rkbabang

I don't know what the top will be this cycle, $150K - $500K would be my guess, but that's a big range. I don't plan to trim BTC. I do plan to trim MSTR when I think we are at or close to the top. Maybe sell half which will be many times my cost basis by then. My current plan is to hold an accumulate Bitcoin through the next 3-4 cycles at least. 16 years from now I'll be in my late 60s and will hopefully not even need my bitcoin, but it will be there if I need it.

^^^

Probably a bad analogy given that there's a whole generation of people now that can't even read a clock which has hands.

I still hold some from back in 2015 when I was playing with it and found it interesting. I sold about half of it in 2021 (along with some Bitcoin, to pay off 2 mortgages I had, then sold about half of what was left earlier this year to buy more Bitcoin. What I have left is still significant, but I've come to agree with @wachtwoord about it. It may have some value, it may be useful for something, but it isn't a store of value, it isn't money, it isn't secure, limited, decentralized, or immutable (and now even less so that it is proof of stake). I regret not selling all of it in 2021 so that I wouldn't have to have sold any Bitcoin at all. Also I regret not selling all what I had left earlier this year to convert it to Bitcoin. My dumb thinking was that I didn't want to have all of those capital gains in one year, so I'll probably sell it in 2025. That said, I bought my ETH at $8, sold half in 2021 for $4050. A gain of 506X. That's the best trade I've ever made.

I wouldn’t expect Bitcoin to do quite as well in the next 15 years as it did in the last 15. Bitcoin was basically worthless 15 years ago in 2009. It traded in 2010, but never hit $1. Bitcoin first hit $1 in early 2011, so it’s up 90,000X in a little less than 14 years. I wouldn’t expect it to go up 90,000X from here in the next 15 years. Maybe 25X-1000X if I had to give an 80% confident range.

They are very unlikely, but not impossible. Bitcoin has been around for 15 years, is open source, and is now worth $1.7T Anyone can examine the code and try to find a bug. That is a huge pot for a potential hacker just sitting there for the taking. Yet no one has hacked it yet by finding some critical flaw. That is a good indication that it is unlikely to happen.

And since you said risks in the next 5-10 years: I'll add: Even though Bitcoin maxis are eventually correct, you buy at a cycle high and it takes years before you return to break even. Think of people who bought at almost $20K seeing it go down to $4K or people who bought at $60k watching it fall to $15K. There are definitely short term risks in an asset this volatile.

Some reasons: There is a flaw in the encryption that no one has noticed yet and a hacker discovers this and starts spending Bitcoin that aren't his. Panic ensues and Bitcoin goes to $0 pretty quickly. Quantum computing happens before the Bitcoin code upgrades to use fully quantum resistant encryption. Panic ensues... see above. Another type of crypto currency is so much better than Bitcoin somehow in some way that Bitcoin can not be forked to adopt the new features that everyone just switches to that instead. We are wrong and no one wants a hard asset which can't be inflated away. People really do prefer government money. Long term, there isn't much use for the most secure network ever created.

Yes, if anything this cycle seems a little more bullish. We had it re-touch its all time high before the halving earlier in the year. And it is seems to be rallying a little early right now.

I expect it will be decades off, not just years. If I had to guess 30-60 years. You are not going to replace the measure of value in society over night. We are so early that we are still at the stage where people are measuring the value of BTC in their local currencies rather than the other way around. When people start saying that the USD is worth X sats and the CAD is worth Y sats and the Pound is worth Z sats, you will know that we are over the hump. It will be a roller-coaster ride in the interim, but the general direction over any long window of time (say any 4 year window) will be up. Which is exactly what has happened so far. I say 4 years, because the halving cycle gives it this built in 4 year cycle where the inflows from newly mined coins gets cut in half.

Valuing it is extremely difficult. It's like someone telling you in 2004 that you could invest privately in Facebook and it might have 3 billion active users someday and make a lot of money from monetizing its users. 1) Would you even believe that? 2) How could you value it? How could you know exactly what a user would be worth to FB in 20 years? But you would know that the company would likely be worth a lot if that were to happen.

Also 3 books I'd recommend highly. 1) "The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking", by Saifedean Ammous 2) "Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better" by Lyn Alden 3) "Softwar: A Novel Theory on Power Projection and the National Strategic Significance of Bitcoin" by Jason Lowery The first 2 are similar, but make different arguments and go over the history slightly differently. I found I derived a lot value from reading both of them. But certainly read at least one of them. Softwar is a little far out there and I'm still not sold on it and not completely sure what to think of it, but he goes over non-monetary uses for the Bitcoin blockchain claiming the cryptocurrency/hard asset way is just one way of looking at it and not even the most important way. He says Bitcoin is better referred to as Bitpower and gives a Second Amendment argument for the right of Americans to own, or should I say keep and bear, bitcoin. I found it interesting that money isn't the only application for the hardest asset and the most secure network ever conceived by humanity. Bitcoin, its blockchain, and its network aren't just money or just an asset or just a way of waging war, it is something completely new and different. A completely new technology that is in a category of its own.

Good interview with Tad Smith. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1z3bxzu_5E8&ab_channel=TimKotzman Here's a good short clip from it:

Hmm. Lets go over this. In blue is what you said and then me agreeing with your statement. In green part staring with the key words "I think" is my telling you why I agree with your statement. I never said you agreed with the green part starting with "I think..." Your reading comprehension skills appear to be severely lacking. YES! You are 100% correct. I couldn't agree more. I think the days of crony-capitalism/state-capitalism/corporatism are numbered. There's another term for a system that has "private property and the profit motive as legitimate incentives for productivity—provided that they did not conflict with the interests of the state." Free markets are not state-capitalism/government controlled markets.

YES! You are 100% correct. I couldn't agree more. I think the days of crony-capitalism/state-capitalism/corporatism are numbered. There's another term for a system that has "private property and the profit motive as legitimate incentives for productivity—provided that they did not conflict with the interests of the state." Free markets are not state-capitalism/government controlled markets.

I've said probably 10s of times on this board that: 1) Bitcoin will eventually be the standard by which all of humanity values everything. 2) If you don't think this is true then you probably shouldn't own it.

You clipped my sentence in half. You should work for the corporate press. "Eventually there will be a way to value it that will be thought in schools and then it will be ok."

It's looking like I'll be buying more MSGE for $40 this Friday. I had been writing MSGE puts lately and I wrote some $40 Nov 15 puts a few weeks ago and got $1.04 for them. So I'll be paying $38.96 for my shares. Not too bad. Especially because I've been selling puts for a few months which didn't get exercised.

Yes. If I can't plug it into some formula I learned in school then I can't value it so it's valueless. What also limits the ability to value it is that it is a one off, like the Picasso (this statement will be misinterpreted in a few minutes I'm sure). There are no comparables. There is no other crypto that is comparable to Bitcoin. Eventually there will be a way to value it that will be thought in schools and then it will be ok. But it will also be far more stable and probably only rise (or fall) in purchasing power every year around the rate of the growth in the world's economy. It will eventually be a stable store of value, indeed the very measure of value, but when that happens the time to make a fortune from it will be long past.

Yes, as a BRKB shareholder it would. I think it would benefit all BRK shareholders and their greed.

That's a different market (no one rents out their homes in my town. If you search for a home to rent in my town of pop 25K people you will not find a single one), but it is still a market. The rents are driven by supply and demand and that drives what people are willing to pay for the properties. Why is someone willing to pay $2000/mo for a 1 bedroom apartment today when 10 years ago it would have been half that? The USD hasn't lost half its buying power in 10 years. It is supply and demand. The market. Prices rise and prices fall. This is why socialism and planned economies don't work. No agriculture minister can set an appropriate price for grain and no housing minister can set an appropriate price for housing, because there is no such thing as an appropriate price. It is only what is someone likely to pay today?

"Widely accepted valuation metrics" is just a fancy way of saying this is what other buyers have recently paid for similar houses in this area, so this is what we think someone might pay for yours. It is just supply and demand. Nothing more. There is no quantifiable "intrinsic" value to a house. I didn't look at my house and say "look this house has an intrinsic value worth double this", far from it, I thought I overpaid. I outbid a few other people and paid well over asking.

Yes, that would be the best thing BRK could do with it's cash right now.

How do you know if the price is appropriate? Zillow says my house is worth more than twice what I paid for it 9 years ago. It says my 2nd house is worth almost 2.5 times what I paid for it 5 years ago. How is that possible other than "that is what someone would be willing to pay"? That's what a market is. That's what an "appropriate" price is. It is what someone is willing to pay. It is supply and demand. Nothing more, nothing less.

Yes, same as any investment. Usually when I sell a stock it is because I think it is overvalued. i.e. more people want to buy it than is reasonable. I hope for this for all my investments. Sure you can own a stock you think is undervalued for decades and tell yourself a good story about how you've been buying cheap, but if no one ever wants to buy it when you eventually need the money and want to sell you will not get what you think its worth. You always hope that one day everyone will want to own what you have. That said, my thesis on Bitcoin is not that "I need to get more people on the Bitcoin boat," it is that almost everyone will someday realize that Bitcoin is the hardest asset known to man and will want to get on the Bitcoin boat. There is a difference. You keep implying that I or other people posting about bitcoin think that we have some roll to play in its success. I can assure you we don't, and we don't think that we do. If my thesis depended on people posting to the internet I would definitely not own any.