Gregmal

I've said it before, maybe even a while ago on this thread or one like it, but there are a lot of babies out there. Many have skin so thin it's amazing they are even able to function in a normal capacity on a day to day basis. Investing and politics go hand in hand, only things missing are whiskey and cigars. If people dont like it, they dont have to pay attention to it. They can ignore it, as there are functions for that. Or they can go elsewhere. There are plenty of forums and communities for investing. If someone is unable to cope with information or opinions they dont like, let them go elsewhere. The main thing to try to keep in mind for those that do engage, is that its nothing personal; everyone has a right to their opinions and beliefs.

I find looking at what others are doing as helpful. For instance, Dan Loeb is waging war on family owned, Campbell's Soup. That tells me quite a bit about what he thinks of the US markets and their expected returns right now.

Take 20-30% in the next week/month and spread it amongst companies/themes you can safely count on to be integral to the system and that will unavoidably benefit from time simply passing. You could also just take that % a buy an index fund, but frankly I think a basket of companies like GOOG, MSFT, BRK, JPM, BA, etc will do way better. I'd throw in a personal favorite, MSG, and maybe some ETF's like CIBR/HACK. There is your "exposure". Then take your time diligently putting the rest to work. But at least you get the hardest part out of the way, which is getting in the water.

In the event of the LP issue, from what I've heard, it may or may not be more time and cost productive(vs doing it yourself or paying your accountant) to just report the income on federal, and then have the states send you a notice and just pay it then plus whatever incremental interest charge/fine you'd get on $10 or $50 or whatever.

FRPH

In other tax related news, Bryce Harper wanted to go to the Giants, but passed because of the atrocious tax burden California politicians are imposing upon residents. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/aoc-effect-california-high-taxes-235930772.html

Any way they can steal from people they will

I typically buy a few shares if I have any interest in following. I have specific accounts for specific types of investments as well, that way keeping tabs on them and their peers is easier.

Can you share you thoughts on this? Personally, in terms of how I am positioning, I think as you get closer to a US/China deal, you are going to want to be less overweight US. I have been massively overweight, so I am in the process of reducing exposure. For a long time I have been seeking a good India play. Xiaomi is dominant in India and growing like a weed. In terms of the business, after looking into it further I believe it is largely unappreciated and not well understood. The core business IMO is not really the smartphones but the advertising and services. Lei Jun is an impressive fellow, and Shun Wei Capital(their investing arm) seems to be positioning for dominance in the IOT/AI markets. Where better to be than India/China with a free call option(eventually) on the US? To me, this has the potential to be a mini-Softbank/Tencent. Very long run way.

1810.HK

Could be a few regulatory hurdles to that. At a certain point, anti-combines becomes an issue. I would think the better way to do that would be to get in the ear of a portfolio company and play activist. Get them to make a bid or try to acquire another airline you like. Then give it a little and see how they integrate. Then make a bid for the combined entity.

He owns just under 10% of DAL, AAL, LUV. If I recall during the CNBC interview this week, part of his answer to why he wasn't buying in Q4 was that in the (unnamed) stocks he was interested in adding, he didn't want to trigger 10% I dont think I believe the rumor on LUV, but yes, I'd prefer he just stick with owning those than do something drastic.

Yea I definitely wouldn't be thrilled if he blew half the cash hoard on an airline. A business he once deemed uninvestable he is now going to foray into, making one of BRK's largest investments ever? Sounds like an unnecessary risk. I mean as it stands, airlines are currently so cheap that I dont see how buying one outright is a better choice than simply investing across the board in a few different ones. If his new found bullishness is correct, there will be tons of money to be made going forward given the single digit pe multiples these trade at. And if not, being in the public markets gives you the liquidity to get out if things go sour. Not the case with owning an entire company...

Lol now he’s on tv saying he s not a buyer of AAPL here, but would be if it got cheaper!!! First, it was cheaper, much cheaper not too long ago, and he did nothing. Second, wasn’t he buying like a drunken sailor a couple quarters ago? At much higher prices? WTF happened to Warren Buffett?

I am hardly a BRK expert, but these where also kind of my feelings as well. IMO the Buffett we've seen the last half decade is hardly the man we all admire. We've seen a lot of high profile investors get eaten alive by what's occurred with the markets since the GFC, so maybe WEB is no different. It's just odd seeing it from him. Especially since he more or less shot the lights out and was vintage Buffett during the GFC. IDK, the dude is nearly 90, beat cancer, and probably has others areas of his life he neglected over the decades that maybe he feels deserve more of his time now. But to me, despite all of his wisdom, he is no longer a must follow investor and he is making obvious mistakes, not to mention, as you stated, doing things he never used to.

I think if this is the case its even more troubling. Translated, this essentially means he is putting his legacy and the "exclamation mark" on his career ahead of easy and obvious, not to mention more traditional method of creating per share value. On one hand he thinks valuations are excessive(which could also just be an excuse for making some mistakes), yet if this is the case what is the need for all the cash if you think your own equity is cheap? Further, I saw a comment here or maybe in the annual letter thread about "he's shouldn't just buy the dip on every 15% correction". Well, first off, if you know the value of what you are buying, this is irrelevant, and second, how many 15% corrections have we had in the past two decades? And where would one be had they bought BRK or any other number of market proxies during those drawdowns? Just seems like an awful lot of excuse making. Are shareholders really comfortable with this guy, and his track record of late, spending $50B-$75B on an acquisition???

Yea I initiated a small position in BRK in early January but the more closely I follow, the less impressed I am, within the context of ignoring that it's Warren F**** Buffett's company. Not only has the equity performance been suspect, but many, with KHC being the most recent example, fall victim to the same type of mistakes. Now, to me, the lack of real buybacks is kind of icing on top. The only justification people seemed to have for Warren's lack of a spending spree in December was that maybe he was binging on buybacks... Now it's confirmed he basically just froze up and did nothing, moreso resembling an inexperienced retail investor rather than the old school Oracle of Omaha.

The above is pretty much what the founding fathers had envisioned. Federal government has gotten WAYYY too powerful. States should be able to control their own "stuff". At the end of the day we'd probably have more harmony because people would move to regions and areas that suite their interests.

Anyone else find it amusing how the same people(generally speaking) who refuse to be fully invested, or who hold huge portions of cash, are the first ones to quip about how easy everything would have been to just take all ones money and "buy the index"?

These are always cool and all, and I certainly don't mind the reading, but I've yet to see a real one that the average Joe can look at and dream about. Beating the odds would be having a $10M income, regardless of what he does with it. Show me a guy would turned a $50-$100K salary into mid 7 or 8 figures. Thats impressive. Its like all those "Guy With 200K In Student Loans Got Debt Free" stories. Then you find out he and his wife made $15K a month a lived in a 600 sq ft house in Pennsylvania or with their parents...

UNIT is likely to be a good value investment at some point. WIN is a doughnut. No position in either ATM.

https://reorg-research.com//pdf/1862178.pdf I'd imagine there are at least a few on these boards who were following this. Fascinating stuff. Knowing the law well enough to find value discrepancies in linked securities. Someone just made a fortune

Bernie wants to steal from the owners of these corporations??? Nah, you dont say. I'm shocked. Perhaps Bernie should start paying his fair(not 11%) share on his $200k+ income and tell his wife to stop defrauding universities.

You have peaked my interest with this. Any quick insights you have about this company? Nothing worthy of praise as far as info goes. 90% of my short term bullishness is for technical reasons. More or less this is a classic in favor, to out of favor, let the pendulum swing story. So as we all know, it's highly levered. Minor improvements in the business and or debt reduction greatly enhance the equity value. I give some weight to the fact Joe Papa came over when the stock was trading at higher levels($35 or so IIRC), and a lot of his compensation is tied to stock options north of $60. Its been quiet of the VRX/BHC front for a while now. It seems after the name change and some time passing that the shackles of negativity are slowly moving away from the company. So on a fundamental basis, I dont see the same overhangs I did a few years ago. Now look at the chart. This thing has run up to $25 or so several times, and then fallen back. But again, like the broader market, it is resilient and knocking on the door again. It's purgatory trading range has basically been $12-25 and I think having done its time in the penalty box and shown sustainability at the core business, it's ready to make a big move if we see one more solid earnings report(Feb20). I looked at the options and having the above outlook, the March options look quite cheap. You can go long a $24 or $25 call for $2. That strike gives you a built in stop loss should earnings suck or the shares pull back down from the high end of the current trading range. Whereas if this runs you got IMO at least $4-6 per share in upside. Given the setup I think the options are very mispriced, and as such, am willing to take a swing with a small spec position.(For me defined as .5% of portfolio or less. In this case it is less)

BHC calls. This one looks like it's ready for a breakout. small spec position....