Dalal.Holdings

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/japan-china-sanae-takaichi-xi-jinping-d5d1a97d?mod=hp_lead_pos8 Takaichi is more outspoken, but that could bite back too

I really don’t know what to say to this as it makes no sense to me.

Again...there is a missing party here. Europe could simply step in and say "Thank you for your help, Donald. We'll take it from here and back Ukraine in its fight"...but strangely that is not really something that is being proposed by Ursula, Friedrich, Emmanuel, or Kier...

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze6r2zk5d3o The fact that this is a position of the "far right" party shows you how far to the left the mainstream in the UK has gone. Once again, the charities, non-profits, and NGOs in Europe work to tug on people's heartstrings and get politicians to enact economically catastrophic policies.

Disincentivize the wealthy from staying. Disincentivize people from working. Incentivize migrants to come in for free benefits. "Show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome"

I think this is clear and one of the key ways I am positioned. I think that Putin and Trump (and Vance) are the catalysts that will push Europe to build up their military capabilities to be less and less dependent on the U.S. (incl U.S. defense contractors). Now, I could still be wrong and the Europeans just go back to doing nothing by force of habit. We'll see... As to whether Trump has leverage over Ukraine--if he does not and the U.S. stops supporting them and they go on fighting without the U.S., then Europe will have to step in in a much bigger and faster way which means the European defense super-cycle gets juiced even harder

Trump wants the war to end. By doing something that freaks out the Europeans, he has created a sense of urgency that forces them to come up with a plan (which they have been furiously working on the past few days and clouded their G20 summit). Leaders like Trump are proactive while the leaders of Europe are reactive. Just the way the world works these days.

Yeah yeah, just smell the roses and go back to sleep while the Chinese and Americans focus. One thing about Americans is we do not easily rest, even when things are going well for us. I'm afraid that a lot of the differences between U.S. and Europe are hard to change cultural factors. However, when the pensions and safety nets in Europe come undone, it might come as a shock to Europeans (prospect of raising the pension age is the one thing that gets the French to march in the streets) The title of this thread is "Is Europe becoming uninvestable?" Not "Is Europe Livable?"

The thing about Trump is he doesn't mind causing chaos to advance his goals. The document certainly got the attention of the world (Ukraine, European leaders, etc) to mobilize and come up with a counter-document, did it not ? A lot of people freaked out and it forced them into a sense of urgency and now an end to the war is seriously being discussed It's best not to get too riled up with Trump's moves (as was seen on social media and threads like this one) because it is liable to give you whiplash Now whether Putin accepts the new terms is a big question mark, but Trump's move last week did get people moving quickly...

Honestly, when I read takes like these from @Charlie , it makes me most worried about investing in Europe. Because it tells me that a lot of Europeans really don't understand the mess they are in. Please tell me what ideas I am hammering in my head? Does Europe have some hidden tech champions I have never heard of? Are the EU regulations from the past decade "just in my head"? Lack of diffusion of tech into the economy, auto sector implosion, GDP stagnation, lack of independent & capable military forces, productivity issues, migrant issues, Draghi report, overall European stock returns all "in my head" ? Do you just ignore these figures? What about the rise of AfD/ReformUK/National Rally in the polls? Just in my head? Yes, you can live a very good life right now in Europe. If it continues on this track, get back to me in 10, 20 years and let me know what quality of life is like in Europe (you'll have to exclude Poland though because they seem to get it). And even today, the quality of life in Europe has diverged significantly from the U.S. Just compare salaries in different fields between U.S. and European countries.

Always a bad sign when too many Fintwit/Substack bros are in a name I love that he calls it P/E of 5. Fintwit guys love spitting out meaningless numbers like that to justify losing money

I'm not going to fish in certain ponds even if they contain fish. I would never invest in Russia and I don't invest in China due to major governance issues. Though I am currently invested, Europe could end up the same way. Europeans (incl the UK) need to decide if they actually want capitalism. Right now, they think they have good quality of life (welfare state) and can sustain it without capitalism. They think that big tech is evil. They think that the wealthy are bad. They think military forces/nationalism is bad. They think any industry that creates CO2 is bad. The problem is that they do not realize that if they give up these things, their quality of life (welfare state) is going to eventually go away as well. The Ukraine situation should be an eye opener if any of them are paying attention. If they continue on this path, they will have no seat at the table. No say in global affairs that concern even their own continent. I mean, look at the COP summit. Look at G20 now. No one really cares what European leaders say or do. Right now, they are just coasting on benefits earned in the past without realizing that the clock is ticking.

Never said I was “ok” with anything. Merely pointing out that the Europeans need to develop some agency in the affairs of their continent (currently they have very little and no real seat at the big boy table).

Sure, the deal in current form looks lopsided against Ukraine. My overarching point though is Europe has had since 2014 to prepare for this moment and they have not. European leaders were not even included in drafting this thing. They have no seat at the table. Today is their reckoning for not building up their forces. Merz/Macron/Starmer look absolutely clueless. If they had the capabilities, they could tell Ukraine "we'll back you even if the U.S. stops sharing intel and weapons". The problem is they don't. I am hoping this is a wake up call to European leaders and I am positioned accordingly in European defense names, but I am also wary that if the war ends, Europeans will find yet another excuse to kick the can further down the road and not invest in their own defense capabilities. However, I think Trump is unlikely to allow NATO countries to underinvest in defense anymore...

Yeah. When is France going to deploy its aircraft carrier and supposed advanced military to support Ukraine? Doesn’t the ESA have the satellites to replace U.S. intelligence gathering ?

Not to worry, Ukraine’s European allies have been preparing for this moment since 2014. They will surely be able to provide the intelligence and logistics that Ukraine needs to continue fighting. Surely!

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/european-defence-stocks-fall-signs-us-push-over-ukraine-war-2025-11-19/ Peace in Ukraine might be short term bearish for these companies, but I'm having a hard time seeing NATO countries being able to pull back from their spending targets, even if the war does end. DJT (and JD Vance) has made it clear he will hold them to account for meeting their targets and Merz seems intent on boosting spending. I think if the sell off persists long enough in Euro defense names, there will be some good opportunities

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-21/ukraine-and-european-allies-reject-key-parts-of-us-russian-plan?srnd=homepage-americas The cost of not having independent & capable armed forces should be clear now to European countries. They sat around for decades not contributing to their militaries. If European countries want a seat at the table, they'll have to come up with a real military force... Europe does not have much leverage in these negotiations today and it's quite a sight to see

I just checked and NVDA is all the way back down to where it was in …August. And yet people are talking about the sky falling. It’s incredible how emotionally levered some people seem to be, especially those who partake in these frothy stocks. I guess it’s implicit acknowledgement that there’s little downside protection with these things once they turn—hence the panic

I guess the real criticism is globalization which to me has wide overlap with Free Traders. At the end of the day, this philosophy was pushed by World Economic Forum, a bunch of economists at prominent universities, and elites around the world. It started when China was admitted to the WTO and snowballed from there. They used to say things like "well Adam Smith said trade is good and nations should specialize, so it's fine if China takes this over from us". They pushed this as a good thing for everyone as blue collar folks lost their jobs, wealth inequality widened, and strategic sectors were coopted by China (or in Germany's case, its energy generation outsourced to Russia and its auto technology and high end manufacturing IP taken by China). The fox was let into the henhouse... Then a guy named Trump got elected in 2016 and it turns out that some of his views on protectionism, trade barriers (esp in strategic sectors) was spot on, even though his "well educated" critics will never admit it.

Is that morning in Europe ?

Man, I guess Free Trade is not always good, especially with an authoritarian country like China. Somebody alert the World Economic Forum and distinguished economists around the world...

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/europe-must-not-cede-digital-sphere-us-china-warns-germanys-merz-2025-11-18/ It seems lately Merz is trying to fight every self-inflicted crisis that has befallen the continent due to atrocious decisions made the past decade by European leaders. Europe's widening tech gap w U.S./China. No real military forces to defend the continent. Infrastructure in Germany in shambles. Energy crisis. German automakers getting wrecked. Overall economic stagnation. And yet, just about all of these crises were (and continue to be) self-inflicted largely by the leaders of the past decade in the continent...and the fact that some Europeans still fail to acknowledge them or how to solve them is astounding...

https://www.theverge.com/news/823788/europe-cookie-prompt-browser-changes-proposal “The European Commission wants browsers to manage cookie preferences instead of pop-ups on every website” The problem with regulators is when they write bad regulations, it takes them a decade+ to fix it (if ever). It took pressure from mostly U.S. tech, an existential crisis where Europe has fallen far behind U.S. and China in tech to convince EU regulators to do this common sense step that should have been done long ago. These regulators are really really bad for Europe--not to mention the politicians, interest groups (like NGOs) that also did their part in creating this nonsense...

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/11/18/france-germany-support-simplification-push-for-digital-rules-as-commission-preps-revision- The NGOs in Europe, full of elite, mostly leftist folks who went to university for useless degrees, are among the worst forces in Europe responsible for the economic quagmire of the continent. They egged on shut down nuclear in Germany, migrant crisis, regulating their industries to death for AI, deforestation, GDPR, etc. They are the lobbyists that EU bureaucrats love to listen to instead of ASML, Mistral, etc who they view as "corrupt corporations"... It seems like the crisis is leaving the more pragmatic folks no choice but to go against these NGO type forces...and they should be praised for doing so The leftist groups and NGOs are opposed to deregulation...is anyone surprised ? Taking away every website asking about permission for cookies somehow "undermines fundamental rights"... these guys are truly clueless