Gregmal

So I do recall at one point there was a ton of talk about how "reckless" states like Florida, Arizona, Georgia and Texas were with their responses and in some gases, lack of lockdowns. How they were going to be major disasters. And so today, out of curiosity I swung back to the numbers and none of those states are currently showing numbers that fit any of the forecasted descriptions. Why do we think this is?

Hardly the deal of a lifetime, but I finally threw in the towel and bought a few shares of Costco at 295.

Been thinking about these for a while, and think they fit in here, but in our realm of the universe, JLL, MMI and CBRE do a fine job of collecting their pound of flesh regardless.

ESRT and PCYO

Loopnet is a total waste of time. There is a massive public to private disconnect. I didn't see the NOI on a lazy glance, but thats a 7.5-8.5 cap property. The problem with the public companies is theyre all kingdom builders. So you're not getting anyone saying, "we're trading at a 10 cap but are easily a 6" and winding things down... The REIT structure is also sometimes heavily inefficient in light of the kingdom builder context. You cant tell a discount to NAV story and then issue stock, so it's leverage, leverage, leverage, then whoops.. CREXI is where its at though if you're looking to keep up with listings and get access to brokers. https://www.crexi.com/properties/314749/florida-silver-star-shopping-center

Theyre definitely more durable. But I think a lot of the issue is that value investors of a certain ilk just continuously get jaded by scripture. Falsely lulling themselves into being content being wrong, because under a certain mindset, value investing doctrine lets one think that when wrong, you arent really wrong but rather just need to be patient and buy more. A dangerous thing. Especially with bad businesses, which for the past decade, seems to have become a trend for even the best managers out there.

Have you read their research? If so, and you disagree with their figures / outcome, can you explain why? Everyone has their research and everyone makes bold claims. Motley Fool beats the shit out of the market too apparently. Financial Services firm research is mostly bs. Especially stuff done only for accredited investors. I'd even point out that unless they have additional disclosures, spamming Twitter like they were doing not long ago is a major no-no in the business as well. I think since they only market to exempt participants, they can get away with it, but its definitely sketchy.

Yea margin rates are the only reason I use IBKR. I have begun migrating some of my smaller cap names out though. Its a total waste of time for anything $500M market cap or under. Their margin requirements are awful for those. But if you can find $1B+ideas, its a beautiful thing.

https://www.harris.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Monthly%20Economic%20Crisis%20Support%20Act%20Bill%20Text.pdf This is the most insane thing Ive ever seen. Married couple with 3 kids who collectively earns $150k a year will be getting $10,000 a month from the government! Frugal folks like those on here could pray this pandemic lasts 2-3 years and then just retire.

This is all great and sounds cool, but what these guys do is effectively gamble away the entirety of your allocation with the hope that under certain circumstances, their wagers will result in a big windfall. Peronsally, I'd love to have a job where the expected outcome is that I lose all of your money, with no consequence. Actually scratch that.... with the expectation that next year you will give me more to do the exact same thing.... Why do these guys get so loudmouthed and boisterous during times where they hit? Because these schemes revolve around marketing.

Huckabee recently stated that any elected official supporting a shutdown, should not be allowed to take a paycheck until their constituents are allowed to get back to work. So simple, but yet so true. Why are these guys getting paid? Total scum.

Yea, IDK but it seems the narrative has shifted quite a bit over the years. Buffett is widely regarded as one of the greatest INVESTORS ever. Guy in his heyday used leverage and was trading like a madman. Its at best an excuse that now he is an operator. Or that he's actually not a stock guy, but someone who runs businesses. I thought this(below) was interesting and probably mirrored some of the chat that happened here in another thread regarding Buffett and Musk. Buffet is not an innovator or business builder(in the organic sense), he's a capital allocator. And one of the greatest ever. Well, up until maybe 15 years ago that is. Now, for whatever reason, he does so little investing that people seem to think he is something that he's never been. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffett-may-be-one-of-the-most-admired-men-in-all-of-finance-but-elon-musk-isnt-buying-into-the-mystique-2020-05-07

Started a small position in SLB

Yea it is limited capacity but I'm more concerned, as a demand indicator, with "Sell out". This to me indicates they clearly have room to increase capacity and the people will be there. I'd be concerned if you're at 30% capacity and having trouble selling that. Such as the case with some airlines.

We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc. In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age. In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life. Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. My view is it's largely diet based. All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by. While these and other points mentioned above are all valid, I highly doubt they can fully explain the huge discrepancy between the developed and the developing countries. And especially considering the big factor that should make situations worse in developing countries -- their lack of good healthcare systems. I do wonder whether how some countries do not care much about this virus and this is being reflected in recognizing/reporting the COVID death numbers. My wife's coworker (they work in healthcare), who has families in Bangladesh, told her yesterday that while COVID is spreading there, people are more worried about going hungry than the virus. Suppose your people, media, and government do not really recognize this virus as anything novel or serious... In such countries, even if people die due to COVID or related illness, they might not warrant much attention and won't be tracked like some doomsday counter. In that sense, is COVID another "first world problem"? Yup. I think this is on the money. Media coverage and fear mongering have made this what it is. Its now widely recognized that this was here much earlier than some people thought, and guess what? Life was totally normal and folks got on with their normal business and the economy was humming along just fine. So yes, its a shame we manufactured a horror story and certainly did impair parts of the economy, probably unnecessarily. But, in other news. Shanghai Disney tickets sold out. RCL is reporting normal booking volume for 2021, guess not everyone is living under a table in their basement.

Good interview. I like Zell and he's got some insightful things to say. It is true, outside of the net lease market, there's not really any transactions occurring. It might be perplexing or scary at first, but I think the answer is relatively simple. Once a month the rent comes due. These assets trade on their cash flows. Until it is determined that the revenue streams are either a) permanently lower, or b) back to normal, most people, both on the buy side and the sell side, dont really want to take the risk of making a mistake.

Of course this will be ignored by all the blabbermouths who attacked folks for bringing up such possibilities....Because gosh darn, it took away from our zombie apocalypse narrative... I didnt see it either. ;) Ive been busy over redigging the holes to move the goal posts to retroactively prove what antibodies and these stories have told us. ::) Looking back in the thread I took some pretty good heat for this. Im for one glad this info keeps coming out. Good to see. Yea, the way its shaping up, the ones who proclaimed themselves right about everything after like 2-3 days are going to end up having been wrong about literally everything.... ironic.

Of course this will be ignored by all the blabbermouths who attacked folks for bringing up such possibilities....Because gosh darn, it took away from our zombie apocalypse narrative...

Thats not what Im saying at all. Posting an opinion from someone on Twitter isn't a fact. Thats all. Frankly, Ive always been of the opinion that the majority of people on Twitter are total losers. Specifically ones that sit around all day commenting on stupid shit like memes and raising controversies that dont really have any purpose, POTUS 45 would be the grandest example of this, but 95% of Twitter users fall into this category. Its a way for little people to feel important. Very, very self inflating being able to # and tweet @ important people like celebrities and media personalities too; a cheap lotto ticket shot at your 15 minutes of fame. On a separate note, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/sweden-says-coronavirus-cases-likely-country-early-november/ But hey, IT NEVER, EVER, EVER, EVA, coulda been in California or NY in January or February....

Only things engraved in stone tablets count, right? Because it's the medium that matters, not what is written, if it makes sense, and who said it and what the original source is and the fact that it can be verified elsewhere, right? I mean, I thought you'd like that I also enjoy Trump's favorite medium and source of information. ...as you write this on an internet forum, much higher in the hierarchy.. ::) Im not saying or disputing any of that. Just pointing out the irony of telling a guy to bring facts when the bulk of the stuff you post are Twitter links and opinions or skewed interpretations from biased people. An indirect way of giving legitimacy to you own opinion(unless you feel different then the messages displayed in what you post).

If you have any facts to share on COVID19 or the response to the crisis, go for it. Otherwise, you're the Trump propaganda bot. Liberty I know this is 2020 and all, but Twitter links arent facts either. Nor are the tweets themselves.

We can mention that one from one of the women, but I believe the more damaging accusation was this one from Ford as reported by The Guardian: "led her into a bedroom, pinned her to the bed and groped her, attempting to remove the bathing suit she was wearing and putting his hand over her mouth to stop her from screaming before she was able to escape." They investigated that didn't they? Or at least held hearings...now though, they dont want to and no one who was screaming for hearings and investigations is doing so now.... they've exposed themselves as frauds. Remember that stupid and sexist rallying cry about "believe all women" or something? Not anymore? Or just not when the guy you want to be president is accused?

Yea, I dont know but the frauds and hypocrites have been revealing themselves in full color with Biden. At least I've been honest. I could give two shits about how awful a person Trump is or how Biden is a corrupt creep but I could live with him in the WH as well. But the fake contempt people disgusted by Trumps behavior are now showing its all just blabber as they excuse and downplay and rationalize the very same issues with Joe...The #metoo frauds like Milano. Believe all women except when its inconvenient to you, right? Tara Reade doesn't remember what she put in the Senate complaint. She goes out of her way to draw attention to Biden in her complaint filed with the Senate but then doesn't even mention the assault? She complained that he made her uncomfortable and so she was assigned a new spot where she would be away from him. What else are they going to do, reassign Biden? First she went to law school, then a Biden staffer, then a singer, an actress, a cat lady. Her history doesn't point to stability -- drama, yes. Singer, actress -- attention getter. That said, it doesn't for certain mean that she is lying. Those people do exist though and instability and drama are red flags hallmarks. So she is a mix between Julie Swetnick and Christina Ford.... While your response is a reasonable one, people dont get to play this card. Not after how they behaved with the Kavanaugh allegations. Not after the incessant whining about quality of character with Trump. The presumption of innocence was destroyed by liberals over the past 4 years. You dont get it back because your guy is running. Trump is a narcissistic clown, and Biden is a world class establishment creep. Those are our candidate for POTUS. At least lets treat them the same and stop pretending this is a case of Jesus running against Hitler. Try as they might, the Conservatives cannot wash their hands clean when they find one witness against one Liberal. Clinton, yes, there were more cockroaches in the kitchen. When we find another, then another, and another, with Biden we will then know we have a creep. Not even close yet. He's almost 80 and he has been in office for decades and all you've got to show for it is a single complaining woman who cannot remember what she complained about in her report. Yea, well, this happened about a dozen years more recently than when Kavanaugh supposedly pulled out his pee pee at a frat party....

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