Dalal.Holdings

Donald Trump has incredible credibility even before entering the WH. I would definitely buy a used car from him, let alone allowing his team to inject a rushed vaccine that happened to be ready 2 days before election day in me ! Totally credible, trustworthy guy who if you had a daughter, you’d be thrilled she married ! Or not. Might be TDS but in my neck of the woods not wanting Don as a son in law would be deemed common sense...Some of us can spot a con more easily than others I guess.

Injection will be great! Unfortunately side effects and whether it works or not will not be known until after you cast your ballot!

Vaccine coming...2 days before election...Because Phase III studies are for libtards! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-02/cdc-tells-states-to-get-ready-for-nov-1-vaccine-distribution Enjoy your MAGA injection!

Wise move! MCGA

You need to start seeing the bright side of things—this thread has been Made Great Again—just like America...enjoy!

Agree, great product. Why not keep it free after Beta and just IPO with a huge DAU count thereby escalating the valuation to stratospheric heights ? Everyone else is doing it...

Your charts are irrelevant. We've "reopened" and cases are going down (ignore that mobility/transit is way down, we're wearing masks, some of us are distancing, schools are closed, warm weather, etc etc), so that clearly means we have achieved herd immunity! We did it! Lol, good night!

"You fail to commit to anything" "LOL, he made a quick buck on RCL puts in March when RCL sold off > 50%, but think of the carrying costs!" "Lol, he still posts in TSLA thread even after selling out at $800 after buying at $200 last year", "LOL he still posts in PTON thread which is up over 100%, but the robintrack data clearly shows he's a Robinhooder!" "Covid was widespread in USA in January with more than hundreds of thousands of cases or more...wait by that I mean there were only a few cases here in January" "NYC has a huge mortality rate which shows the failure of Cuomo! But at the same time, they were gunshot deaths labeled as covid according to some guy in SD!" "When he said 'herd immunity', it doesn't matter because he was right about stonks going up!" Endless entertainment! Impeccable analysis! And: often wrong, never in doubt!

You can and you do! The last sentence says it all—easy to disprove just like everything else you post. Apparently in Feb I was “rooting for things to go lower” (which they kinda did in March) but then I also “don’t commit to anything”! Lol! Which is it? Having two contradictory beliefs in one’s head! My trades have ripped my face off apparently ! Apparently you can indeed make stuff up!! Often wrong, never in doubt!

And look how far you’ve come—now you spend much of your time on this forum following me around trying to one up me even if you’re completely wrong! “Herd immunity”!

LOL! Your finest work yet. Mods, Personal attacks like this must be defended on this forum or he’ll get upset that you are infringing on his conservatism! Mr. “I was such a cool jock in grade school and now I spend my time bragging about how cool i was in skool and I troll on an investment forum...how times have changed”. You do you! It wasn't a personal attack, I was trying to comfort you! Whats your address? I'll Fedex you some tissues and a care package, Dr. Dalal. MODS!!! HALP! Tell us all how cool you were in school though! Did your parents also tell you that you were the most handsome boy in skool? We need to know more!

LOL! Your finest work yet. Mods, personal attacks like this must be allowed on this forum or he’ll get butthurt that you are infringing on his conservative rights to insult people! Mr. “I was such a cool jock in grade school and now I spend all of my time on my computer bragging about how cool i once was in skool and I troll on an investment forum...how times have changed”. You do you!

There is only one definition of “herd immunity” and it is a simple mathematical calculation. Pretending that a decline in cases is due to your b.s. definition of herd immunity is wishful thinking. Herd immunity is calculated assuming the whole population is susceptible AND there are no other interventions. There is some population level immunity that is helping control cases in hard hit areas. But the low level of spread in places that haven’t been hard hit is pretty compelling evidence that partial immunity isn’t the sole or even predominant variable controlling spread. You do realize who you are talking to right? If anyone wants to know why the U.S. is in the state that it’s in, you’ll get lots of insight from some of the minds in this forum. This is the type of thinking that resembles our leaders who have overridden people like Fauci. Very happy to have them as fellow investors though!

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians. I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested. But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail... FWIW muscleman Thank you for apologizing about the 20k figure. Most people agreed a month ago that we had already peaked and cases would head downward. There is no sudden drop suggestive of herd immunity end of August. It’s a gradual decline. There is a clear epidemiological definition of herd immunity with a well defined threshold, we don’t need to debate that. FL and GA had double digit positivity rate last week (1/8 positive) which is not a good thing and shows herd immunity is not anywhere near at least according to an epidemiologist’s definition of the term.

How anyone can plausibly claim any country has reached "herd immunity" until we better understand seasonality is beyond me. Doesn't make sense to me. Neither do high confidence short term market predictions outside of a few rare scenarios. But what do I know. Maybe Graham was wrong and we can know with high confidence what kind of mood Mr. Market will be in tomorrow. About 1/8 people tested for covid in FL and TX were positive last week. Says all you need to know when it comes to "herd immunity" in these places. When you trust people who are wrong yet overconfident about a situation with more downside than upside, the results will not be pretty...

Wow, what a value investment site! We trade on “market momentum“ now and of course anyone who is right about where the market goes over a few weeks must have predicted it! Sure, his reasoning about herd immunity was wrong, but the S&P went up a little like he said—what are the odds of that happening? Just kidding, odds and probabilities are for nerds! What’s next, Technical Analysis posts? This just keeps getting better.

Clearly when he said "states like NY" here, he meant NYC! Oops:

PSA: YOU CAN NOT DERIVE THE HERD IMMUNITY THRESHOLD FROM EMPIRICAL OBSERVATIONS DURING UNPRECEDENTED NPI. Flu deaths in Australia are down 90% YoY. You can pretend that social distancing, hand washing, masks, school closures have no effect on transmissions of contagious respiratory viruses. But the evidence is overwhelming against your "opinion". Anyone who is using empirical observations to derive "herd immunity" should immediately be disregarded as a hack. BTW, for the "it's just the flu" crowd, the proper comparison is with flu deaths from March 2020 to March 2021. The burden of proof for herd immunity is very high. It is much easier to prove that herd immunity does not exist (all you need to see is a rise in cases beyond a certain threshold) than it is to prove herd immunity exists. Which is why it was so strange for muscleman to be so confident we'd have nationwide herd immunity by end of August. For example, Buffalo now shows that there is likely no statewide herd immunity in NY (even though muscleman claimed with high certainty that we'd have herd immunity nationwide in USA by end of August and then just revised that to a few states including NY).

LOL. Muscleman was "directionally" right! We have "herd immunity" by the end of August in the USA just like he said...wait not the USA but only in select states NY, GA, FL, ...wait, cases are up in Buffalo? I mean herd immunity in NYC, not NY state! Dur how did Dalal screw that up! And not GA of course, I was kidding about that one! And the positivity was > 10% in FL in the past week? Oh, ignore that claim about herd immunity in FL too--see, Dalal was wrong! Dur I just change the original arguments to make sure it looks like Dalal was wrong! And of course I predicted all of this bc I am Nostradamus!

Lol. Taleb is for nerds. Gambling is just entertainment. There is nothing worthwhile an investor could learn from Thorp. Only math geeks care about exponential growth, tail events, and probabilities! You keep doing you!

So much for that "herd immunity in NY" thesis: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-30/berlin-protest-turns-violent-u-s-cases-pick-up-virus-update Let me guess, when they said "herd immunity in NY", they just meant NYC... This is what happens when you get overconfident in a widely uncertain situation with large downside...now there's a risk this just continues on and on in the USA.

LOL. Love hearing from our modern Nostradamus--can't really predict the future, and rewrites the past to make it seem he was right all along. Can't trust our Nostradamus for a reliable report of the past nor the future, now that's special! Good thing we have folks like this in charge of our pandemic response in the USA--and with the results to show for it too!

Doubling down on broken analyses and mischaracterizing the opposing people's positions to make yourself feel better about repeatedly being wrong. A surefire recipe for a lifetime of investment success! Nothing in this forum surprises me anymore! "Often wrong, never in doubt!"

It's situations like these where Munger's inversion rule works like a charm. If these advantages existed for gamblers, the gains would have long ago been had, casinos bankrupted, and the advantage "arbitraged away"... Ed Thorp/Claude Shannon worked hard on developing methods for projecting the physics of the roulette ball for a reason (building the world's first wearable computer in the process)...if there were lower hanging fruit they would have grasped for those. The fact that they didn't tells you about the viability of Martingale, etc. So yeah, always invert. Here Thorp discusses his Roulette strategies and Martingale as well: http://www.edwardothorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/SystemsForRoulette_l.pdf

This from the guy who said this less than a mo ago: We've gone from the US having herd immunity to a select few states (supposedly)...it's ok, the only downside when you throw out precaution and make bold claims with an asymmetric situation like this is that more people will die... Honestly between this thread, endless Trump defense/false equivalence in the politics section, the Martingale gambling claims (and Pabrai's questionable claims to add to that), moving the goalposts by TSLAQ'ers, folks convinced that SpaceX is nothing impressive, SHLD/FNMA/VRX, etc etc, nothing on this forum surprises me anymore. On a general scale, I am happy such thinking exists among my fellow investors. It sucks in a democracy when such thinking exists among fellow citizens/leaders (especially when you have a virus that kills). On a personal scale, I hope you don't often become so confident in your abilities to predict the future, Muscleman and learn from your mistakes...but the first part of that is acknowledging you made a mistake in the first place.