Dalal.Holdings

Did we drain the swamp yet? His hacienda indeed. And his zombie followers fall for it (thinking he's looking out for the 'little guy') every single time. Now prepare to watch this whistleblower's name dragged through the mud by the zombies willing to do their master's bidding.

So basically, the conspiracy theories being peddled by Trump and eaten up by his followers. LOL. ;D How convenient, but not surprised that a Trump supporter would try to mislead by distorting the truth. You never asked me about the Wuhan lab theory. For the record, I don't believe it. The plain meaning of Taleb's tweet is clear: when he says "IYIs on Trump," he's talking about you. Nah, he's talking about people who underestimated him, but I'm not going to pretend to speak for him. I'll let you (try to) do that. Again, also conveniently leaving out Taleb's criticism of Trump's Wuhan conspiracy. Edit: Darn, broke my rule about not responding to nonsense dwellers.

If you have any facts to share on COVID19 or the response to the crisis, go for it. Otherwise, you're the Trump propaganda bot. What is a China propaganda bot? Is this one? “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus,” Trump wrote in a post on Twitter. “The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!” If you have to ask, you've failed the Turing test. What ever happened to 'infidels'? What's up with the newfangled name calling? Such clever propaganda -- all criticisms are just lies from the infidels. You are falling for it head over heels. Yes, anyone who disagrees with them is a 'bot', 'traitor', 'not a patriot', etc. Yet they're the ones who want to deny states suffering from crisis aid and they're the ones who put a sociopath in office that will "destroy the system". They came over from the politics section section because they can't stand by while their dear leader is criticized for his terrible management of the pandemic! Sunk cost fallacy! Trump bag holders... Taleb on the above victims of TDS: ". . . victims of paranoia can find a narrative that impeccably matches all facts, people collectively fall prey to these shared delusions. 'Intelligent' people can be more vulnerable Remember the Iraq WMDs or IYIs on Trump" I'm not delusional on why Trump won and why he has a fair shot of winning again. I fully understand why his followers will follow him off a cliff. He is quite talented at what he does. Funny that you left out the first part of Taleb's tweet: So basically, the conspiracy theories being peddled by Trump and eaten up by his followers. LOL. ;D How convenient, but not surprised that a Trump supporter would try to mislead by distorting the truth.

I love how some people have been convinced that "crashing the system" will be good for them, or will somehow lead to what they want to see happen, rather than just the opposite (a society with an even bigger, more corrupt, more incompetent government and fewer freedoms is the most likely outcome of a big crash, not a small, efficient, honest government and more liberty). They're the people who con artists and charlatans just love. These are the folks who quickly call others out on “being un-American” and people who “are lazy and don’t know how to work hard and it’s their fault they’re poor”, but now it’s “the system has failed me, let’s burn it all down”. These are the folks who would praise Trump defaulting on U.S. credit obligations.

Yep, I can imagine it pretty easily—they’d be roasted by Trump supporters because Trump always gets a pass and he knows this (as he showed with shooting on 5th avenue example). Double standards for Mr. “Always looking out for the little guy” Trump.

The main takeaway from BRK annual meeting: old folks have lived through a lot more stuff, esp when it comes to markets. Do not underestimate the wisdom that comes from this...

Singapore: 18 deaths/19,000 cases Deaths not growing any faster... Is it all attributed to "healthy" migrants?

Good talk, and right on the money with the lack of price discovery, a large part due to anchoring bias. So Sam Zell, Buffett, and Icahn are cautious on the sidelines and on the other side you have folks like Bill Ackman. Take your pick...

If you have any facts to share on COVID19 or the response to the crisis, go for it. Otherwise, you're the Trump propaganda bot. What is a China propaganda bot? Is this one? “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus,” Trump wrote in a post on Twitter. “The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!” If you have to ask, you've failed the Turing test. What ever happened to 'infidels'? What's up with the newfangled name calling? Such clever propaganda -- all criticisms are just lies from the infidels. You are falling for it head over heels. Yes, anyone who disagrees with them is a 'bot', 'traitor', 'not a patriot', etc. Yet they're the ones who want to deny states suffering from crisis aid and they're the ones who put a sociopath in office that will "destroy the system". They came over from the politics section section because they can't stand by while their dear leader is criticized for his terrible management of the pandemic! Sunk cost fallacy! Trump bag holders...

So let me get this straight. The states that pay more than the receive (let's call them the makers) tend to be large and blue. The states that pay less than they receive tend to be small and red (let's call them the takers). The makers are more affected by this because it turns out that density matters in how a virus spreads. But the makers and the takers should get the same amount on money. Moreover the takers should get a lot more per capita because they are smaller. In addition the takers who don't need the money for health care because they have low density should feel free to spend the money on whatever they want i.e tax cuts (preferably on the rich) as is their custom. Did I get this one right? But please feel free to lecture me more about corruption, China and the fisting of the common man. The Trump supporters claim they are against welfare and food stamps. That's not true when it comes to themselves. They come up with all sorts of excuses to get welfare/handouts for themselves, they just call it by a different name to preserve their pride. The red states routinely take in more from high GDP blue states, they can't face that reality though. Let's not forget the GOP's favorite handout--farm "subsidies". What do you call Trump's efforts to bail out the energy sector and subsidize it? Welfare, just not by name. What do you call the massive defense budget/corrupt contractor relationships? More welfare. I will leave aside other Trump welfare programs for his supporters: the trade war and his anti-immigration stances are meant for workers who can't compete in the global economy. Yes, China engages in unfair practices and illegal immigration should be curtailed, but the broader purpose of anti-globalization and anti-immigration is beyond that--it's also to partially subsidize those who can't compete. Didn't R's use to say "if you want to be successful, just lift yourself up by your bootstraps and work hard, son!" Guess that don't apply anymore.

“All presidents r bad” is the new “both parties r bad”. False equivalence fallacy much? I don’t remember when Abraham Lincoln said he wouldn’t have assaulted that woman because she wasn’t attractive enough... Trump fools ordinary folk the most—what do you expect from an Atlantic city casino/reality TV guy. Too bad those ordinary folk think he’s their guy—cutting corporate taxes to the bone is his largest fiscal accomplishment. “New NAFTA” will not stop worker pain. His OPEC “deal” will not save oil workers. And coronavirus will hurt poor/non middle class the most. And this recession will be another huge hit on these folk. You actually think a guy who hangs out with Steve Mnuchin, Tom Barrack, Carl Icahn, Roger Stone, etc has ordinary folks’ interest at heart? His ability to fool the common man is his greatest talent.

Sons/daughters living with elders could make things worse. This was one of the theories as to why Italy had such a bad outbreak--elderly in frequent, close contact with younger relatives.

Do u remember when we had Presidents who weren't sociopaths? Pepperidge Farm remembers (it was only pre-Jan 2017)...

Singapore continues to have exceptionally low mortality (1/1000 of confirmed cases). This could be due to: 1) Recent rise in infections (deaths could surge in the coming weeks) 2) Aggressive testing (leading to large # of confirmed cases), contact tracing (limiting spread to vulnerable groups) Or, more optimistically: 3) Protection in the host in humid/warm (tropical) climates due to factors such as enhanced innate immune protection of lung--which has been shown with Influenza: https://www.pnas.org/content/116/22/10905 If #3 is true, one would hope for a drop in mortality during the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere. Also if true, perhaps this would be the ideal time to catch it and (hopefully) develop immunity. This is all speculation at this point.

3 trial results came out the same day: NIH ACTT trial - discharge in 11 days vs 15, mortality 8% vs 11.6% in Remdesivir vs control arms ( so reduced morbidity, second order effects on reducing overburdened health care systems) https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-shows-remdesivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19 SIMPLE trial - 5 days and 10 days use showed no significant differences (so can be used in shorter course). IDK why they did not release any data about the control arm in this one, I thought it had it... https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2020/4/gilead-announces-results-from-phase-3-trial-of-investigational-antiviral-remdesivir-in-patients-with-severe-covid-19 China Remdesivir trial 237 patients data - no significant mortality benefit https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext As far as the twitter poster goes, one point well taken is that the next population to study in trials would be earlier start of treatment (now that we have same day per testing) and high risk non-hospitalized patients (somehow delivering at home maybe). Sarilumab phase 2 data also came out, with phase 2 outcome met and phase 3 trial focusing on critically ill patients only where potential to reduce mortality is being seen. Thirdly a lot of attention is going towards the prothrombotic effects of the virus as well as proning early. Stacking all of them and what we know about the virus after all this time, I think mortality will be lower in the future, although a little bit lower not a lot lower (just my opinion). The problem with early therapy using Remdesivir is that it's very hard to manufacture. If you are opening up Remdesivir to not just severe cases, but mild/moderate and earlier stages in infection when symptoms are not that bad, that potentially opens up millions of potential patients as candidates for therapy. As we know, ~80% of people don't get to severe. You would now be treating a lot of those 80% with the drug instead of reserving it to just the severe patient group (because you have little idea which patients will end up with severe manifestations and which ones will not early in the course of covid). Meanwhile, Gilead is only going to have achieved 140,000 courses manufactured by the end of May. They are hoping for ~1 million # of courses manufactured by end of yr I believe... https://www.wsj.com/articles/gilead-to-expand-manufacturing-of-covid-19-drug-remdesivir-11588281598

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-02/buffett-stays-on-the-sidelines-amid-market-tumble-as-cash-climbs

The market has provided ample opportunity for those who missed this in March to cash out with the S&P now where it was in October 2019. There should be no valid excuse for these people if they lose their shirts.

I’m actually worrying more about long term damage to the economy from overreaction. Closing outdoor spaces (beaches and parks) makes very little sense for something that spreads via respiratory droplets. Keep those outdoor venues open and force 6 ft distancing...these journo photos that shame beach goers is not helping and is ridiculous. Lockdowns have served a useful purpose. We did not run out of vents and icu beds in hard hit regions and people throughout the country have changed their behavior. It’s time to reopen because I do not think the benefit for further lockdowns outweigh the costs... Trump on Sweden: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1255825648448348161?s=21 Guess he supported the lockdowns all along.

The China study did not show statistical significance and it was in patients with severe disease. The NIAD ACTT study (Not necessarily in as "severe" patients, but hospitalized ones who have imaging findings or need supplemental O2 or a few other criteria) did not show statistical significance in mortality, but did show reduction in time to recovery that was statistically significant. Unfortunately does not seem to be a game changer based on the NIAD press release (study hasn't been published yet), but so far Remdesivir is the only drug that has been shown to do something in a RCT in Covid (unlike Hydroxychloroquine/Azithro), so it's something I guess. So the ACTT shows that it works in patients, but not necessarily severe ones (per inclusion criteria at https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04280705). This may indicate that Remdesivir works if administered earlier, before the disease becomes severe. The problem with this is that Gilead has indicated that it takes a lot of resources and time to manufacture doses of this medication (I believe their estimates are to have enough for hundreds of thousands of rounds of treatment this year) and if we are not restricting Remdesivir to only severe patients but giving it to everyone hospitalized, we may not have enough of the drug because that is a fairly large number of patients...

It's just unfair to compare Germany, which is led by a former quantum chemist, to the USA which is led by a reality TV persona. You don't have to go to PhDs in quantum chemistry... In general, it's hard to find a country led by someone dumber than the US right now. There's a lot of countries on the planet, so there's probably some out there, but none come to mind. This is why I say just reopen and encourage precaution for those who will do it. We’re stuck with our leadership until Jan 2021 at the very least, so waiting it out with more lockdowns doesn’t seem to be worth the economic costs. Some places will come out of lockdown stronger/more prepared than others due to varying response throughout the country and varying demographics/density. We proved we’re not S Korea and we’re proving we’re not Germany.

I am of the opinion we should reopen strategically and those who choose to be careful can continue to be careful and those who don’t won’t. Federal gov’t has not developed enough testing/contact tracing to do this in the safest way, but there is little hope they will if given more time due to overall incompetence. We’ll get back to our lives, but the world won’t be like it was before—certainly not for some time. I think certain healthcare sites will just have to have covid units for the considerable future. We have changed certain aspects of our behavior that will protect more individuals, but I do believe unfortunately that large portions of the population will continue to be high risk. At this point, it looks like it will be endemic in many countries for some time. And no, herd immunity is not coming anytime soon.

Interestingly, they have heat and humidity in abundance. They also have density though (migrant dorms, public transit, etc). Only 12 deaths which means 1) they are testing like crazy and/or 2) the deaths will grow as these relatively new cases run their course (likely a combination of the two). One other interesting thing to think about—is the disease less severe in hot/humid climates? It is well known that some of the innate immune defenses of the lung such as mucociliary clearance work better in warmer, humid environments. Lungs may actually be better protected if you catch this in warm & humid climates...the optimist in me wants to believe it, but we’ll have to see how mortality in Singapore evolves... However we should note that Singapore, like S Korea (and unlike neighbor Malaysia) is aggressively testing and contact tracing since early days—this reduces mortality too.

Haha—that would put a lot of traders out of work!

If you don’t have access to storage, it will be in your interest to pay someone who does to take the contracts off your hands. Perhaps the negative floor for margin calculations should be the current cost of storage in Cushing.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1254747293414305792?s=20 Delays checks so he can put his name on them...then attempts to shift blame onto other party. Brilliant--will 100% work on his muppet followers. Donald "I have total authority" yet "I accept no responsibility" Trump. A great leader and an even better puppeteer!