Dalal.Holdings

I don't do DCFs

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-commission-plans-major-financial-markets-shakeup-in-bid-to-boost-investment/ https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/news/making-europes-savings-work-better-investment-opportunities-european-citizens-strengthen-european-2025-09-30_en https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/savings-and-investment-union/ After a long period of smothering its own small companies, EU is now desperate to get more people to invest in EU businesses. Is Europe becoming uninvestable? Well, all those conservative European citizens who put their savings in low yield accounts now need to be pushed to invest like American citizens do per the EU... Europe will become much more investable when more European citizens put their savings into European investments ! And the EU needs to do much more by getting out of the way of regulating many of these firms to death. GDPR, DSA, DMA EUDR, AI Act (The Alphabet Soup) all need to have a hatchet taken to them...

I get it, it's a software compounder rollup of a large number of software firms... The question is whether moats are being eroded without people realizing it. Look at Fiserv recently or Paypal. There's often too much anchoring and inertia bias in these things I think it will take a deep analysis to figure it out, not a lot of the superficial stuff I've been seeing

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-france-europe-fighter-jet-defense-aviation/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/germany-sticks-year-end-deadline-fcas-fighter-decision-2025-11-07/ France wants ownership of the Franco-German plane program. No one point out which of the two country's finances are a total mess... Bickering among nations is just common in Europe. Especially France and Germany. And now Germany considering bringing in UK (non-EU country, lol)... France is not a great partner to be with on any long term project like this where there are bound to be cost overruns, delays, labor issues, etc. Germany should just go it alone with smaller partners (Spain, UK/Sweden). They have the fiscal space to do it and can probably create a great end product

The fact that so many value bros on here and Fintwit are talking about piling into CSU.TO (at nothing that resembles "value" multiples) seems like a red flag...

Humor and mocking onerous regulations that strangle tech in Europe can be a great way to bring light to something that many Europeans such as yourself wish would not be discussed in a thread about investing in Europe ! Same with Europe's widening productivity gap with the U.S. that has been attributed to gap in tech by Draghi, etc. So what if everyone can read it ? Even prominent American VCs and entrepreneurs like Marc Andreesen & David Sacks have been engaging in the activity of pointing out how European regulators have no clue what they are doing with technology. Slowly EU officials have been waking up to reality, but I think it's way too slow ! They fired Thierry, but keep the regulations in place ! I will do all I can to help them move faster ! Me embarrassing myself ? Just take a look at your incomprehensible posts on here and how quickly you become defensive and angry, often without understanding my posts to being with. Others here have noticed as well. I try not to engage you because it's clear you are probably mostly just confused.

Unlike those other times, Burry is actually digging into accounting issues (which is how he nailed 2008). I think that the accounting at these firms does not lie. The capital intensity building at these firms is not a good sign IMO that they continue to be very high return on capital type businesses into the future.

The question is how much recurring capex is needed to buy new chips when they hit the market for these firms to simply maintain their competitive position (maintenance capex)

No worries, I am sure these firms will account for depreciation in a reasonable way, just like when they tend to "adjust" away stock based comp...

It was almost 2 years ago (feels like it was yesterday) that the EU achieved this great feat: And now, as 2025 draws to a close, Europe of course is considered an AI leader....oh, wait... https://www.ft.com/content/af6c6dbe-ce63-47cc-8923-8bce4007f6e1 Oh, wait, it's only a 1 year grace period. Better luck competing next time Of course, when you make a big mistake as a bureaucrat, the worst thing you can do for your career is to admit it.

This post is not satire even though it looks like satire. Obtaining the EU's alphabet soup of certifications is a key milestone of "bragging rights" for some European companies... Meanwhile...

https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/07/trump-maduro-venezuela-democracy-intervention/ https://www.latintimes.com/maduro-reportedly-open-leaving-venezuela-exchange-amnesty-comfortable-exile-report-591357 If the U.S. achieves a smooth regime change in Venezuela (the rightful ruler/Nobel Peace Price winner would take over), what does that mean for oil supply in the medium term? My guess is probably more downward pressure on oil prices... Chevron would probably be back in a heartbeat... https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/chevron-terminates-contracts-will-keep-staff-venezuela-sources-say-2025-05-28/ In fact, I think this prospect is probably a key reason Venezuela is drawing so much attention from Trump...

Regulations help the Brussels bureaucrats feel powerful, feel like they've actually accomplished something with all their fancy status & "education"

This satirical European tech founder account is too good to pass up: GDPR and AI Act compliance + CO2 certification are the KPIs for any European tech startup !

Incredible video and pretty much summarizes what I’ve been asserting since I mocked Thierry Breton and AI Act on here over a year ago. And now you have Draghi saying EU multi decade productivity gap with U.S. is due to lagging in technology. Of course the Brussels crew now recognizes this (very late), fires Thierry, and now wants more people to invest in their tech sector with public-private vehicle. As they quoted Reagan: ”If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.” Europeans are at the final of the 3 stages with tech as they stated…

Things are already being done...mostly by Chinese firms like BYD, CATL, etc. Even Tesla headed by "evil billionaire" Elon Musk has done more than most when it comes to climate change. I don't think the answer to climate change is to create a layer of regulations and rules. And I think that's what most people who speak out against climate change have a problem with. There are other technologies humans can develop to cool the planet if warming gets really bad too: https://www.space.com/sunshade-earth-orbit-climate-change The problem is that you need GDP growth and technological progress to solve the problems of the future. When you de-prioritize economic growth, you make everyone poorer and destroy humanity's technical potential.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/bill-gates-climate-change-bjorn-lomborg-e3fe6d24 https://www.gatesnotes.com/home/home-page-topic/reader/three-tough-truths-about-climate Bill Gates has recently changed his tune and come out against climate doomers. The problem is that the climate argument has been taken over by doomers who also endorse economically harmful ideas like "degrowth". This had an especially strong hold on the politics across Europe (including the UK). These people believe that GDP growth = carbon emission growth and so for them, the world needed to "move on" from prioritizing GDP growth: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2022/06/what-is-degrowth-economics-climate-change/ The World Economic Forum -- a place where the aristocrats fly to in their private jets each year -- was a place this was taken seriously. The problem is that when you deemphasize economic growth, everyone ends up poorer and more people suffer. Think about some of the things that have happened in Europe: Germans shutting down nuclear (how does that help the climate?), UK no longer drilling in the North Sea, imposing harsh EV mandates on your traditional ICE industry, imposing an onerous deforestation rule on even SMEs, ESG statements in every report...a lot of this driven by the Green type ideologues. I think a lot of this ideology, especially among young people in Europe, has led in significant part to the productivity issues the continent is facing. Unlike Draghi, I don't think it's all due to Europe lagging in tech. I mean this should be expected--if citizens don't care about GDP growth, then they'll get the results they desire. Anyway, unlike Europe, China got the memo and built a huge battery, EV, and solar industry while Europe did what exactly? If Europe wanted to take the lead on climate change, they should have been involved in creating indigenous champions in EV, battery, and solar, not in going on the "degrowth" and regulate route.

Well every so often we get more insight as to why Warren (and Charlie) mocked ever hiring consultants. But then again, Ajit Jain was ex-McKinsey, so I'll say it's never 100%

I am not your foe, John, but you sure act like I am a foe. I chalk up your behavior to English not being your first language/misreading what I wrote while you keep suggesting I am “up to something” and have hidden “motives” as if I have some malicious intent with my posting here. I’ll admit I can be abrasive at times (duh look at my profile pic), but I do that not just in the Europe thread, but Citi, Liberty/Malone stocks, AI thread, FICO, Cable stocks (though I just bought CMCSA), etc. I think you are just being overly reactive to that mixed in with a language barrier which causes you to read things that aren’t there.

Again, I really have no idea what this guy wants with me. He's upset and claims I brought up NVO "to deflect" when I was clearly responding to @DooDiligence who brought up NVO! He wants to know what I am "up to here" in this thread and my "motives". I already told him I am an American who invests in Europe and think the continent has been on the wrong track for a while in terms of multiple economic metrics (which EU officials have begun acknowledging). What else does he want? My social security number? What motives does he think I have? Does he think I am an ex-KGB/FSB spy here to drum up bad propaganda about Europe? I honestly have no clue.

If I came to the NVO thread and talked more smack, my Buddy John here would go ballistic. I have nothing to add for now.

Going back to your original reply to me. What you posted has nothing to do with what I posted. What I was replying to was people stating that the UK's major problem is that it left the EU. I provided two counter-examples: Switzerland and Norway which are not in the EU and doing pretty well. Norway even has an amazing trade relationship with the EU as its largest energy source (meanwhile UK basically shut itself off from drilling in the North Sea...) The currency topic was only a reply to @TwoCitiesCapital who stated "Well Mississippi could have reasons for withdrawing from the U.S." or some version of that. My point was that the UK, unlike Mississippi, has its own currency and about a thousand years of individual sovereignty, so it's not a good analogy to equate the UK leaving the EU with Mississippi seceding from the U.S... Again, I think you often just misinterpret my posts and get yourself all riled up and it's a waste of my time to try to correct it.

So uhh... let me get this straight. Me posting stuff from FT, DW, Draghi Report, interviews with EU officials, etc is irrelevant to the "Is Europe Becoming Uninvestable?" Thread, but you posting my identity, location, profession is relevant? I'm being evasive? You want to question my motives? I've already repeatedly stated I am an American who invests in European equities. What more do you want to know about me and my motives ? My bank PIN Code? Names of family members ? Religious beliefs ? This forum is a place to debate ideas. I frankly don't care who someone is or where they are from unless it is directly relevant to the post (e.g. @Sweet and his views about life in the UK). Just like the Citi thread, you jump to make accusations. You accused me then of posting hearsay when I quoted from a WSJ article. Yes, @DooDiligence you can post the "Hurt Feelings Report", but I'm not going to be the one to use it even though this guy @John Hjorth wants to discuss my name, my location, and my profession in a thread that is about investing in Europe! He seems to follow me around to air grievances about my posts and threatens to report me. I honestly think a lot of his feelings are due to English clearly not being his primary language and his not fully understanding what I post. I myself have trouble discerning some of his posts, but he clearly has a lot of complaints about me !

This is an investment forum where we choose our own names and can be anonymous should we choose to be so. Your attempt to reveal my name, my profession, and my location is interesting because I think you are using it as an intimidation tactic, clearly. It reeks of doxxing and is highly malicious. If anyone should be reported for abuse of this forum, it's you. I'm also fairly certain it was you that led to my ban earlier this year, but I'm not going to report you despite your malicious tactics. I'm just going to carry on. This thread is full of Canadians and Europeans talking about America and American investments for one simple reason: very few people outside of Europe want to invest in Europe while everyone around the world wants to own America's Mag 7, other stocks today. That means investors who are not American routinely discuss America and its issues outside the Politics thread and you know it. For example, in the Comcast thread just two days ago, the Trump administration and potential acquisition of WBD has come up. No one complains about that because it is relevant to the investment and most Americans don't whine when their President/country gets criticized. We're used to it. I'm one of the few exceptions: I don't own Mag 7. I invest in Europe, Canada, and Japan. I make fun of AI, the Mag 7, and what I view as overvaluation in certain U.S. stocks routinely. I also criticize what I view as misguided policies in Europe while I own European equities. Too bad you can't tolerate it. My posts have mostly been about economic factors as others have noted. I also quote the polls showing rise in right wing, anti-establishment parties to support my argument that all is not well in the UK, France, and Germany. I would advise you to grow a thicker skin and/or use a better English translator so you understand my posts. Otherwise, no point in discussing further.

Buddy, no one on here complains when Europeans and Canadians talk about America in 99% of this forum. Yet when one American talks about Europe you get so upset? Do you say the same thing about Canadian and European money managers when they talk about America? I own a bunch of European stocks and want them to succeed. I think Europe’s leaders need to get out of the way and they have hampered the productivity and potential of the continent. I have been crystal clear on that. I’m sorry it’s so hard for you to understand this. And of course, even EU leaders have acknowledged they have a problem and have made it a goal to cut 25% of red tape. And I believe discussing economic topics like productivity and GDP per capita (along with Draghi’s report, interviews with EU leaders, European sources like FT, DW, etc) is highly relevant to this thread which is about investing in Europe. FYI I also posted about how Trump’s favoritism disgusts me in the Comcast thread. Of course, criticizing America is okay and no one will ever complain about that… Either it’s a language barrier or you just have a problem with any outsider who says anything negative about Europe.