Gregmal

There's some winner take all dynamic as well. Few industries are more ripe for disruption than RE brokerage. Z owns the internet(which the internet is a pretty important theme over the past couple decades). 1 in 40 is the number you need to know there. Thats how many people transact in RE without ever using Z in the process. Or in other words, its virtually impossible to avoid them. From there its just about the ecosystem, engagement, and automation of the process. Ibuying is just a call option, but could be significant as well. Having done dozens of transactions over the years, its a pain in the ass. Z is the only real player who can seize this opportunity IMO. COMP has the funding to do some damage as well. But I view them more as just a tiger running wild in the old ecosystem, which if you're willing to spend, is pretty easy to conquer. Poach agents or buyout smaller shops, undercut listings. Utilize some automation and advertising. Softbank knows a thing of two about throwing money at ideas....COMP is a smaller position but worth keeping an eye on well below its IPO price.

COMP and FRG

Exactly, losers dont like to be accountable. Its not your fault, its because you're white and white people are quickly becoming the minority and the left wants to scrub you out and take your guns and jobs and make you a third world citizen. Thats the mantra on the right. On the left its basically the same; its not your fault, America has been out to screw colored people because the country is run by evil supremacists. This type of net catches like 80% of the population. Only 20% see that white folks aint endangered and with the proper skillset can easily get what they want and that colored folks are pandered to to such an outrageous degree that its almost impossible to fail if you make any effort. The later requires work though but if willing is a huge opportunity. I remember in History classes thinking how crazy it was that back in the day the American Dream required saving for freaking months to by a ticket to make a weeks long journey on a fucking disgusting ship and then go through a shit hole like Ellis Island and then after that start from complete scratch without even having a place to stay, and then go find work in a non industrialized setting. Today you literally just have to get off your ass. Mental set is the key though.

The medias job is to shape the public into subservient and moldable followers. This applies to both left wing and right wing outlets. Its far easier dealing with 2 predictable groups than a sea of individuals.

IDK but personally I think you can learn something from anyone. Whether its knowledgeable things they do well, mistakes they make, a thought process or pattern, or simply other behavioral stuff. But we live in a world were the media has molded us to immediately identify with folks as either friend or enemy. If any enemy, its become a trained behavior to just find some surface issue, and dismiss absolutely everything about the person. Oh well. If everyone wasnt so dumb it would be a lot harder to excel in life. So be grateful.

I would also add that it seems a lot of people have their eyes in the wrong place with the "covid disruption" thesis. Yes, that occurred, but that merely set the table for a lot of whats to come. Just as significant IMO, if not more so, is the government spending and stated objective now of both parties to effectively pay for votes. We've more or less backdoored our way into a UBI with the Child Tax Credit stuff. Look at all stuff in the 3.4T package....Covid IMO was merely an excuse to get certain programs and ideas into play. A lot of them I think are here to stay.

Wage inflation is inevitable and ESG is certainly not transitory; its gaining steam. Definitely not welcome news for large scale, low wage labor reliant operations such as the QSR stuff, Walmart, Amazon, etc. Housing as well is the easiest area for the government to goose with regulation/subsidies and what better way to keep on buying votes than pumping affordable housing programs? So some of it is one off disruptions in certain areas but theres also some very important areas where those things have nothing to do with it. We talked about it in the job market thread...where do these jobs now come from?

Great quick read. As always, Kuppy nails it. It feels like the engine has been revving on the inflation trade all year, and at some point I think it really takes off. https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2021/09/20/when-the-levee-breaks/

Man BOMN is your bitch huh? What'd you do 20 to 45 and now rebuy the bottom at 24 and pluck $10 in a few months? Too bad theres no options.

Shorted some CLF 9/24 $19 puts for 40c

Well thank God we got Biden in there. I'm sure he'll fix this. LOL Voting has consequences. Jokes aside, I dont see how you can start going down a very slippery slope of retroactive taxes which is effectively what this is. It would be one thing to grandfather existing stuff in, but people have literally planned their whole lives with these type of things and now its like "oh you were too good give it up". Same thing with the 1031 exchanges. The groveling for new dollars to fund this ridiculous new budget is disgusting.

Not even into buildings, but just in general...what happens when there's failure? Just drop down on top of people in the streets? Even if theyre 2x as reliable as a real car, thats still too many incidents. Been wondering how they solve this since watching Minority Report like 20 years ago.

Had to interrupt my golf outing to do some trades! Took about a 7% position in GLD. Looks like a good hedge position with multiple ways to win over the next 2 months between China and the US government shutdown issues. Added a few VWTR, FRPH, JOE, VICI. Shorted some CLF Jan $17 puts, waiting for mid week to hit up some weeklies. Closed some BRG swing position from last week.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/09/16/2298781/0/en/CTO-Realty-Growth-Announces-Recent-Disposition-Activity.html 5.1 for a Wells campus with like 3 years left on the lease. Solid prints on the retail outparcels as well although IMO the Chickfila should've gotten a stronger bid. Obviously retail is dead. Long live the Sun Belt.

Looks like the turd may be in play. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/bluerock-residential-is-said-to-explore-strategic-options-sale Undoubtedly several very positive read throughs for APTS as well. Folks, we've found the money trees! theres a whole forest of them.

another slug of AIV March 5s

I think its a great idea for people to keep an eye on stuff like this. Finding a new and disruptive theme in the early innings, with a great long term story is one of the easiest ways to make a ridiculous amount of money in a low risk fashion. As for the BAC list....I think some of those things have already peaked in terms of investment opportunity. Others haven't gotten enough traction.

You are focusing on the hand waving. The bottom line is that any dollar THEY can get their hands on they will try to. Especially if you dont have the numbers at your back. The more the numbers skew, IE income inequality, the more abusive they can be to the haves. The more haves or have offspring they turn into have nots, the more reliance on the system, the more reliance on the system, the better off THEY are.

Read everything you can get your hands on. Start with some classic books. A few of my favorites are the Market Wizards series, Reminisces of a Stock Operator, and Bull! A History of Boom and Bust. From there you can start figuring out what suites you as far as a style goes. I've also advised folks(like pure newbies) half jokingly to figure out what a degree in investing would cost...Take 25% of that amount and put it in a trading account. And just get to work. The best educational material is ultimately gained on the field.

https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2021/09/deploying-national-guard-fill-school-bus-driver-shortage/185357/ Poor people willing to work are gonna get paid soon. Wages have to go up. I did a brief errand run yesterday and lazily tabulated that out of the 3-4 dozen stores I passed, probably 70-80% had help wanted signs up.

CLPR March 5s. Edit: filled. thanks

small add to ALCO

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/america-is-short-more-than-5-million-homes-study-says.html Single-family home construction is running at the slowest pace since 1995. A bit of a ways away from "we're almost at the 2M figure that will blowup the housing market and subsequently the economy"...

Wasn't DD one not long ago?