rkbabang

Quoted from the returns thread. I think 60x is unlikely over that time outside of an extreme bubble. But 10-15x seems reasonable. Yes, 60X would be extreme bubble territory for sure, that's why I put it on the high end. 15X is a no brainer, 20+X is my target. If anything close to 60X becomes reality then it would be difficult to even know for sure what the gains were as this would be an extreme bubble combined with a Bitcoin-took-over-everything scenario where most of the fiat currencies no long exist and there wouldn't even be an equivalent to the US Dollar to measure it against.

Yeah

I personally have over 20% in crypto even after selling almost half last May, but I wouldn't feel comfortable telling other people to do that. My cost basis is almost nothing (less than 1%) so I'm comfortable holding and seeing where it goes. I think bitcoin returning 20-60X in the next 10 years is not out of the question, so even a 3% position could move the needle if I am correct. And it wouldn't be much of a drag if I am wrong.

Yes, it is amazing how few colds/flues you get when you are cautious like we've all been the last few years. Since the fall of 2019 I've had exactly 1 cold, I was sick for a few days this past July (tested negative for COVID) I had a runny nose and was sneezing for a few days. That is it. I've never gone 2 years with so little time being sick before.

I don't think you can think of them the same way you think of stocks or real estate. Gold or other commodities are a closer analog, but not perfect either. There is supply & demand, there are the network effects. Bitcoin is a store of value today and may become a widely used currency someday. Also it may be used for dapps/fintech/defi etc. My thesis is that there will only ever be 21 Million of them in existence and the demand for them will cause the price to sky rocket in the next decade or two. I do think the price stabilizes as some point, but that is a long way off. If you are really interested in understanding the thesis for Bitcoin read "The Bitcoin Standard" by Dr. Saifedean Ammous. For ETH, my thesis is a little bit shakier. I'm not as sure of ETH as I am of BTC. I think BTC might win in the end even for defi. But right now ETH is where all the interesting things are happening in the defi world and I think the next few years will see a lot of growth and increased demand for ETH. It is too early to tell. I do think that anyone who doesn't have at least a percent or three of their portfolio in BTC is going to be sorry someday.

There will be a market correction someday, so every day that passes is a day closer to the day that they will be right. I'd rather make double digit returns for a decade then suffer a 50% correction with some cash on hand for buying opportunities. Rather than spend a decade waiting for the crash. After the crash comes we will spend the next 5-10 years seeing articles about the guy that "predicted" the 202x crash. Oh well, nothing ever changes. Bears will be bears.

Are you worried about the price of aluminum going significantly higher?

That is a great point. All of the largest companies which make up a huge percent of the stock market all do business globally, yet you are comparing them to the GDP of just one country. I'm not sure the comparison makes as much sense as it used to. That isn't to say that I'm not a little worried about the macro. I've recently bought out of the money puts on Apple, Tesla, Peloton, and American Airlines as a little insurance.

It depends on the people. Californians seem to be happy with rolling blackouts on hot days. I don't see anyone screaming for nuclear plants there. It seems that people will happily sit in the dark and sweat(or freeze depending on location), before they will change their minds. Reminds me of the old joke: What did socialists use before candles? Electricity.

Went on a buying spree today. No new positions, but added to: AIV $5 calls (2024) EPD MSGE SE SRUUF WMB BTC

Thanks for sharing that. I never lived in a dorm, but that looks at least as nice as many at the school I attended. We also had no need for surfboard storage. It seems to me that indoor space might be less important in a climate where that is a valuable amenity. That is a pretty nice dorm. A lot better than where I stayed the year I lived on campus at WPI. (https://www.wpi.edu/about/locations/hackfeld-house) I shared a room with another person that wasn't much bigger than the sleeping rooms you see in those plans. It had bunk beds and room for 2 desks not 1. No A/C. No nice amenities. We had to walk across campus to get food or to get to a gym, etc. They crammed 7 of us into the top floor 3 bed rooms (3 in the largest bedroom and bunk beds in the smaller two bedrooms). The RA had his own room on the 1st floor. Which also had a small living room and kitchen. I think Munger did a good job designing this. There are plenty of windows in the common areas and the rooms are just for sleeping or doing work at your desk. It looks like two bathrooms per 8 people, which is what I had and it wasn't a problem (I don't know if that would work for girls though).

My largest accounts are my retirement non-taxable accounts which did 39% (I hold about 30 stocks in these accounts many did well). My 2nd largest is my crypto accounts which did 152% (mostly due to ETH which went up way more than BTC in 2021). Finally there is my taxable account which did 112% in 2021 mostly due to LAACZ being bought out and APTS calls. EDIT: there is also private real estate which went up in value substantially in 2021, but I don't have an exact number for that.

Nuclear's main problem is politics and fear. 1) "every nuclear plant requires years (decades) of paperwork to break ground" is purely and entirely a political issue. 2) Is mostly a political issue building/maintaining dangerous light water reactors when there are better designs which can't get by the 1) politics/fear issue. 3) Again being limited by 1). There are reactor designs to close the cycle and use spent fuel from conventional reactors, but those are not being built because of 1) politics/fear. Humanity could get rid of fossil fuels entirely in electricity generation if people weren't so damn afraid of even the word "nuclear". It isn't a technological problem at this point, it is a stupidity problem.

I haven't narrowed it down to specific companies yet, but I like energy, residential real estate, and banks (probably in that order). And I'm backing off a little on most tech this year although I think semiconductors specifically will have another great year selling everything they can get manufactured just to fill the current backlog.

There's TerraPower in the US building a demonstration molten sodium plant in Wyoming. https://www.terrapower.com/natrium-demo-wyoming-coal-plant/ https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/08/bill-gates-terrapower-is-building-next-generation-nuclear-power.html

Unfortunately he's been canceled by the left. You are not allowed to say that he has ever done anything or said anything in his entire life that has any value whatsoever in any way. When someone is cancelled they are cancelled entirely.

I'm going to have to read this. One book I read a few months ago that is on a similar topic is "Escape from Camp 14: One Man's Remarkable Odyssey from North Korea to Freedom in the West" by Blaine Harden. It is the life story of a man who was born in a North Korean prison camp and escaped. He is one of the few people to ever have escaped both the camps and North Korea. It is horrific the way they are forced to live.

How can you forgot to have mentioned Warren Buffett? Maybe too early to tell, but maybe Forrest Li of SE. Thinking about companies I've owned in the past, besides some already mentioned, there was Jim Koch of Boston Beer Company and Selim Bassoul at Middleby, Steve Jobs at Apple although Tim Cook has done a great job too.

Years ago I participated in the Tezos (XTZ) IPO. I've been staking it for the last few years and have earned quite a bit more. It's free money, so why not? I also have a little ETH2 staked at Coinbase.

Sold 10% of AAPL and purchased out of the money AAPL puts. Also some way out of the money PTON puts. (see my post in the Peloton thread).

Added to UI & SRUUF today as well.

Added to CLPR, SE, & BTC

From SMBC comics

Absolutely. This goes back to at least the mid-1980s with Timothy May's "The Crypto Anarchist Manifesto" (https://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/classes/6.805/articles/crypto/cypherpunks/may-crypto-manifesto.html). When I first got internet access in college in 1993 there were thriving cyberpunk/crypto anarchist/extropian movements on usenet (all of them related and many of the same people in the discussions). Bitcoin was a long time in coming.

First value, then exchange. People don't start using something as a medium of exchange before it is valuable, people use something of value as a medium of exchange. You can't put the cart before the horse. Bitcoin is now becoming valuable. It needs to prove itself as a store of value and then people will want to use it as a medium of exchange. There will be solutions to this. Most small exchanges of value will be done instantly off chain (lightning network or some other financial tech) most large sums will be done in 10+ min or so directly on chain.