Dalal.Holdings

Eric Schatzker is great--probably the best in the biz. His interviews with Nassim are quite good too. It takes skill for an interviewer to be able to tango with Taleb.

This guy is the anti-Buffett. Delayed gratification and modesty are foreign terms for him. Comparing himself to Buffett brings a whole level of irony and humor to his antics... Buffett has stood the test of time through various environments. Chamath has only thrived in a single environment (low inflation/low rate)... Place your bets.

Canary singing in a coal mine if I've ever heard one. This guy wasn't doing too hot a few years ago. Lucky for him, rates continued downward to where they are today. Too bad it won't last forever.

L3Harris Technologies Announces 20 Percent Quarterly Dividend Rate Increase and New $6 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210128006099/en/L3Harris-Technologies-Announces-20-Percent-Quarterly-Dividend-Rate-Increase-and-New-6-Billion-Share-Repurchase-Authorization

Thanks to this and "what is reasonably priced" thread. I went in on LHX due to relatively capex light business, relatively fatter margins, and IMO more versatile business. I agree with Spek that margins post merger may yield further upside in addition to organic growth.

I'll answer my own question: 2016: https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/palantir-defense-contracts-lobbyists-226969 2019: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/palantir-wins-competition-to-build-army-intelligence-system/2019/03/26/c6d62bf0-3927-11e9-aaae-69364b2ed137_story.html https://www.defensenews.com/land/2019/03/29/palantir-who-successfully-sued-the-army-just-won-a-major-army-contract/ Some similarities in my view with SpaceX vs incumbent defense contractors and Palantir vs the same group. The incumbents have the benefit of cozy, long established relationships with their customers. The new entrants have the advantage of a superior product in select cases. Probably best for some of the incumbent defense contractors to exit Palantir's space and stay where their advantages are (for now): military hardware.

I'm not very knowledgeable about Northrop's segments--is "federal IT and mission support business" in the same sphere as Palantir's business? I'm guessing as far as any overlap with Palantir, it's less IT and more of the mission support stuff...

Steve Jobs believed a fruit diet could cure his pancreatic cancer and put off having surgery from the thing that killed him...IQ is irrelevant. One can be a genius in their circle of competence and an idiot outside of it... Plenty of geniuses work at a lot of organizations. Many geniuses are lazy. Many are held back by an organization’s culture or management. The talent at SpaceX and Tesla are very intelligent, hungry, and given free reign to exercise their curiosity. Places like Boeing are where you go to have a safe career...

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/20/science/boeing-starliner-launch.html From the company that brought you the 737 Max... Clearly Elon is against some stiff competition here. The only thing these old school defense/space contractors are good at is bilking the government/taxpayers. At least they hire better lobbyists than engineers...

I think what SpaceX has done is exceptional. I also think BA and LMT can just sit back and wait to see how it's done and then step in and replicate with economies of scale without sinking few $Bs. It took Boeing over 20 months to fix mostly software problems in its 737 Max commercial airplane that killed many people. A product that was supposedly "production ready" years ago... I'm sure replicating rockets that land upright will be a cinch for them..."sit back and wait"...LOL...

True, I forgot about those assassins. Q-level conspiracy right here. Elon has lots of time to spare going after TSLAQ and SpaceXQ social media savants after all...

If what SpaceX has accomplished is so meaningless, why can’t mighty Boeing or Lockheed compete with them?

I learn the most from you, O Teacher!

That section will be gone soon apparently. Dumb to take part in for the most part, but as I've hinted: a good dumpster fire to occasionally glance at and learn how not to think and behave. After all, it's far better to learn from the mistakes of others rather than your own.

You're a clown. My portfolio is doing great. Trump will be out. I have zero interest in this or the garbage politics discussions on this website anymore. Carry on.

I guess he has not heard of Putin, Erdogan, Venezuela, Hungary, and Poland. ::) .... and now this thread can be moved to Politics section, kkthxok. Always great when you hear someone say “this time is different” and scoff at nonzero probability of tail risks...

If people do stupid things then the virus will spread. The more stupid the faster the spread. Not rocket science. But the REAL problem the US has right now is Trump has, in his usual style, thrown gasoline all over the efforts and communication from virus experts and health care professionals. There is no unified approach. The US is learning that having an arsonist in charge can be lethal. PS: mistakes will be made along the way. They need to be owned, with the learnings becoming part of future actions. But that is not possible under Trump because he refuses to admit he has made any errors; if fact, he ‘double downs’ on errors compounding them further. PS2: Europe has also messed up. The pressure to open the economy up/let families live normal lives is real. So rational politicians/people push the limits. How do you know when you have gone too far? Case counts spike. Then you go the other way. Just what was anticipated back in March in the Hammer and the Dance article. Trump is a marketing reality TV machine who doesn’t care much about details (unless it directly benefits himself). Insiders like Mattis and Kelly have corroborated this. That’s why he’ll say it’s a hoax, makes fun of masks, or “it will be gone by Easter” or “we are turning the corner”. Advertisers/marketers don’t like delivering bad news. 95% of the time if you have a leader like this, it’s not a huge deal because underlying staff/cabinet picks up the slack. When you have a once in a century event like a pandemic though, it’s a total disaster.

It's almost like cases, ICU admissions, and deaths don't occur at the same time... Not wasting further time on whether or not Covid is deadly or "like the Flu". It's the end of October 2020 and a waste of time to debate this. I will say that CFR has likely declined since Feb-Mar due to multiple factors. Regardless of whether you believe covid is real or not, the economic damage in a region will occur as cases rise because a lot of people do take it seriously from a psychological perspective. You can disagree with them and complain about it all you want, but you can't change the fact that economic activity will take a hit when the virus is out of control because these folks will reduce economic activity--with or without lockdowns. It happened in Sweden and it'll happen elsewhere. That's why to help the economy, the best thing you can do is to try and mimic the East Asian Countries/NZ and stop the spread. The worst thing you can do is encourage its spread and duration...

Well...here's the truth. It doesn't matter how rational you think you are on your take on the virus. People will react the way they want to react, there is no convincing them. People are conditioned to a deadlier virus that has become safer, yes. People in general are a lot more risk averse than those alive 100 years ago. And what are you going to be able to do about that? Will you be able to convince them to think differently? You can say they're irrational, but the goal here is to anticipate human behavior, not try to rationalize it. Can you explain some guy's loyalty to Coca Cola vs Pepsi? It's not rational but it has investing implications. Lockdown or staying open, it doesn't matter: the economy takes a large hit as long as the virus is circulating. Large segments of the population choose to restrict their own activity--whether you believe they are behaving rationally or not. Even if a few who don't care resume their normal activities, the economy takes a hit on many fronts because of those who choose not to. Sweden--which stayed open--had 8.6% GDP drop in Q2, its largest in 40 years. The best thing that can happen for the economy is you control the virus early, minimize case load & spread and that will allow the economy to function. The shorter the duration of the epidemic, the shorter the duration (and magnitude) of resulting economic damage. Having maskless political rallies and politicizing things like mask wearing or hoping "it will go away soon" is very counterproductive to achieving these goals... Otherwise--there are plenty of "rational" reasons for even less risky people to avoid the virus even if they may not die--spread to at risk relatives (many younger folks live with older folks and cannot isolate), egregious medical bills (do you know how much a night in the hospital or ICU costs in America?), litigious population (why a business owner may not want to reopen), etc Controlling the spread is the key. The Asian countries and NZ got it and now they get packed stadiums and economic activity. Sweden, USA and the rest don't. Europe had a nice summer I guess and there's a chance they control this again more swiftly than the U.S., but we'll have to see.

Quadrupling down on the “pretend it will go away” strategy...and spiking in the very states he is/has held maskless rallies (and Trump/his staff/Pence’s staff have all had it in the past 6 weeks...). Superspreader-in-chief! Are we Great Again or what? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-28/trump-says-midwest-heated-up-with-coronavirus-cases

Explain Sweden. Thanks. Sweden cases going up, economy in deep recession even with no lockdowns (even without lockdowns, consumption goes south if the virus is spreading). Asian countries and NZ seem to be doing well on both the pandemic and economic fronts though. Not much else to say.

Second wave for Europe. Third for America. Who knew shunning doctors/scientists and chanting “the virus will be gone soon” wouldn’t work in the face of a pandemic?

Chris Christie learns about asymmetry: https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-should-have-worn-a-mask-11603315968 A bit late learning & announcing this all the way in October...and after contracting covid, but oh well... Fortunately for him, his downside risk was mitigated thanks to being a well known public figure with access to the best healthcare you can get.

Wow, you sound like you know exactly wut you are doing--as always! Can you also calculate Black Scholes in your head? Maybe you can start LTCM 2. There is zero probability this could go wrong. You're on top of it Jersey Boy--Send Warren the memo and let him know he should margin up Berkshire! Well, everyone should do what works for them. Different ways to go about it. Buffett has his approach, I have mine. If you're good at shooting the basketball you want to take as many shots as possible and when you miss, who cares, just look for the next opportunity to shoot. If you miss enough you get pulled from the game. I'm financially independent in my mid 30s and you're padding the rainy day fund and hoping for a Biden bailout. Good luck. Being scared of everything always going wrong to the worst degree possible is a great investment strategy and surely you should be able to pay off the student loans and retire by 65 or so! Continue mischaracterizing my investment strategy and making sweeping assumptions about my financial status--what ever makes you feel smug and secure in your strategy. Yes, we are aware how cool you were in skool and how much of a success in life you are now, having posted repeatedly about it on an internet forum...

Wow, you sound like you know exactly wut you are doing--as always! Can you also calculate Black Scholes in your head? Maybe you can start LTCM 2. There is zero probability this could go wrong. You're on top of it Jersey Boy--Send Warren the memo and let him know he should margin up Berkshire!