ICUMD

Very true. If I'm not mistaken, Fairfax lost out to Adani bidding for the Ahmedabad airport, as an example.

Could yield some interesting opportunities for Fairfax India.

A good opinion piece on the Hindenburg report and Adani. https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/what-really-worries-indians-about-adani-s-empire-1185035.html In summary, Adani may be India's vehicle to fast tracking infrastructure development. There are lots of examples of high leverage, unprofitable companies promoting their stock prices to achieve their agenda. Could they collapse? Absolutely. But they likely have some very strong backers in government and business.

https://qz.com/for-india-the-adani-group-is-growing-too-big-to-fail-1849873489 LIC is a heavy investor in Adani. Also, LIC is a large holder of IDBI, which it's trying to sell to bidders including Fairfax. Very interesting.

Very interesting developments. Hintonberg makes strong arguments against Adani. This has the possibility of airing out a lot of dirty laundry right through to upper levels of government. Just a month ago, an article was positing that Adani was too big to fail. Let's see!

Interesting. I continue to hold a large stake, at underwater prices. My conviction remains based on the quality of the underlying holding. My error was not purchasing in more measured and tempered quantities. Covid was an unanticipated complication. In any case, I think we're back on track to see a return to book value 18-20$ in the short run. I think real value is closer to $25.

Definitely good points. Canadian Mortgages are Full Recourse - so there is some insulation there. Further, those with less than 20% down payment require Canadian Mortgage and Housing Insurance against default. BNS trades at a PE of 8 and Dividend of 6.2% which is historically fairly attractive - so have modestly added to this recently. AFAIK, CDN banks have never in their history cut their dividend.

Sure, they can go down. But given their 200 yr history, unlikely to ever go out. When it goes down - I get greedy. Most importantly, I manage the dividend income vs leverage expense cash flow. I'll let you know in 10 yrs how it goes.

I continue to hold a leveraged portfolio of Canadian Financials as my core. Bank of Nova Scotia currently trades at a particularly attractive valuation and yield.

BIAL 356 Crore Loss FY 2022 https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/bial-incurs-net-loss-of-rs-356-crore-in-fy22-due-to-covid-19-impact-122122800985_1.html

2023 should be an exceptional year for Fairfax India. Confluence of pent up chronic undevaluation and underrecognition. T2 BIAL completion with end of covid restrictions. Pent up travel demand, China restrictions favoring Indian interests etc. Pile that on a very thinly traded equity with excellent management and improving capitalization, odds of strong returns are very good indeed.

Looks like there are indeed other interested investors in BIAL... may not have been entirely rumor that buyout offer. https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/adani-group-weighs-acquiring-stake-in-bengaluru-airport-11668362140321.html May help with proper valuation of the airport. The next 1-2 yrs will see explosive growth in passenger numbers.

Puzzling since they saw 33 million passengers FY 2018-19. I suspect they are now seeing monthly pre covid numbers. Here's a peek preview on T2:

Darn. Was curious to see how the market valued 1.5 - 2 billion cash + 1 billion in equities.

I don't think this is a risk. Remember, they are operators of the airport rather than outright owners. They have a long term contracted lease to operate the airport. It is also a capital intensive business. Having said that, they could be getting jerked around. Pressure to open up HAL, caps on UDF fee increases post COVID, etc. If they can get top dollar with the T2 inauguration and move into a business they know more about (banking) which they outright own, could be a very good move. I think CSB has been a successful acquisition. Airports have been commanding top dollar in India as judged by the recent sales. I'm not against the move. If all this is true, this may be one of those 'revert to book value moments' I mentioned previously. LoL

It could be that they are trying to up their market cap to reach the magic 2.85 billion USD market cap to go after IDBI bank. https://www.livemint.com/news/india/govt-lic-to-sell-60-72-stake-in-idbi-bank-govt-to-follow-two-stage-process-for-stake-sale-11665155960803.html

This fits the bill in my portfolio for an 'Eternal hold' It beats to its own drummer. Being thinly traded, there will be moments of value realization, followed by return to discounted levels. On the other hand, the businesses are doing exceptionally well I think. Management is excellent. Looking forward to the T2 inauguration, seeing Bial passenger numbers, and the use of proceeds from iifl wealth

Like it or not, a job gives you purpose. A goal, an offering of expertise, a reason to get up in the morning, structure to your day, social interaction and in some cases, a feeling of accomplishment. Money, after a house, food and basics are provided for, seems to buy extra comfort at exponentially more cost. Money also is a strong, addictive motivator to keep people working/producing with greed and envy and the economy churning. Important distinctions, not necessarily independent or comissurate. At least that's my take! PS. So yes, personally, I'd still keep working.

Great suggestions on this discussion. I'd also recommend not to stress too much about things that 'could happen'. It's a rabbit hole that has no end. Rather, count your luck. Make good 'in the moment' decisions and try to maintain a balanced healthy lifestyle. The rest is really out of your control. May we all be so lucky to live as long and strong as Buffet and Munger.

T2 BIAL to be inaugurated Nov 10 by Modi. An exciting milestone. https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/bangalore/prime-minister-likely-to-inaugurate-second-terminal-of-bengaluru-on-november-10/article65982030.ece

Some places have been experimenting with roads that recharge batteries with induction. I surmise this may be easier along railway tracks via a charging electrode/brush of some sort without having to stop the train. Could probably get away with much smaller batteries and avoid diesel altogether. Could also 'hook up' charged battery cars as needed. Lots of options here. But I'll leave these solutions to the engineers. Edit: already in the works https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/freight-rail-electric-locomotives-1.6440766

I hold both CN and CP. I think they have better prospects with electrification than trucking. Batteries/motors + low rolling resistance give very high efficiency. Battery weight is better handled steel on steel than rubber on asphalt. Last mile will always be trucking. Rail is basically a set it and forget it in my portfolio.

Securities are hedges against inflation since most durable companies can increase costs and pass them on to the consumer. The worst off are the cash holders, fixed income, and minimum wage workers. The only question I ask during high interest rate periods is 'how much debt do I pay down' vs invest. I'm of the buy and hold mindset.

Interesting to learn these perspectives. I've evolved my strategy to the following: 1. Primarily invest for cash flow. Ie. Dividends. The core of my portfolio. Mainly banks and infra. I add to these (or optionally pay down margin debt, whichever is more advantageous in any given month). 2. Secondary positions in blue chip tech. 3. Other Bets Smaller, higher risk positions. Why focus on dividend cash flow? For me, it's simpler metric to understand. Its also easier to know when to add to these positions.

NCIB 2022-23 Question https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/fairfax-india-announces-intention-normal-115000053.html Appears that Fairfax India is buying back up to 5.8 million shares. Or about 10% of the float over the next year. They are allowed to purchase up to 7000 shares per day, which represents about 25% of the average prior trading volume. If we multiply 260 trading days x 7000 = 1.8 million shares buyback. How do they intend to purchase the additional 4 million shares on the open market? Does that imply a Dutch auction?