frommi

Sold all DAX puts and bought starter positions in SYF,TAP,MSM,WHG and more OXY,FAST,KIM,KMI

Bought back calls on TSLA and NFLX with a little profit. I expect that Musk has massaged the Q3 numbers, will run a huge show tomorrow and i don`t want to be in front of a short squeeze. And my shorting window ends in 3 days, so i am slowly preparing to go to 100% long again for the next 6 months.

Your question implies that you are looking for confirming evidence to feed your confirmation bias. Better ask in what type of environment you don`t want to own any financials and how likely it is that this will happen over the next 3-5 years.

FAST

http://www.joelstevens.net/ (or was that smiley supposed to be a wink and you already knew that and were being ironic?) No. Thanks!

Thanks! Was a good read, maybe you should start a blog with all the content you are producing? :)

Sold out of PBSV, bought more of D,SPG and IBM. But only because i reached my personal position size limit for KMI, SKT, BTI, PM and MO. I am down to 4% in netnets now and the rest is in defensive dividend growth stocks. I am still hedged with DAX puts and short call spreads on TSLA and NFLX.

I think this is the key here. Since depreciation lags capex by at least one year, earnings of capital intensive businesses are overstated, because they have to reinvest more than deprication in the future to maintain the status quo.

I own MO,PM,BTI and IMBBY. All of them pay out a huge amount of their earnings because they need so little capital to reinvest into the business. PM has maybe gone a bit far with their latest increase, but as long as the currency crisis doesn`t get worse i think they can get manage that. The next 1 or 2 years will probably see lower dividend increases. PM is a bet on a weaker dollar long term. MO is probably the safest bet right now, at least if JUUL sees more regulation going forward.

He is pretty unlucky right now, but i can imagine that he makes a comeback sometime over the next 1-2 years. The market was very irrational on the short side over the past 3-6 months. Nearly every stock with a high short interest has gone up a lot. Maybe some of the last short hedgefunds are in liquidation? Really looks like the last leg up before the meltdown.

Sold CPB, reached my estimated fair value and i really don`t like the plans to sell units to reduce debt because that probably means a take-over is out of the cards. Bought XOM,OXY and KMI.

Rebought HKG:0398 Oriental Watch Holdings, Netnet with >60% upside, P/E<9, pays 23 Cents dividend at the end of the month. (10%) Shareholder friendly and has already turned around last year through cost cutting. Value is mainly in cash and inventory (luxury watches, pretty stable in value). Also some hidden value in Real estate. There was a VIC writeup back in 2015.

Added to my TSLA bet with selling 420$ calls jan2020 and buying 500$ calls as a short squeeze protection. I will now make money regardless if TSLA goes private @420$ or the stock just tanks. Under 200$ my put spreads will multiply in value. Only case to lose money is now if TSLA magically trades above 435$ in 2020.

Bought some MXP and EUR futures and hedged the rest of my $ exposure back to €. Currency exposure is now 40% MXN, 60% € (home currency). Sold TYO:9885 and TYO:6466, while both still have a discount to NCAV (40-50% upside) i felt that a similar upside in a REIT is a better bet. So i bought more KIM and a little bit more of OXY.

Yes, made around 8% on that trade.

sold most of my MXP futures and pulled the stop for the remaining futures pretty close to the current level. While still the best currency to own according to my system, i want to protect my gains. Maybe i reenter after a larger pullback. Bought more IBM, SPG, KMI.

Looks like we have a similar strategy. :) Bought all the names you mentioned in the last 2 months and Imperial Brands,WBA,T,MDP,WPP,HSY,PEP,CHD,CPB,GIS,CLX. I realized i can`t hold anything forever, so i finally sold VFC and created a new rule to sell if something in my dividend growth portfolio is >25% overvalued, bought more KMI,IBM and DDR with the money.

I think where AI can really be helpful is to predict earnings and then you can use these to build better value portfolios. If you feed an AI with the noise of the markets you will get all types of correlations that don`t hold up in reality. I read an article not long ago on this where they reduced the analysts error rate on earnings projections from 40% to 20%. I can imagine that when you use additional data like credit card information you can get really good earnings forecasts. Personally i wouldn`t trust an AI black box and i am 100% sure that i would leave that approach when the first larger drawdown happens. Its really hard to determine if you just have a "normal" drawdown or if the model has stopped working, so in the end the human will always be the weak link in this regardless of how automated the whole approach is.

I can`t really see how taking out a middleman (that operates at full scale) like CVS or a health insurance with a 3-4% net profit margin changes anything. To me it looks like the pure costs that doctors/hospitals and the pharma industry charge in the US are extraordinary high compared to other countries. The new venture looks like additional costs for BRK/JPM/AMZN to the benefit of its workers, at least until they operate at full scale. Am i missing something?

Why do you think that something like KIM doesn`t compound as fast as BRK? BRK bookvalue growth was around 10% (without tax reform) over the last decade, with a 6.4% dividend yield KIM just has to grow NOI/dividends by 3.6% to match that. Don`t you think that is a pretty low hurdle?

Based on what i know longevity has nothing to do with healthcare costs, its much more a factor of what you eat, drink, smoke and how much you use your body. No drug in the world will deliver what not smoking and drinking, eating healthy and running/weightlifting 2-3 times a week does for you. And the richer you are the more you know and care about that, its not even about the money directly.

DDR common and calls, spinoff in July, same playbook as SRC. "New DDR" is valued similar as BRX right now, which is already damn cheap, but the assets that are spinned are surely not completly worthless.

I am sorry to hear your story and hope you come back refreshed after this has been settled. Can`t you just show your brokerage statements to document your inactivity? I can imagine that these documents are much better at convincing a judge than some online forum posts. And when they show just a handful of stocks i can`t imagine that someone believes that it is a fulltime job to research these.

Thanks for your post! I get paid 5% (interest rate difference between USD and MXN) while waiting for the revaluation with the futures (this is embedded in future prices), so i have time on my side. And because the spread between 10y (inflation expectations) and cash in MXN is zero right now it is very unlikely that inflation/currency devaluation destroy my returns here. Thats what this currency system is all about. But if the spread widens it might be that the system will move me to another currency. I only do this with currencies that have inflation rates below 10%, so MXN is close to this barrier as well. Long term this system has backtested with 5-7% annual returns and since i do this with futures it is on top of every thing else, its literally free alpha. I came to this system while searching for ways to cheaply hedge my currency exposure because i had huge currency losses over the last year that were completly avoidable using this system. If in 3 years i come to the conclusion that it doesn`t work for me, thats fine, at least i tried. But over the last 6 months it has worked as expected.

Seems dangerous! I live in Mexico and we are about to elect a new president and part of congress. The candidate that’s leading (by a lot!) is clearly socialist and against market systems. This doesn’t mean that if he wins he is going to nationalize private companies or move against industry, nor that congress will approve such decisions, but he may control an important part of congress and indeed make some moves against free markets. The peso is reflecting some of these fears and if I were to bet (I’m not), I would bet against the peso! I base my investment decisions on facts, not on news or emotions. But hey, that makes a market. Maybe i am wrong.