frommi

Yes and its in full action mode already. I dont see the off-ramp for this anymore. Iran's leadership is with the back to the wall and they will do anything now to increase oil prices until Trump surrenders, which he will not do. In fact i think this attack was a huge mistake and played directly into the cards of Iran's leadership.

Since they already bombed it and taken out all military defense, the next logical step is to take over Kharg island with the marines that are on their way. Than the US will probably try to use that as leverage in talks.

Thx for bringing it up, i have to dig deeper. EDIT: Looked at it, they have quite different reporting than the other CSU businesses and buy back shares at a 6% fcf yield, i am not sure how deep the CSU culture is there. Or their TAM is very limited. For now i will just observe. Recurring revenue is also very low, this looks more like a consulting company to me.

13% in CSU, 5% in LMN and 2% in TOI. TOI is lowest because i don't like the complexity of all the stuff and that they are already levered 2x. (and i was not able to buy more at a 5% fcf yield) CSU is the biggest because it is also the safest in my mind with its 800 sub-businesses. 5% LMN because thats my limit of how big i go for not-so-diversified businesses, but i think it has the biggest runway because of size and how they do their aquisitions and they have no debt right now.

Its the first time that i think that i can hold a stock for the very very long time, because they do value investing much more efficient and with a much higher CAGR than i could ever do it.

Changed my software basket after learning more, sold Wolters Kluwer and Factset and added to LMN and TOI. My software basket which is 20% of my networth now is only CSU, TOI and LMN.

Your chart would convince me to sell FFH to buy even more CSU, not the other way around.

Put options on oil majors is probably the biggest contrarian idea i can think of at the moment.

sold out of CNQ and bought Cellnex

Sold out of Scandinavian Tobacco Group, results are again a pretty bad, same as outlook. Somehow i still managed to not lose money outside of opportunity cost.

sold some CNQ and SILA to buy Edenred

I get the impression that Trump put the middle east on fire and now it spreads and he is not able to put the fire out anymore.

For reading/querying the data that is fine, but writing to it is a completly different story.

Weekend oil prices point to a +10% gap.

Most of the oil from that region goes to asia, how can the release of the US reserves (which are only at 60%) even help? (and it would be a small amount compare to what is blocked in the strait) It looks like we see a pretty long blockage of the strait without US troops on the ground, i doubt this is over on monday or tuesday.

Funnily i think its the opposite the real ones doomed are the hyperscalers and the biggest beneficiaries are the capex light software businesses that profit from the infrastructure laid and collect a royalty with their AI enabled software. Every software vendor where i listened to the calls can switch the LLM's with a click and gets paid by usage. OpenAI is already struggling, burning money and losing paying customers. 10 years from now compute will be very cheap because of the massive over-building of capacity right now. Dumping all your FCF into low ROI investments will likely have a price, ie valuation compression. That will hit the whole index because all the big trillion dollar companies are in this game and they make up 30-40% of the indices. Deprecation will go up a lot next year for the hyperscalers and forward, surpressing earnings.

And a more stupid trade, bought SPY and QQQ puts to cover my portfolio for the next 2 months. Maybe this is the year of the put. Reduced my NCAV portfolio to have the money for all the trades, the quality, return and discount has degraded over the last 1-2 years.

Bought some topicus.

And since the blackout period just ended i am pretty sure there will be more buying the next 1-2 days, at least i would be surprised if thats not the case.

Maybe, but it is not visible in the numbers. Its one of the cheapest software companies at a P/E of 11, especially since they are still growing while paying a 4% dividend. This is also a dividend aristrocrat, which there are not many in the EU. Insiders are also buying, so it was not a hard decision for me. Listen to the conference call from yesterday, they adressed all threats.

Listened to the earnings call of Wolters Kluwer this morning and it is the same. They have the AI tools, historical data and can change between models on the fly. While expanding margins and getting more features to customers without employing more people. And they trade for a P/E of 11 while growing currency neutral EPS by 9%. Pricing model just moves from seat based to usage based over time. And what becomes clearer is that without the human in the loop none of the models work in a professional environment and that is unlikely to change.

Sold WPC to buy Wolters Kluwer.

I would also care about my fund when i can get 1.5%+20%

When you like employees that make shit up >50% of the time, go for agentic AI . Recent benchmarks (like OpenAI's SimpleQA) specifically target "real-world" facts that are difficult or obscure. When faced with these: Top-Tier Models (GPT-4o, Claude 3.5): Correct only about 38% to 40% of the time. The rest of the responses are either "I don't know" or confident hallucinations. Reasoning Models (o1, o3): Perform better (roughly 60%+ accuracy) because they "double-check" their internal logic, but they still hallucinate on roughly 1 in 3 difficult factual questions. And this is embedded in the way the models are created, that doesnt get better from model to model.