frommi

In both cases the bubble is in the E

When you have a sector ETF like SOXX go up 40% in one month you can be damn sure that we are closer to the top than most people think. I am already thinking about selling puts on 3x short ETF's but chickened out. 20% premium for holding 30 days sounds pretty good. My way of going short AI is to go long software stocks. It looks like this is a pair trade for most, and it is clear no brainer. Adobe at 10 times earnings growing 10-15% with a clear balance sheet? I mean WTF? Or CSU at 13x this years FCF growing 25% per year? This is to me shooting fish in a barrel. And there a lot of other high quality businesses on sale right now like BKNG or CPRT.

Talking my book here: KSPI 8.5% LON:DOM 5.9% Nomad 7% Edenred 6.2% Edit: Forgot OTCM, when you count the special dividend its also close to 5-6% yield.

How do you do that? In my team we use AI sparingly for clearly specified tasks (like refactorings or generating testcode) because as someone already mentioned here it tends to generate a lot of boiler plate code that we dont really want. And not understanding and being able to maintain the generated code is the way to get in trouble fast with real production code. I hear some stories where people go back to hand writing code already because in the end you are not necessary faster with AI, its just a different method to generate code. But maybe we are just using it wrong.

In the first two minutes you already realize that these guys have no clue what they are talking about. 10 times more compute necessary for 2x improvement in model performance is not exponential, its getting dminishing returns for each amount of compute.

I really want to understand how its possible, what do you mean with a lot of cash, 80%? In the 2025 return threat you mentioned you did 188% in 2025. You run circles around me and i want to learn how that works. Your 2025 return alone is more than i did over 5 years. Or dou you measure the -10% from the start of the year or some other arbitrary point in time?

Never more than -10%? How do you do that? Only invest 20% of your money?

@Parsad Thx for sharing. A good reminder to limit my exposure to these kind of countries.

What has helped me stay calm is creating a spreadsheet with all dividends and owner earnings my portfolio generates and just look at that. If prices change but earnings and dividends don't -> just give a fck.

KSPI

Is that some kind of pair trade, long semis, short software? Will be interesting when that blows up.

I get that NOW is down -17% on GM misses and a tad high valuation for the uncertainty of terminal value, but why the rest of the software sector, that seems like very specific NOW problems? To me it also looks like the payments sector is attached to this as well, as if someone is liquidating a portfolio of high margin asset light businesses.

If every software earnings call leads to IGV losing 5%, maybe some software stocks get to P/E's of 1 or 2 in 3-4 weeks? Does someone understand whats so bad about NOW's report?

Congrats @Saluki

Half of SpaceX is xAI and the models in general were meant with that. SpaceX is of course Musk's holy cow that will be worth tenth of trillions of dollars in the future

Yes. Especially since all 3 are commoditized already. But thanks for bringing the selling part up, i didn't have that on my radar. It makes the situation even worse.

How many americans have lost their lives or got injured? Still winning? What will the economy look like when oil goes to 150$ and stays there? What about food prices that increase because of fertilizer prices going up because of the war? What about all the other consequences? Still winning? *EDIT* I only see losers in this, outside the insiders in the white house that do their trades and profit immensly.

This is about war, nobody is winning here. Trump has started it btw and until now nothing good has come out of it. We can talk again if the US is finally putting boots on the ground and do whats good for the people in Iran. But i doubt that was ever on his mind.

Food prices will go up, because 30% of fertilizers/urea comes from the middle east. Its 35-50% of the input price of corn and wheat. Let this prolong 3 months and gemini is giving me estimates of CPI going up 2-4% from this alone.

Yes, i think 200$ is the number

There are tests for this, and yes it gets smarter but at least in the latest tests they are far away from humans. The problem with benchmarks is also that a lot can be fed back into the models as feedback and they are than just getting better in the benchmark but not in the real world. But this is a test that is not pre-learnable because its about learning itself, the arc-agi-3 test: Participant Score (approx.) Humans 100% Gemini 3.1 Pro 0.4% Gemma 4 (31B) ~0.30% (est.) GPT-5.4 0.26% Claude 4.6 Opus 0.5% And just a note: Gemma 4 is an open source model just released this month that runs on local hardware!

Maybe move this thread somewhere where its less visible and one is not tempted to click on it on a daily basis?

Look if i were Iran i would stay at my max demands. They have the upper hand, because they know that Trump won't get boots on the ground. They will get everything they want. The US is even too frightend to get their ships into the Straight. Don't think Trump ever had to make a deal with terrorists that don't care about their economy. They only care about staying in power and destruction of Israel/USA long term.

Does anybody think this thing ends this weekend, or do we see a major escalation again?

OpenAI and Anthropic are toast long term: If locally run open source models are already good now, what will they look like in 5 years?