Gregmal

You can't invest from a manic position. Why do you think the best investors and business people are autistic and semi sociopaths? All I can do is think ahead, brainstorm continuously, and follow the spin on the ball out of the pitcher's hand. Behind it all there's self correcting mechanisms but in terms of the short/mid duration twists and turns, if you haven't thought of them or considered how to prepare for them, youre not doing it right. This is why most people miss the ball. When years ago, Kuppy asked on his Twitter "what would you do if everyone who got the vaccine died in 10 years" everyone was alarmed, outraged, and got mad. So bizarre, right? It's a theoretical question that really makes you think! I found it to be a neat thought exercise. Likelihood? Probably nil(knock on wood), but think! Thinking and brainstorming are soooo valuable because for investors they're like practice. Practice and then when youre in that game...less chaos and emotion.

Not number one on my list of expectations, but would be pure badass if Xi instead of doing the normal, “see your tariffs and raise you” simply goes “we re dumping all our treasures, and will resume negotiations in December 2026”.

It’s definitely noise most likely self inflicted, but imagine having a plan to freak out market and lower rates….then not being able to control yourself and retweeting some iteration of what you’re trying to do, in the midst of fucking with a lot of holders of the treasuries? Well if I was an adversary, I’d be dumping treasuries straight into those “negotiations”.

I wish we still had the covid thread. The amount of hind site analysis is staggering. The consensus was overwhelmingly you were an idiot for not being in cash, that anybody buying in March, April, May all the way through October/Nov...was a sucker. How could the markets be only a few % off the pre covid highs, Q2 GDP was going to be Great Depression level. Oh yea, Buffett is bearish! And Ackmans a total idiot....stimulus wasn't going to help. The Fed bringing rates to 0 validated the doom. Everything non tech was fucked....so when you see the covid references, just remember that the post mortem has evolved quite a bit from what was actually occurring at the time.

This is a gem of a company that doesnt get enough love

Well, hindsite is always 20/20. In real time it’s a different story.

That’s how it always is. Just the simple, emotional hot takes, nothing more.

At 23 with a brain you should view the macro as awesome. If stuff does fall apart, who’s the biggest beneficiary? Drop the reverence for dogma and the world and all its opportunities opens up. Signed, Someone who was in your spot during the worst of the GFC.

Emotional again. Like the 8th time in the past few days you’ve copy and pasted Jamie Dimons letter. We are all aware of who Jamie Dimon is; some of us have been aware of him longer than you’ve been alive. But more broadly, being a doomsayer, constantly appealing to authority, and liking O&G are like the Holy Trinity for shitty long term investment results so maybe just take a chill pill or go play a round of golf.

lol emotionally supercharged on cue

I don’t think we re near a buy anything point but there’s a lot of things that provide reasonable value for anyone with a time horizon of more than a few weeks or months. Macro wise everyone is just supercharged on emotion and all I’m really saying is I’m not really seeing what all the fuss is about.

Didn't the 10 year also quickly go from 4.4 to 4? Why do people insist on misleading themselves with this sort of stuff? You've basically just described a good ole UNCH as a big deal.

Of course it would. Same if we get hit with nukes. Whats the saying? More moneys been lost preparing for crashes than in the actual crashes? I just try baseline reality and have something small for the tails. The reality to the status quo isn't going to change much because the system is controlled by the folks with the most to lose. The reality isn't "the Great Depression 2.0".

Nah I try to keep it simple and I used to do a ton more trading, but once a certain financial threshold is hit, pinching every penny off every volatility event was just no longer worth the time it takes to be good at that. I still got it; just hit the C calls for like 40% in 2 trading days, but generally I just make sure what I own is sound and then try to be efficient in terms of the time and effort I'm devoting to life. You can control what you invest in, and how you invest in it, which should mesh and be synthesized with your investing capabilities and mental skillset/emotional tolerance levels.

The answer to that is always the same. Far OTM VIX futures options LOL

So then Trump "announcing tariffs" has nothing to do with your greater thesis, and you've largely been reacting simply to "the market going down" because you have an inherent believe that its overvalued and the system is going to collapse so therefor the market "should be going down" vs "its going down because people are "panicking over tariffs"?

The avoidance of international is not by accident but because Ive found smaller local companies easy to analyze, so there's merit to that. One of the pillars of what I look to invest towards is stuff that's unbreakable. Knicks and Rangers are still sold out with waiting lists for season tickets and suites and the best artists in the world will still be playing at the Garden this summer, to obscene ticket prices and sold out shows. Just like they did during the GFC and tech crash. But I think that largely most of this stuff is self correcting. So let's say Trump goes off the rails, mid terms are 6 Qs away and his agenda is done. Bad enough and he can probably even get impeached for a third time. All it'll take is someone running on "how's youre retirement under Trump"...we've even seen how the short term pro Trump WS crowd has started getting nasty...even though its been like 3 days. The same way Biden came in and ripped up most of what Trump did the previous 4 years, can easily be done again. That everyone gets their wish and we're back to deficit spending and the status quo.... One of the other things that ALWAYS happens when the market goes down, the valuation crowd ALWAYS thinks its because of valuation and now, because things are going down(a common and frequent aspect of the stock market, but hey!) now we need to factor in "stocks are expensive"...a clear bias activator if Ive ever seen one. Same as the fervent buying of Google because "its cheap"...Google has ALWAYS traded "cheap" relative to FAANG/MAG7/whatever..why is it cheap now lol? Which isn't even to say it's not a good investment, I just recently added a little back, but cheap is wholly dependent on context. And if we use cheap interchangeably or applied to incorrect underpinning, or for that matter, substitute the word "expensive" while incorporating the same process, the faults are the same. My main point and observation is to simply think rationally and remain level headed and heck maybe 30% down is the bottom, China probably retaliates after new Trump tariffs sometimes this week and off come another 1500 points, but I mean, Ive never seen this sort of gamblers investment philosophy show it has long term beneficial effects to ones wealth.

It's important to continue evaluating the big picture. This sort of drunken price action induced stupor is indeed very reminiscent of the early covid days. Remember when the frauds and attention seekers, IDK maybe it was April or May 2020, would proudly state "just wait til you see what Q2 GDP is" as if they were on to something? Like one quarter meant anything to 20-30 year priced assets? It was so dumb and THIS was the consensus for a bit! Everyone raved about uncertainty, and also "the market is obviously so overvalued because how can we only be 10-15% below ATHs with the economy shut down?" They were fools and just couldn't think beyond the moment. This? Small potatoes compared to that. I ran the Nike exercise... 30% off the market cap because shoes might increase $10-15 a pair? LOL nah...and that's one of the worst case ones! Even the stooopid simp Lutnick has matter of factly stated that tariffs will not be removed "for days or weeks"! And many of you are hook, line, and sinker all in on trying to forecast bottoms and bounces? Let's say everyone gets a Vietnam style tariff rate...and it lasts for more than "days/weeks", heck a quarter or two? How much should that impact your thinking in acquiring a decent asset? Or is it "more long term than that" and say the Nike tariff effect for the next 10 years translates to an extra $3 per pair of shoes...SPY 3000? Resist the urge to think like sensationalist bozos guys. There's also the qualitative stuff Ive mentioned too. Whenever certain COBF specific signs start showing up, pattern recognition should automatically kick in. Happy hunting.

Nah Bessent is just another mindless knee bender in the administration and oh by the way, did you hear! His AUM declined!

First useful thing posted on this site in a week. Thanks!

Yup, same with Russia. Resolution is found through both sides walking away with victories. Not public gladiator fights.

Buffet at the AGM “you know, thank god Geico is private, because I really woulda been mad if it was a public trading stock and it went down a lot last month!”…

Yea. It’s why I prefer the “sucking up to dictators” route. Because Trump and China operate the same way. We will see 50% increases of tariffs to infinity because both use the same little man “can’t back down” approach to everything. Same as why it’s much more preferable if he and Kim Jong talk hoops and him and Putin wanna make fun of Obama together…much rather have that than a game of “my nukes are bigger”.

Well, it’s true. He’s just not counting the other 75-80m of the worst. Realistically only the top 10% or so should have meaningful say in anything but it’s not like that which is why politics have devolved into a game of bribe the plebs.

Yup. That and also if a few days or weeks in the market make you think like that you shouldn’t be in the market at all. It shows a complete lack of grasp for the primary purpose which is to participate in the ownership of businesses. Can we imagine Warren at the next AGM lamenting how he missed the 15% sell then rebuy opportunity last week? lol it’s so dumb but hey, now everyone’s doing it.