Dalal.Holdings

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April. But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases. I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget". Don't think that you can attribute solely reopened bars for the increased spread. I think the widespread protests that has been occurring for a month now likely created plenty of vectors for spread. That some places are now seeing outbreaks shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a bit surprising is that NYC, by far the hardest hit city in the US, keeps seeing declines. Both are culprits but to different degrees. Bars are inside an enclosed place exposure, protests (and beaches and parks) are outside in open space exposure. This has dramatic impact on viral load and consequent spread and severity. Doesn’t explain why places with biggest protests are fine tho does it ?? FYI lots of protests happened in big EU cities too a few weeks ago after they saw what happened to Floyd. I think the most likely factor here is that the cities that saw very low levels of spread earlier on are now seeing more. That places like NYC and London continue to see declines in positivity rate despite widespread protests signals that the level of immunity in the population is an important factor. Nope, antibody positive rate in NYC is only about 15-20%. Also many EU cities had big Floyd protests and did not have spread like NYC previously. Try again.

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April. But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases. I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget". Don't think that you can attribute solely reopened bars for the increased spread. I think the widespread protests that has been occurring for a month now likely created plenty of vectors for spread. That some places are now seeing outbreaks shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a bit surprising is that NYC, by far the hardest hit city in the US, keeps seeing declines. Both are culprits but to different degrees. Bars are inside an enclosed place exposure, protests (and beaches and parks) are outside in open space exposure. This has dramatic impact on viral load and consequent spread and severity. Doesn’t explain why places with biggest protests are fine tho does it ?? FYI lots of protests happened in big EU cities too a few weeks ago after they saw what happened to Floyd.

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April. But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases. I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget". Don't think that you can attribute solely reopened bars for the increased spread. I think the widespread protests that has been occurring for a month now likely created plenty of vectors for spread. That some places are now seeing outbreaks shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a bit surprising is that NYC, by far the hardest hit city in the US, keeps seeing declines. Nice attempt to spin the narrative to protestors. Last I checked, largest protests were in MN, NYC, DC which are not seeing the spikes. Instead it’s AZ, TX, FL. This is really not that complicated. The physics of droplet spread outdoors with protestors wearing masks is not a significant source of spread. Oh I forgot we like economic tools like regressions on here instead of physics. Sorry to burst your political narrative. Deflect from the guy in charge who runs indoor, maskless rallies in AZ and OK in just the past week.

...And we just hit a record high for daily new covid cases in the U.S... Just "hype" from the "media". Nothing. To see. Here. Carry on.

Pretty much. Unfortunately, the R governors of FL and TX who Daddy "Hydroxychloroquine 'n Bleach" Trump whispers into the ears of will have a much higher threshold before they consider lockdowns. They may even try to avoid them. It will not be pretty. Just watch as all the Cuomo bashing goes quiet over the next weeks...

Speaking of Arizona, from today: https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix/2020/06/23/phoenix-rally-president-donald-trump-barely-mentions-covid-19-crowd-mostly-unmasked-supporters/3239570001/ First OK and now AZ. This guy just wants to seed it throughout the nation I guess. And AZ which is not looking too good right now...SMH Someone said this is like Global Warming--true in the sense that the same people who want to pretend Global Warming is not real are the same ones who want to pretend the Pandemic is not real. And the overlap is not a coincidence. Nonlinear, multi-order effects are very hard (for some people) to understand, especially when you're incentivized to not understand it. Apparently, so is invoking precaution in the face of risky outcomes. We Americans are getting more than a taste of what happens when we put these folks in the driver's seat...

Smart move. They ate their vegetables, now they move onto dessert. USA? Stuck in futile "isolate seniors/vulnerables" until/if a vaccine ever emerges. Oh, and economy takes on water over longer term now even without any more lockdowns. "Isolate seniors strategy" a.k.a. prepare for long term hits to tourism, entertainment, no spending by those who have money to spend (seniors/retirees), less spending even by young folks who also really don't want covid themselves, restaurant/hotel volume hits, etc etc. Oh, and good luck completely sealing off seniors from the rest of the population. Maybe we can pull some seniors out of retirement to run the nursing homes...

An absolute travesty of leadership.

I would not say the situation is same across the globe. EU countries, even Italy and Spain, have much fewer new cases by the day now and doing much better. USA in similar basket as Brazil and India with persistent new case formation. Guess we are like an emerging country now... Are we Great Again yet?

Given our existing dataset, we should know within a week or so if deaths inflect upwards if we expect the same lag time as in late March to hold. Nationally, cases really started inflecting up about 1 week ago, so it may be too soon to celebrate falling mortality numbers....Precautionary principle tells me better to worry than to blow it off and start celebrating, but that’s just me. Additionally, anyone looking at the daily data should see an obvious 7 day periodicity to the bars—rising during weekdays and falling on weekends with lowest counts on Sundays. This probably relates to testing/labs/reporting/etc falling during weekend as the virus doesn’t take weekends off, but some staff do. I would not celebrate too soon by looking at Sunday’s numbers of mortality (which is a lagging indicator itself). Saturday/Sunday’s case number continues to rise despite the weekend effect though which suggests even further rise in cases this week...

Lol... Something else that’s “weird”—the mortality graph is shifted to the right when compared to the case graph...almost like mortality lags cases and cases can be seen as an early warning sign of where mortality might be headed...hmmm...

I'm literally attaching the graph from your "Florida seems to be doing just fine" tweet and circling June hospitalizations here in case you miss it (#1 and #2 are the phased reopening marked by original tweet)... Again, you do not seem to understand how lagging indicators work. Hospitalizations/mortality move after delay due to the time course of covid infection (weeks after cases which are the leading indicators). Here you see hospitalizations trend down slightly after reopening, then back up in June (due to inherent delay) as expected. Younger age of cases does explain some of decreased mortality (so far) and weather/climate/humidity might help too (though it doesn't help Brazil). However there is a clear rise in % of positive tests, there are too many uncertainties, and this movie has played itself many times before in the same way to be ignored. Bottom line is that cases are shooting up in many states, hospitalizations are trending up, and hospitalizations/mortality are lagging indicators that should not be looked at as early warning signs... How are you differentiating between hospitalizations for medical issues other then covid/post op patients and those only with a postive covid dx and need for treatment? Am I missing this in the graph somewhere? ER vists across the country are up 100% of percent month over month. Are you counting admissions from this and non outpatient surgeries? That graph is from jamesmadison’s twitter source and it only includes FL covid hospitalizations per the author. As to your other point, I cannot speak for anyone else on here, but the argument was on how widespread covid was in USA in Jan/Feb and the difference of opinion I had with you was that it was not widespread, but did exist here in certain places like WA state back in January in smaller clusters in early stage exponential growth... I believe that the notion of it being “widespread” meaning millions or hundreds of thousands of cases in USA in Jan/Feb is debunked and there is nothing I have seen that supports that thesis, that is all.

I'm literally attaching the graph from your "Florida seems to be doing just fine" tweet and circling June hospitalizations here in case you miss it (#1 and #2 are the phased reopening marked by original tweet)... Again, you do not seem to understand how lagging indicators work. Hospitalizations/mortality move after delay due to the time course of covid infection (weeks after cases which are the leading indicators). Here you see hospitalizations trend down slightly after reopening, then back up in June (due to inherent delay) as expected. Younger age of cases does explain some of decreased mortality (so far) and weather/climate/humidity might help too (though it doesn't help Brazil). However there is a clear rise in % of positive tests, there are too many uncertainties, and this movie has played itself many times before in the same way to be ignored. Bottom line is that cases are shooting up in many states, hospitalizations are trending up, and hospitalizations/mortality are lagging indicators that should not be looked at as early warning signs...

One needs to stratify the U.S. by region to truly understand what is happening:

Nothing. To See. Here.

Speaking as one of Orhopa's smuggest critics, 100,000 deaths and mass graves were proof enough for me that he was wrong. Apparently to believe the "widespread/millions infected in January" thesis, you'd have to believe hundreds of thousands died back then and doctors had no idea what it was and put something else on the death certificate...Also none of those millions of people made it to FL, AZ, TX, OK, etc until now in June... Also, love the strawman attempt--to accuse those like us who saying it most certainly was not widespread in U.S. January as if we were saying it was not at all here in U.S. in January--we clearly stated it was here in Jan, particularly in WA state (even citing an infectious disease doctor in Seattle who was ignored back in January by Federal gov't/FDA). But yeah, either some people have memory problems or just aim to mislead about what was argued in the past. *Shrugs*

This is what some people call a failure of lockdowns: Remember, lockdowns went into effect in late March in NY and on March 9th in Italy, but we should ignore that timing. Clearly lockdowns do not work because they did not cause deaths to go down immediately on the day they went into effect. With lockdowns, we should expect deaths to decline immediately, not 2-3 weeks later like doctors say due to the natural progression of covid infection from onset to mortality. Again, we do not understand lagging indicators on here... It turns out in the case of Italy and NY, they might have been late when it comes to locking down, but it turns out that it is better late than never when it comes do lockdowns. Here we see two countries where universal lockdowns were not imposed (no eating carrots before moving onto dessert)--compare these to Italy, NY, and the EU--note the righthand part of the graphs: USA: Sweden (daily new cases): Sorry for polluting your precious minds with "useless" graphs!

Lol! For some reason, there is a strong "correlation" between whether one favors Trump and their willingness to dismiss the pandemic--the (former politics section Trumper) brigade is out in full force in this thread. Anyone want to run a regression on it? As I said--you get the "analysis" you deserve, CoBF. Here's one for people who are not beyond the level of reading graphs: Nothing to see here folks--just fake news alarmism and another dumb graph! Clearly it's just a blip of a "second wave" for FL, not a surging first wave at all! After all, it's been in the millions since January! And ignore those like me who disappear and then come back to warn like I did in early March. After all, I am focused on cases which in my flawed view are leading indicators of what's to come...Remember, we should ignore cases and focus on hospitalizations and mortality. Clearly mortality is going down when you divide by cases. And of course hospitalizations and mortality are the predictive indicators to look at right now, they are not lagging indicators, amirite? We clearly don't understand what lagging indicator means anyway on here...derp. Also, those claiming it's been here and "millions were infected" and that they saw many patients who had it in January--so strange that it is only surging now in FL in June. Weird--if it was widespread in January, what took so long to get to FL? Top level analysis. Keep it up.

What’s funny is that you fail to see that the convergence is only happening in places that failed to control this early on. S Korea, Japan, much of EU and even Italy and Spain now are doing well due to less new cases thanks to aggressive lockdowns and measures nationwide. The countries that are “converging” to your (brutal) strategy of essentially herd immunity are the ones that failed to control this when they had a chance thanks to laissez faire attitude—USA, Sweden, etc. And let me tell you—even without lockdown, and with “isolating the elderly”, many will perish and the economy will suffer for very long time with this strategy. Equivalent to the Grandma Rule: eating your carrots before you move onto dessert, USA didn’t eat its carrots so there will be no dessert. There are places in USA that did strap down like NY and NJ and so their new cases have plummeted, but that effort may now be in vain due to a surge in southern states. Other countries, particularly in EU will be able to move one from here because they ate their carrots. They will be in dessert phase while US muddies along with “seniors isolated” and months, maybe years of reduced economic output while you try to achieve that herd immunity... Thanks to pretty much no central (federal) leadership, USA will now learn what happens when you go from pandemic to endemic... You are listing NY and NJ as examples of places in the US that "ate their veggies". I find it astonishing that you would list the two states with the worst per capita covid death rates (4x the national average!!) as positive examples. You mention Spain and Italy as now doing well and call out Sweden, ignoring the simple fact that Sweden's per capita Covid death rate is lower than Italy and Spain. I am sorry, but this is not a persuasive argument. The evidence simply does not support that argument that Lockdowns (or Social Mobility) are what's driving the level of Covid mortality. I can’t help you. Good luck with that regression.

What’s funny is that you fail to see that the convergence is only happening in places that failed to control this early on. S Korea, Japan, much of EU and even Italy and Spain now are doing well due to less new cases thanks to aggressive lockdowns and measures nationwide when it counted. The countries that are “converging” to your (brutal) strategy of essentially herd immunity are the ones that failed to control this when they had a chance thanks to laissez faire attitude—USA, Sweden, etc. And let me tell you—even without lockdown, and with “isolating the elderly”, many will perish and the economy will suffer for very long time with this strategy. Equivalent to the Grandma Rule: eating your carrots before you move onto dessert, USA didn’t eat its carrots so there will be no dessert. There are places in USA that did strap down like NY and NJ and so their new cases have plummeted, but that effort may now be in vain due to a surge in southern states. Other countries, particularly in EU will be able to move one from here because they ate their carrots. They will be in dessert phase while US muddies along with “seniors isolated” and months, maybe years of reduced economic output while you try to achieve that herd immunity... Thanks to pretty much no central (federal) leadership, USA will now learn what happens when you go from pandemic to endemic...

This don’t look like the best time to hold an indoor rally, but wut do I kno? MAGA!

For some reason, the USA, the global epicenter of the pandemic (despite being hit late), continues to look bad and worse than just about any other place in the world including Wuhan and Italy. Surely this must be due to some 2 weeks protests in early June or the governor of a single state and yet have nothing to do with national leadership. Love reading the arguments that attempt to deflect the blame and our political brigade’s success in introducing topics such as flags up in this thread. Carry on and enjoy the rally.

Oh boy, regression analysis to hunt for correlations. Where could we go wrong? Let’s ignore basic physics of respiratory droplet spread and trust regression analysis! Please ignore Sweden and Italy/Spain/NY/NJ post lockdown. Some will never learn, dragging the U.S. through a never ending pandemic quagmire...

Clearly our political leader has nothing to do with the (mis)management of the pandemic! Trump defender brigade can’t answer, so deflect, deflect, deflect. And don’t look at the pile of 100k bodies...