Dalal.Holdings

For the record, I am not saying that what you are saying is definitely not going to come to pass--I believe there is a chance you are right and the probability is not zero, but just not that high and with wide confidence interval (on if we can in fact extrapolate from small studies to population and in fact there is cross immunity from other coronaviruses and if we have hit the 60-80% infected/immune nationwide). What I am questioning is the level of confidence/conviction you have for a complex, nonlinear multi-ordered process (immune system dynamics, population dynamics, etc etc). In other words, I think you are discounting the probability that you are wrong. The precautionary principle to me means it is better to be conservative when facing uncertainty instead of proceeding with "high conviction" about anything. In other words, having a large margin of safety when buying a stock...or wearing a seatbelt even if it's just a short neighborhood drive...or not being fully invested even if you are sure the bubble has a few more months/weeks to go... I hope the scenario of early herd immunity does pan out. Though I am afraid even if it does, the economic damage is done for the U.S. and we have a huge number of people who have suffered (needlessly IMO)...

If by "death rate" you mean [confirmed cases]/deaths, you certainly seem to be right based on the data we have already. Cases also appear to be inflecting down in FL, AZ and TX. So, I'm very curious what exactly you mean by "herd immunity" and why you think we'll have it by the end of the August. Do you think the NYC already has it? I already explained in prior posts. NYC already had 24% people antibody positive in early April, so probably 40% now. Also research shows likelihood of 40-60% of entire global population who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell can already fight COVID. So we are easily at 80% immunity in NYC. The proof is the 10k daily cases in March but no second spike in July. Now Texas and FL, with similar population size, have experienced what NY experienced in March, so in four weeks, the new daily cases should be sharply lower. I don't want to keep explaining things over and over. People who believe it will find evidence that confirms their view, and people who disbelieve it will also find evidence that confirms their view. My high conviction prediction is that by the end of August, the COVID situation is dramatically better. Then the Democrats will face tremendous pressure to reopen. Then Trump wins again in November. And to Dalal holdings, my prediction of the crash depends on many things and 6 month time line is just a tentative one. I have to revisit it later. I have high conviction that we are in the early stage of an asset bubble and I have high conviction that this bubble will burst. I have low conviction for the 6 month timeline. But as it approaches, I'll see it more clearly at that time. It is simply not a good idea to put your words into my month and say, yeah you agree with me and that the market will crash in 30 days and COVID will be gone in 30 days. I never said that. This is the info we needed from you—I believe you are inferring from the nature article on T cell reaction in unexposed patients? While certainly possible, I would not attach a high level of certainty to those results, certainly not extrapolating to the population level as you seem to do (N = 37) You have high certainty, but it’s a big leap... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

Muscle, I’ll let you know when I can get one of those charts that looks into the future...oh, wait looking at a leading indicator like rise in U.S. cases and predicting that that’s where deaths (lagging indicator) are headed is exactly what I did in June...almost like “looking in the windshield”... Anyway, you can’t help bringing up the market in covid thread. If in your windshield there is going to “be a crash” with “high conviction” in the next 6 mo—I ask, are you looking through your own windshield? FYI I try to avoid making short term market predictions (6 mo is short), and certainly not high conviction ones, so your posts are quite peculiar to me, especially the fact that you predict a crash while I do not. I only lament over dead Americans and long term damage inflicted to the economy... The latest bankruptcies: Lord & Taylor CPK Tailored Brands Do you think all of these would have occurred if covid had not resurged in June in the U.S.? Are we Great Again or what? I don't think you have a solid understanding of the virus. Probably no one has better understanding about it than me, at least in this forum. (Uh Oh, i don't want to sound like Trump..... ;)) This second wave will have far smaller death rate than the first one, and by the end of August, the US will have herd immunity and new daily cases will drop sharply and these Democratic governors will face severe pressure to reopen. However, the new daily cases will be a long tail on the chart and that gives FED the political cover to QE, and on top of that, they are proposing to drop the policy to pre-emptively raise interest in prediction of inflation. I see an asset bubble brewing so I am very bullish right now, but I think all bubbles will end in the same way. They crash. But it does not make any sense to hold a bearish view right now at the initial stage of an asset bubble. You may argue that valuation looks insane but valuation never matters in an asset bubble. That's my windshield view of the market. Hope that helps. I lol’d. I believe new daily cases have likely peaked, but herd immunity? Unlikely. Please share this high level understanding you have. 28 days till August is over... And about the market—if you can time entry and exit in a bubble correctly, then good luck. One difference between us is that I think probabilistically, not in absolutes like you seem to...

Muscle, I’ll let you know when I can get one of those charts that looks into the future...oh, wait looking at a leading indicator like rise in U.S. cases and predicting that that’s where deaths (lagging indicator) are headed is exactly what I did in June...almost like “looking in the windshield”... Anyway, you can’t help bringing up the market in covid thread. If in your windshield there is going to “be a crash” with “high conviction” in the next 6 mo—I ask, are you looking through your own windshield? FYI I try to avoid making short term market predictions (6 mo is short), and certainly not high conviction ones, so your posts are quite peculiar to me, especially the fact that you predict a crash while I do not. I only lament over dead Americans and long term damage inflicted to the economy... The latest bankruptcies: Lord & Taylor CPK Tailored Brands Do you think all of these would have occurred if covid had not resurged in June in the U.S.? Are we Great Again or what?

Astronauts back on Earth. Remember, Elon launched this company and a little known electric car company with modest winnings from paypal on the order ~$100 million...According to some, this is a no big deal "insignificant" accomplishment, the first ever commercial manned mission to orbit + space station stay and back... Question is--if it's so easy, why couldn't Boeing do it? I've heard this guy's ventures compared to Madoff Investments, Enron, and Wirecard. I guess it's the most elaborate fraud of all time? LOL... Money quote: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-02/nasa-astronauts-poised-to-re-enter-atmosphere-on-spacex-dragon

I thought you said let's keep the discussion in here about covid, yet you keep bringing up "the market"? Anyway, hate to break it to you but since you said there is going to be "a crash" with "high confidence" in the next 6 mo, you would fall right in the bearish camp... :-X These graphs reflect what Dalal.Holdings is feeling (avg over 1,000 Americans dead per day and going in the wrong direction...):

Trump pathologically can't admit mistakes, and early on he needed to peddle some miracle cure to reassure people, so he jumped on the early positive news about HCQ but pushed it way way way farther than the evidence supported, so here we are. He can't really reverse on it, and his followers take their cues from him, rather than from the science. Heck, the feds bought 60 million doses, so even more incentives to say it works... Personally, I'll trust Fauci over Trump and his 'demon sperm' doctor on this topic. Meanwhile in New Zealand: It's ironic...the same individuals bashing this "demon sperm doctor" for her views are the same ones who say men can be women and men can give birth and have periods... BAHAHA! You got me! I literally burst out laughing! LOL! This thread has officially jumped the shark! OMG...My sides! BAHAHAHA

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians. I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested. But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail... Let's put it this way, if the US daily new cases do not drop to 20k or below by the end of August, I'll apologize in this thread. How about that? You don't need to do anything. You could post the reasons why you have such a high conviction with supporting data and that can be discussed on here, but repeatedly posting you have "high conviction" on covid dramatically falling due to herd immunity without supporting data/evidence as to why does not add much to the discussion. Covid improving dramatically next month is certainly within the realm of possibility. In NY it too dropped "dramatically" from April to May as far as new daily cases. However, NY's economy remained shut for that time for it to happen--it wasn't herd immunity, but unprecedented economic shutdown that turned the tide.

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians. I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested. But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail...

They must be. Otherwise they wouldn't be so frustrated right now. But I would prefer to confine this discussion to COVID only. When holding cash is considered flawed on a value site (after 11 year bull run, >30% S&P return in prior yr, near ATH): run. Good luck being fully invested on “high conviction” beliefs about imminent herd immunity. I thought you said there would be a market crash when it happened too??? Like I said, I maintain ample liquidity in times of wide uncertainty. I will not be overly concerned/frustrated if I underperform a rising market in 2020-2021. Certain investments like PTON, AKAM offset whatever I miss out on with my cash pile anyway. I’m more interested in outperforming a slumping market/economy than a surging one after the past 11 year bull market (downside protection, precautionary principle). If I’m frustrated about anything, it’s the long term (economic and other) damage covid mismanagement has inflicted on my country. Whatever your investment decision, that's your money. Please don't let your investment decisions infect the objective judgement of how the COVID situations progress from now on. It is pure data and science. In terms of the market, yes I think once the COVID situation is over, there will be a crash. Lol. Please don't accuse me of things that are not true. You repeatedly deny things related to covid and ask for "more graphs", but have nothing to say when the graph you ask for is posted. Not objective at all. If Covid will be over due to herd immunity in the next 30 days and "there will be a crash" with "high conviction", then holding cash seems to be a wise position to be in, so amusing to poke fun at cash holders... My investment decisions did not influence my statements back in March about exponential growth in the U.S. for covid and also did not influence my statements about rising deaths as a result of rising cases in June in the South/Southwest (deaths now at about 7,000 Americans per week). These things panned out, sorry to say. As far as my economic concerns, they come from the pandemic, not the other way around: covid --> long term economic impacts You say it's "pure data and science" yet we cannot even have a consensus about HCQ on a supposedly objective investment thread. And you cannot even acknowledge the multi $Trillion failure that is occurring here but not other G7 countries:

They must be. Otherwise they wouldn't be so frustrated right now. But I would prefer to confine this discussion to COVID only. When holding cash is considered flawed on a value site (after 11 year bull run, >30% S&P return in prior yr, near ATH): run. Good luck being fully invested on “high conviction” beliefs about imminent herd immunity. I thought you said there would be a market crash when it happened too??? Like I said, I maintain ample liquidity in times of wide uncertainty. I will not be overly concerned/frustrated if I underperform a rising market in 2020-2021. Certain investments like PTON, AKAM offset whatever I miss out on with my cash pile anyway. I’m more interested in outperforming a slumping market/economy than a surging one after the past 11 year bull market (downside protection, precautionary principle). If I’m frustrated about anything, it’s the long term (economic and other) damage covid mismanagement has inflicted on my country.

Followed you

The market view is low conviction. The view on the long term economic effects is much higher conviction. And the 2nd/3rd order economic effects caused by U.S. covid mismanagement (like dollar devaluation, rise in metals that is occurring) should be fair game for the thread. After all, you brought up the topic on discussing what happens to "the market" due to covid. So discussing currency devaluation (accelerated by covid mismanagement) by a President who stated "dollar is too strong" and the increasing odds of a new President (due to covid) coming in and raising corporate taxes to pay for the mess and more...all relevant. You can say Covid is pure science, but it has been botched by so many esp in the U.S. despite it being "science"--for example: just today we have our political Leader you miraculously absolve from all blame once again touting Hydroxychloroquine--"pure science" says otherwise, but "pure science" does not matter... Well, when I initially brought up the market's "forward looking", I merely meant to use that as the metaphor for forward looking mentality on COVID situation. I have high conviction that by the end of August, most states in the US will have achieved herd immunity and the daily new cases will be sharply lower than what we have now. Then school will reopen in September. Whether Hydroxychloroquine works or not, this prediction will not be affected. Definitely a bold prediction to have high conviction on. While I agree U.S. cases likely go down from here, herd immunity does not seem high probability in so short a time. You seem to be conjecturing about higher antibody/T cell immunity than estimated and I am not sure if there is enough data out there to tell us the prevalence of this type immunity out there approaching herd immunity levels... Furthermore, hospitalizations and mortality will lag a decline in cases and come off slowly. We’ll know in a month I guess.

The market view is low conviction. The view on the long term economic effects is much higher conviction. And the 2nd/3rd order economic effects caused by U.S. covid mismanagement (like dollar devaluation, rise in metals that is occurring) should be fair game for the thread. After all, you brought up the topic on discussing what happens to "the market" due to covid. So discussing currency devaluation (accelerated by covid mismanagement) by a President who stated "dollar is too strong" and the increasing odds of a new President (due to covid) coming in and raising corporate taxes to pay for the mess and more...all relevant. You can say Covid is pure science, but it has been botched by so many esp in the U.S. despite it being "science"--for example: just today we have our political Leader you miraculously absolve from all blame once again touting Hydroxychloroquine--"pure science" says otherwise, but "pure science" does not matter...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-28/goldman-warns-dollar-s-role-as-world-reserve-currency-is-at-risk?sref=i5h4hvUV Remember folks, there surely will be no negative long term consequences from this pandy/disaster Presidency! Stonks only go up! Covid is NBD, vaccine means V shaped recovery! Trust in Mr. Market as some brilliant folks on here advise! But hey, they're right--stonks will probably go up, just don't ask about real returns! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-02/trump-says-dollar-too-strong-swipes-at-fed-for-raising-rates A good chance he wins BIGLY with correcting the problem of a "too strong" dollar...so much winning!

You asked me about the market...so I answered. Funny you say I jump ahead when if the market were perfectly forward looking, it too would “jump ahead”. Fact is, market is at pre-covid levels so it is already pricing in a vaccine/cure with no long term economic effects in my view. I refrain from forming high convictions about situations with wide uncertainty/fat tails. Some folks believe they can form high conviction opinions about massive events like covid with multi order effects (and call out people like me as “not committing” even though the things I’ve committed to—like exp growth in March, delayed mortality from Southern spike in June—have panned out). If you think you can forecast this thing along with 2nd/3rd order effects with “high conviction” and derive an edge, then be my guest. Now it sure does look like U.S. daily cases may have peaked (with certain restrictions in place) though deaths in some places continue to rise—FL just reported a record number of daily deaths (consistent with being a lagging indicator as I’ve stated with regards to deaths). So yes, it certainly seems we may have seen the worst of it in the U.S. wrt rising cases...but if the market is truly “forward looking”, it already has accounted for that, no? The rise in U.S. cases has been declining for a couple of weeks now. I mean we are just going in circles if we are going to pontificate about “the market” anyway which is why it’s always fun to talk about “the market” but useless. On a general risk-reward basis though I don’t see what’s attractive in the broader market even in your high conviction scenario. To put it another way, if covid were gone today, what would we have to look forward to tomorrow to drive markets higher from their already all time high levels? I’m not sure what that would be (on a real return basis)... But since you are asking about what would happen today if the virus is gone.... I have a completely different thesis than anyone else here. I think the continued daily cases will drive the market up, and by the time the virus is gone, the market will crash. Again I have high conviction on this. :) But I don't want to elaborate on that because it is a pretty complex theory and this is a COVID thread and it took so much back and forth to even try to agree on some hard facts about COVID. I don't expect you or anyone to believe in my market theory but I think it'll be fun to keep it in mind and see if it works out that way. ;) I actually agree with you—the market slowly edges up as positive covid news comes out, but then when we get vaccine approval/reopen economy, crash as the “forward looking” market faces the harsh reality beyond covid: long term economic damage from covid, a potential Biden presidency with Dems at the helm ready to raise taxes and pay for all the costs of Corona mismanagement from Trump. Like a stock that rises in anticipation to an expectedly positive earnings report, but crashes when earnings are released even when it’s a beat. And even if the punchbowl can’t be taken away completely, there is no way fiscal and monetary stimulus can continue at current levels anything beyond short term... But then again, pontificating on markets while fun, is highly useless IMO and not reliable. I‘d rather spend time on individual names and have lots of liquidity in times of uncertainty. But if you have high conviction, would love to hear the reasoning behind that, though I remain skeptical of anyone who can forecast short term price movements in general.

You asked me about the market...so I answered. Funny you say I jump ahead when if the market were perfectly forward looking, it too would “jump ahead”. Fact is, market is at pre-covid levels so it is already pricing in a vaccine/cure with no long term economic effects in my view. I refrain from forming high convictions about situations with wide uncertainty/fat tails. Some folks believe they can form high conviction opinions about massive events like covid with multi order effects (and call out people like me as “not committing” even though the things I’ve committed to—like exp growth in March, delayed mortality from Southern spike in June—have panned out). If you think you can forecast this thing along with 2nd/3rd order effects with “high conviction” and derive an edge, then be my guest. Now it sure does look like U.S. daily cases may have peaked (with certain restrictions in place) though deaths in some places continue to rise—FL just reported a record number of daily deaths (consistent with being a lagging indicator as I’ve stated with regards to deaths). So yes, it certainly seems we may have seen the worst of it in the U.S. wrt rising cases...but if the market is truly “forward looking”, it already has accounted for that, no? The rise in U.S. cases has been declining for a couple of weeks now. I mean we are just going in circles if we are going to pontificate about “the market” anyway which is why it’s always fun to talk about “the market” but useless. On a general risk-reward basis though I don’t see what’s attractive in the broader market even in your high conviction scenario. To put it another way, if covid were gone today, what would we have to look forward to tomorrow to drive markets higher from their already all time high levels? I’m not sure what that would be (on a real return basis)...

Valuation doesn’t make a lot of difference when your thesis is right, but it sure makes a lot of difference when the thesis is wrong. To buy a little by at least when you like the business but consider the valuation stretched, with the intent to buy more if valuation becomes more favorable is a reasonable approach. It does goes counter the currently prevailing wisdom to never average down though. It's hard for me to add to MSFT when I have a cost base around $24. I was buying around 7-8x earnings back then. 35 seems like a kings ransom. I also owned some MSFT at $24 and sold at $40. That’s deep value investing.... Today’s MSFT equivalent could well be INTC, if management can turn it around. You would get the rising earnings and rising multiple Goldilocks. The rising multiple was responsible for half the returns with MSFT (eyeballing this roughly). I've added some INTC here. Intel has a lot going for it other than just being at the bleeding edge of Moore's law (but it should still work out a strategy of catching up there as well...).

You mean to tell me the guy who peddled HCQ and Azithro does not care about efficacy/safety and just wants to promote a false perception of a treatment for “no big deal” virus? You mean to tell me it is unlikely that people will trust whatever vaccine his son-in-law “warp speeds” into production? That people have no trust with this highly credible administration? Maybe when all this is done, he and Bolsonaro can launch a homeopathic med business. Just think of the infomercials... Given this is a stock forum, I would have to assume that we share the same assumption that we are forward looking not backward looking right? Of course the Republicans are wrong when they said it is just another flu. But that’s not important. What’s important is this: Do you think things will be a lot better 4-8 weeks from now or a lot worse? How about 6 months from now? The market is forward looking 6-12 months from now. You're asking the wrong question. The market is close to all time highs hit in Feb 2020 before covid was even a thing in the United States and after the S&P gained like 34% in 2019 to cap off an 11 y bull market... So...my question to you is...is the outlook vs Feb 2020 unchanged by events of this pandemic (March-Present)--are we all set to have the same bright future we were to have back in Feb 2020? What is the remaining risk-reward in broader equities? Buffett seems to have an opinion contrary to yours... Even if we have a vaccine with full rollout in 6 mo and covid goes to zero in January 2021, it's laughable to think that there will be no long term (economic) consequences from this whole fiasco that does not affect the economy and shareholder returns. Chapter 11s already being logged, massive government deficits, prolonged unemployment, political backlash against tech, likely political change causing corporate tax rates to jump from 22 to 28 to 35%?... These are the things I'm sorry to say that will pop the "V shaped" hope bubble at some point regardless of whatever happens with covid from here on out... Then again, if the dollar weakens enough as the metals market imply, the S&P may indeed go higher, just don't ask about real returns... Edit: The only way the "forward looking so stonks will go up" meme works is if: 1) The market was significantly undervalued in Feb 2020 (I doubt this) Or 2) There are no long term economic effects of covid that impact shareholders (I doubt this) Or 3) Pres Chump wins again and the next 4 years are all about pumping markets at all costs: more exploding gov't debt, currency devaluation, negative rates, USD loses reserve status, etc--don't ask about the state of the real economy though; (#3 is not beyond the realm of possibilities unlike #1 and #2 IMO)

You mean to tell me the guy who peddled HCQ and Azithro does not care about efficacy/safety and just wants to promote a false perception of a treatment for “no big deal” virus? You mean to tell me it is unlikely that people will trust whatever vaccine his son-in-law “warp speeds” into production? That people have no trust with this highly credible administration? Maybe when all this is done, he and Bolsonaro can launch a homeopathic med business. Just think of the infomercials...

"Hunches" and "I heard from my friend in..." is how such individuals form opinions. Not exactly robust. They would much rather believe it's less deadly now due to mutation than utilize Occam's Razor or look at the natural history of this virus throughout the globe. When these folks are shown actual charts with actual data on the other hand, they become skeptical and go "well yeah but this chart doesn't show x now does it?" And often times what they are looking for is a Google search away (and is usually meaningless anyway). But we should trust what their friend told them on this topic... Some people believe 15-25% prevalence confers herd immunity...this is contrary to basic epidemiology, but they are convinced we should trust their hunches anyway. After all, what could go wrong other than lots more people dying if they are wrong? Some people fail to understand the precautionary principle or the wisdom in "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure". We are now set to continue paying in pounds and pounds of cure (stimulus, monetary policy, other measures to keep the economy afloat, etc) due to such flawed thinking in the United States. Wish well to you and your family.

Fortunately the people who don't want to see this chart won't be able to read it: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-26/europe-s-economy-set-to-outpace-u-s-in-upending-of-past-roles Italy coming back on track! USA & Sweden stalling for some reason even now in July...just need more stimulus. But any fool could have seen this back in Feb! Totally no big deal guys. We are Great Again, after all!

Do you have any graphs of daily deaths? Sorry, that doesn't fit their narrative. You know what they say, however, "wait two weeks" I wonder what happened in late May and early June that could have been a catalyst for the increase?? +1 All you had to do was use Google! Good job! Look forward to comments a few weeks from now on how you were "right" on this as well. As I said, your motto should be: "Often wrong, never in doubt"! This is why I don't waste my time with these folks!

Wow, you saw this all since Feb! Revisionist much? All your wisest posts come at 3am. Lay off the bottle. Need to hear more about your assessment on people you call “savages” of a certain ethnicity. That’s where your true expertise is anyway. You must be some kind of sociologist. The virus has been no big deal, people like Greggie have been spot on, deaths are clearly not rising in USA. Trust this guy who can’t read graphs and distorts the arguments of others at 3am to soothe the fact that he’s been wrong all along (with his fav President, with the “no big deal virus”)...Dad, is that you? Daily deaths are clearly not going up in USA! Please do not use Google to look it up in 2 seconds! Greggie showing how right on the money he is once again!

Yeah—despite this President and his party’s best efforts, most Americans are not buying what he’s selling on how the virus is “no big deal”. The chump caved and wore a mask because he realized this. That’s why the turnout for his OK rally was low. Don’t be surprised when most Americans also do not trust the vaccine his son-in-law rushes into production...