Gregmal

Ha! Hopefully. I heard Jonathan Litt(le) thinks its a short though. If it goes to zero its bread and butter sandwiches 3x a day. But, yea the hidden item is a bad La Croix habit, maybe a half dozen a day. And we (used to) go out to eat a bunch as well. And spend $200+ a meal on sushi every Saturday. Plus my boating hobby. This new thing has basically been coronavirus inspired. Good excuse to get out, and cooking is then the activity. Store is 5 minutes from the house, takes about 20 minutes in the store, so maybe a half hour or so a day and then an hour of prep and cooking. Lemons out of lemonade. The kiddos have also been a factor. Anyone with little kids will tell you, they pick what they eat. So despite attempts to get them to eat better, its usually binging through the same stuff until they get sick of it. 3 hots dogs for lunch and then a huge bag of grapes for dinner, for a week. Then its Mac and cheese every other meal. The strangest one was fried conch and alligator my son had in the Florida Keys. Got back to NJ and wanted that almost every day for about two weeks. Had to go to the big Chinese Market 45 minutes away to get those things. And dividends are to be reinvested! That way we lose everything on the path to nil.

I think if anything the way to look at the market is like 1970s blackjack. Where, IMO, the deck is stacked in a certain direction and the payout for wagers or hedges is favorable. But who knows, maybe that direction is up lol. I am, and would try to avoid gap downs or predictable, but surprise negative news flow, IE certain states routinely release certain data at certain times. This all coming from someone who's 100% committed to investing in some of the dirtiest, coronavirus stricken businesses. Added to ESRT 16 times over the past 5 weeks. That said, for the first time ever, I do actually have a small cash position. Unique times for sure.

Yea I dont know. Market is a little wild to me right now. It seems as long as the government doesnt shut things down, the market is ok with the virus. Which does kind of make sense within the context of, again, the flu. 15% of the population get the flu annually, 30m urgent care/hospital visits annually, corona still nowhere near those figures, and the flu never moves the market. If the government shut down the economy every winter for the flu though....

Most of the cases occurred in a few counties in LA and Orange County. The outbreak occurred after the lockdown was eased and bars were allowed to open. From a few anecdotal reports that I have seen causes are: 1) family festivities (Father’s Day, Memorial Day), Those May explain the timing of the delayed wave. 2) bars Due to socioeconomic reasons, emigrants are more susceptible apparently and that is what we have seen in the LA area as well. LA always had more virus circulating than other areas but it seems like above factors caused the runway train wreck. Again, the virus isn’t political, it doesn’t care about red or blue. If it starts to circulate freely and you don’t hammer it early and hard, the exponential growth will have its way and the results are what we are seeing. I do think the social gatherings resulting from holidays plays into it, which is why, with the biggest one of the summer coming up, especially one that is rabidly celebrated by people of certain political leanings who may or may not want to wear face masks, cases could explode. But I still dont get California. They just dont seem to have a clue or a plan. You can look at Texas, or Arizona and see what their plan is. They just better get it right, and given there "plan", that basically means making sure you dont run out of hospital beds. NY/NJ/Conn have a clear "plan". Obviously this differs greatly from TX/AZ/FL. But California its just kind of head scratching.

Greg, As you perhaps already know, I'm pretty observant to facts posted here on CoBF, and by all means much-much more observant how those so-called facts are processed and handled. So, to me, you are here just such a low-life cheat fiddling with your numbers that you post here on CoBF, dividing by four, instead of dividing by four-and-something! [ : - D] I hope everything is evolving well over time for your part, and yours! Take care [ : - ) ] [The rest that we're talking about here on CoBF is "just money" [and all that].] In short - now that I actually think about it - there is no capital gain comparable to become a parent again! [ : - ) ] Haha thanks John. Yes, things are well. Just another "period of adjustment" as seems to currently be the norm in the world. I'll do one more day, and then stop posting my daily meals. Just trying to emphasize how it is possible to eat well and cheap. One thing I have found very helpful is that going to the store daily and buying only really what I need for the days meals, greatly cuts back on waste/saves money. Previously, or when I go to Costco, its very easy to fall into a "I'll have some of this, and a bit of that, and oh, throw this in the cart too" mindset. Much of that stuff either goes bad or sits in the pantry collecting dust. Breakfast Eggs Benedict: Eggs 2.49 carton Hollandaise sauce 1.29 packet English muffins 1.50 a sleeve for store brand French toast for kids 2.79 for a box that lasts a week 6 coffees(I drink too much) K cup style 80 ct is $20 Apple juice 2.99 a jug, lasts 2 weeks Lunch Pierogi 3.79 a tray Sautéed Onion 1.99 lb Fish sticks for the kids 2.99 a box (although typically I catch the walleye and wife breads them, so free, unless you want to incorporate all the boating/fishing expenses, which will be an obnoxious add on) Dinner Skate Wings 7.99 lb Asparagus 1.99 a bundle capers 1.79 a jar couscous 1.99 a box pizza bites for the kids 1.99 a bag which lasts 2 meals

How about some 3d printed, plant based steak? https://nypost.com/2020/07/01/see-3d-steaks-printed-using-plant-based-fat-blood-and-muscle/

Gavin Newsome seems more vegetable, than vegetable eater. Cesspool West Coast has basically been in semi lockdown the entire time and still cant seem to figure out what it needs to do. Of course, it's LA leading the way with the virus, but now it seems all of the state will start suffering.

I don't think Fauci is politicized by people as much as he is by the various media outlets. He is constantly misquoted and misrepresented. If you watched(or listened) to his testimony the other day, you would see that. There was a specific encounter with Rand Paul particularly, which made many headlines. But the actual exchange was quite different; with Fauci explaining that basically "hey, everybody is asking me all these questions and we just dont know everything. We do our best with what we have available to make decisions, but I often get quoted out of context, and often its because people ask me "what do you think about such and such". The answer is always to proceed with caution. But I didn't say "no baseball" or "no school". But that is what they put in the headline" This is paraphrased, but I do agree he seems like a genuinely reasonable guy.

So today... breakfast cereal 1.79 box lasts a week oatmeal 3.99 for Quaker lasts 2-3 weeks bacon $3.99 Orange juice, 2.50 bottle lasts several days lunch BLT wheat bread 1.89 loaf, lasts a week, leftover bacon from breakfast, tomato 2.99 lb, lettuce 1.99 a head dinner angel hair pasta 1.49 box peas .79c a can oyster mushrooms 6.99 lb hot dogs for the kids- 89c for buns and 32 hot dogs for $11.99 at Costco Entire family fed, tons of leftovers for dogs as well. Cost less than $20 for the day

If steak is too expensive these days, go with lobster. Between China tensions and Covid shutdowns, prices have plummeted last few months. $5.99-7.99 lb (depending on the week) by me.

Starter in RPTX

Maybe I'm an outlier, but I doubt it, being in NJ. Ive found that grocery prices over the past year have gotten exceptionally cheap. Maybe its an implementation or greater promotion of store brands, but I regularly marvel at the fact that I can go to the supermarket, on a daily basis, and buy lunch, snacks, and dinner for the family(of 4, plus dogs) for under $30. For instance, Breakfast: Box of store brand Frosted Flakes 1.79; lasts a week Eggs 2.79, lasts 1-2 weeks Orange Juice 2.50, lasts 5-7 days Milk 3.39 per gallon, lasts 3 days Lunch: Mac and Cheese for kids, .79c a box Chicken Nuggets 2.99, lasts for 2 meals Hanger Steak 6.99 lb Chopped salad $2.29 Dinner: Salmon $7.99 lb Rice Pilaf 1.19 a box Brussel Sprouts 2.99 lb Shrimp $6.99 lb Pasta .89 a box Butter $1 per stick So as you can see, breakfast $10-15 covers a family of 4 for a week. Lunch you're running $10 a day, and dinner probably $10 a day as well. Insane to me considering before kids I would regularly spend $50 a meal, and often $100 for dinner.

This is really gonna bite economically in FL and AZ. There's a ton of Canadians that just pack it in in the winter and just go down to FL. My guess is that it's not gonna happen this year. They don't care about Trump/DeSantis political posturing, they would prefer to stay alive, and I don't think any insurance company is gonna sell them a COVID policy. These Canadian also tend to be of the wealthier variety that have a lot of money to spend. The same thing goes triple for AZ. Canadians own so much of that place it may as well be the 11th province. While this is all true, it is also almost certainly temporary. The virus will likely be irrelevant in 2 years. Which the history books will remember, in the economic sense, as a textbook recession.

I think when investing, one needs to remove emotion as much as possible. You have to think/be a socio-path. Its not "feel good" or anything to boast about, but its how things work. People essentially are cogs or data points. There is a great line from Big Short where Ben Rickard says, "you know what I hate about banking, it reduces people to numbers"....Part of the reason I moved out of the financial world as much as possible after getting setup, and have the goal to be removed from it completely within the next few years. Its not for everybody, but its how the game is played. Ask any PM honestly if they'd trade 1M senior citizens for an S&P rebound in 2021 and they all likely vote yes. I think if you are in the markets you have to be aware of these things and anticipate those directions. Its the stance that much of the US is taking through policy action.

Well, to be fair, it's because certain people on the thread literally never blame Trump. They literally don't acknowledge it when he's the person most responsible for America's mess. Like, he's the dude where the buck is supposed to stop. If you're looking for politicians who have the most leverage to fight the disease, this is the guy who has it, by far. But some people seem to be trying to desperately deflect responsibility from him for some bizarre reason, pretending that he and the outbreak are in two completely different universes, never actually interacting with each other at all. And they also seem to believe that the Governor of the 20th smallest state is actually the most important leader in the entire country. I guess maybe people skipped their civics class to go smoke outside? I dunno. I find it quite peculiar. But to get back on topic, while we wait on the deaths arising from the current surge of infections, it's worth noting that we ought to get fewer deaths per capita infected not simply because of the age of infected people, but because treatment has improved in a very real, significant way. This was one of the key goals of flattening the curve and doing the lockdowns, and it's starting to be achieved. We've delayed infections long enough that some people who would have died if they had been infected three months ago will now live if they get infected today. I speculate that the number of saved lives in the USA alone will be in the tens of thousands. I think that's a marvellous thing. It's ok--his enablers think it's worth it to protect/enable him despite the lasting damage which is being done to the United States. Like I said, more triggered by an NFL player kneeling or CHAZ but when 120k are dead it's, "well you have to think about the economic trade offs" or "it's only the elderly anyway". It would be one thing if Trump started taking this pandemic seriously in March (which would have been late as it was). Instead, he held two indoor rallies in places with surging cases last week and said "the pandemic is ending". It is no longer negligence/incompetence that you can merely accuse him of, but instead of actively seeding the virus. And yeah--big question mark as to why those individuals who claim not to be biased yet hark on about people protesting/Cuomo can't even muster some critique of the administration. Anyway, this is the coronavirus thread--and DJT will certainly not get a free pass here. Greggie said Cuomo deserves blame because 25% of American deaths have happened in NY State. Well wanna hear another statistic? 25% of global deaths are in one country: the United States--who you gonna hold accountable for that? I know to some people the answer will never be Trump. Well for one, if US is 1/4th then Cuomo still has some pretty big market share on the global scale as well. But regardless, its pointless. Try to have a non politically charged coronavirus conversation, Dalal is AWOL. Heck we can even talk repeatedly about how many different parties, including the Trump administration, have dropped the ball. Then give it a few minutes and Dalal will be back pushing his narrative and claiming no one ever blames Trump.... Sorry, Greggie you continue to mislead about me, please get your memory checked. I've been posting here in covid thread since late Feb warning (when your boy called it "a hoax") and you've been dismissing the threat consistently (often wrong, never in doubt). Mocking graphs you do not understand (even basic exponential trends) and you think I'm AWOL without politics. And yet you also follow me closely on PTON and TSLA threads (lol, sup pup). Maybe you think my posts are political because you lack the ability to interpret quantitative data and so you mock the graphs I post as well as Taleb's insights and think all I do is talk politics. A shame you can't understand any of the other stuff. Stick to REITs--real estate is much easier to understand. I bounced from this thread for a while once U.S. numbers started heading down around late April-May, but I came back as of few weeks ago because the threat is back (I was back before the headlines on FL, TX, AZ). I'm the kind of guy who focuses on details when they are relevant and I move on when they are not. Nothing to do with politics--if you can't get that thru your head, I ain't here to help you out. And LOL, you want to know my positions on TSLA and PTON? They should be obvious. If you can't figure them out from my posts, I question your ability to interpret things. I'm not here to help you out by laying out my exact positions anyway. In fact, I don't give a damn what you think. If anything, you are an example for me on how not to think. I enjoy learning from the mistakes of others and you are a great teacher in that regard. Amusing that you seem to paint me as overly political, but have nothing to say about the like of cubsfan whose every post is political, not that you're too far off from that. After all, you spend quite a bit of time in the politics section. Projection is a common phenomenon. Yup, more of the same. When you dont commit to anything, its all upside, no downside. Never wrong, always right. When you peddle flavor of the month Robinhood stocks but refuse to even answer a simple "do you own it" question, its by design. if it goes down; I dont own it, I sold it....if it goes up, you keep posturing. Highly predictable. Same with the virus stuff. Your graphs are not proprietary...sorry to break it to you. If you panicked in February/March you made a massive mistake(but again never having committed to an investment stance allows one wiggle room). And even for those things that have been impacted, assuming the balance sheet isn't upside down, you've got a hell of an opportunity in certain places, IE NYC-centric businesses. Art of the Deal level stuff right here, courtesy of Dalal.

Well, to be fair, it's because certain people on the thread literally never blame Trump. They literally don't acknowledge it when he's the person most responsible for America's mess. Like, he's the dude where the buck is supposed to stop. If you're looking for politicians who have the most leverage to fight the disease, this is the guy who has it, by far. But some people seem to be trying to desperately deflect responsibility from him for some bizarre reason, pretending that he and the outbreak are in two completely different universes, never actually interacting with each other at all. And they also seem to believe that the Governor of the 20th smallest state is actually the most important leader in the entire country. I guess maybe people skipped their civics class to go smoke outside? I dunno. I find it quite peculiar. But to get back on topic, while we wait on the deaths arising from the current surge of infections, it's worth noting that we ought to get fewer deaths per capita infected not simply because of the age of infected people, but because treatment has improved in a very real, significant way. This was one of the key goals of flattening the curve and doing the lockdowns, and it's starting to be achieved. We've delayed infections long enough that some people who would have died if they had been infected three months ago will now live if they get infected today. I speculate that the number of saved lives in the USA alone will be in the tens of thousands. I think that's a marvellous thing. It's ok--his enablers think it's worth it to protect/enable him despite the lasting damage which is being done to the United States. Like I said, more triggered by an NFL player kneeling or CHAZ but when 120k are dead it's, "well you have to think about the economic trade offs" or "it's only the elderly anyway". It would be one thing if Trump started taking this pandemic seriously in March (which would have been late as it was). Instead, he held two indoor rallies in places with surging cases last week and said "the pandemic is ending". It is no longer negligence/incompetence that you can merely accuse him of, but instead of actively seeding the virus. And yeah--big question mark as to why those individuals who claim not to be biased yet hark on about people protesting/Cuomo can't even muster some critique of the administration. Anyway, this is the coronavirus thread--and DJT will certainly not get a free pass here. Greggie said Cuomo deserves blame because 25% of American deaths have happened in NY State. Well wanna hear another statistic? 25% of global deaths are in one country: the United States--who you gonna hold accountable for that? I know to some people the answer will never be Trump. Well for one, if US is 1/4th then Cuomo still has some pretty big market share on the global scale as well. But regardless, its pointless. Try to have a non politically charged coronavirus conversation, Dalal is AWOL. Heck we can even talk repeatedly about how many different parties, including the Trump administration, have dropped the ball. Then give it a few minutes and Dalal will be back pushing his narrative and claiming no one ever blames Trump....

What I or you think is irrelevant. How do the financial markets value an 80 year old with a 3-5 year further life expectancy? How much do they contribute to the economy? If we are talking about investing, and penalizing markets/GDP/company multiples, these figures dont exactly move the needle. However, completely shutting down everything, does. Is it surprising that we continue to see improving economic figures, even in states with rising cases? Is it possible the economy can run better than expected even with a pandemic, as long as governments do not interfere? These are the investment ramifications I think one needs to look at. Whereas my parents/grandparents or yours can die, and we'd be effected, but the guy down the street doesnt care, and neither does Mr. Market.

That is all true but in a larger respect I think its relevant to the economic effects. If 40 is your threshold, but 32-33 and above are not contagious and show no symptoms....wouldnt it help to know how many of these on a % basis there are? Or just simply use the 33 cutoff. If, for examples sake, 85% are not contagious and asymptomatic, there really isn't any basis for shutting anything down, ever. If that % is only 25%, then its a different story. Again, part of the problem with this. Too much data and enough to support any narrative one wants. 120k deaths and all is tragic from a human being emotional perspective, but in terms of the markets and the economy, its pretty meaningless, especially if most are not major cogs in the economy anyway, and even more so especially if half are nursing home folks. In fact, if you know anyone who's ever had to pay for a loved one to stay in a nursing home...its very expensive and really puts a strain on your discretionary spending.

Of course they all deserve blame and everybody it seems has acknowledged that. But then whenever someone disagrees with you, its just some blanket "Trump minion, you never blame him" rhetoric. Back to corona, dont you find it at least moderately troubling that somebody can come from a region that has claimed no Covid for weeks, test positive, have those results brought back to the origin country, and their leaders say, "this doesnt count"? Why isn't everyone using the same test standards? Isn't it grossly misleading to compare certain stats when some are using a 25-30 and others a 40?

I mean I know others see it...but even the way you, as a NYer, whose state was by far the worst out of any in the world! now gloat and play politics because it appears others may now go through surges of the virus, although again, likely NOWHERE near as bad as NY....and yet you sit here and grandstand acting as if you guys were the model or blueprint for how to beat the thing! LOL As you keep citing total death count, you dont feel its important to mention how many of those your state leadership is responsible for?(right now its about 25% of all US deaths; not exactly immaterial)

Dalal you have spent the entire Covid thread attacking and belittling anybody who presents informations contrary to your narrative. Yes, you act like a pos quite often, as others have pointed out. Why is it necessary? You again continue to misrepresent things for your own agenda. I have never mocked dying NYers...only pointed out that the city has indeed been a cesspool and a public health disaster for a long, long time and that something like this was surely just throwing fuel on the fire. That public policy has been horrendous and the current leaders have only amplified that. That there has been mismanagement everywhere, from the top down, but you only want to talk about certain of them. But as usual, in classic Dalal fashion, you respond the way you did, rather than address anything of substance.

Bought some SWKH

Do you have any graphs of daily deaths? Sorry, that doesn't fit their narrative. You know what they say, however, "wait two weeks" I wonder what happened in late May and early June that could have been a catalyst for the increase?? Of course, “this time is different”, we should not worry about mortality going up because covid is not a real threat, right? Yes please tell me what happened in late May/early June in AZ, FL, TX... Well, if you want to ignore the protests, then the answer is nothing. Nothing different happened. The increase in social interaction has been continuously increasing since the middle of April. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ebb02WuUEAIUcmb?format=png&name=medium Lol! The huge protests in AZ, TX, and FL? Why you leave out NYC, DC, MN, cities in the EU which had by far much larger protests tho? Contradicts the narrative? The cult is strong with this one. Note how cultists can’t even bring themselves to name their Daddy anymore...a sign of shame It's at this point, when someone starts using epithets and insults, that I stop engaging. You're dealing with somebody who is the literal definition of the pot calling the kettle black when it comes to partisanship. His post frequency has a 100% correlation to case outbreaks, media fear mongering, and political narratives. He refuses to bring up or address counterpoints that do not fit his narrative, instead mostly ignoring them or simply branding anyone who raises the question something derogatory. He has also, on this thread: -been caught lying by multiple people -caught retroactively modifying content of his previous posts(worried about appearance/being right, little narcissist?" -refused to make any sort of commitment to a position or stance but rather spew innuendo and narratives -disappears as soon as the political narrative dies down(end April-June) It really is evident the irony of somebody "calling out Trump" for behaviors he embodies himself. Worried about appearance, refuses to commit to anything, deliberately misleading and divisive, regularly misrepresents issues or leaves out pertinent data, craves attention, claims "Im right, you're wrong" incessantly and without regard for the actual results... These type of folks bring nothing to the table. The type of person that comes to an investment forum and promotes retail investor favorites but then gets overwhelmed and folds like a cheap chair when pressed with a simple question like "do you even own PTON?". You arent bringing anything to the table posting basic charts that anyone with eyes can find on the internet, or quoting someone from Twitter who has the same opinion as you... Its amusing when you have clowns calling out clowns for being clowns. He wants to ramble repeatedly about failures of leadership but either ignore, or claim "his guy" did a great job when the facts are that even NYT is now stating the his state, the NYers, are likely responsible for more than half the entire cases in the country! And then his state, will still likely hold all records for cases, deaths, hospitalizations, etc. Classic example of dissonance. Like a guy driving a 2006 Hyundai mocking that old, shitty, beat up 2011 BMW....maybe he's just mad because he lost his red nose and is nervous about being called a racist for wearing face paint....who knows. This is an investment forum, and everybody over time will be right and wrong plenty(if you're honest and dont go back and modify your posts) and the purpose is ultimately to gain some sort of benefit, from an investment perspective. So identifying and discarding people who berate anyone who disagrees with them over absolutely petty and insignificant things, is a good idea. Sure, people are wrong to say, new Covid cases but no increase in deaths....getting Covid does not equal instant death. It does lag. But being a piece of shit in how you respond to anyone who suggests that perhaps deaths totals have lagged more than normal, is unnecessary. One should be open to everything, but also challenge everything. Its interesting there has been zero efforts to tackle the "cycle threshold" issue. But again, not surprising because it disbands a good chunk of the political benefits inherent when ignoring it. I think somebody who has done an excellent job of bringing their interpretation of the data forward and laying out "this is how I see things playing out, and this is how im expressing it through the market" is alwaysdrawing. Rather than "FIRE", "FIRE", "LOOK TESLA IS GREAT"---do you own TSLA? "NO COMMENT", "OH PTON IS THE NEXT AAPL", do you own it?- "I'M NOT ANSWERING".... On cycle threshold https://www.infectiousdiseaseadvisor.com/home/topics/covid19/ct-value-may-inform-when-patients-with-covid-19-can-be-safely-discharged/ Why is a positive case in one country not a positive case in another? And this is what we want to base our "data" interpretations on? Just like with some folks here, when a country wants to change the results, the easiest way to do that is to move around the goal posts. https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202006250010

Making the masks political was indeed very stupid. But otherwise, as I said probably back in February or March, there is a massive difference between being able to do a China style lockdown in China, and in America. Americans are different people. It shows with the obesity, focus on materialism, me first Twitter and Instagram stuff, etc. It doesnt help you when the high courts are also declaring it unconstitutional. Americans will do what they want. Even in NJ there were multiple cases of businesses just refusing to stay shut and people continuing to go to them. Same in Michigan and Texas. The difference hopefully between now and March is that the states have had time to prepare for the hospitalizations and come up with contingency plans, if they become out of hand. There really shouldn't be a need to shut the economy down, that was incredibly stupid. When looking strictly at the figures, its said that 10-20% of the total population get the flu every year and you've got 30 million hospital/ER/urgent care visits as a result of it. Worldometers currently has 15,816 serious/critical CV cases. Not looking to get back to a flu vs CV debate, but having plans and protocol in place will be a huge factor in how something unfolds. Given the time everyone has had to prepare, it would be an unforgivable mistake should any state not be ready.

If you have a true lockdown, eventually it is impossible for cases not to eventually go to 0. However, in America, this is simply not possible. Even in places where it is accepted, after 2-3 weeks people will just stop listening. Or the liberals will say protesting doesnt count.