ICUMD

Interestingly, Canada has in its history a heavy hand dealing with separatists during the FLQ crisis in the 1970s. In fact, Pierre Trudeau himself invoked the war measures act to suspend civil liberties. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Front_de_libération_du_Québec#:~:text=It was considered a terrorist,people and injured many more. Seems to me that even Western nations can also have autocratic tendencies from time to time. On the other hand, that's what I expect from any good leader. Be it Pierre Trudeau or Modi - using autocracy selectively to maintain the unity and stability of a nation. Broken nations are not peaceful ones, nor ones that are safe to invest in.

Agree mostly. Trudeau should be upholding these values as a leader. Obviously, his priorities are elsewhere.

Events like 911 and Air India come from terrorist organizations, rather than individuals. In the case of Air India, there is no debate that militant Khalistani's held responsibility. A lot of innocent people died including children. Nijjar was a leader of this group having this terrible past. Trudeau could have discussed the issue of Nijjar's assassination privately with Modi. Rather, in accusing India publically (whether guilty or not), Trudeau makes many concerning unspoken statements. Most unspoken of all, his signaling of Canada as a safe haven for 'freedom of expression' once you have a Canadian passport. What a perfect breeding ground for extremism and terrorism. In any case, I suspect Trudeau days as Prime Minister will be ending in short order. Hopefully idiocy will be replaced with diplomacy.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/hardeep-singh-nijjar-faked-marriage-to-get-canada-citizenship-in-1997-report-101695397465458-amp.html Interesting character for Trudeau to support and risk trade relations. If the above was true, seems like he should have been deported back to India. Still awaiting to hear the 'evidence' India committed a crime on Canadian soil. Wonder why the delay?

Fascinating accusations. Let's see how the drama teacher does in this game of chess. First play: publically accuse a foreign country of crimes with no evidence and show unequivocal public support for a militant separatist movement.

It will be interesting to see where some of these major airlines make there travel hubs. Air India potentially making BIAL home would be transformative. Appears that many stars are aligning with improved global perception and opportunity in India, high profile and successes of indians abroad and the chance to lift 1 billion people out of poverty. Let's see the development over the next year.

The SIBs for Fairfax India are interesting. 1. They run counter to the BV performance fee generating structure of Fairfax. (Ie. They derive less performance fees) 2. They have failed to close the discount to BV and share price thus far. 3. They require capital which can be used to fund other purchases, therefore an opportunity cost. Yet, they have bought back via the SIBs in substantial quantity. My read on this is that the goal is to ultimately take this FIH.U private. Aren't all these SIBs essentially doing just that in piecemeal? Alternatively, they want to support share price and close the discount to help raise funds in the future, perhaps via Anchorage. Most certainly, the final chapter in this story hasnt yet been written. Hopefully some interesting deals and developments will be coming down the pipeline.

The past 5 years where the discount to BV arose were tremendously affected by COVID. BIAL, Fairfax India's prized asset was impaired during that time. I am optimistic that the next 5 years should see torrendous ridership growth and airport development progress. Trading in such low volumes, makes FIH.U a buyout candidate at some point. That is the main and perhaps only reasonable exit strategy for any significant holding by retail investors IMHO.

My home is comfortable and allows me to work earning a good income. A nice solid house in the country to keep me warm and dry, enough space at 2700 sq ft. And also waterfront as a bonus. Never plan to sell it. Couldn't care less what someone else values it for. Do not consider my home as an investment, though these days it would go for 1.5x my purchase price in 2012. OTOH, my condo in the city started getting hit with vacancy taxes which made it too much of a luxury to keep empty as a 'cottage' for personal use. So it's now rented.

Thank you for sharing this outstanding report. I skimmed it, but definitely worth a more careful read. Thailand airports seem like a good comparator to BIAL.

Fairfax India I think is a very good play on an excellent airport in BIAL. It is still in the first innings. My reasoning is that they get access to 30 million passengers per annum, growing to 90 million by 2030. When you factor in wealth effect and growing multiple streams of revenue within the airport grounds, of which they get up to 100% percent of non aero revenue, the potential is staggering. In theory, this should be a strong play on Indian demographics and growing economy. An ideal real estate investment.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Buffett is able to access high quality investments like warrents or preferred shares, or raise capital at low rates to buy Japanese investment houses. These low risk home run plays are not accessible to the average investor. He keeps cash on hand to make these kinda plays. If he's buying, he's not waiting for a deal on a publically traded equity, at least at this stage of Berkshire. In other words, I think Buffet holds cash for different types of opportunities than the average investor.

Sitting at -35% cash. Holding mainly yield bearing equities. Don't like holding cash in this high inflationary environment, plus I can write off the interest.

BNS in the $63s CDN with 6.5% dividend.

@RetroRanger yes roads, pipes are infrastructure that need to be developed, and will provide compounding GDP benefits as they become established. A tremendous opportunity as I see it to bring millions 'online' Geopolitical conflict will always be there. Most countries have armies and politicians to protect their territorial rights. Caste system- education is the best way to level a playing field and allow upward mobility. In fact, even in North America, there is an informal caste system. Don't children of actors and actresses follow in their parents footsteps? A Rockefeller or Hilton inherit millions or billions while being 'socialites'? A Trudeau become prime minister even though he's a drama teacher? Aren't Natives and Blacks unduly persecuted? Yet, many more people from humble beginnings can rise to power both in India and N. America: like Modi. Like Pichai.

I may be biased since I am a first generation Indo Canadian, but IMO: For countries and economies to grow, they need a large and effective workforce. (1+ billion people ). Secondly, they need access to education for upward mobility. (Internet) Thirdly, they need leadership and hope. (Modi, despite his criticisms) India is well positioned in all three regards. Internet and connectivity has given opportunity to millions of young Indians to learn how to improve their quality of life. Imagine villagers now having the tools to earn spots in top educational institutions and help act as inspiration for the next generation. Skilled Indian diaspora are ambassadors and mentors for people in the homeland. For instance, I'm sure Sundar Pichai has inspired millions in terms of what can be achieved. Personally, I don't think the politics of a few will suffocate the struggle of many.

Shhh. Secret is getting out! Heading to high 13s now. Seriously though, i think that few economies will be growing as fast as India. BIAL Airport is situated ideally to capitalize on this growth. Projections are already for 40 million passengers in the coming year. A tremendous monetization potential. The COVID turbulence is behind us, definitely looking forward!

BNS

Risk in this event was highly miscalculated /misrepresented. Can't imagine subjecting my 19 yr old son to this type of risk. Orders of magnitude improved engineering/redundant safety, would be needed to even consider such a trip. Reward was also miscalculated. Seeing a 100+ yr old ship through a dark, small portal window has absolutely no utility other than to say 'I did'. A tendency to overestimate or under estimate risk/reward occurs when there is failure to analyse, anchoring in someone else's faulty analysis, or lack of knowledge. Further, some people are simply risk seeking. Anchoring into the faulty beliefs of the sensationalist CEO was the error of most on board I would think. Very important to be an independent thinker when it comes to risk since it is an individualized calculation.

Suddenly I realize, not being a billionaire with billionaire problems is ok!

I agree with this thesis. I'd add that BIAL seems to be experiencing torrid growth with a growing contribution of non aero income which is not regulated like aero income. On track for 40 million passengers this year. India itself is also coming into itself with Modis pro development stance and friendly relationship with American companies. Daily price of FIH is being set by low petty traders judging from the low volumes. Large swaths of stock are being held and bought up by long term investors. We should see gradual repricing of the company closer to book value over time.

Agree with the above for super specialized medical issues. Basically, super specialised doctors need a large referral base to get the practise and expertise in a niche area. OTOH certain common medical issues are highly time sensitive: heart attacks, strokes, trauma, serious infections, certain surgical issues etc. Living close to a good medical centre for these issues can save your life. (And yes, you don't need to live next to a super expensive private hospital like the Cleveland clinic) Also, don't discount community hospitals - our Canadian community hospital is exceptional as we don't have 5 levels of trainees doing all the work as you have in many teaching hospitals. You get experienced physicians right up front. Having trained and worked in Toronto for a few years prior, I have personally no qualms about my family getting treatment locally in our community.

Additionally to physical conditioning, must not forget: 1. Always developing a sense of purpose. 2. Mental challenge/ problem solving. Farmers are some of the longest and well lived people I've met. Assuming they didn't smoke or drink excessively.

47 I marvel at the number of dumb mistakes I have made in investing and in life and still gotten to where I am.

IMO, nothing better than being an MD.