flesh

Just an fyi, I always appreciate greg's variant perspective. It's definitely recurring for ff at this point. Is it in the future? Your brk leap comp is curious. Thanks.

Tal not doing so well.

I'd add that segmenting the population into the orders of consciousness helped me as a investor. Top ten book for me.

I wasn't part of the dot com bubble, however I had just started a inside sales job just after the crash. Unfortunately for me, it was another ten years before I would get into stocks because all I heard was old people who went from 1m to 150k all day every day. I guess they were invested in nasdaq like stuff. Going along with the two tiered market and the "value-nirvana" period I'd add the obvious tid bit is that a large percentage of the market is our big tech companies which are durable, profitable, and still growing quite well juxtaposed to the junk in the dot com era. Also, a much greater percentage of revenue's come from over seas as a stabilizing factor. The whole world is much more market based. I have a hard time buying anything that's not a cinch though, recently I punted 1/3 of my net to a hedge fund so I don't have to be the one doing it. Sometimes I wonder if it's worth being in the market at all. If I can do 100% 1-2 times a decade during drawdowns while being invested only 20% of calendar days and enjoy life/produce income with the remaining time, why not? Mix in the odd cinch here and there, relax. Return on brain damage.

That's it.

Most dangerous game, roku channel

Anyone notice Ajit's hands shaking, especially towards the beginning? I wonder if it's a physical condition. If not, I'd say it's a good omen that he's invested enough in his performance and at his age/wealth (in the agm) that he displayed nervousness.

Having read many of these types of books, namely, those looking retrospectively at someone/something that worked well, they miss the salient point imo. The point that's missed, amongst the good and logical points, is simply that what happened was that the idea/person was doing something different than most of the people were at that time, not now. Related see Halo effect. It's not that what's being espoused doesn't work, it's that what tipped the scale was the originality.

The current qty of ads is okay by me... however please get rid of the tricky ads... those that aren't instantly obvious to close.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism#:~:text=Effective altruism encourages significant charitable donation.&text=GWWC was founded in 2009,of his income to charity. Also, see Sam Harris podcast. I'll at the ten percent level, which will increase as my wealth does. It's really no sweat. I could care less about anything beyond an upper middle class life. It's clear to me having lived below and above that in terms of spending... the sweet spot is quite low... very low if you design your life as such.

52% Personal, 68% retirement IRA's, retirement was more invested throughout. Short version, traded march-june mainly, no margin. Next, went all in brk, holding just a couple others as well, at 178 10% of which was OOM Calls which were subsequently sold for a quick 55%. Basically did nothing after brk, told my partner to let me know if the brk price went up or down 20% and forgot about stocks. Big winners, HCA at 65 ADS at 22 TSE at 20 Kbh at 12 kbe at 27 oln at 11 kkr at 18

Another great book I've read this year. Hmmm, basically he does a good job of demonstrating how what's required to succeed in all the things most care about caring about are over the heads of the general populace, % wise. He picks up where Piaget left of with the cross culturally dependable levels of meaning making. He breaks down 5 orders of consciousness or meaning making where all higher orders transcend and include the previous levels. He believes that only 25% IIRC of the USA populace are currently at the 4th order, which is what's required in the modern, W.E.I.R.D countries. Many examples are given, making it a relatively easy read. As you read about the levels.... some may be over you head. Seems to map onto the world pretty well for me.

Great book just finished.

I'm part owner in a company selling custom built websites. I regularly speak with Joe public about their finances. I speak with about 5-10 new people every day from around the country. Every third person I speak with has lost their job or been furloughed. Half of them have stopped paying some of their bills, credit cards go first. Many are seeking unemployment but are so broke the gap in income will hurt them badly. People are pulling all or some money out of retirement accounts. In general, those who needs support are confused as to what they will receive and when or how to apply. Many are only a month or two away from missing mortgage payments. I usually show people how to do balance transfers with credit cards to get 0% for 15 plus months, the credit card companies aren't approving new applications anymore, except for perfect credit. I haven't heard from anyone that credit limits are being reduced yet like in 09 however inactive cards are being cancelled en masse. Surprisingly, those working that are 60 plus years old think they will be going back to work by May. The leads we buy as a company are not available in the same quantity and the quality is lower. Generated online.

2022 calls on wfc, bk, bac. Some bac, bk, oln.

nc, tse, brk.b, bk Nc's ev/ebit or ebitda is 1.7-1.9 Tse at less than 3x/mkt cap normalized fcf. Big divvy and buyback. Lots of cash. Insiders buying at current price.

buying kbh today

I have done very little with stocks for a year now, busy with new biz. I had a hard money deal pay off last week, good timing. Yesterday the values compelled me to buy. 1/2 of net worth into mo, brk.b, tse, nc, ads, hca, kkr, bac, bk. Fun times, hoping for more volatility. HCA at 66? WTF. Why is fcau, fairfax, and home builders so cheap? Any thoughts on 2 plus year calls on brk vs cheap margin if things get more interesting?

Wow, thanks for that! Fucking brilliant! Critically missing is the cognitive dissonance, psychic, neuro-chemical pain Smith feels by being made to feel wrong, have reduced believability with others, et cetera. I always come back to the rat in the maze looking for cheese or Taleb's academic vs practitioner... bottom up versus top down et cetera.

They were -18% in 18' and around 21% in 17. They have more than 6 investors, much more. I'm sure this year it's not good. Allan is definitely dealing with his first serious dose of under performance. IMO, it's simply an effect of large AUM. I can't imagine the finagling required to move 1.2 b around versus 100m or less, which is where most of the out performance came from.

Basic economics, Thomas Sowell The master and his emissary genome deep simplicity against the gods

Star Trek Discovery, cbs all access.

The lesson is to figure out why you also have them. See what happens when you hold yourself to a high standard with regards to blocks.

I've never understood why guys with status/money do anything so risky. Aside from the ethical implications, which are clear, isn't it easy nowadays with the tinder's and online stuff to hook up easily? Last time I dated, a decade ago, it was easy, too easy, and I'm not making any claims on looks or skills here. Or is it about something else? IDK. Edit: Want to add that I'm not a believer in the "believe her" aka lack of due process movement. I don't claim to know what happened. Myself, and two good friends have had issues in the past. In Eric's case, she may have looked 20 years old, IDK. When I was 27, I had a great small company with about 20 employees. I had a half dozen female secretaries that all worked in the same room. My book keeper/payroll employee, a female, let me know one day that due to the lack of communication I had with the secretaries they weren't sure about their status with me. She asked me to simply stop by and ask them how they are doing intermittently. The next day I said hello to one on my way by and somehow we started talking about tv shows. I brought up Big Love, which we pretty new IIRC, and said jokingly something about how I *might* be able to handle two wives. I was married at the time. The conversation was very brief. I can honestly say I had -zero attraction to this woman. A couple weeks later, my book keeper LMK that all the other secretaries didn't like the "big love" secretary and she wasn't performing well. I said well go ahead and fire her... that was her responsibility anyway. She was fired. A month or so later I get a call from the state saying that the "big love" girl was claiming I sexually harassed her and that the company had discriminated against her because she was mentally handicapped. It was the first that anyone at the company had heard about some purported handicap and it was never disclosed to us. Someone from the state came and interviewed all the other females and apparently they didn't didn't have anything bad to say about me and the case was closed. I'm simply writing this because we really don't know what happened and the are often incentives/disincentives working in the background, hidden.

Sad year for me. First year of under performance -10%. Peak for year was plus 16%. I've had times mid year where I was under performing as poorly and that was when it would have been a great time to buy my portfolio. Either I'm more wrong than usual or I should have a great 2019.