frommi

what's your thesis on CHRW? Seems like a good company but at an expensive price I would say it was not cheaper in the last 10 years :). But what do i know, i am a cloner. ;D

I don`t know, the business has grown while the stock has gone nowhere in the last 10 years. Sold JNJ today and bought more NTT.

If you don't mind my asking, why NTT and not DCM? NTT looked cheaper to me, and i get a growing cloud business that offsets the shrinking mobile/voice business. That was my thought, but its possible that i am wrong :).

One of my biggest mistakes was daytrading from 2003-2007. Lost around 2-3 years of expenses. I traded everything, futures, options, KO certificates, CFDs. I had a lucky start with some good runs, but lost all of it soon after and some more in the next years. It was like casino gambling, i think i made some banksters rich. ;D

Bought CHRW and stocked up on NTT.

Look at the poll its 50/50, and since nobody can look into the future you won`t find a 100% sure answer. But i can throw in a totally different approach to finding the answer, but i am not sure if it will help you. When you believe in Elliottwave Analysis (comes from behavioural finance/psychology) the last decade was a simple ABC-correction and we are indeed in a new secular impulsive bull wave. But because monetizing on that approach is not easy, i won`t rely on that. :)

No they are in their own league. :)

I am your age, happily married and owner of a small software-consulting-company. Half of your networth. In the years mentioned capital flowed into gold, because of negative real cash yields. For money there is currently no real alternative asset class to stocks, cash looses to inflation, gold is above its inflation adjusted average price and bond yields are much too low to be an alternative. But the thing is, when you invest bottom-up and not top-down every piece of macro information is noise in the wind. Look at 1999 when the market was really overvalued, from 2000-2002 cheap stocks outperformed the market big time, so it is probably very good for cheap stocks if the broad market is really overvalued. :)

Its totally useless because my holdings are undervalued. What would bother me is if a recession is on its way, but currently there is no sign of it on the wall. Is this still your capital allocation? 22% Fairfax, which is fully hedged 5% Gold (who knows? just in case!) 36,5% other long positions 36,5% short positions Then i don`t wonder why you are so convinced that the market is overvalued. But you should make a reality check if that is a wise allocation of capital going forward. As Tepper said, "i am only worried that the long/short guys are not long enough". ;D

Those opportunities don`t come often along, so just take it as Kraven said. Its possible that your boss won`t give you another chance in your carrier when you pass on that one. When you like equity investing so much, just do it at home with your own money or perhaps when you have time in your job. Its never wrong to get more knowledge, even when its boring on first sight.

I would say be prepared for a rise in rates, but don`t rely on it. Avoid REITs, long term bonds and stocks with a huge debt load? Probably mix in some banks and insurance companies. :)

Hm i think its not a good idea to value it on pure earnings. It sounds as its easily replicable especially now when all financials are public and it has so much publicity. So you have perhaps 1 or 2 years until someone steps in and beats down the margins or takes customers of you. And it needs active work, even if he says its not much time necessary. I would say around 2 years profits could be a fair price (130k), so i would pay 1 year profits or 65k. But in reality i have no clue. ;D ;D

I agree with you and Eric on this one, but what is extremly overvalued in your eyes? I currently would sell my "premium" holdings like KO or JNJ at 50% overvaluation, but i am not sure if this is too low. And i want to think about that before it happens, because i know that i would trick myself when that limit is reached and i am not prepared.

I don`t know if it helps, but here is a 130-year chart of 10y treasury yields. http://www.multpl.com/interest-rate/

0%, but i have a monthly cashflow from my job :)