flesh

What's the cause of death for Alex Pretti? By weighting in %'s 1. Allowing unmitigated illegal immigration, including thousands(ten's?, 100's? of criminals) 2. Massive media push to protest repeated daily for month's? 3. Left wing media rarely if ever saying how and what the proper forms of safe protest are and often pushing for more aggressive forms of protest/using hyperbole? 4. Improperly trained/radicalized ice agents? 5. Trump/ice leaders poor leadership leading to more aggressive Ice behavior? 6. Trump not calling off ICE altogether and ending the program? 7. Left wing politicians in left wing states not cooperating with ICE and often actively opposing them in various ways? Counterfactual, how many ICE deaths per arrest in cooperating states. 8. Collateral damage, some people die when law enforcement of any kind do their job. It's a numbers game. Namely, if you have 100k arrests x people will die by cops/ICE

1. Let in a zillion people without vetting. 2. Claim there's nothing you can do about it 3. Month's before reelection make a weak plan to solve illegal immigration that won't work. 4. lose election 5. new president all but eliminates illegal immigration in a couple months 6. get mad that .0001% of illegal immigrants deported were legal 7. get mad that the people doing it weren't perfect, not trained properly, when there existed no force to do the job beforehand, in other words it wouldn't be done without them leaving no alternative, IT WOULD not happen at all. 8. Tell everyone to protest and fight, massively infect group think a la Gustave la bon x 1000 every day for months 9. Don't ever tell anyone how to protest safely, nobody dying means no political wins 10. Give illegals safe spaces and money in various forms, incentivize them. 11. Hopefully win elections and give illegals paths to voting for democrats. Aside from all that, these things really are simple. If you want fewer people to die, all the left has to do is say loud and clear, stay 30 feet away from all ice officers while protesting, is this not wise? Why aren't they doing it? Why aren't they doing anything resembling it? Maybe my little brain is too small to understand. Is there some better idea I'm missing to deport millions of illegals in under 4 years. Personally, I don't care if they all are deported. I think it's reasonable to deport all criminals and quasi criminals, plus another million as deterrence, I'd like to see it in the news to some extent ongoing forever so that the rest of the world doesn't forget the message. I'd like to see indirect strategies implemented so that there's a slow trickle of deportations forever, by police, through govt paperwork, etc. Additionally, can we finally get a real bi partisan plan together to prevent this nonsense from happening in the future? If we don't, I wonder why.... The hitler stuff is just weird, I'm seeing more anti semitic noises from the left since gaza/israel than I've ever heard from the right. It's all over college campuses, meanwhile I hear a small insignificant minority on the right, like Nick Fuentes. I know Bill Maher and Sam Harris, Jews, have been harping on this forever. Sam is concerned about his two girls going to college and being safe when they come of age soon.

Here's some, i've been painting and replacing fixtures on a rental for a week, lot's of time to listen.

So bummed, woke up, saw 1625, kept putting in orders near the current bid and then it'd go up, went on for 10 minutes, no fills, finally got some filled at 1670, lame. Glad some of you guys were faster, it's hard to think after waking while taking a piss.

Anderson is so boringly biased. I've listened to 2/3 or all WEF available online, the above is so caricatured, it's childish. It's actually a good year to listen to the WEF, it's never been more balanced between typically left and right ideas, years ago it was just a circle jerk or left wing beliefs presented as truths. An example, a German lefty said "We've got to be able to say that it's not okay that some people are more likely to rape a 17 year old girl walking at night on the streets of Munich, we've got to be able to name the problem". There's a huge shift going on. This is a huge trend this year, those that have hated on trump for a decade have been unconsciously infected by some of his ideas popularized by him and now claimed as their own. A cultural shift has happened in the west. Psychologically its fascinating to see these unconscious mass changes. Gives me hope that things can change. Granted, most trump ideas haven't stuck but some of the ideas popularized by him have become base programming. Trump did mix up iceland and greenland 2 or 3 times. I often do it myself, because greenland is ice and iceland is green and they are both historically insignificant, not part of the ethereal milieu. IF he continues to do this in other cases, imo it'll add legitimacy to the idea of his degradation.

I was commenting on an unnecessary increase in federal jobs. It's not hard to have fantastic jobs numbers when you prolong a shut down of the economy and then open it up, it's expected. Moreover, if you oversee the largest stimulus in history it's going to seriously help. It's like running a company and going into massive debt to hire employees and reporting to stockholders your doing great, employees up and debts ramping massively, all's well. Is that bull shit? The counterfactual would be if he didn't open the economy back up, would the numbers have been nearly as high etc. ? Now, if you have a methodology that attempts to strip out reversion to the mean jobs numbers plus trendline growth, strips out massive stimulus, strips out above trend fed employee growth, I'd be happy to see it.

In the link you can see the massive ramp up in fed employees under Biden, clearly they can't all be necessary. Of course this ramp up made his job numbers look good. If spending is what you need, don't hire fed employees, lower taxes with the equivalent money, this allocation will compound at higher rates. In the near term, taxes have been lowered. Although I wouldn't have done that myself, but would've fired more fed employees. We're in a serious hole. In general, you guys are really mean to each other. I like to imagine I'm sitting next to a smart guy, as most of you are, having a conversation. If you wouldn't sit next to him, why post to him. If fighting words would end in a fight, maybe you wouldn't use them.

23.4% across all accounts. Only interesting thing is cumulatively I only owned stocks for 4 out of 12 months for the year. Earned the 4% on cash while owning nothing. Spent maybe 20 hours for the year doing anything related to stocks. Traded brk 3 x, frfhf 2x, joe 2x, qqq 1x. Maybe 5% of the port was leaps, 1x. Early april. On another note, my school teacher girlfriend from barcelona is up 149% in her first five years investing, in her accounts, I've never sold a single share. I find this interesting as this is how I would invest if I didn't have the dislike of extended holding periods. Getting this return for her was very easy. Also, this was without owning any tech until april of 25 which is now a 15% position. 2020, purchased brk 175, again around 205. 2021 purchased brk on a dip, can't remember price. 2022 purchased brk on a dip. price was 295 iirc, no more brk purchases. 2023 nothing, she was saving 2024 nothing, she was saving april 25, bought frfhf, joe, qqq early april. 3-5% position in frfhf and joe, 15% qqq. It's interesting to me it's this easy to do nearly 150% in 5 years by adding to conservative stuff on dips. Wouldn't it be nice if someone came into your life after you'd been saving in savings accounts for a decade and said hey do this, then you make 150% in five years on 95% of your net worth doing nothing, lol. c'est la vie. She still doesn't believe she'll end up with millions with basic compounding from here.

Maybe it's because I did my thing in sales/marketing, but it's clear to me that this is normal and has been going on forever. From a first principals perspective there never was any reason for anyone profit making organization in politics to be accurate, wholistic, unless by force, or because their audience/advertisers was 50/50 left right, which is nearly impossible for anything but moments of time. Plus, we have a psychological nature documented by Kahneman, evolutionary biology/psychology, lying with stats, priming conditioning, etc. In this context it wouldn't surprise me if whoever edited the video above, honestly thought they had pieced together the truth. That is, their current ability to be truthful confined by their ability to tolerate the associated cognitive dissonance. The only reason normies are waking up to this now is the proliferation of information on the internet, social media, AI chatbots. Scamming was very easy for most of the past. It's what we've done in sales and marketing since forever. It's what's been done by most anyone who got paid to do it in any area, until they couldn't.

I guess I'll be the crazy interpreter here.... Most of the bullet points are either nothing burgers or he may have info that we don't have (this has happened many times in the past). Also, this may seem weird to a bunch of analyst types crunching numbers for a living, but being exactly accurate with numbers that are generally not that important to you is not something most people do. Most people seek to be directionally correct with numbers. He often exaggerates/withholds pertinent info however this is typical of most and prototypical of politicians, folks just don't notice it when it's your side saying it. He is simply better at the political game than most politicians, very few have any scruples. For me, politicians speak 95% non truths and normies 50%. Outside of finance or similar, try practicing being total accurate with all numbers and presenting a perfectly clear picture in your normal life, no withholding of relevant info and you'll see people's eyes glaze over quickly, it's really a ineffective way to communicate with the masses. If you do it, I've tried, you'll quickly be seen as on the spectrum of this or that. Pointless. So, yes, mostly bullshit, par for the course, but by an expert bullshitter that the other bullshitters wish they could match.

I know analyst earnings estimates are often wonky, however I wonder why they are modeling such a large earnings decrease 2-3 years out? 95-130 usd earnings 2028-2029? Just wondering how they get there. Soft market, high cr, fixed rates drop?

Was the cost worth it? Allowing marginally more 79 year olds w/ 2.5 co morbidities live until 83 vs 80? vs 10 trillion debt, kids being undereducated, depression, suicides, drug od's, civil unrest, etc. does that enter into the calculation of which country/state had the better program? What would it have cost to focus directly on those most at risk and why wasn't this the obvious option? In the usa we had the italian data ahead of time.

What were the big 5 investments ericopoly made to make 80% for a decade? I know of bac.

Save more. Get a pre nup. Assume female nature isn’t much different than your male friends just bad in different ways that you need to understand. Everything is a belief and all beliefs are untrue, prove this statement fundamentally wrong.

Was up 3% now 1%, was 75% cash before last Thursday, now 35%. personally, I don’t care if stocks tank for awhile besides that it’s an opportunity if it helps long term. Also I’d love to see my house lose 1/3 of its value so other could afford one. I have two siblings that got locked out of housing because of our amazing economy that was clearly awesome before even though gdp would have been severely negative without egregious deficit spending. We don’t really know how much is what anyway, it all started with deepseek, the downturn, multiples were high as well, deficits were massive. Buff dog was raising massive cash.

Thought this would be useful to keep account of the madness. From grok3 just now. As of April 7, 2025, news reports indicate that President Trump has made headway with several countries regarding trade deficits and tariff rates, primarily in response to his aggressive tariff policies introduced earlier this month. Here’s a breakdown based on available information: 1. Argentina: Reports suggest Argentina has engaged in negotiations with the U.S., with some sources claiming a zero-tariff deal has been struck. This aligns with Trump’s strategy of using tariff threats to force concessions, though official confirmation remains pending. 2. Israel: Similar to Argentina, Israel is mentioned as one of the countries potentially securing a zero-tariff arrangement with the U.S. This is part of Trump’s broader push to reduce trade deficits, though specific details on the agreement are not fully verified in the news yet. 3. Thailand: News and posts on X indicate Thailand may also have negotiated a zero-tariff deal, reflecting Trump’s approach of softening terms after initial hardline stances. However, this is based on unverified claims and lacks detailed substantiation in major outlets. 4. India: India is reportedly making moves toward concessions, with discussions suggesting it might reduce tariffs on U.S. goods to avoid higher retaliatory tariffs. Trump’s team has highlighted India’s engagement as a success, though no final agreement has been widely confirmed. 5. Canada: Canada has shown signs of flexibility, with Trump demanding a balancing of trade deficits to avoid a 25% tariff on automobiles and parts. While Canada has filed a dispute with the World Trade Organization and imposed new duties on certain U.S. vehicles, negotiations are ongoing, indicating some headway. 6. Taiwan: Taiwan is cited in some analyses as engaging with the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts, though specifics are sparse. This suggests preliminary progress in addressing trade imbalances. 7. South Korea: There’s mention of South Korea pledging to adjust trade terms, potentially lowering tariffs on U.S. goods, as part of efforts to appease Trump’s demands and avoid escalated tariffs. 8. Mexico: Despite being covered under the USMCA trade pact, which initially offered a reprieve, Mexico is reportedly negotiating to “make nice” and address Trump’s trade deficit concerns, possibly through increased U.S. exports. Additionally, broader reports indicate that over 50 countries have reached out to negotiate following Trump’s tariff announcements, as noted by White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. This includes major players like Japan, where Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to lead talks, and Vietnam, which faces a steep 46% tariff but is showing willingness to adjust trade practices.

Is there a link to the Buffett/fortune article? I’d like to read it. Also, I see everyone is quite confident about their opinions. I’d love to see some predictions.. what will happen with trade gdp tariff rates between countries.. recessions etc and this way we can look back in in a few years and see what happened.

If your numbers are accurate when these countries call to negotiate USA will say, let’s figure out what you can buy from us and if we can get close, we will put you at 10%. There’s always more that could be bought, just how much more. Cancel your purchases from less important trade partners and replace with USA and or move some of your facilities here to compensate. Or, give us a discount on x. Simple in an occams razor way.

I haven’t read dinar as I’ve recently come back to the forum. I don’t read what he’s quoted as saying in this thread as a war monger etc. He sounds like an informed realist to me. OTOH I understand that being direct isn’t appreciated by most.

Thanks. I think we’ll see immediate negotiations (there have been for a month). Countries will bend some and not retaliate out of fomo. Best market in the world who doesn’t want in? If you retaliate and others don’t, your goods get replaced with theirs eventually. You can’t replace selling to the USA. Countries will agree to buy more from the USA, if the imbalance is small enough and the distortions are small enough the permanent tariff/tariff like level will fall around 10% on most countries. Strategic tariffs like steel will be higher. Some politicians will claim being tough for their constituents meanwhile they’ll negotiate and the USA will be the winner on balance. Many countries around the world are trying to figure out how to be the winner from the chaos right now, the ones who act tough with a bad hand will lose the most. Those that simply comply the fastest rationally will win. USA will be better off and will sell more goods/services and with lower tariffs and tariff like distortional costs from other countries inclusive of the benefit of tariff revenue. Just a prediction, not an ethical discourse.

Up 3%, bought a little amzn for the first time today. 70% cash. I think parsad and I invest similarly. Might have bought some 3 year leaps on Goog as well.

A book you might be interested in, in over our heads, breaks down the orders of consciousness that different folks progress to, Keegan calls it subject object theory, he was the dean of education at Harvard iirc, it’s a westernized version of ancient eastern principals. One of the core differences between the higher orders is whether or not you are had by x or you have x. Do you have maga or does maga have you? Do you have the emotion or does the emotion have you? Are your automatic thought and feelings in control? Are you controlled by them, do they impinge on your psyche throughout the day? Who are you? Are you that which notices/is aware of the thought and feelings or are you the thoughts and feelings? Can you objectify your attachments, if so, they will dissolve. Notice the way they manifest, did you choose the thoughts or do they appear automatically? If they appear automatically, why take them seriously.

Wonder if it’s that staple of high polyphenol olive oil consumed daily in large doses. I spend summers in Barcelona and it always amazes me. Also, if other countries use butter tallow etc, that’s a big contrast. Personally I have 3 tbsp a day of 800mg olive oil from Cali along with açaí powder 3x daily. ” Let’s dive into the ORAC (Oxygen Radical Absorbance Capacity) value of high-polyphenol olive oil and the regions where the olives that produce it are typically grown. ORAC Value of High-Polyphenol Olive Oil The ORAC value measures an antioxidant’s ability to neutralize free radicals, expressed in micromoles of Trolox equivalents (µmol TE) per 100 grams. For olive oil, this value varies widely depending on its polyphenol content, which is influenced by olive variety, harvest timing, and processing methods. High-polyphenol olive oils are defined as having at least 250 mg/kg of polyphenols, with some premium oils exceeding 1000 mg/kg or more. While there’s no universal ORAC standard for all olive oils (since testing isn’t mandatory and results depend on specific batches), studies provide some benchmarks. Extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) generally ranges from 300 to 2500 µmol TE/100g, with high-polyphenol varieties trending toward the upper end. For comparison: Regular EVOO (low to moderate polyphenols, ~50-200 mg/kg) might score around 300-700 µmol TE/100g. High-polyphenol EVOO (250-1000+ mg/kg) can reach 1000-2500 µmol TE/100g or higher, depending on the phenolic compounds like oleocanthal, oleacein, and hydroxytyrosol. A 2010 study on Mediterranean EVOOs found ORAC values averaging 1800 µmol TE/100g for oils with moderate polyphenol levels (~300 mg/kg). Oils with exceptional polyphenol counts—like those exceeding 1000 mg/kg (e.g., from Koroneiki or Coratina olives)—could push beyond 2500 µmol TE/100g, though exact figures require lab testing per batch. The antioxidant punch comes from polyphenols, which are more concentrated in early-harvest, unripe olives pressed into EVOO. Cooking or refining strips these away, so high-polyphenol oils are always extra virgin. Regions Where High-Polyphenol Olives Grow High-polyphenol olive oils come from specific cultivars and regions where climate, soil, and farming practices stress the trees just enough to boost polyphenol production without compromising yield. Here are the key regions and varieties: Greece (e.g., Crete, Peloponnese, Laconia) Variety: Koroneiki Why: This small, hardy olive dominates Greek production and is prized for its high polyphenol content (often 500-1000+ mg/kg). Crete’s rugged terrain and Mediterranean climate—hot, dry summers and mild winters—enhance phenolic compounds. Oils like those from Malavra or Laconia can hit 1500+ mg/kg in early harvests. ORAC Potential: Up to 2000-2500 µmol TE/100g in premium batches. Italy (e.g., Tuscany, Puglia, Lazio) Varieties: Coratina, Frantoio, Moraiolo Why: Coratina from Puglia is a standout, often exceeding 1000 mg/kg due to its thick skin and early harvesting in hilly, temperate zones. Tuscany’s Frantoio and Lazio’s Moraiolo also deliver robust oils (500-800 mg/kg) thanks to volcanic soils and cooler microclimates. ORAC Potential: 1500-2500 µmol TE/100g, especially from Coratina. Spain (e.g., Andalusia, Jaén) Variety: Picual Why: The most planted olive in Spain, Picual thrives in Jaén’s high-altitude groves (500+ meters), producing oils with 500-800 mg/kg polyphenols. The region’s dry summers and rocky soils stress the trees, boosting antioxidants. ORAC Potential: 1500-2000 µmol TE/100g in high-quality EVOOs. Morocco (e.g., Atlas Mountains) Variety: Picholine Marocaine Why: Grown in arid, high-elevation areas, these olives face heat and water stress, yielding oils with 600-1000 mg/kg polyphenols. Morocco’s desert-adjacent climate is often hyped (e.g., by brands like Morocco Gold), though evidence doesn’t consistently rank it above Mediterranean peers. ORAC Potential: 1200-2000 µmol TE/100g, depending on harvest. Other Notable Regions: Cyprus: Oils like Oleaphan (1600+ mg/kg) from local cultivars show exceptional polyphenol levels, aided by island microclimates. Turkey: Native varieties in temperate zones can hit 500-700 mg/kg, though less documented. California (e.g., McEvoy Ranch): Mission or Tuscan blends can reach 400-700 mg/kg, though rarely match Mediterranean extremes. Key Insights Climate Matters: Temperate Mediterranean climates (not deserts) with mild water stress—like rain-fed orchards in Greece or Spain—often outperform harsher desert conditions (e.g., Morocco) in polyphenol consistency. Desert olives ripen faster, potentially lowering phenolic content. Harvest Timing: Early harvests (October-November, when olives are green) maximize polyphenols across all regions. Variety is King: Koroneiki, Coratina, and Picual are the heavy hitters globally, regardless of exact locale. Bottom Line High-polyphenol olive oil’s ORAC value likely ranges from 1000-2500+ µmol TE/100g, with top-tier oils from Greece (Koroneiki), Italy (Coratina), and Spain (Picual) often leading the pack. Regions like Crete, Puglia, and Jaén are hotspots due to their ideal mix of cultivar, climate, and tradition. Morocco’s oils are strong contenders, but the “highest” claim is more marketing than science—polyphenol levels vary more by variety and process than geography alone. Want the best? Look for early-harvest EVOO from these regions with lab-verified polyphenol counts.

Your society is 91% homogenous. That group is generally productive and it’s similar for most of Scandinavia. They are similar culturally as well and less likely to game the welfare system and therefore it’s been relatively stable for now. It’s much easier to maintain a smaller culture, I’d give Utah as an example in USA. As close as you’ll get to the homogeneity levels of Scandinavia. However with your birth rate and it’s trend things are going to change. Meanwhile Mormons are still ensuring my real estate will do quite well. Anecdotally all of my Swedish ancestors (axelson) were quite successful wherever they went based on genealogy and listed professions.

An increase in Better jobs for men will increase the birthrate. Women are hypergamous. The existing citizenry are more productive as a group than a new batch of illegals. Long term, birth rate needs to go up economically. Demographics are important.