Gregmal

Yea, I dont know but the frauds and hypocrites have been revealing themselves in full color with Biden. At least I've been honest. I could give two shits about how awful a person Trump is or how Biden is a corrupt creep but I could live with him in the WH as well. But the fake contempt people disgusted by Trumps behavior are now showing its all just blabber as they excuse and downplay and rationalize the very same issues with Joe...The #metoo frauds like Milano. Believe all women except when its inconvenient to you, right? Tara Reade doesn't remember what she put in the Senate complaint. She goes out of her way to draw attention to Biden in her complaint filed with the Senate but then doesn't even mention the assault? She complained that he made her uncomfortable and so she was assigned a new spot where she would be away from him. What else are they going to do, reassign Biden? First she went to law school, then a Biden staffer, then a singer, an actress, a cat lady. Her history doesn't point to stability -- drama, yes. Singer, actress -- attention getter. That said, it doesn't for certain mean that she is lying. Those people do exist though and instability and drama are red flags hallmarks. So she is a mix between Julie Swetnick and Christina Ford.... While your response is a reasonable one, people dont get to play this card. Not after how they behaved with the Kavanaugh allegations. Not after the incessant whining about quality of character with Trump. The presumption of innocence was destroyed by liberals over the past 4 years. You dont get it back because your guy is running. Trump is a narcissistic clown, and Biden is a world class establishment creep. Those are our candidate for POTUS. At least lets treat them the same and stop pretending this is a case of Jesus running against Hitler.

Yea, I dont know but the frauds and hypocrites have been revealing themselves in full color with Biden. At least I've been honest. I could give two shits about how awful a person Trump is or how Biden is a corrupt creep but I could live with him in the WH as well. But the fake contempt people disgusted by Trumps behavior are now showing its all just blabber as they excuse and downplay and rationalize the very same issues with Joe...The #metoo frauds like Milano. Believe all women except when its inconvenient to you, right?

The problem with this "the bottom is right around the corner" thinking, is that it keeps you glued with false hope in an otherwise bad investment. Fairfax has been pretty much exactly what it is today for as long time now. And since I joined this place, theres been a massive opportunity cost for many because they keep finding new ways to convince themselves that "its only a matter of time" before this outperforms...as if its a given. I do agree though, the GOOG and XOM purchases are encouraging. Stop trying to be a genius and just keep it simple.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/03/crowds-gather-to-buy-new-air-jordan-sneakers-in-atlanta-after-lockdown-lifted/ LOL, business as usual...

Its not so much the underperformance, thats part of investing. Ive typically been critical of some of the decision making, or lack thereof, but can live with it because his is still pretty damn sharp and when he talks he seems consistent and often is in the right place. IE stocks are cheap if rates stay low. Big tech is where the future is, etc. Berkshire is loaded with world class people as well. But there also gets to be a point where you have to question what one is saying/doing and what they are doing/saying. So if stocks are cheap if rates stay low, why arent you buying stocks? And if rates are low why do you continue to be massively overweight banks? If you admit "missing" Google, Amazon, etc...years ago, what prevents you from starting to buy them now(or years ago)? If you are incredibly bearish, why do you continue to hold the most economically sensitive companies? If $135B is "not all that much" under certain scenarios, what implications does that have on the rest of the portfolio? And yea, with that comment, you can guarantee the "hoard" is only going to continue to grow. If nothing was attractive back in March, but all the companies in need of capital found it and on better terms, is this not another acknowledgement that maybe the landscape is changing and that there is currently a surplus of cheap capital still waiting to be put to work? Look at the bond market in April; holy fuck. I mean its cool and great and all to have this idea of being a pay day lender or loan shark to the biggest companies in the world, but at the same time, what company in their right mind is dying to do a deal with Berkshire when by now I think both his words and his actions clearly indicate that Berkshire will only do a deal with you if they are ripping you off. Sure you will get desperate companies like Occidental, or Seritage, but for the most part I think he's too anchored to the past here. 08 happened and the playbook changed. Now, if quality companies have liquidity problems, the Fed is there. Greatly eliminating Berkshire's pool of potential deals and muddying what remains in the pool. And then even for that, there's a massive supply of PE firms and whatnot, with tons of cheap capital too. If Google can take some of its cash and make a few hires, and start a PE arm, there is no reason Berkshire cant. Not in any crazy speculative sort of way but in a way that brings in people to scour the horizon for new and exciting businesses. This is how you get into tech and biomedical fields. Every interesting biotech Ive looked at the past half decade...."early investors"...Gates Foundation, Google Ventures. It seems Berkshire is and has been very much in denial about the continued erosion of their advantages and relevance. Warren, more than anybody should know that you have to invest to grow. And instead he's hoarding and banking on businesses in secular decline. But at the same time, I get that, regardless of what he does, people will do mental gymnastics to justify it. My favorite is still "its too small to move the needle for Berkshire"...Like "oh yea, awesome. What a great business"..."Yea, but its too small. Fuck it"...This is an appropriate attitude from a capital allocator? Or the other side of that...He has to buy in size. So take the field of "big enough" companies. Then eliminate ALL of tech. Anything having any relation to ANYONE he's been friendly with because we're scared of the appearance of insider trading or whatever the absurd excuse was with Gates... then look at what's left? Well not very much and hardly anything attractive. No wonder we are where we are.

Probably no one. His tone was pretty much what I expected going heavily short into the weekend. Furtures should be down nicely given the markets knee jerk reliance on short term narratives of late. But on a larger scale, I was disappointed. Most investors, earn our future dollar because we recognize past mistakes and adapt. Buffett to me, seemed like a bewildered old man. I know its heresy to most, but whatever. He has broken his own rules over the past decade... only to end up costing shareholders because of such lack of discipline. AAPL worked, but IBM was bad, and missing the FANG stuff is a huge opportunity cost as well. He's admitted as much but then when the time came to buy into these business he decided to stand pat with Wells Fargo and Coke...yea, so much for reputations and decency! The tune from value investors for a while has been reliance on old cliches about how "this time isn't different". The truth is that no, this time isn't different. Because it started changing a long time ago. I think its reasonable to say Berkshire is impaired. They own businesses that got taken to the mat and the referee is currently counting and at 5 or 6...Insurance may very well be a bright spot. But banks, airplanes, and all the old economy stuff is on the ropes. The best selling Coke products during the pandemic are the Dasani water...yea, if you haven't got Covid yet, go drink some liquified sugar so you develop diabetes, and die when you get the virus! I admire the man greatly. But I also think its time to call a spade a spade. He has failed to get with the times and his investments since the GFC have been largely dismal. I have tried speculating on what is the reason, but at the end of the day it doesnt matter. You dont need to be a buyer of Amazon to see e-commerce booming, nor do you need to buy Tesla to see old auto is done. But you cant sit there and acknowledge these trends and admit your mistakes while continuing to invest in airlines, traditional auto, and bricks and mortar business. Nor can you be the worlds largest owner of banks while previously ackowledging the very real possibility of continuing ZIRP. Are we predicting deflation? Because theres a way to make that bet. Same for inflation. But with Buffett, he's continually, year after year, made the excuse for doing nothing. And thats not a reality I think most have admitted is costly. I often hear people say "follow what he does, not what he says". Well, I also hear people say "the markets are where they were in 2019". Well, Buffett and BRK are were they have been for a while, much further back than 2019... nothing has changed. There is just a convenient story to tell in 2020.

GM fits the gap too.

I dont think you can blame Buffett but I also think in hind site there may be some ego preservation in order. If activity stopped on March 10 and on March 21 or whenever he capitulated on airlines... Not that airlines are investment worthy, but broadly speaking when one, according to the timeline, should have been backing up the truck, Warren already had packed up his belongings and was speeding away....that has to be embarrassing as a professional investor, regardless of how seasoned or successful you are. Add doubly to the problem, the businesses he and most of us know and love well were completely decimated by this and still look shoddy, meanwhile the ones he doesnt know or understand well hold up tremendously and even rebound right back to highs. For these reasons I think there is good likelihood he gives a materially negative market outlook that may in the short term move markets a little bit. At least this is how I read the tealeaves and positioned myself going into the weekend.

"Private investor" is a joke anyone who's been on a company earnings call will get. Its been especially annoying lately with the virtual AGM's. Operator "what company are you with?" .... A lot of folks doing this just tell people they are freelance consultants. That often is enough to satisfy surface level small chat. Its also open ended enough to give yourself generalized talking points should someone keep hammering away. Eventually if you want, you can take this to a response that will stump and or make the other personal feel stupid enough not to ask anymore questions.

"Private Investor"

While its disappointing, as someone who invests with a focus on great assets and great managers, I'm probably best served pushing aside the disappointment and realizing that Buffett will be Buffett and if thats why I bought Berkshire, then I shouldnt really be complaining(although many times I do anyway)...

Puts on IWM, VNQ added to some shorts as well. F, YETI, OPK Bought a little more ESRT

How aggressive are they buying back shares? ESRT and PGRE looked like roughly 4-5% of outstanding shares from March-April, CTO ~$9M(against $190M mc) in shares and convertible notes during the same period. FIZZ really just holds a floor at $40 and below so likely not a lot, but they have an immaculate balance sheet and sales have been crazy for them during this period of time.

ESRT, CTO, FIZZ, PGRE... all of them minus FIZZ doing so somewhat aggressively.

The market has provided ample opportunity for those who missed this in March to cash out with the S&P now where it was in October 2019. There should be no valid excuse for these people if they lose their shirts. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-turmoil-free-trades-draw-newbies-into-stock-market-11588158001 “I feel like everything that I buy, I watch pretty closely and if it’s something that’s not doing well, I’ll generally try to put [that money] into something that is doing well instead,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-29/firemen-and-romance-writers-faces-of-a-fierce-rebound-in-stocks “I’m a complete noob when it comes to stocks,” the mother of high school senior twin boys said while sheltering at home. “It’s not thousands and thousands of dollars that I invested, but it’s a start. We’ll see what happens. I hate to say it, but it’s like gambling, isn’t it?” More accounts were opened and dollars invested at E*Trade in the first quarter than in any prior full-year period, according to a company statement. The brokerage added 329,000 retail accounts and over $18 billion in net retail assets. Haha who would have thought that having everyone stay at home and enjoying free trades supports the stock market. Seems to me that we need everyone to stop working via a forced lockdown to get the SP500 to new heights. Apparently, the economy isn’t needed any more. What if some version of it is actually true? That is, stock market is sort of decoupled from main street as most of the stock ownership is primarily in the hands of top 20% in the income distribution. And these are the people least affected by the current events. The most affected areas are retail, restaurants, certain low wage factory jobs, and other low income service jobs requiring people to people interactions relative to other professions. And this will be true irrespective of lockdown or no lockdown because in each scenario, people are going to avoid interactions hence disproportionately affecting the same group of workers. Its very possible its true on some levels. The price of a Picasso doesnt crater because theres an economic slowdown, neither really do sports teams and plenty of other assets. The stock market reached 2007 peak when? Wasn't it like 2012 or 2013? While many folks didn't get back to life from pre GFC til years later; some never did. My personal hunch is that we're probably setting the stage for the last leg of the bubble blow up. Indeed, forcing people to sit home, the dates actually coinciding with the massive rally(IE since they've stayed home theres been little to do but trade stocks and everyone is making boatloads of money), just wets the appetite no different than a newbie winning their first hand of blackjack. That said its ignorant to just immediately write off other possibilities as well.

I feel like you and I live exactly the same life except I'm at Eastern Market and my park is Kingman Island/Anacostia bike trail/with an occasional Arlington loop sprinkled in. Having visited DC and done lots of tours of multi-family rentals, I have to say that I am incredibly jealous of what a $3,500 budget gets you amenity wise in DC vs NYC. Of course, I live and work from a pre-war apartment for $1,800 in Queens. The value guy in me can't pony up $6,000 for a NYC apartment. $3.5k a month 55 miles down the road... https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/41-Panorama-Dr-Warwick-NY-10990/31866455_zpid/? less than 500 coronavirus cases as well. Afterall you live in a perpetual quarantine out here.

The only homebuilders I would look at owning in this environment are NVR and GRBK.

Was just kidding around. I wouldn't do either of those things....anymore. I'm a married guy with 2.5 kids, no longer in college, for better or for worse.

Hoping to win one of those All-In-Challenge Auctions https://www.fanatics.com/all-in-challenge/x-12589906+z-9713580-3838082054 Some pretty awesome once in a lifetime stuff. Unfortunately, I couldn't find "Blow Coke Off A Stripper's Ass With Hunter Biden" or "Tag Team a Porn Star With POTUS"... as such, I'll probably just have to settle for normal stuff when things re-open. Probably dining out with the family would be first thing to do. And then do it a bunch more.

It baffles me why some stores are putting saran wrap over the keypads at self checkout. You still have to touch the same surface as everyone else unless it gets changed after every customer and we all know it doesnt...

To be fair, the jobs you guys are referring to...I dont think, if we drew a line down the middle and threw people into categories, that the folks who end up at those jobs EVER have to worry about not making rent or missing a minimum payment on the credit card. Of course there is the occasional feel good story, but its so rare that when it does happen they end up making a movie about you with Will Smith as the lead(and that wasn't even a real banking job). I'd be curious how many people on the GS IB team come from HNW families. For the folks that do have to worry about stuff like this, I dont think theyre concerned about those opportunities. Often in those dire times, I'd imagine its in their interest not to worry about managing the credit score and just focus on keeping a healthy financial position, which are not necessarily one in the same.

Because 1) credit scores can be repaired 2) they really only matter in ranges, IE for 90% of shit a 490 and a 570 are the same, so is a 740 and a 800, managing a credit score is really only something neurotic rich people fixate on. 3) no one cares, and no application for anything to my knowledge, asks you "what was the lowest your credit score has ever been" or "3 years ago, what was your FICO" I know a few people whom had abysmal credit scores, starting turning things around, paid a consultant to repair their scores, got current and stayed current for a few months, and went from mid 500s to high 600s/low 700s. They are easy to manipulate.

Reinvesting them in NYC RE companies

There are plenty of critical life situations, such as job applications, mortgage/rental application, etc, where they very clearly ask you things like "have you ever been charged with a felony, have you ever declared bankruptcy"... worrying about a credit score, I agree, is stupid. Worrying about running into other problems is wise though. For instance, I won't touch a renter who has filed bankruptcy. I will on a case by case basis overlook a shitty credit score.

Yea....SAM is basically a value short. I am typically against these, however cash is trash and I want to remain invested in ideas I think are compelling on the long side. So I'm looking for a lot of "if this, then that" ideas. If this is bad economically, then that happens. SAM is a good shot at downside protection, if things go south. Either via sales declines or multiple contraction.