frommi

Yeah i think you can do fine in all of the names mentioned, and the basket approach is probably a good idea. Its also a bit personal, i would prefer FISV solely for the reason that i see its logo everytime i go to my supermarket.

And i didn't buy FIS because they stopped their buyback program to delever, i learned in tobacco that the market doesn't really like such a move, that was the reason BTI was such a laggard in the beginning of the tobacco bull market. But might be different here.

For me FOUR is much more at risk in a recession (because of the end market of stadiums and hotels) and their cost of debt is a lot higher than the rest, so it was easy for me to pass on that one. I can see me owning FISV,FIS,GPN,AYDEN,V,MA at some point, but the last three dont pass my cheapness test at the moment. I am a bit hesitant to buy V/MA at current prices when theres also the stablecoin disruption risk hanging over their head. I own FISV and GPN at the moment.

I can understand your view, but FIS and GPN are both bad capital allocators in my view. Both paid 10x and 12x EBITDA for a business while their own stock trades at 6 or 7x EBITDA. I understand the transaction that took place and agree that both parts are now at the right place, but the real beneficiary was GTCR. FISV on the other hand just has this "unknown" overhang of the past management, but it now has a very good management in place that has kitchen sunk every number in their toolbox to look good coming quarters. I doubt there are material differences between the businesses, but the management at FISV now is much better.

Yes, Klarna looks a lot like what Paypal is doing. No interest in that side of things, especially since FISV is such an obvious bargain. Their bonds trade at +1.3% over treasuries, if there would be real trouble, these bonds would show it: Bond Comparison: Payment Sector vs. 10Y US Treasury Issuer / Benchmark Maturity Coupon Current Yield Rating (S&P/Moody's) ISIN / Ticker Shift4 Payments (FOUR) 15.08.2032 6.75% ~7.04% BB- / Ba3 US82452JAB44 Global Payments (GPN) 15.08.2035 ~5.85% ~6.10% BBB / Baa3 US37940XAA32 Fiserv (FISV) 11.08.2035 5.25% ~5.60% A- / Baa2 US337738BQ04 10Y US Treasury (Benchmark) 10 Years – 4.32% AAA / Aaa –

Also bought TLT puts because my trend following system has switched to short on this. I am not sure the Iranian talks will really be solved in a way that oil goes down again, but lets see, maybe this is just a fake out.

Sold out of AGAE in my NCAV portfolio after being up 180% and closed the gap to NCAV (just a small position). Funny thing is that they put out a press release like this: So mentioning AI and tokens lets your stock pop 150%, cool times. But na, its not a bubble

Yes . But will take time until its really obvious for everyone, maybe i get in again someday.

Started my summer DAX put position. (DEC26, 22800) target is around 19000 if i get lucky. ( likely not ) Sold SKYH and some of my NCAV portfolio to fund this. (Probably a bad idea, but i dont like the Reddit and this forum's LLM-hype about this stock)

You may be right, i forgot about government spending and the deficit.

this was 2008: There was a lag of 1-2 months back than, but as we all know in the end there where very deflationary forces at play. Interestingly Bond yields AND oil prices were at similar levels to today.

this is today: And this was when oil last spiked in 2021/2022:

Isnt it same amount of money chasing the same basket of goods = some stuff gets more expensive (oil, etc.) but other stuff will get cheaper because you still have the same amount of money? In 2021 the printing presses of all countries were running hot, covid checks were handed to people etc, this was the real driver of inflation. You dont have that now.

https://fortune.com/2026/04/09/ai-backlash-quiet-quitting-fobo-obsolete-white-collar-rebellion/ That sounds a lot different than we will kick out all employees and let the AI agents do the job.

They should speed up their IPO plans, because some day we dont buy this marketing BS anymore. Read behind the headline and it doesnt sound that scary at all anymore.

trueflation says no. A lot is different than in 2021/22. I think its quite the opposite, recession is very likely and with that deflation. But who knows, macro is hard

What can go wrong? Maybe someday we have to shut down the internet.

I doubt Israel and USA will accept point 2 and 7 for more than 10 days, so this war will just continue in 2 weeks.

Sold 1/3 of my EVO JUN26 calls to recoup my initial investment, now the rest is free money. This was a 3,5 bagger thanks to the dividend cut.

Do you drive a tank truck?

Given the fact that nearly every payment processor in SMB sector is just growing by aquisitions, shouldnt that also imply that it is very sticky? Ayden doesnt seem to target SMB's (or only via Shopify) and Block is more expensive for the merchant? Margins for GPN and FISV still look very stable, even if FISV had the problems with the additional fees from previous Management that they rolled back. Maybe what we are seeing is just the consumer getting under pressure and that reverses someday?

Be careful with private credit And if you know Soros theory of reflexity it is possible that the redemptions itself lead to increased cost of capital/debt and than to defaults in this space.

Maybe you should let trump now about it, so he can win again. Or the market already knows and thats why we are up today after starting the day at -2% with no real positive news.

Depends on what you seed, if somethings grows 20%/year and is reasonable priced i won't sell. But up to now i mainly bought blue chips/slow growers. There are not a lot of businesses that compound value faster than 10-12% (yield+growth), especially dividend payers which was my main focus up to this year. But i slowly converted to be dividend-agnostic. I even bought Fairfax as a dividend stock with a 4% yield .

I handle my portfolio like a garden i plant seeds and when they've grown up i harvest them . Some seeds dont grow at all and i pull them out to make room for healthier seeds.