation on book value. I agree, raising so much money is not an easy feat for a small company. OTOH, if parent Fairfax buys IDBI, what is the reason for even having Fairfax India? Maybe they should simply buyout Fairfax India and carry on with their India investments using deeper pockets.

Not an expert, but they could offer buyouts to partners over time. Anchorage listing would raise funds also. They could also sell certain holdings. Share issuance is likely not on the table due to depressed stock price. I would think they have a solid plan if they are bidding. They are well respected and have been able to raise funds in the past. They refused to comment specifically on the IDBI bid at the AGM, so of course, it's all guesses.

They have indicated that they will obtain partners, which could include the parent company- Fairfax, to make the purchase.

Could be a number of reasons. 1. Allow for a longer runway to raise funds and do a gradual buyout over a few years. 2. Keep management and branding separate for CSB and IDBI. They operate in different spheres. 3. Independent bank licenses are better than one for bank listing.

Hard to fully anticipate, but I suspect iDBI is a prized asset. Either Kotak or Fairfax will work with officials to discuss options to make the buyout possible, rather than walk away. Maybe it does mean that Fairfax needs to join CSB with IDBI. Now just a hunch, but RBI could prefer the Fairfax India offer since Kotak is much larger than CSB. 2 large banks (Kotak + IDBI) combining would undermine competition vs a smaller bank (CSB) and larger (IDBI). They may also wish to attract more foreign ownership in banking.

IDBI https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/money-and-banking/kotak-vs-watsa-the-battle-for-acquiring-idbi-bank-intensifies/article66850311.ece Looks like Fairfax India is in a strong running position for IDBI bank, results anticipated for June. Adding a bank of this size to the Fairfax India portfolio would be an incredible deal. Well positioning the company in an important growth niche in coming years. Thoughts?

I'll add that this is a very thinly traded company. Not a lot of awareness and interest presently. Stock price is fairly meaningless in this sense. Lots of investors are tired of waiting for share price appreciation or are skeptical. These are the traded shares that are determining stock price - at depressed levels. Conversely, this allows Prem to be highly opportunistic at current levels. Don't forget he bought back substantially during the Dutch auction at $14.90. Despite excellent progress in the company, it's share price today is $12-13, where he continues to buy.

Don't think Prem is purposely managing the Fairfax India investment in that sense. I think he's really just doing what any value investor in his shoes would be doing- buying back shares since he sees it as undervalued. For example, BIAL is valued privately based on Fairfax's internal valuation model. Prospective shareholders of Fairfax India may choose to agree or disagree with that book value and price the shares accordingly. Over 60% of it's holdings are private I believe. This makes valuation is somewhat arbitrary. So maybe the market thinks book value overvalues the company hence the discount?

FIH itself is currently a concentrated play on BIAL. (This may change if they go elephant hunting for IDBI) BIAL has a lot going for it with COVID behind: Demographics - accessing 30-50 million passengers per yr is a tremendous opportunity for monetization. Growing wealth effect FDI bringing tech to Bangalore like Foxconn Favorable regulated rates of return on aero and non regulated in non aero activities Land monetization etc. The buildout of T2 shows how quickly they are progressing and management prowess. Land development is also moving at a good clip. India is at least 20 yrs behind China, but favorable developments so far geopolitically and demographically. Tech companies will be transformative in India. I still think of FIH as a venture capital/ closed end fund planting seeds of investment in India. BIAL I think is starting to bloom. Just not yet fully appreciated.

In the hopefully near term, it's an arbitrage opportunity for when BIAL goes public through a listing of Anchorage. In the longer term, it's a demographic growth play. Regardless, the value is there if you have the patience. Management is solid. Lots of quality holdings. Discount more than covers the fees. A deep pocketed investor could mark this thing to book in short order. It's not a hype stock by any stretch. More like 'watching paint dry' I'd say.

They are definitely following through with accreting value through share buybacks and buying another 10% BIAL. Either they have got it wrong or the market is severely underpricing this thing. I'm guessing the latter. A job well done by management. Anchorage IPO will unlock value.

Interesting. I wonder how such a trade happens on a thinly traded equity without causing share price to increase. Maybe a pre arranged deal?

Aviation in India BBC News - Air India, IndiGo: New record as 456,000 Indians take flights in a day https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-65334390

China's aspiration is to dominate economically and technologically. Going to war over Taiwan would compromise both goals and it has in Russia. Literally, it would set them back decades. I highly doubt they would risk such a setback. Rhetoric, posturing and political chess games will continue.