Gregmal

It will become a vortex of pain and ultimately a death spiral if rates rise. Air travel won’t even matter. Look at all the money they made this last decade and look why they have to show for it and look at the equity value vs the debt. 1) rates rise a lot, is it easier or harder to refi all that debt? How about more expensive? Market is forward looking and will crush the equity unless debt is rapidly paid down. 2) why would rates rise? Well, for starters, inflation. What’s some of the measures for inflation? rising energy prices and labor issues. Boom and boom. AAL also doesn’t hedge. I’d also point out that to meet increased demand for air travel they’ll have to pay more and hire way more. Which will have to be offset by higher prices which could stem demand. 3) you could also arguably make the case that these are currently priced optimistically given the recovery trade theme and subsequent expectations of massive future demand. So if rates rise, it’s because basically everything that wrecks AAL is happening.

Haha appreciate the kind words. I personally don’t consider myself to be all that good of an investor. Too much ADD. Why wait for 10% annualized returns when every day or week or month there’s stuff doing those types of numbers? Really I just try to make money. As fast and as risk adjustedly reasonable as possible. I am exceptionally good at two things; recognizing patterns and processing a lot of shit real quick and getting out of it what I need to make a quick decision. Specifically with qualitative shit like narratives and risks that either seem to be present/warranted but aren’t or vice versa. But there are significantly better investors than I out there, for sure. I try not to wear a badge one way or the other. Be what you gotta be to make the money.

How about the principal getting lap dances from students at a high school pep rally the other day? Just in general these fuckin sickos need to stop trying to expose kids to sexual stuff. Besides, if kids are anything like they were when I was a kid, they’ll do a good enough job finding plenty of it on their own.

LOL yea I don’t even know what Mongolian growth is or why it exists but all these finance guys do this shit where they get to play Buffett for a day job. But back to his performance, who knows? Someone told me he never even had a real job and was bankrolled by family money straight out of school….again though, what business is it of mine? I don’t care if he worked to earn his money or not… I just like guys who can think outside the box and source ideas or spark new ideas. It’s up to me to see the shots and hit them. So on that note, I have nothing but the highest levels of respect for the dude. And right now, his reads on the market have been lights out.

No idea. I don’t follow it that closely and it doesn’t really matter to me either way. I read a lot and if it makes sense I give it merit. His current numbers just show that he s on point with his reads given the current market dynamics. Generally though my point was that people have this bizarre habit of deciding that “he got one wrong” is reason to reject or cast a fictitious conclusion and when you think about it there is no sense to it. No better example of this than Bill Ackman. Dude is straight money as an investor. There’s few better at picking downright great businesses and outperforming with a simple buy and hold strategy. And yet, there are no shortage of mouth pieces that love to run in and go “yea but what about VRX” or “he s blown up before” or some crap like that. And it’s like ok great, we know he s not perfect. Whew! Otherwise everyone who invests gets stuff right and wrong. It’s just lame to have such a low standard for dismissing things when the reality is “he gets a lot right in a big way and occasionally gets one wrong as well”….I can’t see how this is a reason to write someone with a great mind off. There s literally nobody in the history of investing who hasn’t gotten one wrong. But a lot of times we like to apply “getting one wrong” as a disqualifying trait for the best investors out there…..strange

OTM AAL leap puts edit: its more of a 12-24 month hedge idea. But it should all unfold together. Mountain of debt coming due in 2025. Biggest inputs are labor and oil...both will be the reasons rates would rise. CEO basically levered up buying back stock in 40/50s a few years ago. Bad business to begin with. Lotta ways to win.

Got a few Jan 2022 42.5s for ~$1.2. If I get put the shares it's "good enough". The biz is inflation resistant and basically a royalty/call option on prosperity/wage increases for the poor people.

Grabbed a little more JOE, shorted some MO puts, and laughed a little at AMZN and AAPL.

Honorable mention...RICK

I always like checking out the Starbucks indicator. 1) Does the town/area HAVE a Starbucks. 2) How busy is the store. 3) What kind of cars are typically on line at the drive through? Those will tell you pretty much everything you need to know.

Tangentially my father grew up in various parts of NJ and PA. Settled most of his childhood in Ridgewood/Ho Ho Kus area. Similar to what Eric described, in this area, in the 60/70s...its was fields and open land. Yes, Ridgewood and especially Ho Ho Kus, and even myself, I recall Mahwah NJ being barren in the 90s. Todays its packed and its all expensive suburban homes and a lot of big mansions. Saddle River too, especially so. So having left the area and moved to Tampa a decade ago, my parents are asking me to assist them in finding ANYTHING on a lake with some land with an open mind to pretty much ANYTHING in NJ/NY/PA...and guess what Ive noticed? Basically ANYTHING with a good parcel, waterfront, is now $500k+...even remote stuff in upstate NY or Nowheresville, PA. Crazy.

Trimmed some MSFT, bought some APTS April 2022 $10 calls, added some VIX November $25 calls.

You guys got the gist. Position sizing is everything. No one should be risking more than 5% of their capital on a single idea until they really know what theyre doing. Whereas while you are figuring things out, you can risk 1-2% positions all day long and really its not going to move the needle much either way. If what you are doing is really, really, off base, well...a half sensible investor will get tired of burning their hands on there stove and fix the bad behavior or the flaw in their process. Thats valuable and part of learning. The only way you go broke with sub 5% positions is if you continuously do really dumb shit. Which is way different than just having a few trades go against you. One is part of the game, and the other is the antithesis of it.

But yo, like, he liked tanker stocks that went down and I THINK.....HIS STRATEGY...is risky. These are lifetime returns for some folks LOL.

Some of the best advice I have taken personally, and also heard so many people swear by, is to really reach on your first home. If you're of average or better intellect with corresponding job prospects...go to that point where you're internally like "ehhhh I could do it but eh...its gonna be close/tight"....If you're under 40, and especially 30...pull the trigger. 5-10 years from now you'll either need a bigger house anyway, or if you bought the right one, be totally in the drivers seat, and with a huge equity cushion even if prices go nowhere. And in either event, if you're half successful on your career path, what was a lot of money to you then, at 25 or 35, most definitely shouldn't be a lot of money to you 10 years later in your life/career.

These are great sort of trades. High leverage ways to cover your ass if the music stops. In a certain sense its funny because folks think this is a bad idea because if the music doesnt stop you will certainly lose money. Even if it kinda stops, you can lose money. The most likely outcome is in fact a write-off. And this is true. But how many of those same folks have home insurance? I bet you none of them look at their annual renewal notice and say to themselves "terrible trade John. Just lost 100%. If such as such happens that policy premium is another write off! Doh' and now they want 20% more money for the same contract as last year!?!"...

Thanks my man. No problem. Love helping folks out and when Im not annoying them with politics hopefully allowing them to see investing is not that hard you just have to rejigger the framework sometimes and that you dont need a financial professional in order to take care of yourself. Tangentially, folks too often become infatuated with specific companies, names, tickers, etc. The only thing that matters is the money you stand to make or lose. So for the above, the most likely scenario is you get $50 against a ~$500 stock for a couple years tie up. I'd actually probably move up a year to the 2023 $350s and just take the $35. Then you can either hit it again as those get closer or roll down again for another year. SAM is kinda a quirky stock...its really good value if you get put under $400 and pretty poor value over $500(just my opinion), and either way you know there's buyout upside solely because the big boys are shitty allocators and will pay up for good brands and shelf space, both of which SAM has.

https://nypost.com/2021/10/25/our-brave-new-progressive-world-from-a-to-woke/

The "shit" end of the tech stuff and covid beneficiaries has definitely caught a bit of a bid. It formed a bottom and now seems perky. Interestingly enough, exactly in line with the confidence termites thesis, the quality big tech for the most part is just gyrating around a range. I closed many of my shit tech shorts but have also been pairing down long exposure. The long value, short tech trade put on in Q4/Q1 worked wonderfully, but I am not sure how much juice is left in it. Rather just take shots here and there on highly asymmetric inflation trades and catalyst driven discount to NAV stuff. So thats what I'm doing.

Eh I mean I post pretty transparently, regularly, everyone here knows it....even just mid last week posted $50k purchase of CLPR calls that are already up 40% in a few days and for me its just like .....eh, cool. Stocks and their derivatives move around. Its just how things work. Any given day you could probably find a few things doing well. And then Mr Housing Historian after his hiatus comes rushing back in to post and boast about how no one understands 300 year housing patterns or MEME stocks and he's a self proclaimed bossman cuz his TSLA and MRNA are up today......LOLOL

Huh? LOL You said people buy REITS because they dont get to see price fluctuations and dont want to see mark to market! My goodness! What are you 16? Go away and wait a few more days for your stocks to fluctuate and then come back and boast about having stocks that went up, just like everyone else who's long in a bull market...If you're capable of providing anything of value, go start a thread as @thepupil suggested. Or answer @KJP's question as he alluded to(you dodged it), or, IDK post your performance? Or IDK, go hang on Stocktwits or something. Doesnt bother me either way. Good for some comedy though.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3756853-twitter-ceo-jack-dorsey-wanrs-of-hyperinflation

This is always an interesting mental exercise when I see small businesses go up for sale. $240k for a taco and hot dog shop….why? What do they do? No land? What’s the incremental cost for this or that….why is the brand worth anything(most times it’s not)…end of the day generally my rule of thumb, profitable or not, is what are the assets worth. Add a discount and then adequate return to compensate for my time. ALCO is a good case study. Nothing exciting about the biz buts it’s healthy and profitable. Huge underlying asset. Place that into perspective of both your time, your money, and your current opportunity set. As you would expect, the attractiveness varies greatly. Conversely I do a semi reasonable number of private deals and your data is limited and the businesses largely unprofitable. My ideal info sets have to do with what’s the growth look like for the entire space. Where does this company stand in terms of having a moat or first mover advantage, and who’s bankrolling it. Just did a deal for shares in a company Emulate. Trading 10x revs and by 2025 the entire TAM will be roughly where the CURRENT EV is. But it’s a tech leader in a rapidly growing and disruptive space with some big financial backers. All I can lose is my investment. I have plenty of multiples of upside even if I’m not entirely right. So I’ll roll the dice.

The end game is coming into focus now. Today’s remarks make that clear.