Gregmal

Covid distortion aside, theres an obvious different between buying a home and a car. And outside of the obvious one with regard to the long term desirability of the asset, I'd say the buying/selling process is much simpler for a car. I dont think cracking the home buying process will be easy, but you have the ingredients already. Again 39/40 doing a transaction go to Zillow at some point in the process. Thats all you need in terms of moat to kind of tinker with different stuff until you get it right. Imagine a world were you spot the home you want, apply through Zillow for financing, setup via the site a walkthrough tour either virtually on the spot or in version next day...where doors can be unlocked through the cloud, and then after exiting the property can submit a bid or buy it now? You wouldnt even need to charge a commission if you can automate all the bullshit title stuff. Almost all of it is nonsense that is hugely marked up. I'm doing a refi right now and these things are like 2% of the home price by themselves. Maybe charge a 2% total commission or 1% to each side. Then because you originated the mortgage yourself you get that $ too? Its a massive opportunity. I dont see anyone else having anything close to the footprint to do it. Also, on I-buying, look into it. Theyre not buying anything, theyre buying what the data is telling them is the best markets. And they offer like 10-20% below market in many case. Big difference from buying a used car 20% above MSRP.

The simplified bull thesis on Z is basically theyre going to turn the long, arduous home buying/selling process into something that resembles buying/selling on eBay. One stop shop. THEY will become the real Home Depot. Where you can transact like you trade stocks. They will eat the middle stuff which if largely automated or outsourced can be hugely lucrative. Anyone who's done a deal can tell you all the absolute bullshit fees and costs the title companies take down and then of course the agent commissions. So on one end they'll have a huge inventory of homes purchased with 2% debt, notes, stock issuance. You can rent or buy from inventory through the click of a button. And all the money thats made through the transactions, which is tons! goes to the bottom line because they can offer it cheaper than anyone else, while providing the buyer and seller unmatched convenience.

Initially that was probably were I stood on the ibuying. But if you can leverage your size and issue at will with notes, shares, or cheap debt, thats fairly big. So whats the risk if you're raising lets say $500M and then buying 1,000 SFH with solid fundamental data supporting it at a 10-20% discount to market? This is effectively what theyre doing once you remove all the sales speak around "adjustments". And further, if you're buying these in cash or fixed debt, and the markets not "on fire", is the risk really that big? How do they lose a lot? How many times has the overall housing market gone down 25%+? Maybe a handful of times over like the last 50 years? Its not like theyre owning these at 5% down. Cash or largely funded by long term fixed rate debt. Carry cost for a home is maybe 5% a year tops assuming its vacant? So whats the ballpark on what losing a lot" actually means? Well, not really a lot. Frankly, this model, as well as similar ones from guys like Blackrock, make it far easier to dominate the market over time, especially if there's pullbacks. Of course you cant do this if you're small, but Z is the biggest fish and once you really start seeing the access to capital relative to what buying slugs of well located homes costs, it gets wild. Think about what would happen to home prices if BRK or AMZN decided to issue 5-10% of its market cap in shares to go on a SFH buying spree? You can literally buy entire towns in some of the best located neighborhoods in NY/NJ for a few billion.

Meanwhile theres folks going on and on about a US housing bubble LOL

Big move AH for BB.....all the way back to.....$10!

Yea commission are generally reported on a gross basis which is misleading because they are typically paid out on a % basis with the smallest end going to the firm. So a listing that does $30k gross best case has a dual representation, 60-70% can be paid out to the agents meaning for the reported figure only $10k or so is true revenue. Had a ton of people bring me small boutique financial/stock brokerage firms and be like "1x sales"...but if you're paying branch offices 90% of revenue its really more like 10x. The good thing though about this model is the overhead is typically lower as the higher the agent payout the more of the cost burden they typically bear.

There's some winner take all dynamic as well. Few industries are more ripe for disruption than RE brokerage. Z owns the internet(which the internet is a pretty important theme over the past couple decades). 1 in 40 is the number you need to know there. Thats how many people transact in RE without ever using Z in the process. Or in other words, its virtually impossible to avoid them. From there its just about the ecosystem, engagement, and automation of the process. Ibuying is just a call option, but could be significant as well. Having done dozens of transactions over the years, its a pain in the ass. Z is the only real player who can seize this opportunity IMO. COMP has the funding to do some damage as well. But I view them more as just a tiger running wild in the old ecosystem, which if you're willing to spend, is pretty easy to conquer. Poach agents or buyout smaller shops, undercut listings. Utilize some automation and advertising. Softbank knows a thing of two about throwing money at ideas....COMP is a smaller position but worth keeping an eye on well below its IPO price.

COMP and FRG

Exactly, losers dont like to be accountable. Its not your fault, its because you're white and white people are quickly becoming the minority and the left wants to scrub you out and take your guns and jobs and make you a third world citizen. Thats the mantra on the right. On the left its basically the same; its not your fault, America has been out to screw colored people because the country is run by evil supremacists. This type of net catches like 80% of the population. Only 20% see that white folks aint endangered and with the proper skillset can easily get what they want and that colored folks are pandered to to such an outrageous degree that its almost impossible to fail if you make any effort. The later requires work though but if willing is a huge opportunity. I remember in History classes thinking how crazy it was that back in the day the American Dream required saving for freaking months to by a ticket to make a weeks long journey on a fucking disgusting ship and then go through a shit hole like Ellis Island and then after that start from complete scratch without even having a place to stay, and then go find work in a non industrialized setting. Today you literally just have to get off your ass. Mental set is the key though.

The medias job is to shape the public into subservient and moldable followers. This applies to both left wing and right wing outlets. Its far easier dealing with 2 predictable groups than a sea of individuals.

IDK but personally I think you can learn something from anyone. Whether its knowledgeable things they do well, mistakes they make, a thought process or pattern, or simply other behavioral stuff. But we live in a world were the media has molded us to immediately identify with folks as either friend or enemy. If any enemy, its become a trained behavior to just find some surface issue, and dismiss absolutely everything about the person. Oh well. If everyone wasnt so dumb it would be a lot harder to excel in life. So be grateful.

I would also add that it seems a lot of people have their eyes in the wrong place with the "covid disruption" thesis. Yes, that occurred, but that merely set the table for a lot of whats to come. Just as significant IMO, if not more so, is the government spending and stated objective now of both parties to effectively pay for votes. We've more or less backdoored our way into a UBI with the Child Tax Credit stuff. Look at all stuff in the 3.4T package....Covid IMO was merely an excuse to get certain programs and ideas into play. A lot of them I think are here to stay.

Wage inflation is inevitable and ESG is certainly not transitory; its gaining steam. Definitely not welcome news for large scale, low wage labor reliant operations such as the QSR stuff, Walmart, Amazon, etc. Housing as well is the easiest area for the government to goose with regulation/subsidies and what better way to keep on buying votes than pumping affordable housing programs? So some of it is one off disruptions in certain areas but theres also some very important areas where those things have nothing to do with it. We talked about it in the job market thread...where do these jobs now come from?

Great quick read. As always, Kuppy nails it. It feels like the engine has been revving on the inflation trade all year, and at some point I think it really takes off. https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2021/09/20/when-the-levee-breaks/

Man BOMN is your bitch huh? What'd you do 20 to 45 and now rebuy the bottom at 24 and pluck $10 in a few months? Too bad theres no options.

Shorted some CLF 9/24 $19 puts for 40c

Well thank God we got Biden in there. I'm sure he'll fix this. LOL Voting has consequences. Jokes aside, I dont see how you can start going down a very slippery slope of retroactive taxes which is effectively what this is. It would be one thing to grandfather existing stuff in, but people have literally planned their whole lives with these type of things and now its like "oh you were too good give it up". Same thing with the 1031 exchanges. The groveling for new dollars to fund this ridiculous new budget is disgusting.

Not even into buildings, but just in general...what happens when there's failure? Just drop down on top of people in the streets? Even if theyre 2x as reliable as a real car, thats still too many incidents. Been wondering how they solve this since watching Minority Report like 20 years ago.

Had to interrupt my golf outing to do some trades! Took about a 7% position in GLD. Looks like a good hedge position with multiple ways to win over the next 2 months between China and the US government shutdown issues. Added a few VWTR, FRPH, JOE, VICI. Shorted some CLF Jan $17 puts, waiting for mid week to hit up some weeklies. Closed some BRG swing position from last week.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/09/16/2298781/0/en/CTO-Realty-Growth-Announces-Recent-Disposition-Activity.html 5.1 for a Wells campus with like 3 years left on the lease. Solid prints on the retail outparcels as well although IMO the Chickfila should've gotten a stronger bid. Obviously retail is dead. Long live the Sun Belt.

Looks like the turd may be in play. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/bluerock-residential-is-said-to-explore-strategic-options-sale Undoubtedly several very positive read throughs for APTS as well. Folks, we've found the money trees! theres a whole forest of them.

another slug of AIV March 5s

I think its a great idea for people to keep an eye on stuff like this. Finding a new and disruptive theme in the early innings, with a great long term story is one of the easiest ways to make a ridiculous amount of money in a low risk fashion. As for the BAC list....I think some of those things have already peaked in terms of investment opportunity. Others haven't gotten enough traction.

You are focusing on the hand waving. The bottom line is that any dollar THEY can get their hands on they will try to. Especially if you dont have the numbers at your back. The more the numbers skew, IE income inequality, the more abusive they can be to the haves. The more haves or have offspring they turn into have nots, the more reliance on the system, the more reliance on the system, the better off THEY are.

Read everything you can get your hands on. Start with some classic books. A few of my favorites are the Market Wizards series, Reminisces of a Stock Operator, and Bull! A History of Boom and Bust. From there you can start figuring out what suites you as far as a style goes. I've also advised folks(like pure newbies) half jokingly to figure out what a degree in investing would cost...Take 25% of that amount and put it in a trading account. And just get to work. The best educational material is ultimately gained on the field.