Dalal.Holdings

Quadrupling down on the “pretend it will go away” strategy...and spiking in the very states he is/has held maskless rallies (and Trump/his staff/Pence’s staff have all had it in the past 6 weeks...). Superspreader-in-chief! Are we Great Again or what? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-28/trump-says-midwest-heated-up-with-coronavirus-cases

Explain Sweden. Thanks. Sweden cases going up, economy in deep recession even with no lockdowns (even without lockdowns, consumption goes south if the virus is spreading). Asian countries and NZ seem to be doing well on both the pandemic and economic fronts though. Not much else to say.

Second wave for Europe. Third for America. Who knew shunning doctors/scientists and chanting “the virus will be gone soon” wouldn’t work in the face of a pandemic?

Chris Christie learns about asymmetry: https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-should-have-worn-a-mask-11603315968 A bit late learning & announcing this all the way in October...and after contracting covid, but oh well... Fortunately for him, his downside risk was mitigated thanks to being a well known public figure with access to the best healthcare you can get.

Wow, you sound like you know exactly wut you are doing--as always! Can you also calculate Black Scholes in your head? Maybe you can start LTCM 2. There is zero probability this could go wrong. You're on top of it Jersey Boy--Send Warren the memo and let him know he should margin up Berkshire! Well, everyone should do what works for them. Different ways to go about it. Buffett has his approach, I have mine. If you're good at shooting the basketball you want to take as many shots as possible and when you miss, who cares, just look for the next opportunity to shoot. If you miss enough you get pulled from the game. I'm financially independent in my mid 30s and you're padding the rainy day fund and hoping for a Biden bailout. Good luck. Being scared of everything always going wrong to the worst degree possible is a great investment strategy and surely you should be able to pay off the student loans and retire by 65 or so! Continue mischaracterizing my investment strategy and making sweeping assumptions about my financial status--what ever makes you feel smug and secure in your strategy. Yes, we are aware how cool you were in skool and how much of a success in life you are now, having posted repeatedly about it on an internet forum...

Wow, you sound like you know exactly wut you are doing--as always! Can you also calculate Black Scholes in your head? Maybe you can start LTCM 2. There is zero probability this could go wrong. You're on top of it Jersey Boy--Send Warren the memo and let him know he should margin up Berkshire!

Wow, he predicted the unprecedented Fed intervention and PPP loans and stonks of course! Not all of us possess the gift of Nostradamus who has predicted everything up until this day (or is deluded enough to believe so)! Some of us mere mortals are forced to think probabilistically and hold some cash for a rainy day. The barbell approach has worked out well enough for me so far this year, but wut do I know! Cash is clearly a useless asset...to some. Good luck being all in + margin—with those Nostradamus skillz, surely nothing can go wrong! Never in doubt! Lol...

No worries: "We are rounding the turn (on coronavirus). We are rounding the corner." -Trump 2 days ago Is it Easter yet?

Well at least you admit it. This was not a low stakes issue which is why I questioned your level of confidence. When people become confident in such things, the danger is that precaution is thrown aside. When leaders dismiss precaution and instead exhibit confidence that “the virus will be gone soon” or “a vaccine will be here soon”, the cost of them being wrong—economically and in terms of lives lost—is massive and will be borne by society... The Asian countries and some others like NZ seem to get the precautionary principle. Others not so much. Let's for a moment assume the herd immunity thesis is broken (we don't know that yet). You're not the only one holding it, there are plenty of others who will realize this as cases and hospitalizations go up, and we anticipate they could go up fast. My question is, can one make money from this understanding? If yes, where are the opportunities to make money if a significant third wave hits? Edit: this question is based on the realization that cases and markets have not correlated much in the last 6 months These days, the way to make money is: bad news -> stimulus -> stonks go up (and even good news as long as fed doesn’t tighten) The virus has gotten less deadly as we’ve matured our treatment modalities: proning, remdesivir, antibody cocktails, steroids, avoiding things that don’t work (HCQ,etc) but a third wave would drive a population already conditioned to a deadlier covid to reduce consumption/activity. And having a virus that can kill your relatives and/or spending time in the ICU/hospital with a respiratory virus is not exactly enticing even if you survive. So while stonks may go up, the fear is that the real economy will get hit. As they say, an ounce of prevention is worth....but it’s too late now for that anyway.

Well at least you admit it. This was not a low stakes issue which is why I questioned your level of confidence. When people become confident in such things, the danger is that precaution is thrown aside. When leaders dismiss precaution and instead exhibit confidence that “the virus will be gone soon” or “a vaccine will be here soon”, the cost of them being wrong—economically and in terms of lives lost—is massive and will be borne by society... The Asian countries and some others like NZ seem to get the precautionary principle. Others not so much.

Europe did a good job in the spring leading to a good summer for them and dropped the ball later. Lol Because I praised them for doing a good job early I am now forever tied to Europe? When the facts change, I change my mind—what do you do? Oh, I know—stick to your guns regardless of new information—it’s been widespread in the USA since January...

No worries, we've had "herd immunity" since the end of August...you just have to change the definition of "herd immunity" (it's the new moving of the goalposts, bro!) Meanwhile, NZ shows what it looks like to actually "be tired of winning":

Who needs a thread on “the psychology of misjudgment” when the politics section offers a live demonstration? ;D

Trumpf and Melania positive... 2020 still doing 2020 You literally couldn’t make this up:

A Jim Cramer speech from Feb 2000 that I always keep handy (no, this is not satire, but legit): https://www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/the-winners-of-the-new-world-891820

Lol. Deflect, Deflect, Deflect. I'm just here to enjoy the mental gymnasts at work--surely politicizing masks, downplaying the threat, and holding indoor gatherings in no way affected R0 in the U.S.A.! There are no levers that Trump pulled the wrong way, surely! Good night, and keep dancing for Don!

Hey muscle--no one on here understands this virus better than you--that's for sure! I grant you an honorary doctorate. Where that herd immunity at? Still waiting... :-X We are still waiting for you to explain how effective test-and-traceback is for covid, given the numbers in Europe. Do you remember what you were writing in March? Test, test, test, right? SJ Yes--clearly I am wrong--we should stop testing altogether--that will make things better: no tests, no cases! You completely ignored the observations from a variety of interlocutors that pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission meant that testing would have a very limited impact on aggregate numbers. So, what is happening right now in Germany and the Netherlands? What is going on in Canada and Italy? Lots of tests, but transmission merrily persists for the exact reasons that you were told in March. SJ Cases are up, but so are tests. The positivity rate in those countries is much lower than what it's been in the U.S. It will be much easier to control for them and to top it all off, they are not run by leaders who are downplaying the threat, mocking masks, and holding indoor rallies.

Hey muscle--no one on here understands this virus better than you--that's for sure! I grant you an honorary doctorate. Where that herd immunity at? Still waiting... :-X We are still waiting for you to explain how effective test-and-traceback is for covid, given the numbers in Europe. Do you remember what you were writing in March? Test, test, test, right? SJ Yes--clearly I am wrong--we should stop testing altogether--that will make things better: no tests, no cases!

You let the gymnasts do what they do best! We are merely here to enjoy the show! TBF--Trump may not be a moron after all with the latest revelation--he knew the threat for what it was, he was just lying through his teeth, mocking masks, and holding indoor rallies. So, he is just deceitful and manipulative and crammed his supporters (incl Herman Cain) indoors without masks--so the real question is: what do you call the people who listen to/believe what Trump says? I think Trump has a word for such people: starts with an "S" and rhymes with "puckers"

Hey muscle--no one on here understands this virus better than you--that's for sure! I grant you an honorary doctorate. Where that herd immunity at? Still waiting... :-X

To add: What's worse--the same number of deaths over a long period of time late in 2020 (USA) or a brief period of time early in 2020 (Italy)? One was far more preventable & controllable than the other. And that's before considering the fact that one of the two had remdesevir, ICU techniques (proning, etc), steroids, warm weather, time to prepare and distance/wear masks, prep ICU beds, expand capacity, and lots more advancements to fight covid... We are clearly learning who the "suckers" and "losers" in this whole process were--those who listened to and supported the sociopathic leader. No worries--this is how he rolls--he's always needed a pile of "suckers" (his words) to make it in life. He uses his bag of tricks to get folks to act against their own self interest and for his own gain. And it works on many!

Lots more clowning where that came from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-09/trump-told-woodward-he-intentionally-downplayed-virus-risks?srnd=premium Downplaying mask wearing, comparing it to the Flu, and holding indoor rallies surely did not allow it to spread & kill more in the U.S. than it should have (RIP Herman Cain). Good thing we had fellow board members who parroted the claims too! They served their master well.

What I always picture from “often wrong, never in doubt” ;D

Turns out one major world leader knew how deadly the virus was back in Feb (recorded on tape) while publicly downplaying it (and politicizing masks and holding indoor rallies, of course!): https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bob-woodward-rage-book-trump/2020/09/09/0368fe3c-efd2-11ea-b4bc-3a2098fc73d4_story.html “Like the Flu!” Look forward to the usual MAGA defense playbook: