Gregmal

All great investors evolve. Malone has never evolved and for the most part, neither has the shareholder base. People who over focus on FCF accruing to equity without any awareness of context or overall EV and risk profile.

One thing to remember is that the SPAC keep money in trust. So the interest element is a wash. Theyre buying the same t-bills you are. So in 2020 you would get back $10+ accrued interest. Today its the same but interest will be higher so maybe you get back 10.35 plus keep the warrant.

So it actually might have been Ukraine? Lol But hey, it’s newsworthy and clickbait because everyone knows tons of people always take the Russia bait.

That’s why fear mongering is effective.

This will be a big hit with the warmongers

100%. Besides, bullying builds character. Getting bullied taught me how to fight.

Not gonna lie. GBTC is actually somewhat interesting, on several different fronts.

My thesis which I detailed here was simple. Retail beat institutional investors to the punch. 2017 was the first act. I bought between $3,500-10,000 and figured the old high of $19,000 would be taken out once institutions jumped on the money train. That happened. I scaled out my basis and plenty more and planned to hold forever, or at least through the cycle. But in late 2021 got scared shitless when somebody I know who is the epitome of “dumb as a rock” told me he mortgaged his only asset, his house and told me he owned 13,000 BTC at $66,000. I put in a stop at $40,000 and parted ways with everything at that point. The “institutional buying” thesis played out…you see the “tutes” now. All these bullshit “crypto hedge funds” and brokers who rode the wave. They’re swimming nude.(swimming nude actually seems and is quite liberating in a different sense lol) but there was so much bs built in and really, it’s all pegged to BTC so how TF do you have a “fund” when they’re all correlated to the best asset, BTC? That whole scenario has played out…what’s left? I have no fuckin clue. So I’m out and just twiddling my thumbs. Maybe I’ll take a flyer when there’s clear capitulation…maybe soon. I think there’s more to it than “zero value” but less to it than “ultra gold of the internet”. So I guess we shall see.

Silver has more utility than gold so if solely based on that, gold is overvalued by like 99%.

Internet derived reality has already commandeered large portions of life over the past 5 decades. The monetary system will come too. But there’s no assurance BTC or any of the other shitcoins will enable you to profit from it. I always love going somewhere and observing….how many people are sitting at a table with other people and on their phones? How many people outside walking have their phones clenched in their hands? Or what percentage of people leave the house without them? It’s all relevant.

Of course and this is all accurate. The past few years have been spent basically being a crypto promotion. But that doesn’t remove the fact that there is utility to it. Or undermine the idea that huge portions of the investment community are simply lazily and prideful and therefor refuse to admit that things without cash flows have value too. Of course most of the time they do, but definitely not all the time. Sports teams I guess are one of the longest running manias in the world along with art, although now there’s a movement to try to say they’re all tax based benefits….it’s a scary world when the ti-83 doesn’t tell you what to pay for something! Hey, just slap a 10-15x multiple on it…. I mean serious investing shouldn’t be that easy, at least not all the time.

Way more leverage and 7 years to double seems mightily doable

Few more VAL warrants

Bingo. Its something a lot of investors just cant grasp. They ultimately NEED to quantify everything. They CANT be bothered to do real work, so instead they must jam it all into the ti-83 or Excel sheets with cute formulas. Its the ultra sophisticated version of looking for simple answers to complex issues.

I think investors are wise to generally stay within their circle of competence. But they're also foolish never to leave. If I stayed in my circle of confidence I'd have underperformed woefully, like Paulson/Eihnorn/Watsa style, from 2013-2019. That doesnt mean I abandoned a core investment strategy, but folks should always be evolving. Markets stay the same and they change at the same time. You can make lots of money with both.

I mean Charlie has a lot of awesome advice. He and his followers also got nailed on BABA? Why is losing tons of money on baba different than losing money on BTC? Is it just because we have a greater comfort level with the framework needed to lose money on baba?

Psychological bitcoin is kinda interesting true in 2015, 2018, 2020 and today bitcoin is impossible to value and very likely worthless but also holds similar characteristics to a lot of other things experts have been wrong about true in 2015, 2018, 2020, and today i really like bitcoin no opinion in 2015, true in 2017, not true in 2018, not true at certain points in 2020 but true in others, not true today i really hate bitcoin no opinion in 2015, false in 2017, true in 2018, true and false in 2020, true today see how these things work? More than being married to investing dogma, simple awareness and disciplined compartmentalization of the various aspects is crucial. What is the difference between BTC today and in 2021? Honestly, just sentiment. Nothing else. The price has come down and some bad actors got caught with their pants down. None of these things should be something folks were naive to all along. They didn’t come out of nowhere. But they also aren’t more significant today than they should have been last year. People just react differently.

I think it’s important to stay grounded and just remember that just because you have an idea of something or believe in a specific philosophy, that alone doesn’t make it true. People spend years and even decades holding onto opinions that aren’t correct, accurate, or the proper way to make money simply because they refuse to be open minded or see differing viewpoints. So on one end, you need to have framework, on the other it needs to be malleable. The purpose of investing is to make money. Not check boxes on an economic theory. Is a 99 share odd lot tender investing? Speculating? Or just a way to make a buck?

I’ve long been of the belief gold is worthless. It’s not a speculation, it’s just useless. Spare the jewelry usage because sea shells and fake diamonds work for that too. But people have and continue to hold it religiously, many bearish value investors actually.

See this is something that I think people get too married to when it comes to investing. Is it generally true? Absolutely. Is it always true? Idk, gold, Carolina Panthers, 52 Topps Mantle…..where’s the cashflow analysis?

Kinda like this whole climate thing

Yea there’s so many different dynamics involved which is why the mockery in context is helpful staying humble because more likely than not we all have at various points crossed different mental paths. If the entire market goes down, does that mean every fundamental bearish take on individual assets or companies was “proven correct”…no, not at all. At least no more than the Reddit boys were “right” about GME fundamentals! Of course Wall Street lost its ass on GameStop and AMC but was still “right” in their own heads despite losing shit tons of money and being directionally off by football fields….but now in reverse they “knew all along” crypto was crapolla and the retail idiots were all gambling fools even though many of those fools are still many bags ahead while the smart money said short at $1000 or simply sat on their hands and did nothing but take their grievances to Twitter. IDK or really have a strong opinion but I think context is important and as always, giving little credence to broken records or people who exist simply to claim “they called it”. Kudos to anyone investing with conviction or trading and making money. Fuck everyone else.

Yea I just mean the guys who said BTC was rat poison and total crap many years ago, had it go up like 20 fold, and now seem to think they’re validated! Happens everytime. Even here during March 2020 I think.

Double chuckle here as a neutral observer. How many hyper inflation bulls and stock market bears were also bullish on crypto? Lots! How many crypto haters from like BTC $1,000/$5,000/$10,000 are now saying “I knew it!/I called it!” Despite getting their asses ruptured and being remarkably wrong?

More 170s and also just some lazy mans TSLQ. My only hedge at the moment so its really a lot more than just a "Tesla gone fail" bet. I still firmly believe that if growth cant work with 3-5% rates than Tesla is fucked. TWTR is just entertainment. All while I root for Musk to pull it all off.