frommi

Nobody will do something military about it. This will just mean countries trade more with Iran in some way or the other as a concession to get oil. Very short-sightened. And the high oil prices just benefit Russia and Iran while they trade freely with China. (where they get the next round of weapons in exchange for oil) Btw. europe needs LNG in October, doubt Trump will be in force that long when oil prices stay high.

started buying GPN and FISV

Probably better than what i have done since then, because i really had no clue what i was doing in 2008. Not sure if i have a clue now and want to get better at holding for longer, but at some point i always see better returns elsewhere and switch over. Dont know maybe i am just not that patient, but when i look at my past sell decisions it was often a good idea to sell, though not always. I sold AVGO in 2019, so much to that.

Than why not just buy and hold an equal weight etf, collect your 10% with much less risk and call it a day?

While i often hear these stories, FFH from 2000 to today was still just a 12% annual return? I mean its great, especially since its tax advantaged, but its also not as profitable as you describe it?

Is the drawdown in these companies really just because of the stablecoin chatter? Or is it that fear of Apple and Google pay taking over all payment processing on all sides? (however that should work)

But over time we will feel it also because its the base for all plastic and the whole transportation sector. And than it trickles down into services. Whats interesting to me is that prices were even a bit higher in the beginning of 2008 and that was also a pretty sharp rise, even though it was demand driven and not supply. But interest rates at that time have gone down not up, because the economy was already in recession mode. We have a pretty similar situation right now, even if this time a banking crisis is unlikely. But since all the risky lending is now in private credit, maybe we will see a big hit from there? The cracks are already there.

Elon is so good at this game of selling equity to investors, when you see that SpaceX/xAI will probably be the first to capitalize on this IPO wave and even secured the right to be in the S&P 500 at a very high valuation even though they dont meet the float requirements. That secures that there will be enough stupid buyers for this. Being in the large index with very little float is probably the only reason Tesla is still very expensive.

We can agree that predicting macro is speculation, but seeing macro factors move in the investors favor and the market has ignored it to that point is investing in my view. Its like having insider information or shooting fish in a barrel. I might be wrong on this, but look at MDLZ, the market has completly ignored that cocoa prices have crashed because they are still hedged on high prices, but give it one year and it will be obvious to anyone that it is too cheap right now.

Dont get me wrong, i dont think i can predict macro. But Buffett and Munger often talk about shooting fish in a barrel. Fairfax in 2021 was that fish, because interest rates had already gone up a lot and it was very clear that Fairfax will profit from that and Fairfax was still very cheap. That was also when Prem was betting big on it. But there were also a lot of people on this board that thought CHTR was good value at 400$ complety ignoring how high interest rates and higher CAPEX will eat into their FCF. To survive the stagflation i think you need these components 1) Clean balance sheet with very little debt (or at least fixed interest for a long time, but better there is not a lot) 2) CPI linked revenue or a lot of pricing power 3) High margins or very little commodity linked costs. 4) low price to cashflow (because when discountrates go up, expensive stocks will get hurt the most) I think software businesses, stock exchanges or Sky Harbor fit very nicely into this scheme and i think these businesses will do fine regardless of the macro environment. But who knows maybe i am wrong on that also. EDIT: NCAV stocks should also do fine, because when interest rates go up they earn more interest on the cash piles. (at least the ones that have a cash pile)

But what if that value was only value when the macro prices changed? What if Fairfax was only at 0.6x bookvalue because interest rates were very low and if they stayed low it would have been the fair value for Fairfax? With HSY its even more obvious, because their COGS has gone up a lot that year, if cocoa prices stayed that high maybe HSY was at fair value at 140$? Meta is a different story, but if they had continued plowing all their money into the Metaverse maybe than even Meta was at fair value?

You bought HSY when cocoa prices skyrocketed and HSY price dropped because of that, wasn't that also a macro bet that cocoa prices will come down again? Or FFH when interest rates were ramping up like crazy in 2021? If we like it or not, macro has a profound impact on security prices and ignoring it is fine if you know it. But not knowing that you do it and than wondering why the stock price doesnt move your way is not smart? For example a lot of investors think that REIT's or Utils or Dividend stocks in general are cheap right now, but thats only because they compare the prices to when 10y bond yields were 1%. So when you buy them you bet that interest rates go back down. Isn't that a huge macro bet?

selling my Utils and REIT's to buy more CSU and Adobe.

I think a lot of people miss this part of AI, free tools won't exist forever, at some point someone has to foot the compute bill. I even think that OpenAI doesnt have a business model at all, i doubt they really know how to make money out of what they created.

It doesnt look cheap on the surface, but it trades at a FCF yield of 6.5% when you subtract SBC. For a high quality business that will grow 20% + this year without using a lot of capital it looks very cheap. Also very likely a 5%+ dividend.

Regarding FOUR the only thing i found was that the borrow rate was increased, so maybe a little short squeeze? Has anyone looked at Adyen? To me it looks like the disruptor with the lowest take rate in the sector, growing double digits with a large cash balance. But its also sold down with the pack. Looking some years out, maybe this is the smartest bet in the sector?

I have some risk guidelines, dont worry. Will never go above 40% in any one industry . But its tempting.

Bought more OTCM, now a 5% position. Looks like shooting fish in a barrel.

Bring it on!!! I am just at 17% software but when this hype cycle continues by the end of the year i am 80% in software stocks.

Sold some REIT's like NNN, EPRT, BYG and bought more NOMD,AMCR, VSNT and a new position in OTCM.

The problem with this all weather approach of chosing different assets like bonds or gold is that in a real crisis like 2008 or even last week all correlation go to 1 and everything goes down together because of people seeking liquidity. I tested all kinds of methods of hedging, puts on indices, puts on single stocks, gold+bonds, cash, naked shorting futures, naked shorting stocks. The last two methods fell out pretty easily because if the market moves against you your hedge gets bigger which is never a good thing. You want your exposure to get smaller when you are wrong. Puts on single stocks didnt work because the good shorts already have high IV, its all baked into the option price. And typically they arent a good hedge either because they dont necessarily move with the market. Cash also reduces your returns, so there is not that much difference to systematically buying puts. But like Viking mentioned the hard part is when to sell the hedge or when to get back in. I think one needs hard rules for this, like VIX>50 or after a 20% drawdown, or else there is the risk that one never gets back in. With puts there is also the danger of bleeding out over time if you for example always sell after a 50% gain but your puts expire worthless from time to time the whole endeavour will be loss making because you have to be right 66% of the time just to stay flat which is nearly impossible over the long run on the short side. Your puts have to be multibaggers to carry the losses. I see myself also as retired even if i still work part time, so my risk appetite is not that high, but at the same time i want good returns which needs a balance between offence and defense.

Agree, for most people doing nothing is the right call. I am afraid that someday 1929-1933 repeats so i hedge from time to time, especially since it helps me stay fully invested. Over the past 10 years the hedging has reduced my returns by ~-1%/year. I had two great years in 2015 and 2018 where the puts paid off, but after those a lot of loss-years with the hedges. What i typically do is buy Dec Put options on the DAX index at the end of april ( Sell in may ), 5% out of the money and a 5% position. Its held until end of october or until its a 5-bagger (which happens at a 20% drawdown). This of course missed the covid crash, because it happened in march . This moves a possible 5% return in a good year to a 25% win in a bad year. Often the puts still have residual value at the end of october, so even when the crash doesnt happen, not all is lost. Else when i think the market is truly ripe for a correction and my market timing signals are flashing red i also buy puts on other indices, but typically smaller positions. (1-2% of the portfolio) So in the long run the hedging doesnt really add value outside of the psychological effects. (And of course you feel like a hero when the crash really happens, but dumb when not

I dont think it has to do with being smart, it has more to do with having the time and desire to broaden the circle of competence. With AI its so easy now to pick apart and understand every business you want. Doesnt mean everything will be investable, i for myself will probably never invest in something like Tesla or MSTR. But over the past 15 years i never had a year where i didnt find something that is cheap enough to beat cash by a longslide. When you are managing several billions, that can be a reason to be constrained. And btw. there are more good businesses on sale than ever before as far as my list is trustworthy. BRK is not one of them

Looks like that was not that stupid . Sold out for a 3 x bagger and bought more CLNX, LON:DOM, SKYH.

Aren't you afraid that maybe someday the canadian RE bubble implodes? They also all trade at peak valuations?