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thowed

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Everything posted by thowed

  1. I've only had a skim-read of this, but it reminded me a little of this: http://www.oddballstocks.com/2017/01/homemade-economic-indicators.html "When I consider everything I'm seeing it's easy to say that we must be nearing a market top. But it was another two years from what I witnessed in 1999, 2006, and 2014 before the top finally blew off. Oddly I've been consistently two years early in noticing these trends, so maybe the bottom won't fall out until 2019?"
  2. Lads, if you're still looking: https://anonymoosenotes.wordpress.com/2017/03/10/notes-on-brian-gaines-of-springhouse-capital-management/ btw - thanks for your big thread - it's been a fascinating read.
  3. Susie Rippingall, Scottish Oriental Investment Trust Claire Barnes, Apollo Jenny Jones, Schroder US Mid and Small Caps Some of the best investors in the world are women. My personal take is that not many women go into fund management for the same reason I haven't - there are too many over-confident idiots around, and the decent, smart people mostly exist on the margins. This to me is the real issue, not gender.
  4. The other factor mentioned has been that Amazon is coming for them, though I have no idea if this is just a rumour or is based on insider knowledge. Now you've just got to decide if it's time to buy the correction, or if this type of market volatility is a bad sign generally...
  5. I feel like I'm stating the obvious here, but I'd say that Russell Napier's 'Anatomy of the Bear' might work.
  6. I look forward to your write up on Investor. I have been intrigued by them for a while, as part of a bigger fascination with family holding companies (Exor, HAL Trust, Jardine etc.). My main problem is that I can't get a sense of how good the current generation of Wallenbergs are, and how plans for future succession is. Stewardship is so important. There was an interesting feature on Jacob, Peter & Marcus in the FT a couple of years ago. You can dodge the paywall if you google the headline. https://www.ft.com/content/4f407796-0a35-11e5-a6a8-00144feabdc0
  7. I just finished this book, 'The Quest for a Moral Compass: A Global History of Ethics' https://www.amazon.com/Quest-Moral-Compass-Global-History/dp/1612194834 which covers the stuff discussed in this topic, amongst many other things. I would definitely recommend it if you're interested in the background from different cultures and civilisations.
  8. This doesn't surprise me. I think it reflects the way the industry is structured, even more than managers' talent or the fees. Most money managers don't really have the incentives to outperform (they still get paid as long as they 'fail conventionally'). Investors are to blame too - very few bother to learn about how investing works, and check fund prices too often. All this encourages benchmark-hugging. Sadly, new financial regulations (in Europe anyway) are making it even more onerous for smaller firms to start up, blocking future young talent. One good thing has been a new(-ish) wave of medium-sized, owner-managed mutual fund companies (usually star managers jumping ship to set up on their own) such as Fundsmith, Woodford and Lindsell Train who run relatively concentrated, off-benchmark, buy and hold portfolios. And let's remember, some managers can do it. People just need to do their homework to work out a checklist of where to look for them (e.g. they probably won't be at Fidelity).
  9. He mainly writes in English these days, but yes he's a french speaker. I enjoy his irreverence.
  10. I enjoyed it (though I need to go back over some interviews in more detail) - I like the format, and it was great to find out more about Canadian managers - I'm keen to learn more about good small-cap, non-resource managers. Given his lack of status, I thought he did pretty well in who he got. Obviously I'd have liked a Turtle Creek piece, but hey ho. I don't know if you read the MasterPenetrator blog, but he met up with Speziale for a night out and wrote it up.
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