thowed

*cough* BITCOIN *cough* Many thanks for this - terrific summary, and many 'rhymes' to remember here, I think.

Mostly reassuringly similar to past meetings. Discusses effect of inflation & higher yields on portfolio: 1) Operationally, companies should be OK. 2) Valuation: could be more problematic. But thinks 1) should overcome 2). Looks at purchase prices, suggesting that for top quality cos, you can leave room for error in entry price, as they can grow into their valuation fast (as we're familiar with from Munger etc.). Explains why not convinced by Amazon (this has rubbed people up the wrong way!). Would own AWS in a shot, but doesn't think the e-commerce business is profitable enough. (I'm not smart enough to know if he's right, and if not, why not). I still think he's a terrific front man, and that Julian Robins is the real brain of the operation. I think that they target 'Joe Six-Pack' investors who don't care about the really technical stuff, meaning they don't really explain what they do. This frustrates some (it used to bother me) but I think it's deliberate, not because they don't know what they're doing. If you're lazy and not a great investor like me, it's an easy, quality, sleep-well-at-night portfolio to hold. But always happy to hear people trying to kill it! Stay paranoid!

WTF!?!? Google Finance has been revamped. Only just seen this - obviously it's an improvement on the past year or so, will have to explore.

Thanks for this info. I took this to mean that there are a number of Class A shareholders who are 'of an age' and for whatever reason don't want to pass their shares on. The BHE stuff: I took this to mean that he is doing this as an inflation hedge - obvs he knows a lot about this i.e. the famous 70s article. Maybe this is also the case with BNSF? It's human to think that 'things aren't as good as they used to be', but with that anchor, I have not found the past few years of letters to have the same resonance as reading the 70s & 80s letters for the first time. However we must also remember that he's a man in his 90s, and maybe he just thinks, f&%k it, I can't be bothered to write a long, incisive letter any more. I agree with Jurgis about the frustration of not talking more about the future. Having said that, I look at the portfolio and I see: Apple, I see Snowflake, and in particular I see BYD, and I think - this is not completely antiquated.

Thank you for elegantly summarising how I feel about Grantham et al. It was a great step forward for my investing when I realised that the best letter writers are not always the best investors.

Yes, as Cigarbutt elegantly expanded on, the quote is from Adam Smith's 'The Money Game', and is one of the best accounts of the late 60s 'Go Go Years' (there is a book actually called 'the Go Go Years' which is decent, but pretty dry reading). George Goodman (who wrote under the name Adam Smith) is one of my favourite financial writers as he achieved the rare combination in his field of being smart AND funny. I don't know if any of you have read the wonderful short stories of Damon Runyon (most famously Guys & Dolls), but his beautiful, wise-cracking prose reminds me of Goodman. The sequel, Super Money, was also enjoyable and I recently read 'Paper Money' (off a tip from someone on this board) which is also great fun and felt quite relevant, covering inflation in the early 80s. Separate to this, I do find the anecdotes of 'non-finance people talking so much about investing' to be interesting - I don't think this has happened properly since the late 90s (though I suppose house-flipping was the mid-00s equivalent), and itwould certainly suggest that we are in a 'late innings', without wanting to offer any more precise thoughts on timing.

Some things never date... “My boy,” said the Great Winfield over the phone. “Our trouble is that we are too old for this market. The best players in this kind of a market have not passed their twenty-ninth birthdays. Come on over and I will show you my solution.” So Adam Smith goes over and finds three new faces in the Great Winfield’s office. My solution to the current market,” the Great Winfield said. “Kids. This is a kids’ market. This is Billy the Kid, Johnny the Kid, and Sheldon the Kid.” The three Kids stood up without taking their eyes from the moving tape, shook hands, and called me “sir” respectfully. “Aren’t they cute?” the Great Winfield asked. “Aren’t they fuzzy? Look at them, like teddy bears. It’s their market. I have taken them on for the duration.” Winfield then describes how much money Billy the Kid is making in computer leasing stocks like Leasco Data Processing and Randolph Computer that he has heavily leveraged with bank borrowing.... “The strength of my kids is that they are too young to remember anything bad, and they are making so much money they feel invincible,” said the Great Winfield. “Now you know and I know that one day the orchestra will stop playing and the wind will rattle through the broken window panes, and the anticipation of this freezes us. All of these kids but one will be broke, and that one will be the multi-millionaire, the Arthur Rock of the new generation. There is always one, and maybe we will find him.”...

I found this presentation from respected HK activist investor David Webb utterly fascinating. I don't know enough to agree or disagree, but I welcome an alternative perspective from someone who appears not to be a lunatic. https://webb-site.com/codocs/DMW201204.pdf

This. Be open-minded. Too many people get fixed on a limited narrative i.e. It's 1999 again OR It's not 1999 again. Life is not binary or a spreadsheet. It's nuanced. It's a shame that the 'history repeats itself' line is so entrenched, when 'history rhymes' is so much more appropriate. If you remember 1999, then it may help you now psychologically. We hate seeing other people make more money than us, so it can be an emotional (or career) struggle if you don't own Tesla, Bitcoin etc. One of my favourite lessons from 1999 (which you don't need to have been there for) is Druckenmiller freely admitting he screwed up going back in to Tech at the top, knowing he shouldn't - he just couldn't help himself. If Druckenmiller did that, then the rest of us should watch ourselves.

Sorry, I didn't know that or would have been less generalist. I've been frustrated as I finally found a couple of decent long/short funds, but even they've had a rotten couple of years e.g. they were very early on Wirecard, and were just PUNISHED for it. Personally I agree with you that in a bubble environment Puts are heaps more sensible than direct Shorts, though Gregmal's ARK approach is interesting. p.s. Thanks for the colour from the Hockey Forum - that's interesting stuff. I remember in '99 as a young 'un, all my friends not in Finance were trading tech stuff. Haven't seen that for a while...

I suppose the most obvious starting point is Keynes: 'the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.' It's not much help, but I'd suggest that you are the only person who know if you're capable of doing it. It seems that Gregmal can trade Shorts. I absolutely can't. I'd say very few people can, so you need to be confident. I agree that you've put a good Short-able list together, but I've just seen so many 'obvious' shorts go wrong over the years.

Xerxes - I sold some tech on about March 23 too! I cringe to think of it now. Psychology is powerful! My (blurred) memory is that amidst the volatility buffeting I just felt that things were going to go down more, and so I'd sell and buy back later. Maybe I have to try and remember this next time I feel this way, and remind myself that it could mark the bottom! Overall though, I am happier with the quality of my portfolio now, which I think is important - hopefully this will help me to not sell anything if things were to plunge again, but just gradually add on the way down, as I should have done. I'm going to try to 'rub my nose in it' until I hopefully learn something!

About 16% in US$. What a year. My hedges meant I slept OK in March, but unfortunately I didn't take advantage enough of the volatility. I hope that it's taught me to have a better plan if it happened again (though easier said than done...). I try to be long-term buy and hold, but finally sold a few things I considered mistakes. One has already pinged up since I sold... but I hope that I've replaced them with things that will do better over 10 years. Japan did well for me (a mix of small-cap value, and quality mid-cap growth). I bulked up the China exposure a fair bit - large and mid-cap growth stuff. It's a bit 'EM consensus', but there are some great companies there if you can pick through the governance pitfalls, and the Macro Growth seems to be there (if not quite what it used to be). I reduced Vietnam - I think it's a wonderful macro story, but struggle to find outstanding funds (I haven't managed to get a brokerage account - too fiddly for me). There are a handful of great companies, though most are at Foreign Ownership Limits, so you'll pay a premium to buy them (except perhaps in very small quantities). Performance has been frustrating for the past few years, as ASEAN hasn't been very popular, but I hope it'll come back soon, as things are generally cheap with amazing growth opportunities. I increased UK exposure - mainly via owning a stake in an Akre-style listed fund management co. I'm hoping the UK will come good next year now that Brexit's 'done' - though it's not really finished, and the vaccination set-up seems to be a mess. And finally I increased US exposure - again (yawn) quality stuff like Ansys and Fortinet, stuff that's punchy for me, but I feel comfortable with the cash flow & management - I wasn't brave enough (or alternatively, early enough) to do the more hardcore tech stuff like PAR, NET etc. Gregmal was the person who I learned most from this year - thank you for your insightful thoughts - it made me think much more 'open-mindedly' about valuations etc., as I'm normally very conservative. I haven't bought Tesla or Bitcoin, but would probably buy the latter if it corrects. I hope also to be more receptive to stories like SEA i.e. monsters that haven't made profits yet at punchy valuations. I think it's important to know what sort of investor you are, and I don't think I'll ever be a 'trader', but I hope to keep learning and expand my options a little. Condolences to John Hjorth.

1) The Gold vs Bitcoin argument is starting to get a bit more interesting. I really liked Druckenmiller saying he had a little bit of BTC, and talked about how it was growing a brand, but that brand was a lot younger than the brand of gold. 'Brand' seems a good term to discuss these things that are effectively 'faith' investments like fiat currencies. 2) What I am still unsure of is the Correlations for hedging. Looking at this year, March events were the trigger for Gold to go up, and worked as a decent Equity hedge, whereas Bitcoin went down. The last month or so feels like Bitcoin is more correlated to STONKS. This seems important as it may be a mistake for those buying Bitcoin as a 'Gold alternative'. 3) Twocities, many thanks for the GBTC premium updates - very interesting. 4) I know very little about Bitcoin, and am just piggybacking off a few things I've read/observed...

Ditto. But I also know that these things usually go on much longer than I think, and it's excruciating sitting it out while the party keeps going. I need the Great Winfield to help me!

I think this is the Swiss link : https://www.estv.admin.ch/estv/en/home/verrechnungssteuer/verrechnungssteuer/dienstleistungen/ausland.html It's fiddly, but not too bad. Fill out the forms, get HMRC to stamp, and then on to the Swiss. Oh and you'll need to download Snapform to open the form file.

Isn't this just that his China and HK investments don't show up on this??

Only other thing I can think of, though I'm sure you thought of, is whether Fidelity didn't like the 'blocks' of shares you have to buy in Singapore stocks.

Very interesting, Investor20, thanks for this. It's always good to hear an independent view - it's easy for everyone just to say, 'this is great' without thinking.

I would be very grateful if anyone has any sense of what types of companies are likely to benefit from these amazing developments. General biotech, or more specific areas? Though presumably this will be priced in pretty quickly. Many thanks.

Gregmal - Cheers for the Druckenmiller info, which I'd missed. Some of the Bitcoin fanatics have overegged what he said, of course, but he makes some typically wise remarks about the relative timelines of the 'brands' of both Gold and Bitcoin.

I recently came across this guy - I'm sure some of you follow him. I love people who can be savage and entertaining about finance - does anyone know he is (assuming he doesn't prefer to stay on the dl). Cheers.

+1. Wirecard in Germany has turned out to be a massive fraud, but the smart people who worked this out early on suffered years of the share price going up and up, so made little net return when the whole thing collapsed. There are only one or two Long/Short funds that I think really can do Shorting well, and even they have struggled in the past 5 years - I think I'm done with it.

Great explanation. This is effectively why I am more 'Fisher' than 'Graham'. I go for 'Quality' because I like to be able to rely on a great Founder and Management Team to create the Growth that will make it good Value when I buy it.

This reminds me of late 1999, when I bought my first 2 stocks. One was a hot, small-cap tech stock. The other a cheap, large-cap Utility stock yielding 5%. Suffice it to say it taught me a lot over the following 12 months. I don't want to belabour the 1999 parallels too much, as this time obviously there are a lot of amazing companies making amazing profits, but there are also some pretty crazy valuations out there, and as KJP says, this might be a time to wait it out with a decent yield, until things correct and you have the firepower to take advantage of more reasonable valuations. My only quibble with your post, KJP, is that I believe that NYC will be the same in a couple of years, but I concede this is my own optimistic speculation!