Viking

The bond market is nuts. As it becomes clear inflation is NOT transitory how do bond yields stay low (across the curve)? Who puts their money in a vehicle that is guaranteed to lose them significant money (purchasing power)? i get holding bonds if inflation is 1 or even 2%. But inflation running consistently at +4%? My guess is if we get a big sell off in financial markets it will be driven by a big spike in bond yields. Much higher bond yields would be a game changer. Where is the ‘safety of principal’ or ‘adequate return’ parts (‘investment’ as defined by Graham).

The buyout price (A$8.45) is where the stock was trading pre-pandemic. The buyers are obviously looking through covid and very poor near term results in coming up with their value for the asset. Purchase price is A$23.6 billion. For reference, in 2018 and 2019 avg EBITDA was about A$1.3 billion. 1H 2021 EBITDA = A$210 million https://assets.ctfassets.net/v228i5y5k0x4/79DMHWTVxNhRH4Ke80DdK6/c7a2a1dc55198167b88f2faa57deb795/Sydney_Airport_-_2021_Half_Year_Results_Presentation.pdf Hopefully we see Fairfax India/Anchorage being opportunistic with IPO in India in 2022 (given how bubbly the IPO environment is currently). Regardless, as travel, especially international travel, opens up in 2022 we should see much improved results from BIAL moving forward.

The management team at Fairfax India is hitting the ball out of the park in terms of driving quality growth in BV. The fact they have stepped up with significant share buybacks in 2021 is another very good move; take advantage of the very low share price. I hope they continue to buy back shares in volume given the discount to BV and the future prospects of the business. Buybacks in volume at these prices greatly benefits both Fairfax India and Fairfax shareholders. Quality growth in BV combined with large reduction in shares outstanding (purchased at a substantial discount to BV) looks good to me

Fairfax India had another good quarter. Here are a few things i found interesting: 1.) BV was up nicely to $20.37/share At September 30, 2021 common shareholders' equity was $2,894.9 million, or book value per share of $20.37, compared to $2,446.9 million, or book value per share of $16.37, at December 31, 2020, an increase of 24.4% (an increase of 29.5% prior to accounting for the performance fee recorded during the first nine months of 2021). At September 30, 2021 there were 112,083,127 subordinate voting shares and 30,000,000 multiple voting shares outstanding. 2.) Big sale in ‘other’ bucket booking gain of $58.9 million In the third quarter and first nine months of 2021 the company sold investments in Other Public Indian Investments for total net proceeds of $117,602 and $122,013 and as a result the company recorded realized gains of $58,942 and $58,944. 3.) Share purchases continue in Q4 Subsequent to September 30, 2021, under the terms of the automatic share purchase plan, 757,869 subordinate voting shares were purchased for cancellation on behalf of the company for a net cost of $10,000 ($13.20/share) and the automatic share purchase plan liability of $10,000 recognized at September 30, 2021 was reversed. 4.) Company is pretty flush with cash Fairfax India remains in strong financial health, with undeployed cash and marketable securities of approximately $310 million. 5.) Details of Chemplast Sanmar IPO. Proceeds $519 million used to pay down debt. Ownership in Chemplast is 55% (publicly traded) On August 24, 2021 Chemplast Sanmar Limited ("Chemplast"), a subsidiary within Sanmar completed an IPO, issuing 24,029,574 common shares to the public for proceeds of 13.0 billion Indian rupees (approximately $175 million at exchange rates on that date). The IPO also included a secondary offering, whereby Sanmar sold 47,134,935 common shares of Chemplast to the public for proceeds of 25.5 billion Indian rupees (approximately $344 million at exchange rates on that date). As a result of the IPO, Sanmar's ownership interest in Chemplast was diluted from 100.0% to 55.0%. The proceeds from the IPO were used to repay Chemplast's debt and Sanmar's holding company debt. Chemplast is engaged in specialty PVC manufacturing, suspension PVC manufacturing and the production of specialty chemicals for pharmaceutical, agro-chemical and fine chemical sectors, in India. Chemplast is listed on both the BSE and NSE of India. Following the listing of shares of Chemplast the share price increased by 13.2% from the IPO price of 541.00 Indian rupees per share to 612.45 Indian rupees per share at September 30, 2021. 6.) Details of Anchorage sale to OMERS In 2019 the company formed Anchorage as a wholly-owned subsidiary of FIH Mauritius, intended to provide investment related services to support the company in investing in companies, businesses and opportunities in the airport and infrastructure sectors in India as well as its platform for bidding on airport privatization projects in India. On September 16, 2021 the company transferred 43.6% of its 54.0% equity interest in BIAL such that it is held through Anchorage and subsequently sold 11.5% (on a fully-diluted basis) of its interest in Anchorage to OMERS for gross proceeds of 9.5 billion Indian rupees ($129,221), implying an equity valuation for 100% of BIAL of approximately 189.7 billion Indian rupees (approximately $2.6 billion at exchange rates on that date). Upon closing of the transaction, the company's effective ownership interest in BIAL decreased to approximately 49.0% on a fully-diluted basis, while its actual ownership remained unchanged. As a result of the transaction, the company recorded non-controlling interests of $129,076 and a benefit to retained earnings of $145. The company shall use commercially reasonable efforts to list Anchorage by way of an IPO in India, subject to regulatory approvals and market conditions on or before September 2025. If the valuation of Anchorage upon closing of the IPO is below 91.6 billion Indian rupees (approximately $1.2 billion at period end exchange rates), then OMERS' ownership in Anchorage will increase to a maximum of 15.0% and the company's effective ownership interest in BIAL will decrease to maximum of 47.5% on a fully-diluted basis. Management has assessed the possibility of the company listing Anchorage during unfavourable market conditions to be remote and therefore no value has been attributed to this feature.

Fairfax has paid a US$10 dividend for many years. Consistently, i think, since it was started. Even in the years when results were not good (please correct me if i am wrong). Cutting a dividend is about the worst thing a management team can do. The management team loses credibility. And the stock gets punished. 2021 is shaping up to be a record year for earnings for Fairfax. And management is trying to re-built credibility. And keep the shareholders it currently has. I think a $10 dividend is coming in January And it makes complete sense.

Here are my notes from the Q3 conference call. It was short; not many analysts following the company? - expect gross premiums to be up 23% for the year, with strong growth expected to continuing into 2022. - 9 month investment returns $3.3 billion or 7% on total portfolio - 9 month BV is up about 20%; does not include $19/share of consolidated equity gains or $37 gain coming from Digit - adding it all together BV is over $600. - Ki: they only have a 20% economic interest but consolidate 100% - actuarial review at insurance subs will be completed in Q4: not concerned (expect releases?) - purchased $1.1 billion in Indian Gov bonds (4 year duration?) Not sure when. - when asked about buybacks gave plain vanilla answer: focussed on LT performance; wants to be financially sound first; support growth in subs in hard market; then buy back shares - cat exposure at Fairfax has been flat. So as premiums increase the cat business is becoming a smaller part of the total company. - 50% of Odyssey is reinsurance; mega cats hit them harder - 20% of Brit is reinsurance. They received no benefit from the recently purchased cover in Q3; however, it kicks in Q4 so they do not anticipate Brit needing to add to reserves for cat hit. - the Digit revaluation may get pushed to Q4; sounded likely. But it will happen. Only issue is timing. - will the dividend be increased to $20? Not likely (i think stock buybacks were mentioned)

Given we are about 5 weeks into Q4 here is an update of Fairfax's equity holdings (mid day Nov 5). The holdings that I track are up about $550 million = $21/share (pretax) of which $14 is mark to market. - Eurobank +$228 - Blackberry +$116 - Commercial Industrial Bank +$92 - FFH TRS +60 - Stelco +$41 - Kennedy Wilson +$40 - Thomas Cook +$35 - Dexterra +$31 - Recipe +$27 - IIFL Finance +$27 - the gains are very broad based with lots of positions up quite a bit - the biggest decliner? Atlas -$175 (incl. warrants) If equity markets finish the year strong Fairfax is positioned to deliver very strong investment gains in Q4. Which would deliver an outstanding 2021 Notes: 1.) I am slowly adjusting Fairfax ownership % for the various holdings to include Riverstone. Atlas needs to be updated. 2.) I added more detail to Gulf Insurance Group in the Other Insurance Equity Accounted group. I think I got my ownership and share count correct. Please let me know if you see any errors. If my math is right this is a US$400 million holding. Now the shares are VERY thinly traded given Fairfax and Kipco own something like 95% of the business. Fairfax Equity Holdings Nov 5 2021.xlsx

@maxthetrade do you own Fairfax primarily because of its underwriting prowess? YTD consolidated CR = 97.3. My guess is YE CR will be mid 96. Not as good as others but ok. And we should see improvement in 2022 (thank you hard market). Personally, i do not own Fairfax primarily because of their underwriting. I am ok with an annual CR somewhere in the 96 range (or better). Quarterly volatility does not really bother me.

Blackberry (shares and debs) and TRS were down $320 million in Q3. We knew this Sept 30. The fact the entire ‘bucket’ was down $442 should not be a surprise.

Ok. With Q3 results out here are some quick take answers: Bottom line, after delivering three outstanding quarters in a row, Fairfax has delivered a solid quarter in Q3. - net earnings of $462.4 million ($16.44/share) - Book value was $561.88 (Sept 30) compared to $478.33 (December 31, 2020) 1.) size of catastrophe losses? CR came in at 101.1; underwriting loss of -$47.5. I was expecting high ‘90’s. Mild disappointment. 2.) top line insurance growth - still double digits? YES! Big win. “net premiums written increased by 25.8% to $4,697.6 million from $3,735.2 million” - Rate vs exposure? TBA 3.) how much longer will hard market continue for? TBA (looks promising given growth of 25.8% we saw in net written premiums) 4.) annual update on reserving (i think this happens in Q3)? Good. “net favourable prior year reserve development of $69.6 million” 5.) share of profit of associates: growing? YES! “share of profit of associates of $227.3 million principally reflects share of profit of $82.0 million from Resolute, $43.3 million from Eurobank and $20.3 million from Atlas Corp.” 6.) Brit/CEO update? TBA 7.) Riverstone / sale of 14% of Brit close: impact on financials (lower debt etc)? YES! Big win. ”The company's total debt to total capital ratio, excluding non-insurance companies, decreased to 25.7% at September 30, 2021 from 29.7% at December 31, 2020, primarily reflecting lower total debt, due principally to lower borrowings at the insurance and reinsurance companies and the company having paid off its credit facility” 8.) Eurolife - increase in ownership from 50 to 80% - impact on financials? ”Upon consolidating Eurolife the company recorded a net gain of $130.5 million on remeasurement of the company's previous 50.0% joint venture interest in Eurolife to its fair value of $450.0 million, which is approximately book value.” 9.) Digit: is $46 gain in BV pushed out to Q4? Part was booked in Q3: ”Net gains on investments of $374.6 million primarily reflected net gains of $397.0 million on Digit compulsorily convertible preference shares.” 10.) GIG purchase of AXA closed in Sept 7; any impact on Fairfax’s financials? Not sure… 11.) how do equity holdings perform inQ3? Any sales? Any new purchases? Overall performance was better than i expected (ex Digit) given the known fall in value of their mark to market equities, driven by Blackberry. - Surprise! “realized gain on the sale of the Toys "R" Us Canada operations of $85.7 million” 12.) update on capital allocation moving forward? Do insurance subs have enough $ to grow on their own? Done repaying debt (i noticed another $85 million due in 2024 was repaid in Oct)? Are they ready to buy back stock in volume? TBA Homework: understand better what happened at Odyssey. Same with Brit.

@modiva Fairfax has its warts. 1.) increase in debt the past few years 2.) drop in interest and dividend income 3.) runoff - especially now that the good part of runoff has been sold 4.) Brit 5.) management credibility These are just a few that quickly come to mind. It will be interesting to see where debt levels sit after Q3 results with proceeds from sales of Riverstone ($700) and Brit ($375). I see they are also redeeming another $85 million of debt (announced in October). Bottom line, debt reduction looks to be a priority

@ICUMD i would sell and flip the proceeds into FFH I wonder if Fairfax India does not start to utilize its NCIB in Q4. Because the stock is not very liquid they are pretty restricted in the number of shares they can purchase (12,264/day). But soaking up 25% of the average daily trading volume would likely help get a more consistent bid under the shares. Chug, chug, chug… The Dutch auction allowed them to remove a larger number of shares more quickly (than via NCIB) but it did nothing to help the actual stock price as once the auction was over the stock promptly fell back to where it was trading pre-auction. ———————————————— The notice provides that Fairfax India’s board of directors has approved the purchase on the TSX, during the period commencing September 30, 2021 and ending September 29, 2022, of up to 3,500,000 Subordinate Voting Shares representing approximately 5.1% of Fairfax India’s public float of 68,470,912 Subordinate Voting Shares as at September 16, 2021. As at September 16, 2021, Fairfax India had outstanding 112,276,777 Subordinate Voting Shares. Under the bid, Fairfax India may purchase up to 12,264 Subordinate Voting Shares on the TSX (or other alternative Canadian trading systems) during any trading day, which represents 25% of the average daily trading volume on the TSX for the prior six months (being 49,056 Subordinate Voting Shares), all as calculated in accordance with the rules of the TSX. This limitation does not apply to purchases made pursuant to block purchase exemptions.

Fairfax’s bank in Egypt, Commercial International Bank, has been on fire the past 5 weeks. Not sure what is up. Fairfax owns 6.5% of CIB = 128 million shares (from the CIB web site) - The shares have increased from Egyptian Pound 42.66 (Sept 30) to 54 (Nov 3) - Fairfax’s position has increased from US$347 (Sept 30) to $439 (Nov 3) = + $92 million This puts CIB as Fairfax’s fifth largest individual stock holding after Atlas, Eurobank, Blackberry and Quess. It is larger than Stelco and Resolute. - https://ir.cibeg.com

Fairfax India has had an outstanding 2021 with lots of good things happening in Q3. And the stock? Closed June 30 at $13.50 and closed today (Nov 3) at $13.05. I hope they do another big buyback My math says BV should come in at north of $21/share (was $19.26/share June 30). BV was $16.37 on Dec 31. BV is up 28% in 9 months. And the increase has been driven primarily by the publicly traded stocks which are up +50% over the past 9 months. Impressive. What happened in Q3: 1.) completion of stock buyback in Aug = 4.7% of shares outstanding 2.) 11.5% of Anchorage sold for $129 million 3.) Chemplast Sanmar IPO completed - stock up +20% post IPO 4.) new purchase Maxop - $30 million for 51% - to support growth plans - Maxop is a precision aluminum die casting and machining solution provider for aluminum die casting components used by the automotive and industrial sectors, with customers in India, Asia, North America and Europe. Any updates on: 1.) Seven Islands IPO - still on? 2.) Anchorage IPO and growth plans? 3.) NSE IPO - coming in 2022? 4.) another big buyback coming? Sanmar’s businesses are in a really interesting position today…

@hobbit, thanks for posting. Chemplast is printing crazy money like Stelco right now. The PVC market is red hot and it looks like prices will stay elevated for longer (like steel prices in the US). i must admit i have had a hard time understanding the Chemplast Sanmar IPO from Sanmar. I am looking forward to reading the Fairfax India Q3 report to better understand how all the pieces look post IPO.

Agreed; nice to see the improvement at Recipe. I hope the focus on improving profitability and lowering total debt continues (and not just at Recipe). - nice that they show 2019 numbers - there will be some lasting benefits that come out of the covid experience: 1.) significant investments in technology 2.) much higher e-commerce system sales 3.) heightened urgency to deal with issues (poorly performing brands and locations) - this will result in a leaner more profitable business moving forward - debt reduction was also significant - net debt dropped by $50 million or more than 10% and is now lower than 2019. - number of restaurants = 1,284 down meaningfully from 1,375 in 2019. - covid issues remain (staffing, higher food costs, managing through Delta etc) so improvement from here will likely be slow and steady - Pinnacle Award - F&H’s Company of the Year - https://www.foodserviceandhospitality.com/kostuch-media-ltd-announces-2021-pinnacle-award-winners/

@glider3834 i am not sure what Fairfax’s ownership stake in Blue Ant is. My guess is it is not big (given it was split with Torstar). Regardless, it looks to me like Blue Ant has done a very good job over the years of expanding its business and Fairfax’s position likely has been increasing nicely in value.

Glider, i find a lot of value in taking a big picture look at different parts of Fairfax. And then comparing where they are today to where they were 2 or 3 years ago. My analysis informs my thesis that many things are slowly improving at Fairfax. Problems are being fixed. Companies are being put in a position to succeed. This is not to say all will succeed (Farmers Edge is on my watch list but it is still early days there). Others, like Dexterra, are simply hitting the ball out of the park (its market cap is up to almost US$500 million and they are looking to grow!). Chemplast Sanmar earnings look like Stelco earnings right now (PVC pricing is through the roof). And as this collection of businesses do well (in aggregate) we will see the benefits flow through to Fairfax (in different ways) in the coming years. These businesses over time will become a source of cash instead of a big use of cash (which has been the case in the past). That change is a big deal. In terms of what is left to ‘monetize’ EXCO (oil and gas) sure looks interesting. Bauer (owned by Peak) is the #1 hockey brand in Canada and should be quite valuable. Blue Ant Media has been growing like a weed (and they hit a home run with Enthusiast Gaming. So my guess is there is significant value there that is not appreciated and Fairfax will figure out how to surface it (they are motivated).

Fairfax has been ’monetizing’ a number of their privately held non-insurance holdings over the past couple of years. Fairfax’s definition of monetization is pretty broad and includes not just out-right sale (exiting entire holding) but also spinning the holding into the public markets (where they usually retain a controlling interest). Over the past 2 years they have ‘monetized’ more than $1 billion worth of assets. And they still have private investments worth more than $1 billion (my WAG) so they likely are not done in their effort to ‘surface value’. Am I missing any holdings? Attached below is a Word document with more information: some notes from each transaction and more information for each holding (this post is long enough already) . Why are they moving in the 'monetization' direction so aggressively? Are they recognizing Hamblin Watsa is not a turn-around shop? Is it so the value of the individual holding gets reflected more accurately in BV? Is it to position the holding so it can be more successful? The amount of cash going to Fairfax has been pretty minimal so this does not look like a focus. What do board members think? One big benefit for shareholders of the ‘monetization’ process is disclosure. Given the limited disclosure it is very difficult for investors to value the private holdings especially a couple of years after purchase. By reducing the number and size of private holdings Fairfax is making it easier for investors to understand, follow and attach a value to their many remaining equity holdings. I have included APR and Fairfax Africa in the ‘sale’ bucket because these assets are no longer managed directly by Fairfax. BIG WIN. Fairfax has been very opportunistic on the IPO front. The funds raised by these companies will be used to fund future growth/pay down debt. BIG WIN. Bottom line? Fairfax has strengthened their remaining collection of equity holdings with these moves (taken as a whole). And to have achieved this much during Covid is impressive. Future moves? Seven Islands IPO still on? Anchorage IPO in 2022? Digit IPO 2022? Sales: outright sale/significant change in management (Fairfax no longer involved) 1.) APR - sold to Atlas - March 2020 - proceeds of $200 million (18 million Atlas shares at $11.10 per share) 2.) Fairfax Africa merger with Helios - July 2020 - owns 32% of new publicly traded entity 3.) Davos Brands - sold to Diagio - Sept 2020 - proceeds $59 million + consideration of $36 million (depending on brands performance) - cost (2016) was $50 4.) Easton baseball (part of Peak Ach) - sold to Rawlings - Dec 2020 - cash proceeds $65 plus 28% ownership position in Rawlings (#1 manufacturer in baseball) - gain on sale of $15 million 5.) Rouge Media - sold in Q1 2021 - proceeds of $10 million 6.) Toys ‘R Us - sold retail business - Aug 2021 - no financial terms provided - sold to Putnam Investments. Still own the real estate. IPO’s/Mergers/Reverse Takeover: resulting in significant funds being raised to support growth prospects of company 7.) Dexterra (Carillion) reverse takeover of Horizon North - May 2020 - own 49% of publicly traded entity - carried on balance sheet at US$3.62/share 8.) Farmers Edge IPO - March 2021 - own 59.9% of publicly traded entity - raised $114 million 9.) Boat Rocker IPO - March 2021 - own 45% of publicly traded entity - raised $136.5 million 10.) Chemplast Sanmar IPO (Fairfax India) - Aug 2021 - subsidiary of Sanmar (Fairfax India has 42.9% equity interest in Sanmar). 11.) Insurance: Pethealth - Jan 1, 2021 - became a wholly owned subsidiary of Crum & Forster - I included this move because I did not realize this had been done Remaining collection of Private Investments 1.) Peak Achievement - Bauer Hockey - 43% ownership (owned with Sagard Holdings) 2.) AGT - taken private Feb 2019 - 80% ownership if warrants are exercised 3.) EXCO - emerged from bankruptcy protection June 2019 - 44% ownership 4.) Mosaic - taken private June 2021 5.) Ant Media 6.) Sporting Life and Golf Town - 61% ownership of each 7.) Rawlings - 28% ownership - Dec 2020 - Seidler Equity Partners are controlling shareholders 8.) Chorus Aviation - 13% (implied ownership stake) 9.) Small positions - Praktiker, Kitchen Stuff Plus and William Ashley Fairfax Private Investments Nov 2 2021.docx

@modiva on the Q3 conference call on Friday i am hoping Fairfax provides an update on stock buybacks (their priorities with future free cash flow). In recent years, the priority has been to support the subs grow in the hard market. Good decision. More recently paying down debt ($500 million outstanding on the revolver) has been another priority. Also a good decision. Fairfax might now be ready to start to get more aggressive with buybacks. We KNOW they think their stock price is crazy cheap. After all, they are value investors.

@KPO what i am trying to understand is why has earnings and BV growth been was so bad at Fairfax for much of the past decade. Can we identify with precision what the key drivers of this poor performance were? I think we can. It is crystal clear that the shorting strategy was the primary driver of the poor performance over the past decade. It was a monster $4.5 billion hit to earnings over a decade. The CPI strategy was another $650 million (or so) hit. So the two together total more than $5 billion or more than $500 million per year. This is identifiable. It is real $. And a real cost. Not theoretical. We also know that as of Dec 31, 2020 all short positions have been closed. We also know the majority of the cost of the CPI is baked in. So we know these costs will not continue moving forward (perhaps we get a small hit from the CPI as it runs off over the next 2 years). A massive cost item has been eliminated. It sounds to me like you think nothing has changed at Fairfax. So please tell me where is the new $500 million hit going to come from in 2021? And then again in 2022? And again in 2023? And every year for the next decade … I don’t see anything Fairfax is invested in today that is going to drive a new $500 million hit each and every year for the next decade. Therefore, all things being equal, this leads me to believe that earnings and growth in BV will be higher, and likely much higher, starting in 2021 (and future years) when compared to past years. ——————— sports analogy: Fairfax is an NFL football team. Every game it has played for the past 10 years it has spotted the other team a 21 to 0 lead at the start of the game. Needless to say, their win/loss record has been terrible for a decade. And since Jan 1 of 2021 all games now start 0-0. I don’t think it is crazy to project their win/loss record will improve when compared to past results in the years moving forward

Bingo. Yes, the shorts resulted in significant losses for a decade. But those losses had knock on effects… Fairfax needed cash and therefore had to sell assets to cover the losses. The assets sold were the ones that had gone up in value (gains had to be booked to offset the losses). They HAD to do what Peter Lynch warned about: pulling out the flowers and watering the weeds. The cost to Fairfax of the short positions was greater than just the simple financial losses booked on the short positions. Imaging what now happens to the garden when the flowers are allowed to fully bloom. Investors do not grasp the size of the impact the short losses had on Fairfax’s business for the past decade. And now that they are gone investors now do not grasp Fairfax’s earning power moving forward. ———- PS: why did Fairfax need to sell Riverstone? Both sales were done because they needed cash. Take a look at the increase in total debt the past 5 years. (The Riverstone sales were also likely done because Fairfax did not have the cash to fund Riverstone’s future growth.)

@Xerxes your comment reflects my number 1 watch-out with Fairfax: trust management. For me today it is not a big enough issue to not invest in the stock. I like the current direction of the company. And the stock is crazy cheap. However, i will be watching closely what Fairfax does (and what it says, but to a lesser extent). If i see them making new big bets that i do not like or understand i will re-evaluate what to do with my shares. It will take Fairfax time to earn back investors trust (and deservedly so). after all, actions have consequences.

Where the analysis gets even more interesting is when you add a couple more big loss items that will not keep repeating (at the same level) for the next decade: 1.) CPI linked derivatives: this investment has cost Fairfax an additional $650 million or so over the past decade. The position will likely not be renewed so it will not continue to cost Fairfax an average of $65 million per year for the next decade. 2.) cost to fix/exit all the poorly performing equity investments the past 5 or so years. This bucket deserves its own post as it is hard to grasp and i don’t have exact numbers. My guess is the drag was likely $100-$150 million per year (on average). Year after year Fairfax took very large financial hits to fix many of the equity holdings. RFP. EXCO bankruptcy. Fairfax Africa final merger with Helios. APR sale to Atlas. AGT take private? Farmers Edge before IPO? These are just a few that come to mind quickly. There are more. Now the good news is my read is most of the problem children have been fixed. And the portfolio of equity holdings is better quality Oct 2021 than at any time in the past 10 years. So i expect future costs to fix equity holdings problems to be much lower than past years. So when you add the cost to short, CPI bet and fixing the equity holdings the annual total cost was likely about $600 million (pre tax) each and every year (on average). And much of this cost goes away moving forward. That is a massive win for current shareholders.

Fairfax is very good at certain things. They are also very bad at some things. They have a terrible 10 year track record at ‘equity hedge’ and ‘short exposure’. So i am happy they will not be doing this any more. And I hope they focus on/do more of the things they are very good at