Dalal.Holdings

As you can see from one of the last countries hit w the pandemic (USA), leadership does not matter—now hold that indoor rally with 20k! “You’re doin’ fine, Oklahoma! Oklahoma, OK!” A shame we had to change the slogan from “Keep America Great” back to “Make America Great Again” (strange slogan for an incumbent...). Surely we will achieve greatness on our current trajectory, all we need is four more years of this!

It’s all politics! Millions of cases since January! Like the Flu! Only dense blue areas affected due to poor mgmt but not R0! Ignore Miami and Houston and dumb graphs I don’t understand! Good luck

This is why I no longer post here. You get the level of analysis you deserve, CoBF!

Yeah, same arguments have been used about Bezos' ventures. You should pursue the strategy you are proposing here: invest while looking in the rear view mirror (Boeing) instead of through the windshield. P.S., based on private valuations for SpaceX and public valuations for Tesla, do you really want me to answer the question "much money has Elon made per dollar invested for its investors"? Yeah, I get it, you are fixated on trailing GAAP earnings or some other profit measure. I don't think that's the right way to look at these--especially not SpaceX at this stage, but good luck. Exactly. Compare capital raised to what they’ve accomplished. How much would it have cost NASA/Boeing/Lockheed to achieve the same things? In a lot of cases these firms have taken the money and produced nothing of value other than non functional prototypes. SpaceX has produced lots of value however with tiny capital as an underdog against these behemoths. That’s good capital allocation in my book. I know, to basic value investors, capital allocation only applies to buybacks and mergers and immediate GAAP ROIs. People like Bezos and Musk pursue a different route and in the process achieve massive moats. Sorry, but it can work out very, very well for investors. Either adapt to this reality or not in this ZIRP world. Your choice.

It’s in contractor’s interests to pursue cost plus contracts and unfortunately a reality in DoD and NASA. Elon has long been outspoken against this. Of course Boeing and Lockheed don’t mind cost plus... You can also read about Munger’s thoughts on cost plus contracts here: https://seekingalpha.com/amp/instablog/234439-whitney-tilson/5407617-charlie-mungers-2020-daily-journal-annual-meeting-liveblog

::) Good luck.

If you seriously think comparing SpaceX's history (18 years) with that of Boeing's (104 years) is an Apples to Apples comparison, be my guest. I get it, you are fixated on trailing GAAP earnings or some other profit measure. I don't think that's the right way to look at these--especially not SpaceX at this stage, but good luck.

Yeah, same arguments have been used about Bezos' ventures. You should pursue the strategy you are proposing here: invest while looking in the rear view mirror (Boeing) instead of through the windshield. P.S., based on private valuations for SpaceX and public valuations for Tesla, do you really want me to answer the question "much money has Elon made per dollar invested for its investors"? Yeah, I get it, you are fixated on trailing GAAP earnings or some other profit measure. I don't think that's the right way to look at these--especially not SpaceX at this stage, but good luck.

More great dollars spent on yet-to-be-launched vehicles (this one from Lockheed and some Airbus too): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-23/lockheed-wins-4-6-billion-nasa-contract-for-orion-spacecraft 2006! Lol, SpaceX was started with part of Elon's Paypal winnings ($Millions, not $Billions) not to long before that... Being a defense/NASA contractor is one of those wide moat, sit on your ass and produce nothing, high margin businesses...or was until that pesky SpaceX came along and started ruining it with the low cost/launch model... Compare all these $billions with the $36B or so SpaceX was valued at earlier this year (amount of cumulative capital raised is much smaller than this) and you ought to get the picture...

Yeah. The 737 Max is my evidence. As they say--more than just one cockroach in the kitchen. When they gonna fly the Max again? How much capital has Boeing soaked up in its space launch program vs SpaceX? Better look closely buddy. You can start here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System Hint: cost per launch: $500M to $2B; Project cost: over $18 Billion (so far) The thing is you don't know how much capital has been burned. That's the point of space x being private. 737 max is a problem and companies sometimes have problems. But Boeing has been profitable for a long time. When is the last time that Space X or a musk affiliate company has been profitable? I'm not sure I'm the one with the bias, Sir.

We are the biased ones, clearly because the SpaceX founder says some crazy things on Twitter and must be a fraud. Need a real CEO. Where Muilenburg at?

Yeah. The 737 Max is my evidence. As they say--more than just one cockroach in the kitchen. When they gonna fly the Max again? How much capital has Boeing soaked up in its space launch program vs SpaceX? Better look closely buddy. You can start here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System Hint: cost per launch: $500M to $2B; Project cost: over $18 Billion (so far) Some really amusing stuff in here: I must surely be biased here!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nasa-investigating-former-officials-contacts-with-boeing-on-lunar-contracts-11591538265 NASA Investigating Former Official’s Contacts With Boeing on Lunar Contracts One wonders how many cockroaches exist in the kitchen of cozy defense/gov't contractor relations: DoD/NASA/etc with companies like Boeing, Lockheed, etc. And remember: SpaceX got a grant of $3.1Bn from NASA to develop a crew capsule. Boeing got $4.8Bn. Spacex had its first successful test almost a year and a half ago, and just 1 week ago ferried two live astronauts safely to the ISS. Boeing had a test fail 6 mo ago due to basic software mistake (clock programmed incorrectly)--I'm sure not the only flaw. Since then, nothing. That’s taxpayer money. And Elon is the one who is no genius and a fraud, right boys? Elon is an inefficient/wasteful capital allocator in your minds? Enjoy regularly flushing those taxpayer funds down the Boeing toilet.

Some people are conflating their hardship of the 2008-2020 time to Obama, that's for sure. Just because he was President does not mean he caused the hardship. Correlation doe not imply causation. When Obama walked into the Oval Office on January 2009, we were in the midst of the largest recession since GD (that Republican guy before him was in charge leading up to it). The GFC might have more to do with people's hardships leading to vote for Trump than Obama. In the 1930s, there was a lot of radicalism in Europe and the U.S. due to the Great Depression. Similar story for 2008-now. Easier to blame Obama, I get it. Do you really think Obama hit Wall St has hard as he should of? Or did all of the bankers contributing to his campaign help make sure that didn't happen? I don't think this conversation belongs in this thread. So here's my last take on this: - Your "bankers contributing to his campaign" is ridiculous and you know it--just because an employee at a big bank donates up to a few thousand dollars to a campaign does not mean someone is in the pocket of banks. Certainly not in the same ballpark as having people like Gary Cohn and Steve Mnuchin (Goldman alum) in charge of economic affairs... - Wall Street was no fan of Obama, getting seriously butt hurt about him calling them "fat cats" early in his term in '09; There was also an occupy Wall St protest that occurred during his admin: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB126073152465089651 - The problem was that the time to be tough on Wall St was not after the crisis, but before it. Republicans GWB and Alan Greenspan believed in "financial innovation" and let Wall St run amuck in 2000s up to 2008 and when they left office, everything fell apart just in time for Obama to enter in January '09 - Obama could not aggressively attack Wall St during GFC because he needed the economy to recover and for that to happen, banks to lend again and people to have confidence in the banks again; I am not sure what you are proposing. Should he have nationalized the banks instead? - I am not sure what the alternative to Obama that would have resulted in whatever you are after. Mr Bain Capital Mitt Romney? You think Mr. Private Equity would have helped the common man and taken on Wall St? How about Donaldo who makes Stevie Mnuchin/Gary Cohn (The Goldman guys) his leads on economic matters and cuts corporate taxes to the bone? Is he "taking on Wall St"??? - So tell me--how is the common man doing after 3 yrs of Trump? Donaldo is not here to help the common man, but he is quite adept at conning the common man. The common man seems to relish voting against his own interest. Oh well, at least some people think they have their guy in the WH--I guess that's all that matters. I do acknowledge his talent for manipulating such people--he is quite skilled at it. I guess Obama was not manipulative enough to get people to think he was on their side. He was too "professorial" for their tastes (i.e. made them feel dumber). They need a POTUS that speaks/tweets on their level--too bad he won't give them actual economic results they desire.

For the record, murdering cops is reprehensible and cops sure as hell don’t have an easy job. Dunno what that has to do with “my guy”. Oh, you must be thinking of Dallas shooting which was weakly linked to BLM. Where Obama spoke: “We still don’t know all the facts. What we do know is that there’s been a vicious, calculated and despicable attack on law enforcement. Police in Dallas were on duty, doing their job, keeping people safe during a peaceful protest. These law enforcement officers were targeted, and nearly a dozen officers were shot, five were killed. Other officers and at least one civilian were wounded. Some are in serious conditions and we are praying for their recovery. As I told Mayor Rawlings, and I believe that I speak for every single American when I say, that we are horrified over these events and that we stand united with people and the police department in Dallas.” "“First the shootings in Minnesota and Baton Rouge, the protests, then the targeting of police by the shooter here — an act not just of demented violence, but of racial hatred. All of it’s left us wounded and angry and hurt. It’s as if the deepest fault lines of our democracy have suddenly been exposed, perhaps even widened." Don't see him making false equivalences here... https://fortune.com/2016/07/08/transcript-obama-dallas-police-shootings/ Just a tad different than “Both Sides” Trump. Now back to coronavirus

That's the worst you can say about Obama? Man, he must've been a total angel. The best thing about this is it’s not even true—modern Antifa did not even become prominent in the U.S. until 2017–after Obama was out of office. :o All part of their game of deflection of Trump, getting you to argue nonsense. Now back to his mishandling of this pandemic... Before then it went by Black Lives Matter. You know the group that advocated violence, looting and even murdering of police officers and the attacking of folks who simply disagreed with them? Oh of course its convenient to leave that out. Yea.. go back to rooting for the virus to kill people and the economy so you can get some guy you dont like out of office... I forgot about the chronic butt hurt about BLM from Republicans...been a while. How dare you kneel! And of course the "BLM became Antifa" conspiracy theories [citation needed]. Reminds me of Pizza Gate. Meanwhile some kid got shot dead in GA while jogging and his shooters were scot free for two months until the broader public found out. Clearly nothing wrong with this and BLM has nothing to complain about with our justice system that surely does not discriminate... And there you go smearing others--accusing of "rooting for the virus to kill people". No, we are not, but nice try bud. You are one class act, that's for sure.

That's the worst you can say about Obama? Man, he must've been a total angel. The best thing about this is it’s not even true—modern Antifa did not even become prominent in the U.S. until 2017–after Obama was out of office. :o All part of their game of deflection of Trump, getting you to argue nonsense. Now back to his mishandling of this pandemic... An antifascist group had little to keep themselves busy under Obama. Yeah--Antifa became prominent in 2017 in response to Trump becoming President, so in Trumper's logic, we should blame Trump for everything bad Antifa does because they are merely a response to his existence. But then again--Obama is responsible for Trump existing, so by the associative property, Obama led to Antifa! Am I doing it right?

That's the worst you can say about Obama? Man, he must've been a total angel. The best thing about this is it’s not even true—modern Antifa did not even become prominent in the U.S. until 2017–after Obama was out of office. :o All part of their game of deflection of Trump, getting you to argue nonsense. Now back to his mishandling of this pandemic...

Some people are conflating their hardship of the 2008-2020 time to Obama, that's for sure. Just because he was President does not mean he caused the hardship. Correlation doe not imply causation. When Obama walked into the Oval Office on January 2009, we were in the midst of the largest recession since GD (that Republican guy before him was in charge leading up to it). The GFC might have more to do with people's hardships leading to vote for Trump than Obama. In the 1930s, there was a lot of radicalism in Europe and the U.S. due to the Great Depression. Similar story for 2008-now. Easier to blame Obama, I get it.

Oh really, now Bill Clinton's accusers aren't women? It's the particular woman that they don't believe, not all women. Isn't Harvey Weinstein a huge democrat? Crosby too, I'd guess. Didn't they also cancel that senator comedia and Louis CK and a bunch of other lefties? Weinstein was a hollywood guy with huge liberal connections (it's easy to cast hollywood elites as in bed with the dems when it's convenient and then "not relevant to dems" when it's also convenient). Al Franken was a Dem senator forced to resign due to Me Too by his own party (dems). Some people think Obama "race baited" because of things he did like go down to SC and sing "amazing grace" after that church got shot up by a racist. Or Obama pointed things out like discrimination of African Americans every time a black kid got shot by the cops on camera for minor infraction. These people equate that to Trump saying "both sides" were bad after a racist nut ran over a crowd in Charlottesville as equivalent to the above from Obama--should tell you pretty much all you need to know. False equivalence fallacy at its finest. They love "all politicians are bad, so might as well have Trump because everyone else is no different". The nuance is lost...

Grand Unified Theory in action. Note how the entire GWB administration with GOP in control of Congress for much of it is left out of history (8 years)... Another personal reminder for me to avoid the General Discussion thread as much as possible. Kicking myself for posting here this AM...carry on with the high quality analysis.

Likely not overcounted. NS is relying on excess mortality numbers but not adjusting downwards for traditional completeness estimates and not adjusting downwards (or upwards) for non-COVID death trends. The former is more important. Recent weekly reports of excess mortality are adjusted upwards for incompleteness, by determined by the %s of reports completed in a certain time t, compared to prior time t-1. This method assumes that excess COVID deaths are prevalent in all incomplete geographies equally - which is most likely not the case. Thanks, I know this is your area of expertise. These excess death numbers are not without issues either, but they serve as a good sanity check for the COVID-19 related death numbers . They revealed that the U.K. for example is undercounting (they admitted such pretty much), but Belgium (which has pretty bad looking numbers ) is over counting (since they count suspect cases as COVID-19 death). Something else to think about re: excess deaths. Are deaths due to crime, auto accidents, Flu much lower than prev yrs? If so, deaths attributable to covid might be even greater than # excess deaths. Some will say that is balanced by people dying early from other medical conditions that are being neglected in hard hit areas. It’s not clear, so excess deaths might be the best proxy.

False equivalence fallacy works wonders on the populace...you see it easily: Hunter Biden nepotism! (While Jared & Ivanka run pandemic response)! Biden has 1 accuser of assault! (Trump has over 25!) Her emails! His birth certificate is fake! (We haven’t even seen Trump’s tax returns) On the face of it, it’s pretty impressive how this guy’s antics work so well on some people all of the time. He surely has some great talents in manipulation... And amusing to see the Grand Unified Theory of Trumpers: “Trump’s incompetence is the fault of liberals/Obama! We wouldn’t have him if it weren’t for them! Forget the fact that I voted for and supported/support this guy!” Or more generally, The reason we have X is due to them liberals! I was never wrong! I take no responsibility!

The problem is we had a leader who initially didn’t want to spook markets during an election year (what happens when you have a sociopath who only puts self interest first). There was also and continues to be high level incompetence, and putting people in charge who are not qualified, but loyal to POTUS like Jared boy. Garbage in, garbage out. Some state leaders seem to be more competent and less driven by pure self interest though.

So this guy who goes around calling other forum members idiots is adding what value here?