Gregmal

Totally. I remember making a rather irresponsible earnings wager on Apple in maybe 2012 or so and being told "thats silly, its $400B company...how much bigger can it get?"...these things are silly talking points.

But also, imagine not even buying the rock…but sitting around obsessing over the rock….whining about how only 7 particles of the rock are the only reason anyone wants the rock, wallowing about how rocks will go out of style, and then spending even more time wondering if you should short rocks, and getting mega excited every 5% pullback thinking this is the beginning of the end of rocks? Meanwhile somewhere else there’s trees paying you $12 instead of $3.56, and ponds with fish that produce $15? Pretty stupid to be focused on the rocks, eh?

It’s amazing all over the absolute obsession every outlet and market participant has with talking about “the magnificent 7”…like all consuming obsession. Recently I’ve even seen articles about “Mag 7 underperformed the market since mid January”…and it’s just like wtf is wrong with people? Takes Bruce Berkowitzs “ignore the crowds” slogan to another level…like any guesses how many of the people consumed with Mag 7 analysis(you know, as if they all have some proprietary edge over everyone else and their mother who’s staring at the same 7 stocks….” Are actually outperforming or even sniffing acceptable levels of portfolio performance? A good many Id gander probably don’t even have proper market exposure…. This is where we eventually mature and see how investing is easy if you just do your own thing and stop looking at and for the same exact shit everyone else looks at and for…

Yea, goes after a low beta snoozeCo and then starts doing his "look at me" marketing antics. Thats the formula.

Can we create a news network that is not dishonest and actually labels its guests and fodder characters appropriately? Rather than “the guy who called XYZ crash”…wouldn’t “the guy who’s made 643 predictions with a 4% hit rate” be more appropriate? How about? “the guy who’s lost 30% over the past decade while underperforming the index by 300%”…instead of “famed short seller” can we get a more honest “guy who cries wolf a lot and if enough people are dumb enough to fall for it, buys the stuff he says he’s shorting”?

At this point the guys best and highest use would be running charity auctions for the right to be punched in the face by current and former clients whom he's cheated with his antics.

I still occasionally dream of someone hacking the CPI and releasing a 15 print or something crazy just so we can see these mindless monkey boys who “brace” for these sorts releases have seizures.

As an American I’ve been disgusted by all the warmongering that’s been brought about by the current regime…but it gets to another level when the SOTU headlines are that we’re “determined to avoid sending troops to Ukraine”….huh???? Who TF was ever even talking about sending US troops? It’s bad enough we re wasting billions so a dementia ridden puppet can play stratego….now we need to kill our own over some foreign pissing match? Fuck these people.

More egg on the faces of Jerryband Friends with NYCB. This is pure awesome…force the asset sale, give the ok to the buyer(nycb), then basically pull the rug on them with the “regulatory” angle, effectively causing the typical dominos to fall(media/social media/short sellers screaming hoping to cause a run on the bank), then….blame it on bad management lol. Fuck these people, such idiots all around.

Sold the last of my SPHR.

When fast food gets that expensive, a rationale person owes it to themselves to go get their food at a better joint....I can get a 4 pack of the finest burgers for $10 at the store. Or I can go to the highest of caliber local steakhouses and get a burger meal for $16-25. Fast food is really just a lazy choice. Further, pretty sure Wendys still has $5-6 combo deals. People make choices and then blame inflation. Its easier that way. There is NO reason, longer term, McDonald's should be able to charge $15 for a Big Mac meal if people behaved rationally.

Lower income folks don’t see wage growth because they have no bargaining power being at the bottom of the food chain. That’s life. There’s a reason good marine mechanics in cold states all head south once they’re able to. Theres a reason all good cooks go to big cities when they can. If you bag groceries or mop floors, tough luck.

So Bitcoin is obviously proven to be a bad inflation hedge….

Can we get real though? Of all the bears who thought they were witty and funny and clever shorting this the last year, how many had earning inflecting like this? Answer? None. If I had to take a directional wager I would have been with them in terms of skepticism, but unlike those dimwits I’ve learned that when stuff seems funky, I can just walk away without doing anything.

REITS are awful when it comes to incorporation/shareholder rights being in Maryland(go figure) and when things get hostile management can fuck everyone badly. Litt is skeezy but his play is great marketing. Monish would be proud. Basically take an immaterial position in a low vol or super cheap liquid company and then go on a publicity tour with mega saber rattling while ultimately settling for minor governance changes which allow him to say "see! look at how good I am"....

Total waste of time if youre doing it for economic reasons. Great marketing though if you use the Jon Litt strategy.

The stock should be trading at ~$1300 USD with that figure increasing about $150 per share per year. Until it’s there, who cares about the short term minutiae?

That won’t happen. It’s clear even now during his presidency that biden makes zero actual decisions. He isn’t even allowed to do interviews. He s a figurehead.

Lol I remember being told we were all idiots for not having massive Tesla and Moderna positions in November 2021…then having our friend totally disappear and return a couple years later accusing me of being long SF real estate….and claiming he was retired and in bonds. Only to then switch bonds to cash when he was told bonds did poorly. And now he’s long Uber and Chinese tech stocks….

I love when they mouth off and short first and then ask questions later…ultimately ending up begging for better disclosure because they didn’t do the appropriate work in the first place and got it wrong.

Yes thats the narrative theyre trying to push to keep everyone on the edge of their chair the next month or so. Still ZERO bearing on what will happen in March, or June.

This is why it’s a hard bridge to cross when people try to defend short sellers by and large. Of course there’s exceptions, but they are rare. There’s just such an obvious and inherent undertone of dishonesty driving the whole charade, facts be damned. Zero interest in the truth, just getting the desired outcome.

This really highlights why this guy and so many short sellers are total scumbags. He clearly has no interest in factual discovery or in seeing “the truth”. He’s hellbent on bolstering “his narrative” and furthering his own agenda; publicity and all. He ll seek witty soundbites and edgy snippets, and if involved in asking questions, do so looking for “gotchas” and stuff that attempts to make the company look bad. No real good faith effort in any aspect, purely adversarial, dispute clearly not having a great understanding of what he’s talking about.

I think it’s these asshat macro people. Every data point is “the start” of what they’ve been wrongly predicting for (insert time period). Except they’ll tell you they haven’t been wrong, it’s just seemed that way because of (abc or xyz excuse).

I just don’t think going back to anywhere close to zero is needed or the real plan. People lie and say ZIRP happened for a decade but it was only post COVID. Really we are modestly higher on everything now vs pre COVID so pre covids 2.5 is new normals 3.5 or whatever. I also think being at 5 is stupid and an unnecessary overreaction/misread/look how tough I am from Fed. Equilibrium imo is like 3.5% 10 year and 5-6% mortgages so that’s ultimately where I think we end up in the next couple years. So maybe 75 bps this year and 75-100 next. Certain functions require these levels and there’s not much resistance to getting back them. I don’t see this changing with meaningless monthly fluctuations. Shelter is still the only reason we’re anywhere near 3% cpi