flesh

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-year Whoa, 1966-1988. What year did the buff dog say he didn't understand the market anymore? 68? 69? This period is when he laid the seeds to go from multi m to multi b though. https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/ Looks like median home went from about 21k-55k from 68 to 80. I like the inflation adjusted bit, helpful. I found it interesting that my house will sell for about 50% more than the inflation adjusted peak in 2006ish. Time to sell it? I looked at all this a few months ago but Greg brought it up. Unfortunately, I don't know what this mean, maybe re was too low at the starting point? What the statistical name for it when you start your graph at the point in time that makes your point the best? I'd call it framing. It's like when the left touts income inequality, graph always starts about 1980 at the peak of equality due to a decade of inflation and high rates. Right before decades of lowering interest rates benefiting those with assets. There should be asterisks next to everything humans say.

I'll be traveling for next 2.5 months. Will need many audio books. Any reco's on free audible books? Those that cost are welcome as well. Listening for free to "As a man thinketh" which is surprisingly wise. Found some Thomas Sowell books for free as well. Will Durants the lessons of history was free and awesome. Thanks.

Second penfed ..... they are often the best for anything. Also my local cunions Macu and afcu can sometimes beat them.

Agree with most of above. I'll add that when things get frothy, I usually sell most holdings and sell 1-2 week puts on things I like at 10-30% annualized until there's prices I'm comfortable to get long. Comfortable with brk at 300 but not 350. It's pretty rare if your duration is 1.5 weeks avg on sold puts at 10% below current prices that you'll be put much if any. You can keep selling them on the way down at lower and lower strikes until you want to go long. Often on one rip day 1 week before expiration you can buy them back for nothing annualized and the next day sell some more 10% lower strike. Works for me as I look at the port daily so just throw in a couple trades in the morning in ten minutes every other day sorta thing. This is pretty much my only income though so Idc much about taxes. You've got to make a lot before your effective income tax rates hit the cap gains rates considering you can always wait and sell this or that next year in a big gain year to move taxes around. Plus half the port is iras. When stocks are absurdly cheap you can use margin and buy short term way ootm money puts to protect your tolerance level or a margin call whatever. Buy them 1-4 weeks at a time because if things are that cheap they usually rip and you can take some margin off. If brk at 270 and you margin it buy puts strike 220 or thereabouts short term. At 300+ maybe you take some margin off depending on how deep you are etc, then stop buying puts. Also I'll use leaps, only when asymetric though. Had 10% of the port in 2 year calls 3-2020 share price 175 strike on calls 220, made 250% that sorta thing selling at share price 270. Ofc buy small caps..... they get hammered more than large during down turns... so that's easy. Always been that way. It's all really pretty easy if you just do what works and don't try to be too smart about stuff. Be patient and do your own thing. Basically what everyone here is saying is take risk off during high values and go big when cheap, play your own game.

Wow, so many complex drinks. Never occurred to me lol.

I'm listing my house next week. 1.5% to selling realtor and 2.5% to buy side. If it sells for 75k higher than the best comp, it will have been a 200% gain on purchase price since 2014. I just can't have this much tied up in housing considering my typical returns in stocks. Where I'm at, the extra dough means I'm retired. I may buy again in the future or I may move to Spain in a year. I never liked working (excluding investing, that's fun ofc). It's always seemed like a waste of life to me. There was a point it was a confidence builder knowing that I'd proven myself and could accomplish things in various business environments. That period only last about a decade for me and became a given, therefore not challenging or interesting anymore. At 43 I'm looking to spend my time with family, rock climbing around the world, scuba diving, dirt biking, friends, reading, etc. My body won't be able to do these things at a level that's interesting to me more than maybe 10 more years if I'm lucky. I wish I could find something to do besides investing that interests me to make money.... I've been trying for a decade without success. I wish we were in a star trek world, I'd put time into that. I don't know what will happen to real estate prices..... but I know I can average 20% of better through cycles on stocks. If I could refi at 3% rate/20% equity and current values I probably would... however stock gains are not super useful with getting loans and the loan would be so big the income I'd have to prove would be quite high now. I'd have to work doing things I don't like to get that income for a couple more years=boring.

Thanks.

Awesome book. Listened on drive. It's so obvious that the fundamental problem is the concentration of power. How anyone can't see this, and that there are degrees of concentrations of power(govt is more concentrated/harder to reverse course than one business), is the reason it's so pathological and pervasive. Hard wired evidently. Damned heuristics misfiring in our modern world. Hayek does a great job of making this explicit and clear.

The 2020's will benefit from the baby boomers, the richest, largest generation to die thus far passing on their wealth. Myself and a half dozen close friends all stand to inherit 400k-2m this decade. In most cases it will be spent. In others, a greater % of it will be spent than the boomers who hold it now. This is a one time benefit creating a new delta for successive generations.

yes is it good for audio?

Hell ya! Nice one!

24% taxable, 36% non taxable, roughly equal account balances. Only about 70% invested throughout the year in non taxable and 50% in taxable on average so roic was higher. Last year was 70% ish, before that I'm not sure but I know before I moved all my accounts it was outpacing s and p 500 by 8% a year going back to 13' I didn't really do anything. Probably spent 5hrs/month. Mostly brk and a lil frfhf. Sold out of brk around 270 and then continued to sell puts on brk for the remainder of year. I think I got lazy after 2021. Can't escape the new paradigm everything is expensiveish feeling.

They are just votes voting how there told for awhile.

If your analysis is "this guy said or did something bad at some point therefore he's bad", you have no one left. Especially, those who tread on difficult ideas. In the age of cancel culture, total connectedness, twitter, mobs etc. Imagine the incredible stress Jordan went through doing a zillion interviews/live lectures/debates/podcasts/youtube videos/being hated/being loved/traveling all to the umpth degree for years while he's losing one job and his income is growing exponentially/starting many businesses. Perhaps you could say he took on to much, or you could say he rose to the challenge but flew too close to the sun. People fall apart. My bro watched his paragliding friend explode in front of his face falling 500 feet severing the bottom and top half of his body while he stared into my bro's eyes. My bro has been in/out of institutions and is now on Anti psychotic injectables, massive delusions big anger etc. You are all much closer to madness than you expect.

why stocks go up and down will do most of the accounting work a newbie needs

Rock climber for 25 years. Same climbing gym as our olympic silver medal Nathaniel Coleman.

Ketel 1 vodka, Rose and Grapefruit. Tasted great. My fav for about a year now. Least inflammation/feeling crappy of any alcohol for me. Makes a big diff if you're an athlete especially compared to wine/beer or other hard liquors, but could just by my make up.

After reading a couple dozen books including this one on let's say programmed behavior, it's amazing how little control I have over what I do except in very specific areas and only for moments of time. I've fought this notion for a decade... fighting against the nihilism that's resulted from this awakening. It took years but at this point it's clear that it doesn't change anything. It doesn't change the howness (read the master and his emissary another favorite) of life. Understanding this howness vs whatness has concluded in me truly understanding my circle of competence or let's say led to a step change function at least. Anyone who likes these sorts of books should read Kegan's, In over our heads and Mcgilchrist's Master and the emissary as companions.

They'll just raise the age a few years for the different brackets. Inevitable and should have been done already. When ss was initiated the average age of death was three years hence, now it's what 15-20? There will be a lot of broke people. My dad complains about his 7k/month railroad retirement, he only worked there for 22 years... from 27-49 years old lol wtf. After getting his one year MBA that cost 1200 which he paid for buy selling pots and pans door to door for one summer. In reponse to how easy he had it he'd probably complain about the theft of his retirement savings not being able to earn anything in money markets cd's savings etc. He won't invest in stocks.

Haha, I bought sports cars for a decade and after getting at 82 in a 40... I knew i had to quit.

Seems to me you don't have to be in the market consistently. If you're willing to go all in on small/mid caps when it tanks and use a small amount of leverage like 1.2/1 margin or the equivalent leaps on large caps you can get great returns. It took me 10 years to learn that. Suits me personally. I noticed most of my returns were centered post dip. If I had more cash and was more aggressive with it I could do just as well holding lots of cash most of the time. So, going big in dips is unusual and also holding forever and dollar cost averaging is rare. I think the former is more rare.

Just fyi, the tiguan is much larger inside than an x3, and the rear seat slides for/aft in the tiguan, ofc the x3 is better at everything else. The tiguan has really won me over though... much more german feeling than I thought you'd get at that price point. I have them in the garage. It's the first suv I've seen that didn't waste space. Also, the bronco does come with locking diff's if you get the sasquatch package.. it'll likely outdo a defender on the gnar. I wouldn't get it though... big bend package if I get it... sasquatch is 35 inch tires big bend 31.6... slightly bigger than stock tacoma... good enough. Def getting the twin turbo six though, had that motor in a f150 and it's a beast.

x3 has nearly same room as x5... way cheaper.. The kia telluride is very large inside. Tiguan is a great value with tons more room than other models with the same foot print plus the rear seat slides forward or back. I believe if you go back to a 2019 vw you get the 6 yr /72 k bumper to bumper, if its certified its 7 yr 84k. Got the lady a 19 last year w 11k miles certified. I really like the land rover discovery for in warranty... tons of room.. looks good.. great motor. Prob my next ride... that or the new bronco four door is the hard tops not squeaky.

baba ootm leaps, it's either asymmetric or not, right?

Remind me of the math here. I remember learning it when first studying autozone long ago. If 5% of share are repurchased what exactly happens to p/b/bvalue? Can't remember the denominator.