Gregmal

Eh its always a work in progress but 1) I think folks who are negative are still too attached to "their" idea of what valuations should be, rather than maybe what the reality is. The reality is, plain and simple, the market is and was off quite a good amount and specific companies have in many cases gotten it even worse. Lots of folks have in their head that an entire index should trade at some preconceived multiple. I dont really pretend to know what that multiple is, just rather that I dont have to buy stuff I dont like and that rates still, historically speaking are and will be lower than folks expect longer term. Also, valuation shorts are always a bad idea. On the 2)...IDK, again, 15-25% down on the year for the index. Did you overstay your welcome? One good day, one bad day, or week/month whatever shouldn't really influence any of that. Bigger picture theres only so many times in a many decade stretch where you get such calamity and volatility. Markets look forward. Maybe the next 6 months are rough optically...then what? I think its clear we are at the point where the worst of the inflation is behind us and largely...the inflation/rate story is closer to the end than the beginning in the US. Its reminded me a bit of COVD. Remember in April, May, June, July 2020? Folk sat there in awe, yes, many of the same folks who have gotten wrapped up in the inflation story, and just COULDNT BELIEVE what the market was doing. How TF could we only be 10% off the highs? Risks are EVERYWHERE! they shouted. They got too caught up in the story. Missed it. Then just continued to stare at what was immediately in front of them even though the vaccine was said all along to be a 6-9 month project. Markets started getting comfortable with the situation and then it just became a matter of time until the story and narrative changed to something else. If you waited for the all clear or the vaccine news you missed most of it. Thats just how it works. When/if we get to 2% CPI inflation will be long forgotten about.

If someone wants to do this, a net aint stopping em. This is strictly for show, and a complete waste of money.

Lol my general point, missed I guess, was just go look. Roll back the clock 12-15 months. Investor psychology and sentiment are huge complements of the market. Last year most people were dead convinced inflation was transitory. Now after hearing about it all year they think it’s here to stay. Those are indicators I find hugely enlightening. I don’t like crowds.

Actually correct that, I was buying preferred apartment at $7-9 when you banned me for 2 months cuz I called pre scandal Cuomo a lying scumbag in the COVID thread. That aged well too!

When you were taking about Fairfax at $300 or whatever I was buying preferred apartment for $7-9. When you were touting cash it was on its way to being bought out 70% higher, ignoring the calls. What’s the point. I’ve been between 1.4-2.2x levered most of the year and much wealthier for it. But we ve been over this before and you know it. If the only security you coulda bought was straight Fairfax common coming out of COVID you’ve got like a double over what? 2.5 years? That’s neither terrible nor great…but also as we ve mentioned, completely ignores the other opportunity sets.

Put remainder of my Berkshire into Google. Coast is clear

Underneath it all in fine print? *sponsored by Interactive Brokers Jokes aside it really is crazy when you dig a little how much of this stuff does intersect. Especially the Fed and Treasury guys and their "speeches". Most people probably do not realize they get paid for them...most often by...financial firms!

Tesla dealership. About $800k in NOI. 2.5% annual rent bumps. Anyone wanna take a risk of looking like a fool trying to state what it’s worth? My first thoughts proved to be downright stupid. Why REITs are way more potent than you may think….

BREAKING: HE SAID WHAT HE SAID HE WAS GOING TO SAY Hope everyone analyzes this closely for clues to the next move....

Headlines everywhere read: INVESTORS AWAIT POWELL SPEECH Who are these investors? The ones who chased theirs tails being covid experts for two years and now do the same doubling as inflation experts. Of course theyre always on the same crowded side of the trades. Selling when they should be buying and buying....eh, scratch buying, some of these people literally never buy....but you get the point. The rest just enjoy the amusement of people who's investment strategy resembles a drunk rushing to the ATM at 2am in Vegas.

Dont know if I'd concur about $300, but the oil trade has and should continue to be a good one. That hasn't changed since two summers ago. I dont think it'll have much impact on forward inflation. We had massive oil spikes in 08 and 2013 or so and little inflation. Folks are just so conditioned bc of the PTSD of the past year that they've concluded anything going up ====== inflation. Thats just not true.

I like VAL warrants. Its the classic post BK forgotten about turd with a muddied name from prior life cycles. Well positioned, ripping tits, and you have more than half a decade to watch it for pennies.

There are a lot of false and first level assumptions made to support some fo these notions. Where was everyone last year when it was obvious? Now all signs point south but people love a good story.

So labor report even into a strong holiday season…slowing. So idk. Dogs need cars to chase. There’s always a flavor of the year story. Last year hardly anyone was talking about inflation. I remember even posting Kuppys take on it and everyone pretty much sided with the Fed on transitory. Now the Fed went to full entrenched and not unsurprising, everyone follows. This time last year folks were still preoccupied with COVID. Now it’s the same things, remove COVID, add INFLATION. There’s a reason markets are forward looking. Yea @changegonnacomeyou do get some credit. You and I and @musclemanwere some of the few trying to educate people on The Top Is Coming thread; mainly about how the top already came…but folks still wanted to focus on COVID and then buy the dip on FANG in Q1/2….but we diverged there and it’s gonna be fun to watch it play out. The pushback and sometimes circular arguments if nothing else keep the pencils sharp.

That is way too academic and across the board applied. You’re telling me a factory that produces goods doesn’t have scale? Or if their wages rise 5%, but energy costs, commodity inputs, used vehicle and equipment pricing all come down…. Plastic spoons…you’re telling me they can leave the machines on longer to simply produce more without much or any incremental cost? Or an airline. Fuel is the largest cost. That comes down, so do parts and derivatives of commodities. Load factors can also fluctuate and be maximized. But employees get wage increases…. Price increases occur to the degree they can be supported. As the country normalizes capitalism sets in and one dumb store owner who thinks hiking his prices is the “duh” solution to everything gets a dose of reality when his neighbor sells the same thing cheaper. Didn’t we just see this to a fairly large degree with many of the commodity companies? Dur doh we re gonna hold the line on pricing…many even outright boasted of colluding on prices since many industries have consolidated..:.and then…there’s a little pricing pressure and it’s back to good old competition because one guy ain’t gonna hold out hoping his competitor turns down a dollar just cuz they all like the idea of higher prices better than they like cold hard cash. It’s wayyyy too one dimension, or academic, and hinges on one toothpick(jobs) holding up an elephant.

And “the genie is out of the bottle” is not a real supporting argument for jobs. This isn’t Aladdin. In order to replicate what’s already occurred we need massive future supply chain issues, meteoric rises in energy and commodity prices from existing levels, with significant increases in available liquidity, for everyone, not just a fraction of the workforce….there’s almost no chance this happens solely and just cuz for a year or two people get an extra 2-3% raise.

I recall even like 10-15 years ago watching those flip or flop, love it or list it type shows on TV.. they were always based in Canada...and just being like WTF? How does anyone afford a house there. Ive always admired from afar but never understood it. Especially now that I'm older and being amazed they did what they did without 30 year fixed rate mortgages. God bless em.

Eh true grit and courage? Thats not what Id call continuing to chase stuff that no longer exists at the expense of peoples livelihoods... The dedication is admirable...but theres little to nothing left. The whole thesis basically hangs on crystal balling future events that hinge almost entirely on the idea that people having jobs and getting raises(even though they've always gotten 3% raises..so again, is an extra 2% gonna do it?) will create this massive inflation problem. Neither of those things were the cause of the original inflation. And theres little to prove it will going forward, outside of relying 100% on the notion that..."well there was this one time in the 70s"...and thats it. Even the example earlier about asking small business owners is flawed. They can talk about hiking prices all they want, but we already saw it with Black Friday...people just walk because goods are cheaper elsewhere and there goes that whole theory. I mean to get this past wave of inflation we had: covid lockdowns supply chain chaos wars causing temporary flareups stimulus checks in the amount of thousands monthly going to everyone more lockdowns more stimulus low rates china going forward the war is old news. China is being forced to deal with covid, rates higher, stimulus gone, covid a nothing burger....so the thesis is.... jobs?

Yea Canada is a way different story and honestly, they had their decades of fun. I’d totally be a buyer if the opportunity presented. But US is a totally different story. All this pause is doing is conditioning people to pay even more. Couple contacts I spoke with already mentioned how 6% mortgages scared folks off. Then 7%. Now back at 6%? It’s like oh I’m getting a deal and some activity is picking up. There’s no shortage of demand for housing, it’s just some people have gotten priced out and a lot of others, even the ones who can easily afford it, hear all the commotion and get spooked. I guess that’s why the Wall Street scumbags with short positions go so heavy on the rhetoric. It does eventually influence behavior. Eventually mortgage to treasury spreads collapse but folks will still be fine paying $5k a month but instead of getting a $500k home they’ll be able to buy a $650k home. And so on. So far it’s been the biggest nothing burger boy who cried wolf collapse I’ve ever seen. Miami and Tampa are still north of 25% year over year. In NJ nothings really gone down. It’s basically just tech heavy places and fringe work from home beneficiaries thatve pulled back to like early 2021 prices. It’s probably getting close to the point where buying LEAPs on homebuilders presents a nice trade opportunity.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/29/twitter-stops-policing-covid-19-misinformation-under-ceo-elon-musk.html See how the media frames this? Whereas the real issue is, wasn't like 90% of the COVID related info and discussion that was popular and spreadable on MSM ultimately found to be wrong? So we've just been cherry picking which info we deem "misinformation", with ZERO real effort to actually focus on what misinformation is.

You shoulda just murdered someone or stole something. They woulda left you alone. Per orders.

Weird. People aint giving up their 3% mortgages? Guess the housing bears will say "next year they will!"...wait til next year, as always. Yawn. I still have my fat bag of cash waiting for them to be right so I can buy some more homes at pre covid prices. Its beginning to collect dust.

We now "stand with the Chinese people" much like we "stand with Ukraine" once its convenient, however lest we forget, not even a year ago...The Rockettes were cancelled because the gestapo regime in NY demanded that we card children under the age of.....5!

Aint it funny how folks now "stand with Chinese protesters", but were cool with Canadian truckers having their rights trampled?