Gregmal

No dog in the race, but always good for a PSA reminding us of the clown show that can take over narratives at any given point. I called it! I’m vindicated!

Probably something like short the common and go long 3-5x the number of warrants. High leverage straddle

Thought this was funny because there still remains this bizarre narrative in the market that retail and hospitality should be shunned because of economical cyclicality and e-commerce destroying brick and mortar. As Ron De Santis says, scoreboard!

right on cue

It’s VIC, can’t you just see the thesis? Some dork comes out of his city office cubicle screaming “Boss, we’ve got another over earning cyclical heading into rate hikes and Fed tightening!”…..valuation short

If Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)'s parent company Digital Currency Group is unable to raise $1 billion in emergency funding for its Genesis subsidiary and files for bankruptcy, the SEC could require Grayscale to liquidate all of its trustsincluding GBTC which closed today at a new record discount below NAV. GBTC owns 633,567 Bitcoin or more than 4X the Bitcoin that Mt Gox victims still haven't received back (the Japanese Mt Gox trustee is milking this for as long as possible). Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy (MSTR) hasn't even been liquidated yet. Silvergate Capital (SI) is still in business. Tether (USDT)'s financial statements (proof of reserves) are fake and it's only a matter of time until it becomes insolvent (when Bitcoin falls below $10,000).

I hope it plateaus here. Keep FF around 4%. Mortgage rates will move back to mid 5s. Life is fine. I love having an OK ish 4-5% rate in the market. Makes it almost too easy to just sit on your ass, play volatility, and short OTM puts on stuff you want to own.

With the energy and shelter elements starting to cross outrageously high comps, where exactly does the above then come from? Housing and energy have almost no shot at being anywhere near Q1–Q2 2022. Same for most commodity inputs. We d need like 100% increases in the smaller inputs to move the needle with the aforementioned stuff coming down.

Took a stab at some of @Cod Liver Oils IFOS this am. Then realized my limit was above market and I was almost 100% of daily volume lol.

I would almost certainly need assurances I won’t get yelled at before answering that. The safe answer, is that not long ago she was a crypto promoter.

Heres another example. Whats the # of people in the universe who want to own BTC at todays price? Whats the # of people in the universe who would sign up for a contract that paid you 10% premium to take BTC delivery, but only if it fell 50% in the next 2 days, and at the price 50% lower cost basis? Selling a highly OTM put for a huge premium, pretty much.... Is the later a better risk adjusted return than buying BRK today, at market? Numbers, odds, value...they all overlap way more than all you Graham Buffett folks like to admit.

Seems like that was a prevailing theme the past decade.

Philosophically at least, the value of anything, to me, is derived from my ability(a calculation of probability) of making money from it. Most often, the easiest way to do that is through investments. Real, tangible, often cash generating ones. But nothing in life or investing is absolute. Many things work most of the time but nothing works all the time. I recall a thread here talking about the opportunity to wager on I think it was the Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor fight. The odds for the fight were heavily favoring Mayweather but not nearly to the extent they should have. It was a sure thing. Easy money. If that same return on your capital came from a dividend or a tender offer but took 6-12 months...why is that favorable? Just cuz it checks the box of a "real investment"? The only thing that matters absolutely is increasing your own personal bottom line.

Exactly. When you look to size up a trade, the more variables you can eliminate, the more precise your sequencing of potential outcomes gets to be. With stocks, you have these annoying things called earnings, intrinsic value, and even the random 8k which can always go in your direction, or against it. Crypto you dont have most of that.

The crypto space is basically where everyone without fancy degrees gets to behave like they work on Wall Street. For a while they got paid like it too. Soon they’ll be back to selling cars, miracle supplements, CBD, and prepaid phone cards.

Ha. I think what I like about crypto is the degree to which a lot of it is just trading psychology. The fear and the greed. The panic both up and down. There’s also an element that eliminates risk…no earnings no underlying value. So to a degree your underlying driver is predictable human nature inspired behavior. Been watching for a decade and am 2/2 trading the mania. Hoping to get another shot. I think I mentioned before but my get the fuck out sell signal last time was an old acquaintance, dumb as a fuckin brick, boasting he mortgaged his home to buy 13 BTC(his equity was maybe $100k but hey there’s crypto lending margin now!) back in late 2021. That and Mia Khalifa telling everyone they were missing out!

Actually took some more of the short Tesla etf for day to day simplicity and some January $200 puts. Best way I could find to reduce the premium cost.

Absolutely. And he was, for 90% of his life? A de…… His closest friends and kids closest friends were the Clintons lol.

I’m watching this bc that’s when you’ll want to buy BTC. It’s not something you can destroy, literally…so you wanna wait til the selling is all forced, fear, panic…all hope is lost. Then wait a few weeks or months and 3-4 bag it. But all hope has to be lost first. Need to see a few more big guys go under for the setup to occur.

Thats it. They did.

All you stated is that: I'm pretty sure the guys at Enron and Lehman Bros weren't donating to Clinton or Obama. They, and Fuld specifically, WERE donating to both parties but predominantly Democrat....thats all. Of course big players hedge their bets, the FTX guy sent some cash to Republicans as well, but the overwhelming majority of the money goes to one party.

Fuld, Richard S Jr GREENWICH, CT 06831 Lehman Brothers/Chairman and Ceo $2,300 10/19/2007 G HILLARY CLINTON FOR PRESIDENT - Democrat Fuld, Richard S Jr GREENWICH, CT 06831 lehman Brothers/Fiance $2,300 05/30/2007 P OBAMA FOR AMERICA - Democrat Fuld, Richard S GREENWICH, CT 06831 Lehman Brothers/Chairman and Ceo $2,300 05/29/2007 P HILLARY CLINTON FOR PRESIDENT - Democrat FULD, RICHARD NEW YORK, NY 10285 LEHMAN BROTHERS/MANAGING DIRECTOR $10,000 04/09/2007 P DEMOCRATIC SENATORIAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE - Democrat

Who could forget about this guy too! https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/12/madoff-and-company-spent-nearl/ The following party committees, PACs and current members of Congress have received contributions from Madoff and his wife since the 1992 election cycle: Name Party Total Democratic Senatorial Campaign Cmte D $102,000 Securities Industry Assn $31,000 Wyden, Ron D $13,000 Schumer, Charles E D $12,000 Markey, Edward J D $10,000 Securities Industry & Financial Mkt Assn $10,000 Lautenberg, Frank R D $8,600 Merkley, Jeff D $2,300 Clinton, Hillary D $2,000 Rangel, Charles B D $2,000 Towns, Edolphus D $2,000 Dodd, Christopher J D $1,500 Ackerman, Gary D $1,200 Dingell, John D D $1,000 Obey, David R D $1,000 Matheson, Jim D $250 National Abortion Rights Action League $250

Sure I could have put the thought together better, but you see the publicity, pre blowup, you see all the political donations and hobnobbing. And its like oh, fits the patterns. Epstein was a big Schumer/Clinton/Spitzer donor...look who Weinstein did a lot of campaigning for, now this guy? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/bankman-fried-turns-toxic-in-congress-even-among-those-he-backed