CorpRaider

Well one example might be the lower availability of capital due to lending divestitures/pressures and equity ESG constraints or even just the policy statements of governments seeking to terminate/reduce the use dissuading investments/introducing perceived terminal risk, much like tobacco, resulting in higher cost of capital/expected return resulting in fewer capital projects ergo a higher spot price, but seems like other capture could come about (via carbon credit/tax/regulation regimes or provenance preferences for "lower impact" sources).

I wonder if the industry has changed is going to benefit bigly from regulatory capture (like elaborate carbon capture regs/requirements and structurally higher ROI requirements now due to ESG mandates and/or increased terminal risk) from now on basically like legit "sin" (or perhaps "anti-glamour") stocks.

I was hoping this one would be titled "My Son and the Crypto Genius"

To recycle my Twitter joke: He's going to keep hiking until the "yield farmers" are out there sowing some wheat!

Yeah there has been no inflation of Miller Lite, thankfully.

Sounds like Ross is a true contrarian with the timing there. Pretty sure he's the original guy who put me onto Weller (definitely was someone on here). Thankful for a few great years, but can't find it now. I pretty much stick to four roses stuff now unless my dad finds me some Blanton's.

I run a reasonably large portion of my investments (like 20%) according to a trend following strategy. No real free lunches but assuming that marginal utility/option value of your cash goes up during bear markets (ones that trend...no help in 1987) it seems like a good strategy. That account is down almost 5.4% YTD (very unaudited). Acct has mostly been in bills this year but I took a whipsaw when the S&P popped back up for a minute and had to ride down one month because I only test monthly (was hard not to override). The alpha architect guys have at least one trend-related offering: $VMOT. I'm seeing down 7.25% YTD (but it consists of value and momo underlying funds with trend overlay). I think Meb Faber at Cambria has some trend following ETFs too. I think it's VAMO and GMOM use some trend following signals. Looks like both are up in the range of 5-6% YTD You gotta' be willing to get annoyed at the compounder right tail 100 bagger neversell sermons from the mount during the bull booms tho. haha. I've been thinking of trying out a levered BRK trend following + value strategy. Where have I gone wrong...

You got prime minus a quarter? Thanks I'ma ask for that.

Yeah I'm a crappy son. My parents should be laying the wood to these with their cash in the credit union and whatnot, but I just don't think they could handle the site and I just don't want to deal. I already had to call myself one time after getting locked out and the guy let me in thankfully after I couldn't guess/recall my favorite movie. And I am VERY online. hah.

Hmm penfed looks like prime +.25% on site for lowest advertised rate. I will still probably go with them since it seems like they are easier to deal with. EDIT: Thanks for this discussion everyone (including OP whomst was dunked upon). I should probably wait until after July when all my 0% CC advances that I plowed into $PSTH reverse (IBKR wouldn't let me margin it), but I am feeling some urgency to get this in place before financial conditions tighten further. In any event, this is the kind of line I would probably keep in place for the foreseeable future.

Hmmm, those terms seem quite good based on quick research....an Ohio S&L....took a long time to get...I wouldn't mind having a non-callable LOC at prime or prime - for sure.

Just bought a little tracker/send me proxies position in BF.B/A.

CITI? I'm putting that on Todd. PARA is clearly WEB.

No way a shoe shine boy could navigate treasury direct. haha Yeah thanks pupil, I started thinking about this that's its a zero coupon offering and not so great in that context. Maybe wait for the coupons to catch up to the market. Ulysses contract: if yields get to 7% again I'm going to lay the wood to these like my dad should have done in the 80's.

Does anyone have Pat Dorsey's recent letters/a good idea of his returns? I see whale wisdom has him ranked highly, based on analyzing top 10 13F positions and equal weighting them (which is probably not a horrible approximation for his strategy). Thanks in advance.

What do you think of this statement? "As a retail peon, I should buy no fixed income until I have exhausted my annual limit each year of both series I and series ee savings bonds." A 3.5% nominal with a 20 year term, tax deferred and exempt from state taxes, is still pretty good, no?

I bot a googl. Just a teeny nibble. CAPE might be going to 8.

SPY. Testing period in value + trend account. aaaaaand I'm out.

More SMG

Ahh ok, yeah I've just noted it in his top performers list a bunch, but IDK about the IRRs either. I still rank him among the best of these guys as far as his individual/company ideas (not shorting meme stocks or thematic, macro/gold stuff).

In fairness he has crushed it with Greenbrick as far as I know.

Thanks!

Thanks for pulling that history together. Would love to hear them answer a question about that. GHC starts handing out options to the son in law who begins rolling up sub-scale tech businesses. MKL starts publishing goals for insurance premiums written. BOC launches a new fund raising initiative/SPAC ~monthly. My list of potential berk-alikes is currently at or around zero.

I do see the banking your own land side of the argument. When they (NVR DFH and converts) talk about not owning the land "in a public vehicle" and highlighting more predictable earnings through the cycle (even including GFC) that doesn't scream out 100% rational to me. I would rather have the lumpy 15% than the smooth 8% or whatever. It also kind of reminds me of an off balance sheet financing or other more opaque structure, like if the economics of the land portion don't work it's not sustainable just because you shifted it off your balance sheet into a fund you manage or to partners, but I suppose the land bankers could have lower return requirements (not sure how that makes sense if it's so risky). I guess building vertical is higher skill than assembling land in most circumstances and perhaps returns should follow. The problem is probably the mentality and empire building that comes with banking your own land, when you're talking about a developer/builder, often just keep rolling the dice until they blow up.

I bought back half my DFH position Friday (I previously lightened up at $19). Great annual letter.