frommi

I watched a lot of interviews with Sinclair, the basic stuff is all fine. But he is deep into supplements, like Bryan Johnson. And for a reason, because they sell this stuff. You can spend millions on this with zero change on your longevity. >95% of people will not do the core stuff (like workouts/changing diet/stop smoking) and focus on the things that change little. Because the core stuff requires hard work and changing habits. Taking supplements/spending money is easy. But it will not make you live that much longer in isolation.

I eat 3 eggs per day for breakfast, i doubt its the eggs. High cholesterol levels can come from being overweight, because it changes how much cholesterol your body produces. If you eat too much cholesterol your body will mostly just get rid of what it doesn't need. If i were you i would cut carbohydrates out completly first and see how it goes. For me going low-carb was a life-changing event. I will never go back. But everybody is different in that regard, you have to test which diet works best for you. Going whole foods and avoiding processed foods as already mentioned is core. I would suggest a diary where you write down what you eat. Often that process of writing down will already change what you eat. As for strength training, i would begin with push-ups, squads and sit-ups. These are "easy", effective and free.

I have a simple rule, anyone that has a company in the field of medical stuff that wants to sell you something for longevity (even if it is just a book) i dont trust. So advice from Sinclair or Esselstyn are out for me . I think its pretty common sense nowadays that working out (having enough muscle mass), not smoking or drinking alcohol, good sleep (~8 hours) and not being overweight is >90% of the journey. The rest is just noise, and most of the time somebody just wants to sell you something.

1.65% real IF there is no rerating to the mean. If you factor that into the equotation you are looking at negative real returns for the index. But most here probably dont invest into the index, so who cares?

While i believe there are still cheap stocks available, i would not be surprised by a large crash this year. In fact all facts that i see point to at least a 70-80% chance of a 15-20% drawdown. Not because stock market valuations are very high by historical standards, but because the economy is slowly bending over. I looked at the past 50 years, and 1 year after the yield curve inverts and the unemployment rate creeps up (vs. the 3 month average) in 80% of all cases the stock market tanked at least 15% over the summer. Maybe history is not a good guide here, but i see no reason why it should be different this time. You see it already in the numbers of retailers like TGT, SBUX or MCD that the consumer is stretched to the hill. So be prepared

I missed it either way, but i dont regret missing that, because it was not really knowable beforehand. But the fact that netnets work very well was knowable since a long long time. You just had to read the right books and listen to the greatest investing mentor on earth. It just doesn't work with really large sums of money (>5 million probably). And netnet's didnt stop working in 2007, in fact since i invest in netnet's that systematic approach has always beaten the market over a 3-5 year timeframe. And by a large margin (for example 2020->2024 that system has a cagr of 50% with real money on the line even though 2023 it was flat).

I regret not learning about value investing and businesses earlier. My investing career started by gambling as a day trader and because of early wins it took me at least 7-8 years until i gave it up. And i lost a fuck ton of money in that time. Wasted another 2-3 years with asset allocation shit and ETF's. Knowing about net net stocks in 2000-2007 would have been a life changing time. Probably would sit on a yacht writing this now.

LOL. If you dont find cheap stuff at the moment you are not working hard enough.

Puts on BA,TSLA and DAX. BA/TSLA are the worst large cap stocks in my quant mom/value ranking and the DAX puts are for the seasonals (sell in may and go away actually works in the DAX)

MDLZ, i am addicted to the chocolade and the stock is not as expensive as it used to be.

Talking my book here, so Tobacco, REIT's or discounted NCAV stocks. Everything in the oil sector like OXY, gold miners (or even better royalty companies like RGLD,SAND) etc. But if we get a recession in 1-2 years, i doubt you will make a lot of money on these until after the recession. I would really love to see a repeat of 00-08, but i doubt we will see it. Because back than china was building their ghost cities, which will probably not be repeated and they consumed a lot of the worlds resources for that. (iron ore etc.)

Yes, but only half of the story is written and only interest income is fixed for 4 years. What if insurance goes into a soft market now that every insurance company can get higher rates? And what if interest rates are much lower in 4 years, dont you think the market will anticipate that? Its all rosy now. I bought @ 0.5x bv and thought that around 1-1.1 is a good target (because that is where FFH was priced for a very long period of time), so at the moment the next year of income is also priced in at 1.2 x bv. If you are a long term holder just ignore me and stay the course .

Sold FFH after my thesis has played out and the stock has re-rated. Don't like betting on further multiple expansion.

Thats a very good idea, i track my dividend income in a similar sheet since 5 or 6 years and it is a great motivation. Tracking earnings is probably even better , i think i will add that to my sheet. Thanks!

Its a little bit funny, the article is from 2016 and since then the staples sector has underperformed by a lot. Maybe past performance is a poor indicator?

In my view a "moat" is something that protects the relationship with your customers. Insurance is a price competitive business and i doubt you can really have a moat here. If someone comes in and insures your belongings for nothing, you would switch in an instant. Of course right now nobody does it, but its just to illustrate that there is no moat. Coca Cola has the taste and coffein in it as a moat. If you like the taste of coca cola, you will never switch if the taste of the other drink doesn't come very very close to it or you like the other drink more. And the coffein lets you crave it, its an addictive drug. FFH right now are two businesses, the insurance and the asset manager. The asset manager also can't really have a moat and as they grow bigger they will not get better results than the market. Maybe sometime they will win big (like the duration decision), but sometimes they won't (like the shorting fiasco). I really doubt that they will not make mistakes again in some other form. Especially at their size its already really hard to add alpha forever. So also no moat here. BRK trades a higher multiples of book because they have operating businesses like the railroads, that itself have moats. (because rails in the US are limited for example, or the taste of see's candies). But this is just my opinion. (if there is a moat in insurance, it most come from lower costs, but why shouldn't this be reconstructable by someone else?)

Sold half of my FFH position and bought boring Apartment REIT's, AVB, MAA, NXRT and a canadian utility CPX:CA. FFH position just got too big part of the portfolio (35%). Still think FFH is a good value, but not as good as 3 years ago.

Sold some MO and bought more STG, they will buy back 10% of their stock in the next year.

Sold DAX Puts and bought MED, Evolution AB and DCC PLC.

Sold out of Karelia Tobacco. Share price has gone up while the earnings have declined, so this was not a hard decision and i have better opportunities right now.

Bought some more, 6% position now.

Scandinavian Tobacco Group. 4% Position.

30$ BTI 2025 Calls. Pretty much doubled my already outsized BTI position with these calls. Nominal value is around 35% of my portfolio now. Final Menthol proposal should come any day now and i expect a relief rally following this, but can be completly wrong here.

If people would approach cars economically no one would drive big pickups and everyone would drive along in 5-10 year old Toyotas. Reality looks quite different. Whats also really missing here is that your own car gives you the freedom to drive whereever whenever you like. Need that one thing that your wife needs for cooking asap? Have fun finding a ready autonomous car that picks you up in 60 seconds stays at the store for 10 minutes and brings you back . This freedom is probably the reason car ownership is so high right now.

Maybe, it depends on the company doing the audits. In my company we have two separate entities doing this stuff and the pure cost for the "Jahresabschluss" are around 3k and there is nothing in there that you can do yourself. I think this cost depends on the asset base or revenue for the year.