rkbabang

I half agree with LC. Being in #1 myself, I will certainly sell some at some point. Everyone has a price. My price is when I can sell half of my crypto, and after taxes pay off both of my houses + take out my cost basis (which is tiny and practically not significant anyway). That will be less than a double from here. I think #1 will start selling, but people in this group will never sell everything. It will be a bumpy ride as demand from the broader market and institutions increases, but whales start to cash out and/or diversify. As I wrote earlier in this thread: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/cryptocurrencies/msg443127/#msg443127 "The Bitcoin store of value theory is just a theory at this point. Relatively speaking, very few people own it and almost no institutions do yet. There is a huge risk that the theory is wrong. Also BTC is very concentrated in a relatively few accounts (so called "whales"). If the BTC store of value theory plays out the way I think it will, it will be a bumpy ride. Institutions trying to get in driving the price up, the occasional whale cashing out driving the price down. Quite times like most of 2020 where it drifts. Eventually this will all settle down and be more stable, but not anytime soon. It is the largest asymmetric opportunity that I know of. Maybe a once in a century type thing."

I'm sure he doesn't but I do. I always get the feeling that there are some great actionable ideas embedded in his posts that I am just not smart enough to extract, understand, and implement. Take crypto, I have just been very simple, I've bought some and held. I'd love to be able to create a small highly leveraged bet on the downside when it hits closer to 50K, but I have no idea how to do that.

When does regret set in? $40k, $80k, $500k? ;) It doesn't - until we buy the put ;) A whole lot of stimulus cheques, and a whole lot of Robin Hood, could really make our year. Lots of small trades, collectively and consecutively hitting the ask, and all adding to the network effect - this is where we learn about the REAL use of options. Success at a 50K market strike, a 50% decline to 25K, and a CME derivative, will change lives. And if the premium cost is < the realized gain to date, a punch card punt. When you are young, mitigated risk is your friend NOT your enemy - something often not realized until too late. SD Nobody makes me feel less educated than when SD writes something. I have to read everything you write multiple times and still come away not understanding half of it. Not sure the takeaway from this - but I'm most likely the idiot. I think you just said you're going to buy puts at $50k strike and get rich at 25k - and then added some guru-like prophetic clause at the end? LOL, thank god I'm not the only one. Sometimes I read SD's posts and I am not sure if he isn't being clear, English not being his 1st language, or I am just too dense to understand. I usually conclude that it is probably a little bit of the former and a good amount of the latter.

I agree with you, I down sized from 4000+ sqft to 3000 sq ft 5 years ago and I always drive my cars 10 years or more. I just bought a Lexus GX this year as well as a Forester, but I won't buy another car for a decade or more. There will be no $600/mo car payments. I did have a chuckle at your comment about the "only 3000 sq ft" house though. I grew up in a house that was about 700 sq ft with one bathroom smaller than one of my closets in my house now. Even though I've lived in larger, I still think of my 3000 sq ft house with 4 bd, 3.5 baths and 3 car garage as massive and unnecessarily extravagant.

My stock holdings for 2020: 60.21% Holdings that did well (in no particular order): AYRWF, FSLY, AAPL, AMZN, SHOP, TTD, SE, SWAV, TRUP, TRRSF, APPN, AAXN, UI, SDGR, WFCF Crypto holdings in 2020: 329.48% and up another 39.08% YTD in 2021. As of today my crypto holdings are about 29% of my total stock/crypto portfolio. BTC is now my largest holding of any type. Holdings mostly BTC, ETH, XMR, XTZ

The only stock I own out of all of them listed above is AYR Strategies and it sure had a great year. I don't think it was this topic that I first heard it, because I owned it already by the end of 2019, but I'm pretty sure it was one of your posts where I first heard of it. Thanks.

Use any wallet and just keep control of it yourself until you wish to give it to the child.

I just finished season 2, it was really good. S1 was okay, S2 will make it worth it.

I bought some MSTR in my IRA, but yeah, for the most part I agree just but BTC.

A lot of Christmas Bitcoin buying.

Merry Christmas everyone

XRP certainly isn't a cryptocurrency, it sounds like they are trying to make the case that XRP is their product, not a security. That seems like a reasonable claim. "Ripple has pushed back aggressively for years on the notion that XRP is a security. The company notes it does not have discretion to tap the reserve funds as it wishes, and that XRP has become increasingly decentralized as banks and other merchants use it as a bridge currency in cross-border transactions. According to Garlinghouse, the SEC regarding XRP as a security controlled by Ripple is akin to viewing oil as a security controlled by Exxon."

Even if he just broke even or even operated at a loss he'd be able to issue stock and raise billions.

Price is subjective and completely a function of supply and demand, not cost or labor. Marx had the same theory and was wrong. You don't think the difference arbitrages away over time? No. Gold has been around as long as civilization (probably long before) and it hasn't yet. How much time are you talking? To expand on this a little. Price is subjective. Read that again. Price is subjective. For everything. All commodities, BTC, stocks, goods, services, metals, gems, labor. Cost comes into play when you are trying to figure out whether or not it is worth producing it. If your cost to produce it is more than you could get for it then it probably isn't a good idea to produce more. If your cost is less than you can get it might be a good idea to produce more. But your cost of production has no effect on value. Producing more can effect how people value it because it increases the supply, but no one cares how much it costs to produce (other than the producer himself).

Price is subjective and completely a function of supply and demand, not cost or labor. Marx had the same theory and was wrong. You don't think the difference arbitrages away over time? No. Gold has been around as long as civilization (probably long before) and it hasn't yet. How much time are you talking?

Price is subjective and completely a function of supply and demand, not cost or labor. Marx had the same theory and was wrong.

The Bitcoin store of value theory is just a theory at this point. Relatively speaking, very few people own it and almost no institutions do yet. There is a huge risk that the theory is wrong. Also BTC is very concentrated in a relatively few accounts (so called "whales"). If the BTC store of value theory plays out the way I think it will, it will be a bumpy ride. Institutions trying to get in driving the price up, the occasional whale cashing out driving the price down. Quite times like most of 2020 where it drifts. Eventually this will all settle down and be more stable, but not anytime soon. It is the largest asymmetric opportunity that I know of. Maybe a once in a century type thing.

Made this very point, but about 30 seconds after you ;D went ahead and deleted the redundant comment I'd also add, in addition to making the bet payable to either of you in the event of loss, it's probably not the money that he's making the bet for. If I'm in his shoes, and think the US is going to collapse into nothingness and bet a friend $100 that it's going to happen - it's worth it to me to accept that worthless $100 in 15-years just to say that I was right and that he knows it. Sometimes, it's not about the monetary reward. Yep. And even if your friend is 100% right and the US dollar does way better than you expect, it will only be $85-$90 2020 equivalent dollars that it will cost you at the most. An easy bet to make.

Would you even have taken the bet if you had to pay a certain amount in BTC? You'd be foolish to. If you win, that amount of BTC will be worth almost nothing, if you lose that amount of BTC could be so enormous you could never possibly pay unless you buy it now and hold it so that you would have it in case you lost. And you probably don't want to buy that much BTC if you don't think it will be worth anything in 15 years. The US dollar will not change as much as BTC has the potential to. Maybe inflation cuts the value of the dollar by 25% or by half, maybe 80% in the worst case or in the best case 10-15%. It is certain that the dollar will be worth less in 15 years than it is today, so both of you will likely be able to pay up if you lose.

Hmm, I don't know if you've ever visited a stock discussion board, but people tend to talk about investments more when they go way up or way down. I've been buying through some of the ups and all of the downs since 2014 or so even if I haven't posted here every time.

Yes. Transaction fees can be charged to compensate miners. It will likely be less lucrative than the bitcoin awards, but maybe more like utility type returns. Definitely will be cheaper than comparable swipe fees on credit cards to support their networks and etc. Also, unless there are some serious advancements in life extension technologies, most of us will not be around to see it.

Long term value investor cites short term price fluctuations as indication of long term thesis success/failure I just poted numbers. I didn't make any comments. You did that. I just assumed you were letting the board know that crypto was on sale. Bitcoin +600% since this post. Doesn't produce cashflow though so cite some Munger quote and avoid independent thinking. Correction: It doesn't produce anything I used to think gold was valuable too until I heard that when you fondle the cube it will not respond.

You don't want anyone to have an accident trying to get to their computer.

I recently re-signed up for Showtime to watch the last season of Shameless (I'm assuming everyone has seen this, if not go to Netflix and binge-watch it from S1E1 immediately). I also started watching a show called "Your Honor" that 2 episodes in has got me hooked.