Gregmal

https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2021/09/deploying-national-guard-fill-school-bus-driver-shortage/185357/ Poor people willing to work are gonna get paid soon. Wages have to go up. I did a brief errand run yesterday and lazily tabulated that out of the 3-4 dozen stores I passed, probably 70-80% had help wanted signs up.

CLPR March 5s. Edit: filled. thanks

small add to ALCO

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/america-is-short-more-than-5-million-homes-study-says.html Single-family home construction is running at the slowest pace since 1995. A bit of a ways away from "we're almost at the 2M figure that will blowup the housing market and subsequently the economy"...

Wasn't DD one not long ago?

Depending upon how its set up, I would consider allowing non members to view the entry page to Investment Ideas. Rather than making that part of the forum members only. The reason being is that someone being able to see the ideas being discussed may be more of an incentive to plunk down $50 or whatever. That was one of the reasons I joined. Saw discussion on a name I followed. So allow entry to investments but limit entry to the specific threads.

Thanks John. Yea kinda a house warming. Every year I have family and friends come up for Taco and Margarita Festival at the county fairgrounds. Last year was cancelled so this year had much anticipation. My brother recently got a new dog and my wife is a bit of a worry wort. We have 3 dogs including a Tibetan Mastiff so she was worried about the reaction to all the company. We recently closed on a beautiful new property so to solve her worries I was like "we have a second home...." and thus ended up breaking in the new place with some food, fun and booze. Tonight we're back at the other house. Drinking again. Excuse the Miller Light, I ran out of my drink of choice...Natty Light. I was inspired by @longlake95 so grabbed a bottle of Hendricks LOL

Yea Bombay Sapphire or Hendricks are great. Bourbon is my choice for a straight drink...gin alone is gross. But the best drink of all time is 1000% a gin and tonic.

Haha one of the best arbitrages Im aware of is the Bombay Sapphire. My parents can get the 1.75L at Publix in Tampa for $29.99 whereas in NJ the 750ml is $34.99 and the 1.75L is $44.99. I always have them bring a case when they visit.

Something for everyone lol. I dont discriminate. Breaking in property number 6 with some friends.

Thats kinds of what Im reading at the moment. Things economy wise right now are pretty good. With a lot of cash/people on the sidelines. When their comfort level and quality of life starts declining(or god forbid they get ambitious), I think the terms in which they come back will be quite favorable. Where does this bleed into? Rentals and housing probably. Strip clubs. Probably a bunch of others LOL

haha I think the main thing here, is to let the politics influence where they will, but ultimately figure out what this means and how to make money from it. What Im leaning to is that its going to be incredibly good for the consumer and especially the lower-middle end. RICK probably benefits a ton!

Haha yea throw in ALCO and you're pretty much there. Whats amazing to me is the similarities which support the market dislocation aspect. In general, as an investor I have trouble trusting others to create value. So sure, Buffett has earned it, but generally, I just prefer investing in the discount to NAV stuff because not only does something have to go wrong for you to get bruised, but you also need no growth in addition to the negligence or value destruction. Whats crazy to me is if you look at APTS, CLPR, AIV...you have so many different things cruising in your favor. You have the SAFEST(make a joke about Flatbush Gardens, go ahead) sub-asset class one can buy as far as real estate goes...MF rental. But then you also have best in class assets in many cases or highly desirable luxury facilities in booming markets. You also have these stress tested; you just saw covid and how the worst case scenario looks, but to boot, you're buying a discount to a NAV that is predicated in many cases, still, on those covid infested NAVs when unbelievably, you have gotten rip roaring rental growth everywhere with only parts of it reflected due to the rolls. So to me its seems like(and has been now since November, a total gift to be able to buy these things still close to the covid lows(APTS for instance is a $5B+ asset with ease and the equity implies only a mid single digit % valuation improvement; CLPR like maybe 10%, and AIV who knows but in that case thats the point) AND trading significantly off of current mark to market, let alone where they should go as rents keep soaring and rates stay low. But who knows, maybe these will be the end of me....will be fun either way.

So that issue comes down to...are there just not enough workers, or are lazy people being leeches. I am not talking about the types of folks who put in more work trying to avoid actually working than they would if they just got a damn job...those will always be there. What the million dollar question is IMO is...drumroll, are there simply not enough workers out there? Because the narrative is that its freeloaders but I am not really sure thats the case. I agree there seems to be a lot of anecdotal evidence that something changed with a reasonably sized group of people. We may have what I think is a very healthy situation for people, but not exactly companies. More workers than jobs is brutal, but the opposite may actually promote some economic benefits in certain areas.

So Im trying to make sense of this and curious if anyone has a take on what is going on here... The past couple months there have been experiments with some states cutting the additional unemployment benefits and a lot of press about how it didnt improve the jobs figures at all. I dont know if this is accurate but thats what Ive heard. Recently, I saw a couple articles talking about further federal benefits ending. I also saw a bunch lambasting Ted Cruz for tweeting something to the extent of "get a job" to people complaining about benefits ending. However every single place I go, whether a Main Street town center or big highway, there's "Now Hiring!" signs up, literally EVERYWHERE. So what is going on? Where are the people? I recall a decade ago how folks considered it an honor to have a job, period. Didnt matter where it was and even bank teller or restaurant work was highly sought. This was with minimum wage at what? $9??? Now even the clerks are making $14-$17 an hour and I see plenty of entry level stuff offering $20-25. Are there not enough people to work? Or is Ted right because theres an inherent craziness to refusing employment but whining about losing freebies? Or is it a bunch of things? Literally every business owner I know needs labor. I dont know anyone out of work. But thats all anecdotal. Whats up here?

Schools are locally funded generally. Same with much of the roads. But generally, I would be all for it if those were the things the money went to. Unfortunately, we've been hearing the "paying their fair share" argument in perpetuity and 1) its never just schools, roads, weapons and bridges. They always have to chuck in the "other" shit. And 2) why are the majority of those things currently in such terrible shape if thats where the funds go/need to go? Its not like the US doesnt generate any tax revenue...Its a game and a scheme designed to keep people oppressed and reliant on big brother.

Its the same thing as Ive raised a million times before about property taxes and their absurdity. You and I both own an acre of land. Why in the fuck does we have different property taxes? What business is it of any politician what I put on my land if its of no threat to anyone else's freedom? If Im using more sewer/water resources, sure, charge me. But what business do you have robbing me because I have a 3,000 sq ft home on it vs a 1200 sq ft one? Or when I need a new water heater? Why am I paying them $70 for a permit? Its all nonsense however they've pitted it so people are either complacent or view it as an "us vs them" issue, which is the case with estate taxes. Keep the number high enough for the lemmings not to care and you can bully everyone else.

I just try to stick to things that come easy to me. And if they arent easy, things that I understand or can handicap. There's like 8,000 public companies out there that dont have anything to do with China so I dont really see why the average person thinks this is their best playground.

I dont think "fighting" anything is worth it. You want to be a contrarian, but in the sense of seeing a turn or pivot before others. You could have made fortunes buying REITs, especially retail related stuff during covid. It was ugly. You were "fighting" the tape. But you also knew the world would go back to normal, that they had vaccines coming; they in fact told everyone when the vaccines would likely be here, and even indications in more democratic cities/states that people wanted to return to normal regardless. Was just a matter of time. With China, where's your catalyst for the situation turning? Shorting the market bc of the Fed or "valuations"..why??? Same with malls. What causes the turn. Same with office? Who flips a switch, en masse, to get everyone back? Cable? Who wants it anymore? This is not to say China is a secular decliner, but the worthwhile question is...what causes the fundamental change, when, and how long does it take the narrative to follow? There in lies the money.

Started a little VICI AH.

started some VWTR and added a few to JOE

Find a Jewish housewife type prime broker. Otherwise, next to impossible.

The "consequence" is that the elitists who employ expensive lawyers and accountants get around the taxes(or greatly reduce them) and the normal folks who just try to play by what they can understand get screwed.