rkbabang

"supported by its tax revenue base" is another way of saying what I've already said. It is supported by its ability to take a significant portion of the wealth created by everyone who lives in a large area of the planet under threat of violence, and to demand that payment in dollars. It has a large protection racket and it is likely that it will continue for the foreseeable future. I'm not saying that it is unreasonable to value dollars, I hold them myself, I'm just being realistic as to what gives them the value they hold. As for BTC not having anything "backing it"; it is valuable in and of itself because of its properties. It is useful and will become far more useful in the future. I know it is in vogue for value investors to laugh at the concept of holding gold because it "doesn't produce anything", but people have valued it for its money like properties for thousands of years and will continue to do so. Bitcoin has superior money-like properties to gold and thus people will value it, regardless of what value investors think.

Yes, and tulip bulbs still have value. You can buy them at your local garden center today. Prices go up and down on most things, and bubbles happen from time to time. Also the story you are referring to is more urban legend than history. https://cunninghamjeff.medium.com/the-dutch-tulip-mania-that-never-happened-85dd0b18066a

Some things are in demand because people want to own it and other things are in demand because someone powerful is making you use it. The difference between BTC and USD is the difference between consent and coercion.

BTC, because it is more likely to be in demand as a store of value by more people and for a longer time than Greenpacks. Also, like a fiat currency the Green Bay Packers can issue as much stock as it wants, anytime that it wants. The real question is what makes the US Dollar different from Green Bay Packers stock certificates? The only difference I can see is that the dollar is demanded by a large government who will hurt you if you don't pay them a part of everything you create in dollars. The Green Bay Packers should go into the protection racket and demand payment in Greenpacks.

Absolutely.

Added 20% to my LAACZ position. ~8% expected gain on those additional units in a few months.

People can certainly try to create something else, last I checked there were thousands of cryptocurrencies. You don't just have to create something, you have to get everyone else to value it and use it. There will be a market for defi and this might have other blockchains besides Bitcoin which retain a lot of value (although there are Bitcoin maximalists who think Bitcoin wins here too eventually), but the store of value function is definitely a winner take all type of thing and Bitcoin is that winner. Read "The Bitcoin Standard" by Dr. Saifedean Ammous, he makes an excellent case for Bitcoin maximalism.

Exactly. Even if someone is massively wealthy due to bitcoin they will buy houses, cars, yachts, private jets, etc. And if they have no investments or companies earning money they will have wealth going out, but none coming in. And even in the case where someone does not spend their wealth, their kids and grandkids will. This is a problem, if it is a problem, that will eventually take care of itself.

Humans don't value things or not based on social justice theories or wealth inequality preferences. Everyone on earth is just going to say "hey that's not fair" and decide not value bitcoin. I don't think that's how it works.

I do this often. Sometimes to act as a limit order, I write the put for the strike that I want to buy the stock at and usually it goes unfilled and I just keep the premium. Other times I do it expecting not to be put too. I've been making ~$1000/month lately writing puts 1 month out on WMB (The $28 puts I wrote a month ago are expiring tomorrow). With energy inflation as it is I don't think it will go down, so it is like printing money. And if I'm put to, I'd be perfectly happy to own it at $28.

I've been enjoying Dopesick as well. It is very entertaining even though I know it is just drug-war propaganda; complete with cartoonish villains, helpless unwitting victims, and government agent super heroes to the rescue.

Where have you been? This already started. I was talking to my nephew this summer, he's in his early 20s, he said that him and his friends basically listen to only 70s music now. Foo Fighters to release disco album as the Dee Gees https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-57524428

Gloomy is a judgement call based on your perspective. I would have said "the same but more hopeful". I guess a neutral way of putting it is "The same, but more so". As TwoCities mentioned above, your scenario assumes people are indifferent between BTC and USD, I don't think that is the case now and it will become less and less the case over time.

10 people on an island. One produces dollars on his printer and keeps printing more and more and more of them every day. Every day he gets to spend the new dollars at what people value them at on the day he prints them, but once they go into circulation the other 9 people start valuing them less. Another guy invents a digital currency which can't be inflated beyond a certain point. People start valuing Bitcoin more than dollar-guy's paper dollars, while the dollar guy is still printing away every day, making people value the dollars less still. Eventually people won't exchange their Bitcoin for any amount of that guy's paper money, unless they are out of toilet paper, in which case they will value them only for the paper not for the printing on it.

All value is subjective. It is worth exactly what someone will pay you for it. Not one cent more or one cent less. Take your cigarette company, yes it had earnings, but why is it worth 8 times those earnings, and not 0.5 times or 200 times or 8.2 times. It is subjective. Why was it 2% more expensive last month than this month, why will it be worth a different price tomorrow than today? It is subjective and worth only what someone will pay. Same with shiny pieces of metal or a diamond, or a skyscraper, or a Bitcoin.

Could have been a zoom meeting. Hell, it could have been an email.

I used to keep a few percent in gold (3-5%), but I no longer do. Crypto is back up to over a 20% position for me with the recent run up even though I sold ~45% of what I owned earlier this year. I also have a ~2% position in physical Uranium (SRUUF).

Wrote some cash backed Jan $55 ZG puts. That seems like a good price for Zillow, I don't want to pay $70 and if I don't end up getting put to I keep the premium.

All players have been eliminated

I've been watching FX's "Trust" on Hulu. (https://www.fxnetworks.com/shows/trust). It's about the Getty family in the 1970's. It's crazy. Highly recommended. Also, if anyone liked Squid Game watch "Alice in Borderland" (https://www.netflix.com/title/80200575). It's similar to Squid Game, but a lot better IMHO. It's in Japanese and takes place in Japan. But it has English audio as well as captions.

The funny thing about investing is that to make money you have to consistently do what everyone else isn't doing. It is almost skewed toward the non-conformist. Thus it shouldn't surprise anyone that someone with outlandish ideas in other areas of life could also have some good investment ideas. Thinking what everyone else is thinking and doing what everyone else is doing is not a recipe for success.

Impossible. For someone to have a good idea he has to have the same politics as you, believe current medical advice, and has never had a bad idea in the past. Just that fact that Kuppy mentions an investment idea is reason enough not to invest. Just look at Steve Jobs thinking that fruit juice smoothies can cure cancer, obviously one should never have invested in Apple.

Another Black Swan purchase: AAL Jan 2023 $10 Puts. Thanks @Gregmalfor the idea.

I wanted to also say I loved the book. I finally got around to reading it this summer. It was nice to read an in-depth history of just Berkshire the company without all the Buffet personal life stories you get in books like Snowball.

Exactly. The fact that the people most enthused and/or knowledgeable about crypto refer to them as "shitcoins" should give this away. No where during the techbubble did the most enthused internet investors commonly refer to toys.com, et al as shitstocks, not until after the crash anyway. No one really thinks Shiba or any dog-meme coin is going to change the world.