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Corpraider - I think you pretty much nailed it there. The only thing I'd add is that I think they are never very good at explaining their thinking at a stock level. This used to frustrate me, but I've reconciled it as much of their investor base is UK retail, who don't really care about why they sold something. I often find another fund, which has sold the same stock, and bothers to articulate it. At this point I trust them enough to believe in what they're doing - though that's not to say that I don't think they'll get it wrong sometimes. Maybe Colgate was one of those. But yes, I've long felt Julian Robins is doing the bulk of the work - which is good, as he's younger. They've said from the beginning that they designed the operation to survive Smith, which is smart succession planning. And yes, Smith is entertaining, and says things about other managers that most people wouldn't (the year he put the boot in to Ackman, Loeb etc. was refreshing). Agree also on the repetition, but again I like that, I want consistency from managers - though it does mean there's only a tiny snippet of intrest each year. I'm now really curious on how the mid-cap closed-end fund will do - it's still early days, and hard to know how good the manager is.

Thanks for pointing it out, but there's actually another thread on this today from the guy who transcribed it.

Many thanks for this. Very interesting. I had a look at your site, and glad to see you're a Lindsell Train fan. I think their writings are excellent, and they have built the same 'trust' with their clients as a firm like Overlook. I wish there were more firms like this!

Thanks for this. Interesting to read. I'd still like to know, for example, how the figures looked at the end of 2018 or 2019.

Ha ha - agreed! The Bloomberg article sounded cool, but all we know is the results for 2020 - no sense of how much was lost before that. If you're down 95%, then making 3,612% isn't going to be quite so special.

Maybe we need to think a bit more 'out of the box' and consider hybrids i.e. workshare spaces in residential neighbourhoods - so people can escape their families, but have a short commute most of the time if they don't have meetings? Obviously lots of details to work out.

Haven't watched the 2020 yet. But I should think it'll be more of the same. The fund has had it's first real test, and has held up extremely well. You might also enjoy this: Since I did my thing above, they've launched a global mid-cap closed-end fund called Smithson. The link is to their first AGM presentation. It's early days, but there are a lot of great companies in the portfolio, and while the manager is different, it follows exactly the same methodology i.e. buy-and-hold 30 excellent quality companies. It's probably a bit hard to buy if you're not in the UK, but the portfolio might be interesting for ideas. The manager reports are a blander version of Terry Smith's, I've found so far.

Oh, hi, can we either: Move this thread to the Politics section, or Get back on to the virus, when we expect it to be fixed, effect on economy etc. Too much Trump is bad/good right now that doesn't seem especially relevant. Thanks!

Yes, I think you put the same sentiment more eloquently than me!

Can't remember him offering quite such a definitive opinion for a long time.

Minten - the news in the UK press this weekend has suggested that hospitals are struggling, 'things are going to get worse before they get better' from the UK prime minister, and that the UK could be under lockdown for 6 months. Very few people in the UK have been tested, relatively, so I feel it's hard to comment on new cases. Hopefully not all of this is true, but it doesn't fill me with hope. Hope that provides more colour.

I think ethical considerations should be on a case by case basis. I agree that we all want to defend our nations. And amazing things (e.g. the internet?) have come from military technology. But I would never touch a defence firm that made landmines.

Isn't the fundamental problem here that the biggest debtors are governments? So they want inflation to inflate away their debts. This seems one of those total common-sense no-brainers, but perhaps got forgotten somewhat as it was supposed to happen after 2009, but didn't happen. Now the stakes are even higher. And yes, it will punish savers. Separately, I'm wondering what tomorrow will bring? The bill is signed (good, though should be priced in by now) but the news from Europe (and US?) has not been so good, and suggests US has much worse to come.

Obviously this is all gross generalisations, but I feel that right-wingers tend to be more optimistic about things, and left-wingers more pessimistic. It is tricky relying on models that we don't understand. As investors, we know the old Buffett adage of preferring to be roughly right than precisely wrong, and it feels like too many people are taking the various models as gospel, when they are presumably relying on data that has limitations on its accuracy. On the other hand, if the models are used as guidelines, understanding their limitations, they're more likely to be useful. However, my feeling is that the internet (and twitter!) has reduced people's appetite for nuance...

A suggestion - can we start a new thread and reboot this? As Gregmal said, it has got a bit out of control here.

Hi Orthopa First off, I think that this thread is so big now with so many people involved that it's hard to generalise about people's thoughts. Secondly, I very much appreciate hearing your opinions with your medical background - it's really useful and interesting. Thirdly, as you say this is an investor board, and so I think people here want to talk about the ramifications this will have on their investments. I think their thoughts on the human impact is a separate issue that is less relevant here. I think you make a good point about going down a rabbit hole with other illnesses - I think it has highlighted for some of us the arbitrary value of a life, both financially and in terms of consideration. As I said, my understanding is that this thread is about the impact on investments, so I value your thoughts on infection rates, especially given your closeness to what's going on, and also the fact that they are different from a lot of what else we're hearing. Echo chambers aren't useful. As an amateur, the only common sense thing I notice is that the problem areas are the places of greatest people density and maximum domestic and international movement e.g. NYC, LA and other big capital cities, which makes total sense. NYC sounds like it's getting really bad. However if 'social distancing' works, then the situation will hopefully be much better in other parts of the country, simply because it's much easier to keep away from each other. Obviously this is a gross oversimplification. But it also doesn't tally with your belief that more people have it, but less people are getting ill. I'd be very interested to know why you think NYC and other hotspots are worse than others.

It still feels to me like the US is a week or two behind Europe. The UK and certainly London is becoming more weird by the day exponentially e.g. in how people have disappeared from the streets, restrictions being brought in, stories of people losing jobs, empty shelves in food shops etc. I have often been overly-pessimistic about the markets and lost out over the last 10 years. So I don't want to be too gloomy and miss the bottom, hoping for even lower prices. So given I feel unable to market time, I am currently dripping in, especially with closed-end funds on wider than usual discounts (and where intelligent directors are buying), and sticking to portfolios of companies with very strong balance sheets. For the stability of our societies, and people's financial securities, I hope our governments get it right soon. But it is very hard to know what they can do, other than helicopter money all over us, which in any other circumstance I would be horrified by the idea of, and obviously has its own problems it sets up for later on.

I follow some funds there. Of most interest for us non-Australian investors are the sizeable number of listed companies (i.e. closed-end funds) which must be getting to some serious discounts. Individual stocks I'm not so good at. Maybe take a look at WH Soul Pattinson, which is a family-controlled diversified holding company. From memory it had a good reputation. I think it would be lazy to say an 'Australian Berkshire', but you get the drift.

I am curious as to how different things are between large metropolises and the countryside. I imagine things are much more normal in the latter. In London, one of the larger metropolises, things are continuing to slow down in the centre. Offices are starting to effectively close down, cafes are very quiet. I know someone who flew back to Europe yesterday in a plane with just 20 other passengers. To go right back to basics: cash-flows cash-flows cash-flows. I don't see what governments can do to get people spending money (apart from online) if they're too scared to go places. My guess is that there are some big 'unknown unknowns' to come. At present it's hard to imagine a stockmarket recovery until the virus is contained and people are going out again. But no doubt governments will make some big moves before that, and some of them will take, either permanently or temporarily.

I don't know whether to start a new thread about this, but here goes... Obviously all sorts of sports events have been cancelled. Apart from this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-13/clubs-may-face-1-billion-bill-if-virus-wrecks-soccer-season what happens about player wages? I guess that clubs will have to pay their eye-watering salaries while they're doing nothing? Or did a smart lawyer think of this and put something in their contracts? I'm thinking of Manchester United, Juventus etc. for example. Any insight appreciated.

So it looks like there's going to be a big rebound today. I mean, that's not unusual after such a crazy day as yesterday. On the other hand, it feels like it's in anticipation of substantial government intervention. And it still feels like that the next few months are going to see a lot of economic problems in various industries, as long as people are 'self-isolating' and working from home. I've got cash ready, and have done a tiny bit of nibbling, but personally it feels like the economic hit hasn't been priced in fully yet. It feels like a number of people here have been nibbling, but felt like next week would provide better opportunities. But hey, timing is impossible...

I don't disagree with you that people are overreacting about the overall health position. My problem is that governments & businesses are reacting by shutting everything down and spreading fear, meaning businesses are not operating normally. Until people feel confident in going out and mingling properly, I think there will be a problem. In Europe movement is going down, and it feels like this will happen much more in the US. I suppose perhaps one question is if Asia will now outperform as they're ahead of the curve, and share prices have suffered comparatively with the US for so long. But I still suspect that things are too interconnected.

First off, I think Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a crazy idea. However given the lack of firepower available to governments, it seems as though heavy fiscal stimulus will be the next step, which suggests that we are one step closer to MMT. I mean, we've all had 10 years of unconventional monetary policy, so we've been softened up for more weird stuff. Obviously this is an unknown, and would normally be one for the harder-left, but nothing would surprise me any more. I guess you'd want to own TIP$ in such a situation, but what else?

I don't know the context, but just to say that while this is probably fine, I'd generally be wary of using the Daily Mail as a news source. It is not the most objective of papers, if fun for gossip & stuff.

Threads like this are very useful right now. I am drawn to options as tail-risk insurance, but I know: a) I have never owned any (and my CFA knowledge is rusty) so am likely to be the 'sucker' in a trade. b) they are expensive right now because of volatility. It's always good to keep learning, and I hope I'll be able to keep doing so, but so far, this has been a good reminder for wiser heads to effectively say, 'don't do it'! PeteC - I think you're based the same as me - I've also struggled to find the right venue to do it. I'd want to buy a Put, say, but most platforms seem to just do spreadbet trading, which I'm even less comfortable with. I believe Swissquote may do it and UK people can access it, I think. In other UK protection considerations, I've been looking at Pershing again, as the protection seems to have worked well, and the Brevan Howard trust, which is doing what it's supposed to as it did in 2008, though it still feels a bit black box, and I don't know what opportunities there are now rates have gone down even more. Ruffer supposedly has all this tail protection, but it still doesn't seem to be working, unless it just hasn't fed through to the NAV yet (I think they use their own funds for this, which may only be valued weekly or monthly).