Gregmal

Yup. That and also if a few days or weeks in the market make you think like that you shouldn’t be in the market at all. It shows a complete lack of grasp for the primary purpose which is to participate in the ownership of businesses. Can we imagine Warren at the next AGM lamenting how he missed the 15% sell then rebuy opportunity last week? lol it’s so dumb but hey, now everyone’s doing it.

Totally on the money. There’s stuff with zero correlation to tariffs getting killed because “recession”, which frankly we ve heard enough from those folks over the years that they shouldn’t matter much either. People are just looking for excuses to justify panic and WS as usual is using the market to push/test both Trump and Powell. While some of the numbers on the tariffs are blatantly over the top, the final end product result is not as draconian as the market selloff at this point implies. Nikes a poor example because the business has bigger issues, but simply put a “46%” tariff increasing the cost of a $140 pair of shoes $15-20 1)is totally different than what a lot of people are running around saying, ie the $140 shoes increase by 46%, and 2) that somebody of the mindset willing to pay $140 for clown shoes(not me) isn’t gonna pay an extra $10-15. Whatever the incremental difference it certainly doesn’t warrant 30% off the market cap.

Cost

I’m no fan of the tariffs as I’ve said before. What Trump is doing is just as reckless as what Powell did two years ago. They both thought they were being heroes and both situations ultimately come to pass, but they’re playing games with peoples lives which is shitty. The tone from the WH about people near retirement not caring is total BS as well. Same tonedeafness as Jerry’s “there will be pain” speech and cavalier attitude towards job losses. Powell cost people their jobs and now Trump is gonna too. Trump is citing deficits which we all agree need to be addressed, and Jerry cited a “mandate” even though he didn’t seem to understand the cause of any of it. But what are we gonna do? All I know how to do is make money off the table that’s set for us. Just have to embrace the chaos that these egomaniacs create.

It’s not really a we ll see thing. Historically there’s been very few times VIX has approached these levels.

VIX is already near 50. That a pretty definitive indicator that a lot of people are quite scared.

Why are you guys so confused? I thought you all had it figured out. Trump, and Musk, and Lutnick, and Bessent, et al are just stooooopid, and the tariffs are just stoooopid 1d level thinking and there’s nothing more to it. Why keep struggling to “figure it out”. Thought you guys already knew it all?

Yea in theory they should be efficient, but they’re often not great economically because of the HOA structure. Unpaid trustees whom often do what they do for selfish reasons, property managers whom decide contracts with great discretion, both create what almost always turns into a wasteful structure. Long story for another time but I did actually go apeshit activist on an HOA once; it was glorious.

Over the years I’ve ended up moving most of my stuff to Fido. I like their platform wayyyy better than IBKR, they will work with you on the margin, and in general everything including customer service is awesome. What’s left in IBKR is mainly low beta boring shit like bonds or international stocks that’s of course highly levered. Cuz otherwise what’s the point lol Damn, now 85 seconds of my life on this pointless thread!

Damn, where am I gonna get “all this time” back? 48 seconds I’ll never recover! Shit now it’s like 56 seconds!

Yup. I’m sure you’re hearing it in FL with the condos; a similarly thought provoking situation. Many HOAs are freaking out over reserve requirements post Surfside. Even in NJ we have new laws that if put into effect immediately, would be devastating. But the reality is, most have rollout periods or like in NJ, 8-10 year windows for HOAs to become compliant. So what’s one to do? Become compliant immediately and kill homeowners with gargantuan assessments? Well, IMO that would be the dumbest thing to do. Better to just gradually work towards adapting to the new situation, while also keeping in mind that things can change and realistically, if enough are adversely effected, it will change and the only idiots are the ones that overreacted and got compliant on day one.

Buffet sold much of that at or below current prices though. For many years, iirc was maybe 2015-2020 one of the biggest drags was having too much cash. Then in 2020 when the big opportunity came, he didn’t buy, he sold at the bottom to hoard MORE cash. So yea I do wonder about post Warren BRK, but having capable folks being able to deploy capital I think it actually does OK if not better than people expect.

Bro… I’ve been enjoying the new Jack Daniels 12 and 14 year releases. Don’t push me.

Soooo money. If there’s anything young folks like Blake should study up on, it’s that! Volatility is not risk. There’s no point screaming or reverting to long winded pontifications about the perils of the markets simply because of volatility. I remember vividly, maybe 7-8 years ago asking our firms compliance officer what he viewed as more risky and speculative, in the context of account management; being long Berkshire at 1.5x leverage or having 50% cash with a 50% position in a pre rev biotech? He gave me pushback and I laughed because permanent impairment risk on the later is wayyyy greater. But to each their own.

+5000 Folks need to focus more on things that matter!

Well “just cuz” this whole thread is just another pointless example of trying to insert more politics as gotchas…

So again with the interrogation bs…do any of you take personal accountability for Bidens blatant Chinese and Ukrainian influence operations? Or is that where we get all shifty and dodge that by retorting some crap about republicans always deflecting to “what about Biden”? Meanwhile we need to “answer for” meme coins? Like how dumb is this shit? Does anyone whom voted for Clinton personally attest to condoning infidelity and abuse of interns? No sensible person should give a shit about the personal this or that’s of a candidate in today’s era. It’s strictly about policy…

That was what Obama did to politics. I’ve said it for years but all the complainers are getting exactly what they asked for when they supported that shit. All it took was calling someone a racist or making some made for TV zinger and you’d win if you were a dem. Remember the debate where Romney and Obama were asked the most serious foreign threat? And Romney eloquently states that it’s Russia? To which all Barry had to say was “the 1980s called and wants its foreign policy back”….then a year or two later these assclowns wanna tell us how big a threat Russia is. Trump just took the depravity to God mode because that was the only way to beat them at their game.

Wasn’t there $500m of lumber reimbursements attached to that deal with a non transferable CVR?

So evidently at some point Canada and the US hammer out this whole tariff situation; part of that may actually include some sort of conclusion to Fairfax’s RFP CVR.

I mean if we’re gonna pick on @cubsfan, why not open it up? There’s many names I could tag with similar questions; such as, how come the only time you open your yap it’s regarding some whining, complaint or attempt to undermine the current administration?

If you’re bullish on oil prices why not just go long futures/options? Most money I ever made in oil was owning futures options into the Ukraine war. Was glorious. You don’t have to wait for the slow burn value accretion, you don’t rely on management; if the price goes higher, you get paid.

This has been the hapless but amusing game most Americans have been taught to play. Trash someone for a “Fox News/NYT” view, while spouting a “NYT/Fox News” piece as their reality lol. Fact is both are being played.

Yup. 2 days of stock market trading action has started the process of outing who’s pants are down and who’s in distress emotionally. It’s fun watching.

I know, I know, I get it guys! It’s ridiculous that presidents and politicians are not mandated to be bound with concern and take action over a few days or weeks of stock market action! How horrible!