flesh

There's a huge difference to the person dying how they die. Getting shot and bleeding out in a few minutes vs what happens in martyrs is night and day. I'd kill myself and my son if the alternative was that one of us had to be a martyr. The reason they are martyred while somewhat interesting actually makes the whole idea/movie worse... because now the most evil imaginable... way beyond the holocaust and similar... has been presented with a seemingly interesting worthy reason to do it.

I highly recommend nobody watches this. There's scenes from this movie.... I saw it shortly after it's release to dvd renting it from blockbusters... that can't forget but I'd like to. It's truly shockingly evil. Something like Hostel is similar but because it's less seemingly real... it doesn't move you like this one. On the other hand if you want to test your ability to remain detached from your visceral innate responses... you could try it with this is front of your face. One of the problems with media like this is that I can't help but believe that these shows provide a recipe for some of the most deranged in the world and I really don't think they need any new ideas. I wish we could stop making templates for the most unimaginable evils. If you are still curious and thinking you'll try it, don't read anything about it just watch it. Knowing the twists beforehand ruins it. Dont read synopses or watch trailers.

Work another year or two and save like crazy, or three if necessary. Be in a position you can cover your bills and have your liquidity grow assuming moderate returns before you quit. It can be hard to go back to skilled work. Industry changes and you change. It's difficult to see what it took to get to a high paying job because some of it was probably luck that your not aware of. I was in a industry that paid me well for 10 years, took 5 years off, came back for 1.5 years with a difficult learning curve, left when a kid came.... now it's gone and there's nothing else I know how to do that pays six figures working 20 hours a week. The older you get the more difficult it is to grind it out. Do it now not later. Personally, I became a better investor incrementally as my psychology changed as a result of my portfolio growth. You should never be in a position where you need returns this year. You should be in a position of abundance ideally.

Fun for me = Rock climbing (since 97'), dirt biking/enduro (since 2016, best old man sport), reading, I haven't cried a single tear since a 9 year relationship ended in 2018 until last night reading Ordinary men. Also reading The handbook of evolutionary psychology david buss edited now, will take awhile. If you like Kahneman, taleb, pinker, the confines of what it means to be human etc take a look. Playing around with diet, bulletproof as of now/ sometimes keto. 2 Year old son is getting more and more fun, getting sick from him isn't.

I love all his books. I'm buying them all to read (used audible) so I can l have them in the inheritance collection for my son.

+10 personal +9 ira's. Sold puts on brk, owned a little frfhf. Bought some leaps/shares on brk twice around 270/share and sold quick.

Up 4% ytd. Have been 100% invested in either sold puts, shares, or leaps throughout. 12% margin for a few weeks twice. Zero margin now. All leaps sold. Max draw down was -9%. Down 1.5% from high. Still some pain though as I live off my gains and I haven't yet covered my costs for the year. Hoping for some raw sell offs but not for lasting economic damage lol.

It IS riskier with more debt as a % of gdp though, correct? There are many scenarios where the article your responding to could happen to varying degrees, correct? Inflation could come down faster than rates because rates can't always be zero or else there's less room to stimulate. I never have understood your argument, I mean if your above inputs remain constant I get it, but why would they remain constant? If inflation comes down rates will likely come down but how much? Afaik, anything is possible, even probable, and there are tipping points/non linearities embedded in everything, no? Isn't there already enough precedence? I just can't wrap my head around this MMT/MMT directional stuff, why add blow up risk to a game that's working so wonderfully? We can print/tax but there's limits/trade offs. Looking to understand not to battle. What I believe I know has been widdled down to almost nothing generally speaking.

Against the gods, plus one on taleb books and superforecasting and kahneman. Between all those you should be securely feeling insecure about whether your presumed knowledge is actually belief. Or if maybe everything is.

Prediction, when we lap the first 8+ inflation print, march 23'. The market will recover.... no later than that, maybe sooner.

It doesn't matter. Why? Because brk almost always sells at a lower multiple. You more frequently and more non correlatively have an opportunity to buy it when it is at a significantly lower multiple. That is the main difference. Therefore, they already "earn" more. This is "why" it's easy. As an aside, absent catastrophe at a major pillar, they are more predictable.

It sounds like the only thing you have high confidence in atm is brk, isn't brk 5-10 companies? Why not go all in on it? No honestly, what's the diff? Munger once talked about how if you're some guy in some town usa and you own the car dealership, the re brokerage, the gas station, the hotel whatever it was.... and they were all profitable, would you spend you time worrying about being diversified? Brk is a concentrated index with special properties, you can argue for via negativa or positiva but the principal is the same. It is actually this simple if you can accept that it can be this easy. It's probably fair to disclose that I've read all the books and all the books about all the recessions. It's also probably fair to frame this by considering that one of you asked for how to get over this fear.

You've got to get it through your head that the risk is actually greater by not investing than by investing. If you do the math... the only time you shouldn't be invested is when you can't find anything worth the DCF to invest in compared to everything else. There's always something to do. In 2019 I couldn't find any stocks I liked.... I told my neighbor if he ever wanted to sell his house I"d pay full value, no realtors fees, just get an appraisal. After a few months he said yes. It's literally right next door, easy peasy. It has two separate units with all amenities so they can be rented separately... with a 20% down payment and a 3% mortgage it cash flows 1500/month positive and ofc we've seen what happened with re prices since, but that was luck. If you like brk, why not go all in at 270 lately? If you're really scared buy some 220 puts at whatever expiration. Would it really be so bad if it went to 240 and your cost was 270? Isn't it worse if you don't buy it and it's at 350 1-2 years from now? Even if it went to 240 couldn't you sell some shares at a loss and buy some 2 year calls or use a little margin? Buy some puts at 200 when you swap at 240? There's always something to do. I recently went all in.... and I told my partner to let me know if brk is at 250 or 300 so that I don't have to look of feel anything. There's nothing for me to do for now. Now I'm back to more important things like reading great books and spending time with my kid/travelling/hobbies. We are so fortunate to have so many amazing companies to invest in intermittently at good prices it's ridiculous relative to history. The democratization of enterprise was one of the best innovations ever and you get to benefit! The bottom line is, if you own 5-10 plus companies in diff industries the only way you fail is if USA fails and if that happens, we're all fucked.

I didnt read the replies but i'd say yes it's obvious. Just take the paredo (pareto?) principle or 80/20 rule combined with the fact that we reward productivity with money. On average, the wealthier you are the more you contributed and therefore should be of more value to society. I doubt there's any other one metric that would be better to derive value for society in our society. There's probably some interesting aspects to the curve though. If you think of it in income deciles it's pretty obvious. If you slice it further it might get funky. From a societal benefit perspective, if you had to eliminate one decile of the population measuring income/wealth, which would you eliminate first/last? ofc there's exceptions blah blah. At a personal level, it's silly to think of yourself this way, luck, ovarian lottery, ego, pride. I've been in Spain for a month now and I guarantee there's all sorts of smarter/more productive people all around me who never come close to my financial standing. How many of us would have discovered stocks in a country where the ibex was top of mind? How many of us are aware of any investment that's returned what the ibex has returned in our life time?

"a single mother needs to make $150K per annum before she makes more money working rather than sitting on welfare" Elaborate, this is news/surprising to me.

If it's a problem, we will selectively allow more immigrants. Poor places get poorer from brain drain. It could get worse though considering 20% of gen z identifies are various genders that aren't as likely to produce offspring.

Nice, I usually (in my head) just take the stock port of 330 b divided by the s and p pe , currently 21.... gets you close to same number. Also either take some of the cash off mkt cap or add a few percent earnings for the cash. 100b=3b etc. At least comparatively this works as the sandp has little cash.

Yep, there's a half dozen. Listening to Marxism now.

Great book about the fed/Jerome Powell and what's happened since covid. I think its a Ted or Todd reco Takeaways, 1. Jerome will be more aggressive that I previously believed with inflation. 2. He believes compared to previous fed chairs that projecting strongly causes reflexivity to a great degree. He will move faster and project stronger that what we are accustomed to in both directions. Aside from that it's pretty interesting in general.

When someone with some balls/the emotionality of the moment allows a retrogressive analysis, all the deaths resulting from shut downs should be counted against those saved by shutting down. All excess suicides, drug od's, starvation (death and life years lost from malnutrition for however long), all medical procedures that weren't done, murders, plus what I'm not considering atm. These ramifications will be felt for years and for 5-10 years all the excess deaths worldwide (not just USA, major economies effect the world) should be counted. Also, some weight should be given to education lost/mental disorders etc. I've been saying since 3-2020 to deaf ears, I guarantee life years lost will be greater than those saved and perhaps even lives lost vs saved. When the Italian data came out and the average age of death was 78 with 2.5 comorbidities (numbers might not be exactly right) beginning of march 2020.... we should have done whatever it takes to protect the old/weak and nothing else. In this case I'm totally confident total deaths would have been reduced. I really hope someone does this work so we don't do it again.

Cool. Thanks broseph. Those are on audible or podcasts? Finished as a man thinketh, very good, 1903. People don't change.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-year Whoa, 1966-1988. What year did the buff dog say he didn't understand the market anymore? 68? 69? This period is when he laid the seeds to go from multi m to multi b though. https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/ Looks like median home went from about 21k-55k from 68 to 80. I like the inflation adjusted bit, helpful. I found it interesting that my house will sell for about 50% more than the inflation adjusted peak in 2006ish. Time to sell it? I looked at all this a few months ago but Greg brought it up. Unfortunately, I don't know what this mean, maybe re was too low at the starting point? What the statistical name for it when you start your graph at the point in time that makes your point the best? I'd call it framing. It's like when the left touts income inequality, graph always starts about 1980 at the peak of equality due to a decade of inflation and high rates. Right before decades of lowering interest rates benefiting those with assets. There should be asterisks next to everything humans say.

I'll be traveling for next 2.5 months. Will need many audio books. Any reco's on free audible books? Those that cost are welcome as well. Listening for free to "As a man thinketh" which is surprisingly wise. Found some Thomas Sowell books for free as well. Will Durants the lessons of history was free and awesome. Thanks.

Second penfed ..... they are often the best for anything. Also my local cunions Macu and afcu can sometimes beat them.

Agree with most of above. I'll add that when things get frothy, I usually sell most holdings and sell 1-2 week puts on things I like at 10-30% annualized until there's prices I'm comfortable to get long. Comfortable with brk at 300 but not 350. It's pretty rare if your duration is 1.5 weeks avg on sold puts at 10% below current prices that you'll be put much if any. You can keep selling them on the way down at lower and lower strikes until you want to go long. Often on one rip day 1 week before expiration you can buy them back for nothing annualized and the next day sell some more 10% lower strike. Works for me as I look at the port daily so just throw in a couple trades in the morning in ten minutes every other day sorta thing. This is pretty much my only income though so Idc much about taxes. You've got to make a lot before your effective income tax rates hit the cap gains rates considering you can always wait and sell this or that next year in a big gain year to move taxes around. Plus half the port is iras. When stocks are absurdly cheap you can use margin and buy short term way ootm money puts to protect your tolerance level or a margin call whatever. Buy them 1-4 weeks at a time because if things are that cheap they usually rip and you can take some margin off. If brk at 270 and you margin it buy puts strike 220 or thereabouts short term. At 300+ maybe you take some margin off depending on how deep you are etc, then stop buying puts. Also I'll use leaps, only when asymetric though. Had 10% of the port in 2 year calls 3-2020 share price 175 strike on calls 220, made 250% that sorta thing selling at share price 270. Ofc buy small caps..... they get hammered more than large during down turns... so that's easy. Always been that way. It's all really pretty easy if you just do what works and don't try to be too smart about stuff. Be patient and do your own thing. Basically what everyone here is saying is take risk off during high values and go big when cheap, play your own game.