dealraker

Somehow my family made well over 100 times their money with Norfolk long before PSR came along. But what the hell, here's something that will really infuriate you. https://rsexpress.com/precision-scheduled-railroading/

Thanks LC.

Roaring back. Do believe I read and listened to CSX state "We were understaffed and lost business." BNSF has the best model and the best management in my view. https://seekingalpha.com/news/4058690-union-pacific-loses-major-intermodal-contract-rival

Some forty years ago I began to acknowledge my own false bravado as a sustainable investment model. For me, as opposed to Parsad (who I both admire and support as to his view here), I'm unable to heavily overweight new positions as to my total investments particularly when it involves selling in a taxable account and paying massive tax. I did, and it largely came from processing Parsad's message to me, wipe out my retirement account and go to a more condensed portfolio. The outcome? Simply fantastic. But what I am getting to is I think overall the China game is false bravado. It is fine that Charlie Munger could go here, but few are like he was. One of my insights as to this is reading British/English history, particularly the Wars of the Roses era of absolute gyrating politics, the behavior of those taking sides and simply how fragile both beliefs and bravo was. One shout in the field during crisis and everybody ran...and I mean everybody. I got out of debt and the insurance business in 1994 and I pledged on my knees to my inner self never to do it again. "It" involved getting to know myself. After acknowledging to myself who I am? Amazing stuff came. Best with China is to know yourself most of all. Who are you and what are you going to do with all the mouthing, threats, and crazy beliefs surely coming as to it all. That said, I'll wager a boom upwards at some point too. Castanza too though has a valid point that the US jargon is in game too. That jargon is going to ratchet up intermittently even if those chanting are in business and making money there. Count on it. Life is great...if you can stand it!

In 1999 one of my cousins in the builders supply/millwork business went with me to the Berkshire annual meeting. Jerry just delighted in a very upbeat way in reading and watching Charlie Munger. It was so special that after the meeting Munger was standing behind a table at the jewelry area (so too was Buffett) and I watched Jerry go up to meet him. The two talked for several minutes. So if you think Munger is all down and unhappy maybe it is a lack of connection to what makes some people thrive. I'll sit on the porch of an old farmhouse on Sunday afternoon soon and I'm going to remember to ask Jerry what he so much enjoyed during that discussion with Munger--- because I've not seen Jerry so giddy ever as he was after that interaction with CM!

Very interesting comment. So you think a guy with the IQ and brilliance of Munger is supposed to sit around being happy? I live with two somewhat autistic people (my wife and one of many nephews) who are very fulfilled but "happy" isn't one of their dominating moods...maybe somewhat affected by one of them having a 160 IQ. Ever heard about Charlie's lakehouses at Star Island? There are thee of them and I do believe Mr. Munger physically built a lot of it all.

I had my North Carolina General Contractors License before I finished grad school and built my house here on the waterfront in 1980. I have added to it a couple of times since and it is plenty big at 2600 sq ft and a full basement. We own 30 acres across the street and with my nephew (who will inherit this house) we own half of another almost 250 acres. The big tract across the street has an old house and trails on it with about 1/3 mile of waterfront. The house we live in is very much a reflection of the chill-out life we've chosen, it is white cedar with no stain or paint, with high end windows and doors (so we don't have to mess with them over time), wood decks, outdoor (under a roof) pool table, and "tree house" deck right next to the water about 25 feet above the water where I am most of the time in the April to November good weather. It faces south so we are warm in the winter and get the terrific southwest wind in the summer. Everything in the house is original, bathrooms and all else very dated but functional. They'll likely never change although we've discussed a walk in shower which for some reason we didn't do. 3 bedrooms and 3 baths, a sort of terrific kitchen and den areas. I broke the building code and restrictions building the house (my cousins developed this property so it was kind of the fun discussion they often embarrassed me with) by being 45 feet from the water (code is 75 feet) but I left all the trees so you can barely see the house from the water. An Air Nautique wakeboard boat with a boat ramp and Marshall 22 Catboat sits year round at the dock. Angela and I use the boats a bunch, we both wakeboard and generally motor (Kubota 3 cylinder) the Catboat out to dinner and such. Great neighbors mostly our age or about. Life...NC style. Had a beach sound front home for years and the happiest day of my life was when the deed was no longer in my name!

Angela unfortunately has both an ear infection and bronchitis, bad bronchitis, so our "trip" is less active than we'd hoped. We are out on Bald Head Island and also spending three additional nights in Southport, NC. We do a trip about every six weeks where we stay somewhere for a few days to a couple of weeks. Not all are far away or in other countries though. This guy https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/greensboro/name/marshall-johnson-obituary?id=16271917 as GFP states, operated in Greensboro, NC and oh lordy what a life he had as far as investing given it was truly off-beat and unique. But he had all his clients in Berkshire early on. Often it is hard for people to grasp that there are those around you, you'll likely not know them, who have owned stocks like Berkshire for a long time. Marshall Johnson ran McDaniel Lewis and Co (McDaniel Lewis, the man, was Marshall's father-in-law) and I worked for him for two years until others convinced me to take a flyer into the insurance business. Marshall made a market in smaller southeast otc banks and insurance companies. For instance, while I was there as I've written before, one day I go in and Marshall says, "Charlie, we need to immediately update the spread sheet for First Citizens NC as that 'crackerjack' Warren Buffett has bought a slug of FCNCA from High Point (NC) Bank and Trust at half of book value." Marshall also represented High Point Bank and Trust and he has brokered that deal. So on an electric typewriter using a lot of white-out I updated the spread sheet on legal paper size for FCNCA. By the way there was also First Citizens SC, a completely separate bank, run and controlled by the same Holding family. FCNCA today continues to thrive by the way and I'll bet you a plug nickel Buffett didn't sell all his stock personally. I have no knowledge of that, it is just a guess. So my dad, who played both ways for Duke (his image is on the column of Walace Wade Statium holding the Sugar Bowl) when Duke beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, was the least interested in business man you'd ever meet. He was 20% owner of the local newspaper, other brothers and his mother owned the remaining stock, and he was publisher and editor. (The paper was later sold to the NY Times). Marshall handled my dad's and all his brothers stock investments. Interestingly, all his brothers at one time owned Berkshire stock, but either they or their children sold of course. I do remember most of his brothers (they all outlived dad by years) discussing tax free bonds so that's likely where they went to "make it out of this world" or whatever. I assure you Marshall didn't lead that parade though! Dad died young, Mom died years previously, so Central Carolina Bank and Trust (my mother's family thingy, her father was mayor of Durham, NC) held the stocks in a trust until I was 30 and Berk was one of them. So it is a few years later when I'm working for Marshall, I have stock in Berkshire, and of course I'm clueless as to who Warren Buffett is. Marshall's training me but I'm an off-the-charts extrovert with what you'd describe as hyperactive attention deficit tendencies. The only savior for this is the trust dad set up on Marshall's suggestion...I could only watch and not get my greedy little hand on it. 12 years later? I'm beginning to understand Warren Buffett! And I do get constant credit from my cousins now, those in the builders suppy and millwork, for getting them invested big time in Berkshire by 1990. They were selling the out-of-town builders supply businesses (Lowe's was killing us!) and buying stocks...and Berkshire was about 1/3rd of what they bought. Turned in to being about 3/4 of what they owned. Another interesting point is this. Dad dies in 1975 and both state and federal inheritance taxes are beyond anyone, any of you guys, imagination. On top of that, dad and his brothers also owned 4 radio stations: Cheraw, SC, Benson, NC, Ridgeland, SC, and one other one that for some reason I can't remember right now. All a.m. stations, all lucrative for years after they were bought. But........along comes F.M. stereo radio and....... So dad's estate was $1.2 million in 1975; we paid right around $500,000 in taxes; luckily family lawyers did the estate for free. But by the time the estate was getting settled up the value of our a.m. radio stations was plummeting in a fashion you'd find crazy alarming. In the end two were shut down and the other two sold for about 15% of the value when dad died, the value we were taxed based on. The very same stations I remember hearing dad say, "We paid $35,000 for it and it has a $35,000 net profit each year." Yep huge profits went to losses! F.M. ruled! Rambling. Have a good day. No spell check so pardon what doesn't make sense. So in the end, my brother, sister, step-mom, and I inherited very little....but Marshall's presence was such that all of us kept our stocks and we all ended up doing fabulously because of that decision

They are not $-wise significant. But...in order of significance in my view here's my financial life's major decisions: 1) holding the stocks I inherited from dad and the one from granny Sink. Some haven't done well, one went to basically zero, but overall it was simply crazy good luck. They began in a trust so I had no access for years, plus all those "old people" I knew telling me not to sell my stocks and a family that never sold anything ever. 2) taking AJG stock (wife's idea not to cash out was maybe the best of all decisions). 3) selling Brookfield and about 100 other small stocks to buy land (or parts of land) and to buy the stocks like Joe. While I do have more money coming in than going out Berkshire pays no div and AJG in comparison to value pays little. So to do something I significant I have to first do something else that I'm not particularly comfortable with...but getting better over time. Headed out on a trip on a Boeing airplane. Wish me luck and I probably won't read too much here for a couple of weeks.

Various accounts so I may miss something. Year begun included: Berkshire: inherited 1975, Dad had a whopping 100 A shares which wasn't worth much back then at all. My bro, sis, step-mom and me all got 25 when dad died in 1975. Even after I worked for the broker that sold the stock to dad (and he obsessed over Buffett)...it was at least 12 years (it was in a trust) before I knew much about Warren Buffett. Hyper-active brain dead young man I was. AJG begun 1994 Berk and AJG are 80% or so. This bunch below including what I posted in the initial post quoted above gets it to 96% or so, so another 16%: Coke 1975 Pepsi 1975 Note: every damn body in my area owned these two above back then...and I mean every damn body. Norfolk Southern 1976 I inherited 1/27th of granny Sink's shares and it has now been in the family for 84 years and according to my cousin CPA who is a financial whiz it has compounded at 10 plus percent in these 84 years. I have added to it multiple times including recently below $192 or so. Erie Indemnity I think the year 2004 if I am not mistaken as my former insurance partner uses them in his firm and recommended it Brown and Brown begun as Poe and Brown bought once 1994 Aon 1994 Marsh 1994 CSX late 1990's Canadian National 2003 or so Canadian Pacific about 2011 Mondelez begun as Cadbury in 2000 Tootsie Roll 1988 Markel 1988 Family worked there before beginning their own CPA firm and every damn body in Richmond clammored for Markel stock Lowes early 1990's when they were destroying our builders supply business. Back then we sold carpet, paint, basically everything that Lowes does. Today we are a contractors only builders supply and millwork. We sell via the millwork all over the southeast. Fairfax early 1990's but substantially added to in the last almost 3 years St Joe 2023 or whenever at $36.5 is the largest initial investment I've ever made Think that's it except for a slew of small holdings which include some attained in tiny amounts long-long-long ago. Biggest sale for me ever was the Brookfield bunch. I sold not because I thought I knew something bad, I sold because despite the business and stock dominating my time and mind I simply knew zero. Best riddance in my life regardless of where the stocks go. My mind is free of it and that's what counts most for me.

I trust your investment slices quite regularly!

Let me re-write this: Populism is a threat in my view. Can already written contracts be altered by a president (one past pres did mention this) seeking support? Many of the brokers have their views on this and are constantly publishing on the subject of political, populist, and isolationist movements throughout the world. In the early 2000's Elliott Spitzer, Mr. lawbreaker himself, was one of the most popular people in the US for several years because he attacked the insurance brokers with a vengeance over contingency commissions.

May the stock price drive us all to insanity! Given there ain't much around to buy, we may very well miss the current stock price we incessantly complain about.

I agree with this Greg and have for some time.

Nice Greg.

I missed this post. Superb investing Parsad and your posts are a nice part of my life to read. I'm not and could never be as certain as you are as to buy/sell investment concentration and it would be a disaster for me to try to mimic it. But I do invest using my best skill and my best skill is knowing who is good at what they do as to investing. And you are damn good.

I think you're right. Most everything I write these days has errors...no matter how much time I spend creating it. Drives me nuts! One of those things that creeps up on you with time, or at least on me.

I'll take your portfolio... ....and your age! Any day.

So I'm off on my quick Brk calculation. 12%.

I'm most wanting to hear from Parsad on this year. Gotta be a barn burner for him!

Interestingly my decision in the 1990's to invest with Prem Watsa and Fairfax was somewhat based on valuation but mostly all about reading about the people and the business. I had Berkshire and Markel as the models of course, otherwise nothing would have made much sense or been seen as attractive for investment. Through the years I've thought a little, but not a lot, about some of what Fairfax was doing investment wise and it wasn't something I was interested in nor thought was much of a good idea. But I never lost faith that it would end up all being ok so I stuck around. I do like the long tail insurance business but I don't want a whole bunch of money in it. In the last three years I've steadily added to the position, including last week. But for me, while I read all posted here, I'm just a believer regardless. As I mentioned before, the fact that I got to invest in Hub (the broker) because being a shareholder made me aware of it, was such a massive jolt for me financially--- it simply makes the names Prem/Fairfax something I'm a "lifer" to hold. Nothing but positive association in my head.

For Cramer to be successful in such a show as his he must operate in the short term business news cycle, the news that dominates all business media. I enjoy hearing and reading this sort of thing but I almost never include any of such short term news as an input variable for investment decisions. While I've done almost unbelievably well using published thoughts from several here on COBF as far as investment decisions (Spek, Parsad, Greg, Viking, etc) I find that only Greg (that I know of) thus far is on my timeline as to what determines what/how long to hold investments. But this doesn't stop me from reading all of the board...except crypto which I simply have no interest in.

Angela and I watch Jim regularly because we can keep up on strictly business stuff, things that otherwise I'd be ignorant of and even more aged-out than I already am. Its a delightful thing we enjoy quite a bit. No we don't use it specifically as an investment choice model, but as information about the current happenings in publicly traded entities. Over time I'll admit that I do find his interest and energy to be a good thing to model in life, I see the 95% other side of that with late 60's mental shutdowns and declines.

Unfortunately that's not in their time framewook of analyzing things much like others it is just more short term. It just doesn't exist anywhere at least as far as I know. I basically hang out all the time with a (I'm 69.5 years old) guy who is turning 64 and his father was in the agency business here in my town and he was my partner years ago (when his father wanted him to work else where for a while). The man is crazy good and successful in three towns now. While he's far-far-far from a showoff type he has homes here on my lake and in the local town of substantial value, pays cash....and makes hundreds of thousand of community project donations. So you'd think between the two of us, particularly him at least, that he'd be a whiz at describing and analyzing this sort of business while I'll tell you flat out that he hasn't a clue and doesn't even think about it. He is dynamic man, superb cyclist road and mtn....and he's as straight shooting as they come. I knew him coming out of high school and all I remember is "this guy means business." I have had mutliple business dealings with him, he's blunt. loyal, and beyond honest. He says the big boys call him weekly, sometimes the do a Trojan Horse type of thing where they say they want to discuss this or that and of course the only goal is to buy him out. He has sons in the business, neither very capable (his words) but still he says he plans to run the business until he's out of here. The "until I'm out of here" thing to me implies something on the order of "things must be damn good....and looking damn good for the future." I know nothing about the long term and I'd almost assure you he'd not even know how to talk about it. Day-to-day though.....he's incredibly good at this.

Greg wrote me too... I said, "I've read every word on the forum but like our now gone other Charlie I had nothing to add." Have a good day gfp!