frommi

You have around 3-5k fixed annual expenses for running a gmbh which makes it only feasable for large accounts. And transferring assets to the GmbH itself triggers a sell event so you have to pay taxes. So when you are small its too expensive, when you are large you better only do it if you dont have unrealized gains. And it is possible that when you need the money you pay a lot more than 25%.

I am 70% sure that short term interest rates have peaked (for the next 2-3 years), because that is the probability for a recession in the next 12 months right now according to my indicators. And you see it already in the inflation data, its coming down m/m. I am pretty sure some time in the future the deflation ghosts will come back and the FED will cut interest rates in panic. The bond market is telling that (yield curve) and its hard to believe the bond market is wrong, because it rarely is.

150$ TSLA puts DEC23.

bought more BTI and made it the second largest position (14%) after FFH (27%). Tobacco now at 40% of my portfolio.

more FFH

bought some CVS

@RedLion Yes, good idea. My problem is that this has tax implications because you take a huge loss on one leg. Germany is a weird land when it comes to taxes on capital gains and you can only deduct a fixed sum of option losses. Finalized my longer term put positions (dec23) on DAX,MDAX and SPY, which now make up 6% of my portfolio. Should be enough to protect against a large drop. Also bought more BATS.

Started selling some Posco after it popped 100% from the lows 6 month ago.

More Puts on DAX,MDAX,S&P500. Pretty close to 5% of portfolio value now, i think i maybe increase it to 6% this week, but that should be enough to protect my portfolio against a larger drop in the indices for the summer. And yes i do this since 2014, buy dec puts over summer, because on average every 5.-6. summer we get a 20% drop. Last time it worked was in 2015, so the market is ripe for it.

Whats the moat here? In 5 years a lot of companies will have these type of language models, but it requires a lot of capital to run because computing hours are expensive. Maybe shorting some companies is successful as an approach, but its a low return endeavour and very dangerous. I doubt that GOOG or MSFT will ever really make money of it. But of course when first playing around with it i was fascinated, too.

BTI,PM,MO,IMB,Karelia Tobacco

I see my whole nicotine/tobacco basket as an incredibly capital light business, in fact they return 80% of the money earned as dividends/buybacks. I studied returns in inflationary periods and these were the best performing stocks in these times. Maybe this time is different i dont know. Holding them since some time now, so maybe i am just wrong, or the market simply still hasnt come to the same conclusion as i did. Brokers like IBKR or OTCM (should have held onto this one) are also capital light. FAST, SPGI, MCO are also in this bucket, but not cheap at the moment.

36% Tobacco: 9.6% BTI 8.5% PM 6.8% MO 6.8% IMB 4.4% Karelia Tobacco 26.4% FFH 14% Net-nets: 4% GIGM, 2.5% MSN, Rest are smaller positions. 6% REIT's: 3.2% EPRT 1.5% AMT 1.5% SRC 5.6% CMCSA 4% PKX (Posco) 3.6% SPY & DAX long term put options Putting the list together was interesting, thought my FFH position is bigger. Looks like i can buy some more

What are your thoughts on OZK at the moment? They also look pretty solid on Burry's chart and had pretty remarkable shareholder returns in the past.

I know macro is pretty much ignored in this forum, but is nobody afraid that we see a recession in the next 6-12 months? My systems tell me there is a >70% chance for that and i doubt that bank stocks bottom before we even have seen the start of the recession. I stay far away from banks for now because cyclical stocks tend to look very cheap at the top of the cycle. If you really want to dabble here i would just buy quality, at least thats the lesson i took from previous crisis.

The volume decline last year was just downtrading, look at IMB, their volumes have gone up +2% in the US last year. I doubt that this goes on for long, since that was because of inflation and that is already cooling.

Thats 2-3 years out and will start very slowly. Its not even clear if HNB will be a success in the US. Declining customer base is nothing new and has not stopped Altria from being the best performing stock for a very long time. Missteps were made by the old CEO, he is replaced already.

That is not in my circle of competence, i always think that NY real estate is in a bubble

But since you dont like it i pick Karelia Tobacco as my pick of the year . See Investment Ideas. GIGM is statistically also a good bet, but its possible that it wont be the best performer at year end, because you have to sell into price spikes.

Who cares about revenues? Latest Altria Q3 numbers: (and it was a horrible year with 9% volume declines) Total cigarettes 64,971 71,370 (9.0) % Revenues net of excise taxes $ 13,731 $ 13,655 Reported OCI $ 8,112 $ 7,901 2.7 % $ Add in share buybacks and you have 4% EPS growth in a very bad year with 9% volume declines. These 9% volume declines are not the long term average and are just that high because smokers have downtraded to cheaper cigarettes. That will normalize and Altria will go back to 7-9% EPS growth. Should trade back to a P/E of 15 someday. They also have a lever to pull when they sell their BUD stake.

S&P500 future puts. and more Karelia Tobacco

I am surely not a market wizard, but when you already created 10% alpha in 1 week, putting 3-4% into S&P500 puts for protection in a time where valuations are very high has nothing to do with market timing, just with prudent portfolio management.

Maybe i am completly of the marks, but most equities here are not cheap. When you look at big businesses in the S&P 500 they still trade at fat multiples. That doesnt look like a bottom. And while a lot of people after the latest moves think the bottom is in, i really doubt it. We didnt have a real panic move yet. Can imagine it happens soon. Biggest downmoves in the markets happened always after the FED has cut rates not before. I have a simple system based on yield curve, inflation rates and unemployment rates that has 12 month recession probabilities at 60% right now, which is a new high. An uptick in unemployment rates next report and it has a 3/3 risk off signal, meaning you are better off hedging or going out of the market. This has not happened since 2008. So be careful, a drawdown like in 2002 is possible. The current situation is very comparable to the end of 2001, you had the tech bust, retouch of 200 day average line and still high valuations. In the current market i wouldnt touch anything that is not recession resistant. But thats just my opinion, will also probably add hedges to my portfolio soon, since i am already up so much for the year that i can easily afford it.

https://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate/table/by-year True, but interest rates were not. I except inflation to come down a lot this year, long term yields are signaling this since october (gone down from 4%->3.5% already)

Maybe, but they did very well between 1995 and 2007 where we had inflation of 4-5%. And when we get a recession and long term yields go down these REIT's will probably outperform bonds over 2-3 years. I wouldnt use Realty income in that sector because its already too big and they need big aquisitions to move the needle. But a small underlevered REIT like EPRT that has a great model is where i want to be. Stable predictable cashflows and safe dividends that can be reinvested.