Gregmal

AKA CRISPR I haven't seen anything here on this so I thought I'd do everyone the favor of floating what is described by scientists as a "once in a generation breakthrough". Yes I know this idea is not for everyone, but thats OK, it can only be for those that want to make money or have the ability to see where the puck is going...If you require a single digit PE and low P/B in order to make an investment you can stop reading now. If you are open minded and wish to continue, I introduce you to the breakthrough technology... That is CRISPR and the variants Cas9/12/cpf1/3. What CRISPR does is effectively target specific genes within an organism by activating proteins naturally occurring within the immune system and directing via RNA an attack on a specified areas. In layman's terms think of going to the dermatologist and having a mole removed. CRISPR more or less removes a malignant mole from your genome. It is that simple and this is why it is going to change modern medicine. Up until now, the majority of treatments for any sort of ailment involved putting together a concoction of, lets call them, "things" and then seeing how they reacted with the body. CRISPR entirely removes this aspect of risk. It is as simple taking a taking a scissor to an undesired or harmful trait. A good piece is found here, https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604126/edible-crispr-could-replace-antibiotics/ So far, CRISPR has been effective on every complex organism it has been attempted on. It is able to target just about any disease, and on a scientific level, is so easy to apply high school students are messing around with it in AP classes. CRISPR itself is not really that controversial, however the aspect that is controversial stems from the optionality. When programming the RNA so to speak, you have two options. One is to cut out the genome, and the other is to cut out and replace. Cutting out and replacing is where you can take an undesired aspect and flip it into a desirable one. There is a fortune that will be made from this and there are a bunch of different avenues where one can look to invest. Rather than follow specific companies I have found it helpful to follow specific doctors whom have developed and patented this "technology". These names are Jennifer Doudna, Feng Zhang, Emmanuelle Charpentier and George Church. The various fundraising rounds have been loaded with the biggest names out there. Bill Gates specifically has described this as "one of the most powerful technologies of the 21st century". There are a handful of public companies with holds on the patents, as well as a good few private companies with shares occasionally available which offer an opportunity to play this space. The names I think are worth following are Caribou Biosciences, Editas Medicine, Crispr Therapeutics, Synthego, and Beam Therapeutics. I have found Nature.com, Pubmed, and Researchgate to be sites with ample resources on this and database access to current events. Curious if others have studied this, and/or made investments or have ways to play this. Be forewarned that yes, these companies will not likely to make money for years and that yes, this whole theme is not even in the first inning yet; it's just batting practice, maybe pregame warm ups. But the opportunity is so massive and the patents even today IMO are severely undervalued mainly because people fail to fully understand or appreciate the potential and have all sorts of misnomers floating around because of stigmas attached to boogeyman words and phrases like "GMO" and "playing god".

Yes you can, as long as the shareholders you screwed and the new shareholders are different. It happens all the time. Yea, it happens all the time. Just wipe it out and then re-issue it with a favorable valuation. Will be oversubscribed as well.

I think it’s important to remember that the high majority of the time, material changes in asset prices can be caused by things that in hindsite are rather immaterial. Multiples can expand and contract on nothing other than sentiment. So doing ones best to understand all the different puzzle pieces and how they fit into the bigger picture is just as important, if not more so, than simply waiting for a material change. More often than not, material changes, once obvious, are already priced in. Real world examples would be obvious from looking at any number of story stocks. WPRT was one of the biggest examples I can think of. The company was a dud, but had a great story. For years the market ignored poor results and a management team that over promised and underdelivered, consistently. Returns were quite impressive. Then, out of nowhere really, market participants lost confidence in management, and then the company could do no right. It plummeted like 90% inside of a year without any real “material change”. Tesla IMO could be another one real soon. My point, WPRT was a shit company. The US economy is quite healthy. Fluctuations can occur, that are quite material in terms of impacting the value of ones investment, and driven by nothing but sentiment. It’s easier to swim with the current, rather than against it. One just needs to find the current. Who cares how long Jerome Powell needs to chase his own tail...

Thanks. I have been following Greenhaven for a while and they are top notch. Very under the radar firm with some outstanding ideas.

1211.HK a few minutes ago

Well rest assured, he is now confident he has shrunk his fund back to a size where its returns will no longer be impeded... Additionally he is opening it to new investors so that they can take advantage of this once in a lifetime opportunity.

Sopranos Californication Nip/Tuck Damages Mad Men Eastbound and Down I don't watch much tv and it takes a lot for me to get into stuff. Honorable mentions but not stuff I'd really be able to rewatch were Boardwalk Empire, The Wire, House of Lies, Dexter, Vice Principals. Currently trying to force myself to stay with Billions, and giving Black Monday a chance. Homeland had big potential but I totally got bored with it after Season 3.

I doubt anyone is looking to mimic his strategy right now. I think the secrecy at this point is about getting attention. He saw it did wonders for the value of his book. Which like his strategy, is nothing special.

Its amusing how secretive this dude is. Its not like he's protecting valuable ideas anymore.

Only in the stock market do these things exist and they exist simply because you can check stock prices daily. If you know the business well it's pretty cut and dry. If you're a sole proprietor and you keep having to invest new capital, eventually you realize its a lost cause and close shop. If you see the business grow and start seeing cash on cash returns, you know you've got a good one. When you can internalize these things as the owner of a publicly traded company, you're where you should be. If you get nervous just cuz the stock goes down, stick to index funds... If you are an investor in individual companies, you should be able to discern "health of the company" from "stock price gyrations".

Except how do you limit your losses to 10% rolling the dice on momo names? A good majority of these get their momo from earnings. So unless you are basically just a day trader, I feel like seeking out companies that by and large are the biggest earnings movers, and expecting to cut losses at 10% is a bit flawed...FB was the momo poster boy until its 25% earnings related gap down last year. A 10% stop wouldn't have done any good there.

LOL the zebras guide the game to the favorable outcome...Jesus

Oh watch. On one end, NFL's Curry beats GOAT on amazing 10 point 4th quarter comeback, OR GOAT leads last minute comeback AGAIN in dual for the ages. Notice every other play is at the discretion of poor officiating. NFL has become a total joke. The game is officiated to produce the best ratings and most drastic results/matchups. Its so predictable its sad. Its no longer sports.

Here you go. NFL trying its hardest to turn Maholmes into their version of Steph Curry. No better way than stage a 10 point 4th quarter comeback against Brady and the Pats. NFL is no better than WWF these days.

Indeed, but just wait, the only certainty is that the refs will find a way to make the game interesting. The only certainty in the NFL these days.

I am not a fan of the NFL. The main reason is players are only out for themselves and the game is entirely dictated by the referees. One call negates dominating defensively. The QB protection measures are pathetic as well. I could not believe not only this call, but the possession before they just ignored blatant pass interference.

Precision Castparts and Lubrizol are another $50B or so of easily identifiable value. I would also value the stock portfolio on a liquidation basis, which must account for their tax liability which in many cases, comes from a very low cost basis.

Unless we're all going to present audited trading reports, then boasting of returns is useless. Comments can be verified though. So yea...

+1. It’s also probably not a bad time to put (back) on some macro hedges (SPX puts and the like) if you’re so inclined. But generally speaking, the US is set up in a way that ensures that almost all bad macro events end up being temporary, so if you’re invested in high quality companies and your investment horizon is long enough it’s probably perfectly fine to ignore them. Even if the trade negotiations with China go wrong and end up causing a huge recession, no big deal, it just means Trump will lost the election in 2020 and the tariffs will be taken down by his successor. Agree with everything including the bold. Also like Spekulatius said above with GS. For a split second, you had things that were absurdly cheap. That typically corrects quickly. When it does, you rebalance. You basically got 10-20% moves in anything you could throw a dart at. The next 10% I don't think will be that quick or easy. But it will come.

"I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." -Wayne Gretzky

Same thing as before... When stocks are cheap, ignore the noise.

I think it all just comes back to focusing on quality stuff. Spekulatius if I remember, was positive on FDX. I don't own it but had the same views. Not too long ago its trading at what? 14x? Nothing really changes, sentiment shifts, fed hikes 25bp. Uhm, now its a 9x??? Sign me up! Either I get it at a depressed multiple and keep buying more. Or, something statistically extraordinary has to happen, IE earnings need to contract like 35%, to justify the current price... These sort of things to me should be common sense for people buying individual names. Myself, I'm not even a huge BRK fanboy, but banks fell like 30%+(BRK is a very safe way to play high quality financials), BRK is a smart capital allocator, insider buying below $200 plus BRK buyback, low PE/P/B in historical context. Do I need to know anything else to pull the trigger at $195???

IDK, I say it with the same common sense conviction I had a month ago; the sky doesn't fall for no reason. So when something like that looks like its occurring you just go to the information available and in that case nothing changed. Easy as that.

I couldn't help but think of the hilarity that was ensuing all but a month ago and the panic that took place. Yes even here, where you'd think people had better temperament and ability to ignore the noise, chaos ensued. An entire year's worth of returns were there for the taking; to be had in a couple weeks, if one just read the situation properly.

Well, to provide you with some modest pushback, very few of the things you listed, actually have anything to do with value investing specifically. They could apply to any strategy and deal more or less with your own temperament when it comes to handling draw-downs. Investing isnt life though, so if it takes up an excessively large portion of your mental space, and you are not comfortable with this, then I applaud you deciding to cut ties.