thowed

If you can't access individual stocks, then there are some excellent Indian & Chinese active funds, but the best ones tend to be under the radar. Also I know the UK/European market & have little knowledge about the US mutual fund scene. First Sentier have some US presence, have a ton of experience in China and India, great long-term track records and have an excellent radar for dodgy governance. The flipside is that this quality focus means they tend to underperform in raging bull markets, but then outperform in bear markets. I think China and India are both fascinating and exciting markets to be invested in, but they both have their individual issues.

I'd forgotten about this. I came across this early on in my investment time - fortunately for me I didn't have enough money to go beyond the paywall, as in those days that sort of thing was right up my street. Bears usually sound smarter, but I truly believe optimism is one of the greatest things a person can have. I'd never heard of the Christian Science Monitor - thanks for the tip. The name is rather off-putting, and misleading!

My father did. It was his career, but I don't think everybody in the business did. He researched the Form ferociously with meticulous notes & so was a huge inspiration for me when I turned to the stockmarkets. As well as knowing that they're both industries where you have to accept that the right process won't always produce the right outcome.

Not one size fits all. The above is an example of when it becomes more reasonable to be very concentrated. 'Watch that Basket' etc. But for many of us, if you don't have time to research, or don't already know a company inside-out, then it becomes more problematic to be extremely concentrated. And congrats & thanks @Viking your tales are inspirational & helpful.

This is absolutely true in London. There are a ton of identical terraced houses around - when you find a special property, you're never the only person who knows it, so you have to pay a bit more. But as my grandfather told me, quality holds its value better, especially in bad times, so it's generally worth it for many reasons.

As per a quick glance the latest annual letter, yes, good track record over 5 and 10 years. But I think you have to frame performance of funds like this through the environment of the past 15 years - i.e. the sort of stuff they do wasn't much in favour for a lot of it, but they've caught up a lot in the past 24 months or so.

Japan Small-Cap Value - I think Samarang is best for this. Milestone Japan has a good, experienced manager - I haven't looked at it recently. Vietnam - VEIL.L is the easiest option I think, and for small-caps, AFC Vietnam has very good figures. I struggle with VOF.L. VNH.L has a good team & portfolio, but I think can be too illiquid sadly. Obviously not recommendations.

I think small-cap Japanese value is super cheap & companies are doing well (I invest through a fund). I think Vietnam got unfairly beaten up late last year, & everything is cheap & growing fast. There is often a divergence between large-caps & small-caps - I usually have a bit of both (again through funds). I expect more volatility in 2023, and so use a Macro hedge fund (mainly rates) to exploit this (it's a closed-end feeder, so open to mere mortals like me...).

I attended a presentation by a Macro fund last week, and they were talking about 'Inflation Volatility' i.e. they said it'll go away, and then come back, and that will catch people out. I find this a more believable narrative.

I don't understand this chart? It says 1974-84 experience, but the x axis is 17 years. Am I missing something? I asked the author on his substack, but didn't get a reply.

I don't know how many of you know Overlook - one of the great Asian Funds over 20+ years. They are very straight Phil Fisher type investors. They were early investors in TSM and have held it all the way through. The founder of Overlook was so into it, he actually wrote a letter to Warren saying how he thought it was a great stock for him. So WEB may well have been following it for a while waiting patiently...

I have a memory that Druckenmiller said that BTC/Crypto had a high correlation with QQQ, which makes sense to me. It is tempting to start dripping in - if he's correct, it could in the longer-term just work as a levered QQQ play, plus some extra if Crypto comes back again proper.

Indian fund managers I follow seem quite positive for the next decade (having been less so for the past decade). I know the classic argument is that India is too expensive (especially compared with much of the rest of Asia). However, I spent much of the 10s being underweight the US because... it was too expensive. My feeling is that the US and India are both expensive markets as they both have a number of outstanding well-stewarded companies. Political instability? What, unlike a country where the Capitol was stormed? Or a country where they keep changing the Prime Minister? I think it's a risk in most countries these days, sadly. Separately I agree there's an argument for a good mutual fund if you can find one, especially if it's multi-cap. It's probably an obvious thing to say that I think it's harder to make a coffee-can portfolio with small-caps, as there's less certainty about their longevity. Which may mean that a small-cap subsidiary of one of the 'good' families might make sense. Of course, I may be completely wrong - it's hard to pick countries - think how many people thought Tencent & Alibaba were untouchable! But personally I'm happy to allocate part of my portfolio there.

Mr Ambani puts me right off Reliance. There are a number of great stewards in India to choose from instead. Unsurprisingly some of the best companies have crazy valuations (e.g. Britannia). I'm rusty on other valuations - but for Coffee Can you could do worse than other Consumer Staples like the Subsidiaries (Nestle India, Hindustan Unilever etc.). Marico has always been impressive, though I'm not sure about post-Harsh management. And perhaps Godrej Consumer? For conglomerates, I'd start with Mahindra and Tata - they both seem in a good place management-wise, though this needs to be monitored, and hard to say if you go for the Parent Co or pick a 'best' subsidiary. The Murugappa companies seem in a good place at the moment too. I don't know if tech is too risky for a Coffee Can approach, but Info Edge and IndiaMART would seem decent places to start.

Is this for fear of Oil collapse in a hard landing? Or just because of the heady gains you've made? I need to look at the MLPs again as apparently tax is changing again for non-US people on 1/1/23. That I am reluctant is perhaps a reflection that I have fallen too much for DMLP (I just can't find anything I like as much) though a 'Horizon Kinetics Basket' of the C-Corps & Canadians would probably do OK, if not quite a well.

Thanks for this - this is a great interview - I must re-research him. I am very on-board with his philosophy.

I'm very much trusting in Lindsell Train - who have over 20+ years been a UK Buffett-esque house with regards to identifying companies with strong brands/moats. They are now one of the largest shareholders & recently reiterated their confidence. They said they were impressed by the management taking a short-term hit this year (as stated above with increased costs), in order to keep investing for the long-term i.e. not try to massage the figures & play a short-term game. Obviously US execution is key, but they are effectively a monopolist in the UK now & the founders are still involved and major shareholders. Lindsell have more on their website.

The UK is very two-tier. FTSE100 is mostly cheap value - as Spek says, "Lots of energy, financials, mining." Shell & BP are probably pretty easy buys - the rest I'm not so sure about. Then there's the odd interesting co e.g. Ashtead, covered a fair bit on here, and pretty much a US company. Diageo. London Stock Exchange has outperformed Nasdaq over the longer-term. Rightmove is Zillow for the UK but hasn't done stupid stuff. The rest of the UK has some really impressive small caps. Fevertree could become one of the next great global brands. Abcam has divided opinion but so far has been an impressive biotech. Many of these are beloved by Lindsell Train - I recommend their literature. For small-caps, I'd recommend the thorough Annual Reports of Aberdeen UK Smaller Companies Investment Trust - the retiring manager is a legend.

I broadly agree, though if I had to choose one Euro country, I would tend to choose Switzerland - it may be a cycle again for Mittelstand Industrials, and many good managers.

I take your point - I suppose it depends whether you think that everyone is into Gold/Silver, Oil Yield & Property yet. I'd argue that it's only a loud minority of internet geeks/investors who are doing that so far, & in that sense perhaps we're more in the 70s with this stuff to become more popular, before we get to the early-80s bottom. I don't know - I really want to be more optimistic - but it feels like we've had so many years of liquidity injections, with terrible capital misallocation, and there's more to unwind.

We are getting to the stage, when I would recommend people re-read some of the posts on here from February and March 2009, just to remind themselves on what it's like near a really epic bottom. Obviously each bottom is caused by something different, but things rhyme. One of my takeaways was how some stuff was UNBELIEVABLY cheap, and so people kept buying, and then... it would go down again. While the cracks are starting to show (especially in the UK), it doesn't feel that there is that level of madness yet. Of course, I hope there won't be (partly for the general state of things, partly because I'm fully invested). Good luck to all!

So I mainly research & select funds, but I want to expand the old circle of competence in this environment & have the option of buying Puts etc. for protection. I passed CFA Level 1 ages ago & can't remember much about the Options stuff there. Should I just re-read my notes? Or is there a good book/website for learning stuff that explains it simply for busy people, so I don't buy outrageously overpriced Puts etc. Many thanks for your help.

Which sounds great, except she forgot to add, 'IF they can afford it'....

He has a bunch of small-cap investments in the UK & Japan. 13Fs can be misleading.

Things are quite different in Europe also. Vonovia, which is generally considered one of the high quality, blue chip German Residential companies (also in Sweden) has collapsed, and seems pretty cheap just on replacement value. Overall I am not keen on Europe, but this seems kind of a no-brainer.