Dalal.Holdings

Now compare USA to other countries and look at normalized deaths...

... covid one-third death rate of flu in Texas. so hard to understand? Saw that Texas has tragically passed 11,000 covid deaths. Reminded me of this b.s. that you and Abby were spreading a month ago. TX deaths now about 2% of confirmed cases with widespread testing. Abby’s “analysis” had glaring flaws that are apparent after taking a 2 second look (derp dividing by #tests tells you nothing), but that won’t filter it out from being posted on CoBF!

Lol...

For some reason USA continues to be exception to everywhere else and folks want to believe it’s “not fair” to compare to just about every other country...it never spread much from northern Italy (Lombardy) to southern Italy nor did it spread much outside of Wuhan to rest of China. Almost like when certain countries had certain regions hit, they strapped down and got through it without significant spread to other regions and now life is returning to some semblance of normal. Compare to USA... Almost like calling it a hoax, dragging your feet, not caring because “mostly blue states are hit anyway”, and politicizing mask wearing was a terrible, irrational way to approach the pandemic and needlessly dragged it on, allowed it to take hold in other areas, and led to many more deaths in the USA...

“Shocking” news from Lombardy too! https://www.velonews.com/news/road/il-lombardia-2020-remco-versus-the-rest/ It’s almost like if you manage the pandemic competently, you could return back to close to normal life even if you were among the hardest hit areas instead of holding out for mythical “herd immunity” or a rushed vaccine all the way in August 2020. Sorry, America!

You think that’s bad? I heard Chicago has more crime than a desert in Iraq.

The twitter posts reference compare a capital and most populous city in all of Scandinavia (Stockholm) to the average for all of NY State, much of which is very rural and sparsely populated. New Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland and Delaware all rank as more densely populated that NY State. This particular brand of false equivalency has been brought up before in this thread and seems to be a typical tactic for those who aren't really searching for the truth, but are pushing a political agenda. So you might want to be on the look out for it before. Stockholm and in fact all of Scandanavia are likely on average more homogeneous, and better educated than the USA. Plus they as a region have done very well at remaining cohesive by fighting disinformation and fake news, in fact I suspect these tweets would find a less receptive audience there than in the USA. Here is at least one relevant article regarding Finland, but there are many I could have chosen instead including more academic articles relevant to Sweden: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/28/fact-from-fiction-finlands-new-lessons-in-combating-fake-news The real secret to Stockholm is likely education level, cohesiveness, and a pro-social culture. With a conscientious population, there is less need to threaten or cajole, especially if they see it as personal interests aligning with self-interest, which should be the case all around the world. Evidence that they acted individually without national mandate can be seen in the data indicating a decline in mobility in Sweden which indicates they achieved similar or better social distancing without dictates. As I have been saying since February, it's a "complex, adaptive system". Human beings have agency and that complicates policy decisions and analysis. Stockholm syndrome could be useful to study for anyone who feels they are repeatedly fall prey to bad information: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome LOL, call em out!

I shit on US? Oh no, brother, you have completely misunderstood. I am here in the hope that the glorious rays of wisdom of The Greatest President Trumph and his disciples could delighten us all. A single word of this genius and the country will stand still in amazement and awe as you surely do. How could I miss the opportunity to be present in such momentous times and places and hear from such devoted followers of the Most Beautiful Leader? All Hail El Presidente! Atta boy! You’ve finally seen the light like the evangelicals! All hail Saint Donald!

To summarize: March/April Orthopa: "Contact tracing is a waste of time! Everyone's already infected." (There are single digit deaths in America.) New Zealand/Taiwan/S.Korea/British Columbia: Do lots of testing and contact tracing America: Minimal tests Trump: "There's no problem (and if there were, it would be a Blue State problem, so that's actually a good thing!)" August New Zealand/Taiwan/S.Korea/British Columbia: The virus has been mostly contained. A tiny number of people have died. America: Millions infected. 200,000 people die. Trump: "We should do less testing. That's what I diagnose to be the main problem here." Orthopa: "There's too many people infected! Contact tracing is impossible, because while almost every other country has used it successfully, America hasn't! And Canadians are paranoid scared bitches! And asymptomatic people can pass on the virus! So there's no reason to test." RichardGibbons: "Should I say that infectious asymptomatic people might suggest one should do more testing, not less? … … Nah." Orthopa: "Dick." Please stop holding orthopa accountable for all the claims he’s made on here that were patently false! Where’s his savior Gregmal to come to the rescue and claim instead the opposite—that he was right all along??? Up is down. 2 + 2 = 7.

Hold on there just a minute. You make accusations of cherry picking the data then you do exactly that. Instead of comparing population density of the U.S., you use NYC. And you do that because the comparison between the two countries doesn’t support your argument. NZ population density: 15 people /sqK US population density: 36 people /sqK NOT 38,424 / sqK Pretty dishonest trying to compare the country to NYC. How about sticking to the facts for a change. Your right, my fault. The US is extremely homogeneous and no way the population density of NYC contributed in a negative fashion to death counts, GDP loss, and the spread of the virus through out the country. Thanks!!! This is a hilarious interaction. Orthopa: "I'll spin some numbers while simultaneously accusing someone else of spinning!" <Gregmal predictably validates the approach by accusing some nebulous left of spin> Orthopa: "Haha! I'm brilliant! Nobody realizes what I did!" cwericb: "Umm, dude, you know you're basically comparing a country to a city? Can you at least pretend to honestly analyse the situation?" Orthopa: "Darn.... Umm, can't admit fault, gotta go on the offence! Well, um, New York City has lots of people which is bad in a pandemic, and that's completely the point that I was trying to make in my other post! And you're just stupid for not seeing it, and deserve lots of abuse!" Bravo. The thread is now more entertaining than informative. "NYC was so botched due to failed leadership as evidenced by huge number of cases"...but at the same time: "the only reason NZ has low cases because it has such low pop density!" (don't tell these folks about the densities in TX/FL vs NY/NJ...) "NY covid deaths are so high and show how badly libs failed" ...but at the same time: "the NY covid deaths were not real, but faked on the death certificates" Dude. Making two contradictory wrong claims at the same time is a sign of truly stable genius. Trump is proud of his children. Jurgis, question for you and other Europeans who constantly shit on the US. You live in the US right? Why? If this place is such a shithole why dont you head on back to Eastern Europe? Why are you here exactly, work, love, forced? Criticizing the President is "shitting on America"? Wonder why so many R's stuck around in the U.S. from 2008 to 2016 then... Oh, I forgot the Golden Rule: D in the WH: Criticizing POTUS = "patriotic" R in the WH: Criticizing POTUS = "un-American"

Truth. Let’s see if we get four more years of this, we will surely reach new, great heights!

Hold on there just a minute. You make accusations of cherry picking the data then you do exactly that. Instead of comparing population density of the U.S., you use NYC. And you do that because the comparison between the two countries doesn’t support your argument. NZ population density: 15 people /sqK US population density: 36 people /sqK NOT 38,424 / sqK Pretty dishonest trying to compare the country to NYC. How about sticking to the facts for a change. Your right, my fault. The US is extremely homogeneous and no way the population density of NYC contributed in a negative fashion to death counts, GDP loss, and the spread of the virus through out the country. Thanks!!! This is a hilarious interaction. Orthopa: "I'll spin some numbers while simultaneously accusing someone else of spinning!" <Gregmal predictably validates the approach by accusing some nebulous left of spin> Orthopa: "Haha! I'm brilliant! Nobody realizes what I did!" cwericb: "Umm, dude, you know you're basically comparing a country to a city? Can you at least pretend to honestly analyse the situation?" Orthopa: "Darn.... Umm, can't admit fault, gotta go on the offence! Well, um, New York City has lots of people which is bad in a pandemic, and that's completely the point that I was trying to make in my other post! And you're just stupid for not seeing it, and deserve lots of abuse!" Bravo. The thread is now more entertaining than informative. "NYC was so botched due to failed leadership as evidenced by huge number of cases"...but at the same time: "the only reason NZ has low cases because it has such low pop density!" (don't tell these folks about the densities in TX/FL vs NY/NJ...) "NY covid deaths are so high and show how badly libs failed" ...but at the same time: "the NY covid deaths were not real, but faked on the death certificates"

Truly a gem this clown is! Makes me LOL every time! Always posts about me wherever I go and can’t help but follow me even when I am not having a conversation with the clown or posting about a stock he is invested in. I get to live rent free in his head (not like the real estate is in high demand anyway!). As they say: “Have enemies; but make sure that they think about you much, much more than you think about them.” BAHAHAHAH

I never said you can’t know 2nd or 3rd order effects, it’s when there’s wide uncertainty that you ought to be conservative, that is all. And yes, it’s much easier to say the economic damage had been done when GDP change and unemployment are where they are and congress/fed are intervening to the extent they are...the damage is done. And you’re the one confident about a market crash, I have no idea where the market goes. In fact, it may go much higher esp if Trump is reelected (just don’t ask about USD or real returns). Geeze...... I don't know what else to say man..... Do you actually understand what I said above? "In the early stage of an asset bubble, you want to get in aggressively." ::) Like I said—if you can time short term market movements and know how long a bubble has to go before it pops with “high confidence”, you don’t need help from anyone on this forum. I admit that I myself do not know how to time bubbles or short term market movements. We’ll see you on the Forbes Billionaire list soon enough if you turn out to be in possession of this unique talent. Good luck!

I never said you can’t know 2nd or 3rd order effects, it’s when there’s wide uncertainty that you ought to be conservative, that is all. And yes, it’s much easier to say the economic damage had been done when GDP change and unemployment are where they are and congress/fed are intervening to the extent they are...the damage is done. And you’re the one confident about a market crash, I have no idea where the market goes. In fact, it may go much higher esp if Trump is reelected (just don’t ask about USD or real returns). You may be right about your “educated guesses”, but my estimate of the probability you are right is much lower than yours. After all, you need to test your hypothesis with real world data—it’s easy to come up with a guess, but you have to test it repeatedly. You seem to have very high confidence in certain things which don’t make much sense to me...like the anecdotal reports of a friend in the ER in SD with regards to how covid deaths in NY were tabulated...this is not a robust way to learn from the world and test your hypotheses. You seem to put large weight on an anecdote but almost no weight on real data—for example on excess deaths in NY which samwise is alluding to—excess deaths were much higher vs past years in NY/NJ/etc despite lockdowns, drop in auto accidents (just ask insurers), drop in people getting hit by cars due to lock downs, drop in crime during April-May, etc. So where did those excess deaths come from? Are they fabricated death certificates as samwise jokes (zombies)? Those who jump to quickly believe theories on gunshots being labeled as covid deaths tells me all I need to know about the robustness of their ability to interpret real world data. I’ve noted a stark change in the quality of discussion/data analysis on this thread and many objective folks have stopped posting altogether, so I will follow suit as it’s a waste of my time. Carry on with your theories about gunshots being labeled as covid deaths as apparently docs who were on front lines are less trustworthy than our POTUS to many folks which only validates how such people have obtained power throughout history...meanwhile, Fauci will continue to receive threats... Carry on! Edit—like I said, I use real world data to test hypotheses—I’ll leave it to you to figure out what this data says about your hypothesis of NY docs labeling gunshots and unrelated deaths as covid deaths: So do you trust your friend in the ER in SD or do you trust this chart? Good luck!

It’s easy to deceive some people it seems. He also tried to brush aside that deaths are going up again by saying “they’re not as high as they were”. My AMZN stock is below its all time high, must be a terrible performer! His antics clearly work well on some people. After all, if you are willing to believe NY docs put covid as death cause on gunshot patients, Trump’s antics will work very well on you...It’s a self selective group that will lead us to our doom.

Can you expand on how deaths are being covered up? It's my understanding that individual States are responsible for reporting deaths to the CDC. We live in alternative world these days. ::) What I heard from a friend who is a San Diego ER doctor said his friend is an ER doctor in NY and that they were forced to write death cause to be COVID, for pretty much any death, even including gun shot death. The death number is inflated so the NY state can get more federal funding for this. I am not talking about cause of death, I am talking about number of deaths (used to determine excess mortality statistics which in my opinion are the best indicator of COVID's impact.) Is there any evidence of manipulation in the absolute number of all-cause deaths being reported, is my question. I responded to your post. In the Axios interview, Trump attempts to hide the fact that U.S. covid deaths as percent of population is an outlier compared to other countries by deflecting to irrelevant stats and data (similar to what goes on here). The Axios interviewer was not having it unfortunately for him. The clip:

Trust doctors who risked their lives and worked their asses off in the Trenches in NY hospitals? Nah, they’d rather trust this guy: Lemmings!

LOL! Oh boy the brilliant minds of CoBF now want to weigh in on conspiracy theories of gunshots being labeled as covid deaths in NY “from my friend in the ER in San Diego” Often wrong, never in doubt! BAHHAAHAH

Can you expand on how deaths are being covered up? It's my understanding that individual States are responsible for reporting deaths to the CDC. Here is the specific clip. He is misleading and trying to cover up on the significance of U.S. deaths as proportion of population compared to other countries. Keep in mind that this is the sitting President of the United States (I know, it’s hard). This interview will be in the national archives some day. Muscle, sorry but that conspiracy theory about gunshot deaths being labeled as covid deaths in NY is dangerous hogwash. You can look at excess deaths too to see more people are dying y-o-y. I’m not going to waste more time addressing nonsense conspiracy theories...

Highly revealing interview of the guy leading America who grossly mismanaged the pandemic and continues to exhibit denial and mislead about its significance all the way in August 2020. His ability to cover up the deaths as percent of population is staggering... This one will be shown in history classes of the future where kids will wonder wtf his supporters were thinking... https://www.axios.com/full-axios-hbo-interview-donald-trump-cd5a67e1-6ba1-46c8-bb3d-8717ab9f3cc5.html

If by "death rate" you mean [confirmed cases]/deaths, you certainly seem to be right based on the data we have already. Cases also appear to be inflecting down in FL, AZ and TX. So, I'm very curious what exactly you mean by "herd immunity" and why you think we'll have it by the end of the August. Do you think the NYC already has it? I already explained in prior posts. NYC already had 24% people antibody positive in early April, so probably 40% now. Also research shows likelihood of 40-60% of entire global population who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell can already fight COVID. So we are easily at 80% immunity in NYC. The proof is the 10k daily cases in March but no second spike in July. Now Texas and FL, with similar population size, have experienced what NY experienced in March, so in four weeks, the new daily cases should be sharply lower. I don't want to keep explaining things over and over. People who believe it will find evidence that confirms their view, and people who disbelieve it will also find evidence that confirms their view. My high conviction prediction is that by the end of August, the COVID situation is dramatically better. Then the Democrats will face tremendous pressure to reopen. Then Trump wins again in November. And to Dalal holdings, my prediction of the crash depends on many things and 6 month time line is just a tentative one. I have to revisit it later. I have high conviction that we are in the early stage of an asset bubble and I have high conviction that this bubble will burst. I have low conviction for the 6 month timeline. But as it approaches, I'll see it more clearly at that time. It is simply not a good idea to put your words into my month and say, yeah you agree with me and that the market will crash in 30 days and COVID will be gone in 30 days. I never said that. Again, I will push back on your thesis that herd immunity is developing muscleman. The NY serosurveys were of people out and about and willing to get serosurvey testing done, not a random sample IMHO. Secondly, if pre-existing immunity were to play a large role, those who have lived longer, or been more exposed like those in nursing homes or healthcare work, would do better. But those are the populations heavily impacted in this first wave. Also, simply having T cell reactivity does not prove anything; again the elderly are dying in larger numbers and they would be the most likely to have pre-existing cross reactive immunity. On the contrary, young children who have never been exposed are doing relatively well. I acknowledge you have repeated your conviction, but the purpose of being on a message board at least for me is to be open to contrary views and clarify my thinking. There is an important distinction between cases going down due to control measures of social distancing (which need to be maintained until herd immunity develops) and true herd immunity (where life and business can resume as usual). Beyond the theoretical disconfirmation, your thesis has also not played out in any country so far. Places that reopen without proper social distancing are having recurrence of infections rather than displaying herd immunity. Also, since you have been following this in China, can you offer any reasoning why the virus did not spread as much within China outside Hubei province as in the rest of the world? I've been curious about that. Is it just fake data or is there more? How has their social distancing evolved now? Pretty much why precaution is useful when facing so many unknowns. That’s why I question the level of conviction of muscleman—too much uncertainty to be so confident. The downside if you pursue this strategy and you are wrong is that many more people die, the pandemic is prolonged, and the economy suffers even more. And that’s my critique with the U.S. leadership of this...overconfidence in the face of uncertainty leading to larger in magnitude and longer duration of pandemic in the U.S... Even some of these nature articles state that T cell immunity may not be beneficial and it’s too soon to draw conclusions... Another way to look at it—if you were considering investing in a company with questionable management with questionable, highly competitive industry that is in turnaround mode, would you demand a large margin of safety or small?

For the record, I am not saying that what you are saying is definitely not going to come to pass--I believe there is a chance you are right and the probability is not zero, but just not that high and with wide confidence interval (on if we can in fact extrapolate from small studies to population and in fact there is cross immunity from other coronaviruses and if we have hit the 60-80% infected/immune nationwide). What I am questioning is the level of confidence/conviction you have for a complex, nonlinear multi-ordered process (immune system dynamics, population dynamics, etc etc). In other words, I think you are discounting the probability that you are wrong. The precautionary principle to me means it is better to be conservative when facing uncertainty instead of proceeding with "high conviction" about anything. In other words, having a large margin of safety when buying a stock...or wearing a seatbelt even if it's just a short neighborhood drive...or not being fully invested even if you are sure the bubble has a few more months/weeks to go... I hope the scenario of early herd immunity does pan out. Though I am afraid even if it does, the economic damage is done for the U.S. and we have a huge number of people who have suffered (needlessly IMO)...

If by "death rate" you mean [confirmed cases]/deaths, you certainly seem to be right based on the data we have already. Cases also appear to be inflecting down in FL, AZ and TX. So, I'm very curious what exactly you mean by "herd immunity" and why you think we'll have it by the end of the August. Do you think the NYC already has it? I already explained in prior posts. NYC already had 24% people antibody positive in early April, so probably 40% now. Also research shows likelihood of 40-60% of entire global population who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell can already fight COVID. So we are easily at 80% immunity in NYC. The proof is the 10k daily cases in March but no second spike in July. Now Texas and FL, with similar population size, have experienced what NY experienced in March, so in four weeks, the new daily cases should be sharply lower. I don't want to keep explaining things over and over. People who believe it will find evidence that confirms their view, and people who disbelieve it will also find evidence that confirms their view. My high conviction prediction is that by the end of August, the COVID situation is dramatically better. Then the Democrats will face tremendous pressure to reopen. Then Trump wins again in November. And to Dalal holdings, my prediction of the crash depends on many things and 6 month time line is just a tentative one. I have to revisit it later. I have high conviction that we are in the early stage of an asset bubble and I have high conviction that this bubble will burst. I have low conviction for the 6 month timeline. But as it approaches, I'll see it more clearly at that time. It is simply not a good idea to put your words into my month and say, yeah you agree with me and that the market will crash in 30 days and COVID will be gone in 30 days. I never said that. This is the info we needed from you—I believe you are inferring from the nature article on T cell reaction in unexposed patients? While certainly possible, I would not attach a high level of certainty to those results, certainly not extrapolating to the population level as you seem to do (N = 37) You have high certainty, but it’s a big leap... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z